Roger Smith

JMA destroys almost everybody, it's a godzilla storm. I heard they just upgraded that model too. Interesting to see if it performs here (it would be slower, deeper and slightly further southeast than most other guidance) http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php?ech=120&mode=1&nh=1

FWIW the JMA has a slower evolution to a deep low near Nantucket (972 mb by 00z Wed). It's a similar evolution to the most recent Euro but slower by at least 6h. Significance may be a tick slower for model consensus, would not buy into the timing but the track and intensity look great for 20-30" snowstorm. Will see if the 06z GFS is moving any closer to the Euro again, the models have more or less flip-flopped in terms of which ones are inland and which ones are coastal. NYC potential at the moment is in a very wide range (3-20), further up the river, more like 6-24. Snow from earlier event will chill the boundary layer which is one reason why an inland runner seems unlikely, at least inland west of Fall River to Chatham MA.

FWIW the JMA has a slower evolution to a deep low near Nantucket (972 mb by 00z Wed). It's a similar evolution to the most recent Euro but slower by at least 6h. Will see if the 06z GFS is moving any closer to the Euro again, the models have more or less flip-flopped in terms of which ones are inland and which ones are coastal. NYC potential at the moment is in a very wide range (3-20), further up the river, more like 6-24. Snow from earlier event will chill the boundary layer which is one reason why an inland runner seems unlikely, at least inland west of Fall River to Chatham MA.

Will likely be a tune up for the Monday event, 1.5 to 3.0 potential at most. Monday-Tuesday could be 5-10 times that in some model scenarios. Seems like 1972-73 is calling, the message says "you need a warm March to beat me."

Anyone able to update us on the Korean model that had the super-bomb yesterday? My approach if I had to make a forecast now would be to take a weighted average of GFS, Euro and GEM, ignore the rest. The weight should be something like 40-30-20 in that order. On that basis you come up with a very nice solution, not quite as tucked or intense as Euro, at times a bit south of GEM, closer to land than GFS and 5 mb deeper too. Let's say a 978 mb low near the benchmark from an origin near ACY. It would perhaps cut back a bit on Euro QPF but would spread 15-25 inch snowfalls over most of the region. I wouldn't call that "my" forecast because it's just a paradigm approach, if the models diverge, then split the difference, they can't all be right but sometimes none of them is exactly right compared to the others. GEM at the moment is intermediate in nature to GFS/Euro so a second approach might be, go with the intermediate of the three but skew that slightly towards the one of the other two you trust more. Frankly I trust the GFS more than the Euro but I hope for the best for your sake. I don't want to be the only poster here to reach 50" on my season (it is child's play here).

3-5 take a break then 30-50. This is becoming like a fat man at an all you can eat buffet.

A good analogue may be March 3-4, 1960. Check out this map and the outcomes were high on the NESIS scale. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1960&maand=03&dag=04&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

The forecast was toast.

Once again, GFS-GEM-Euro equally weighted blend looks better than any of them individually. An intense version of that would be quite productive. Think the blended track would be ideal for most. I suppose it's usually the case that one model wins out over the others, but maybe in this case they would all move to a compromise solution with track across the benchmark and into western Gulf of Maine. Let it loop or stall there.

1717 ... 1888 ... 2059 ... you'll just be 78 which will be like 55 today.

Here's a list to aim for a top finish ... 3.3" gets to 60%, 4.4" to 66.7%, 5.1" to 70% and 6.8" secures second place at 75.6%. To pass 1997-98 will require 22.1" (the blizzard of 1888 or equivalent) ... Most in this list accumulated most of Mar-Apr in March but a few were mostly April (1981-82, 1937-38, 1914-15 and 1923-24 in particular). 1966-67 was about 34% and below the thresh-hold value of 35% to make this list (I set it at 35% expecting to get a top twenty so bonus ranks below that). This shows the strong March snowfall climatology especially for poor producers some of which made the list, others like 1931-32 did not (0.6" of 5.3" was only 11.3%). 1972-73 was almost done before March (a very mild one) began (0.2" of 2.8" was 7.1%). 2011-12 had zero snow to add to its meagre total of 7.4" and set a record for Oct percentage for sure (39%), second best there was 1952-53 at 3.3% and 1925-26 was 2.7%. The only other winter that had a percentage was 1876-77 at 2% (unless one counted Oct traces as 0.05" then a few others would have some outcome and one could say that 1972 had 2.2%. TOP THIRTY-SIX NYC WINTERS for % TOTAL SNOWFALL in MARCH-APRIL Winter _____ Total snow __ MAR-APR __ % Mar-Apr 1997-98 ________ 5.5 _________ 5.0 ______ 88.9 1955-56 _______ 33.5 ________ 25.2 _____ 75.2 1991-92 _______ 12.6 _________ 9.2 ______ 73.0 1895-96 _______ 46.0 ________ 33.5 _____ 72.7 1889-90 _______ 24.4 ________ 17.4 ______ 71.3 1918-19 _________ 3.8 _________ 2.7 ______ 71.1 1914-15 ________ 28.8 ________ 17.9 ______ 62.2 1905-06 _______ 20.0 ________ 11.5 ______ 57.5 1915-16 ________ 50.7 ________ 28.8 _____ 56.8 1958-59 _______ 13.0 _________ 7.3 ______ 56.2 1913-14 ________40.5 ________ 21.5 ______ 53.1 1891-92 _______ 25.3 ________ 13.0 ______ 51.4 2018-19 _______ 20.5 ________ 10.4 ______ 50.9 1940-41 _______ 39.0 ________ 19.2 ______ 49.2 1887-88 _______ 45.5 ________ 22.2 ______48.8 1992-93 _______24.5 _________11.9 ______ 48.6 1874-75 _______ 56.4 ________ 27.3 ______ 48.4 2006-07 _______ 12.4 _________ 6.0 ______ 48.4 1943-44 _______ 23.8 ________ 11.3 ______ 47.5 1983-84 _______ 25.4 ________ 11.9 ______ 46.9 1959-60 _______ 39.2 _______ 18.5 ______ 47.2 1937-38 _______ 15.1 _________ 7.1 _______ 47.0 1980-81 _______ 19.4 _________8.6 _______ 45.3 1899-1900 ____ 13.6 _________ 5.9 _______43.4 1869-70 _______ 27.8 ________ 12.1 _______43.2 1923-24 _______ 27.5 ________ 11.6 ______ 42.2 1981-82 _______ 24.6 ________ 10.3 ______ 41.7 1927-28 _______ 14.5 __________5.7 ______ 39.3 1951-52 _______ 19.7 __________7.4 ______ 37.6 2014-15 _______ 50.3 ________ 18.6 ______ 37.0 1957-58 _______ 44.7 ________ 16.1 ______ 36..2 1879-80 _______ 22.7 _________ 8.3 ______ 36.1 1906-07 _______ 53.2 ________ 19.1 ______ 36.0 1916-17 ________ 50.7 ________ 18.2 ______35.9 1979-80 _______ 12.8 __________4.6 ______ 35.9 1998-99 _______ 12.7 _________ 4.5 ______ 35.4

Made the point in the other storm thread that currently a blend of GFS, Euro and GEM looks better than any of them alone, has a good track for 13th-14th. Maybe they will converge on that, a track something like HAT to Benchmark to western Gulf of Maine. I think there's still a bit of hope for Saturday (or Friday night) but only looks like a 2 to 5 inch sort of potential. The second storm has considerable potential. Blend of models for the win on that (or Korean which I read about but haven't seen).

06z GFS taking baby steps towards a good solution for (Monday 13th into) Tuesday 14th. No blockbuster low but a fairly good track from TN to e of VA to about 38N 68W. Drops to 990 mb. Has the look of a 3-6 inch event for large sections of NE. You can build from this towards a stronger storm. An equally weighted blend of Euro, GEM and GFS actually has a better storm than any of the three, would be something like 988 mb at the benchmark by 03-06z 14th. Go model blend! Future track of that would also be better, slowly moving north into Gulf of Maine.

The files in the thread have been updated to show Jan-Feb 2023 and winter 2022-23 values where needed. It was a very mild winter at NYC with only 2.2" snow to date; Toronto has had its sixth mildest winter but snowfall picked up at times and the totals are closer to long term averages. The excel files have also been updated. Due to size limits, I cannot post those here, but they are on the parallel Net-weather thread. To navigate to the excel files, follow this link: http://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/4/

Hey great now the GFS crushes on Thursday 16th !!! in Newfoundland. ax to head emoji

Feb 2023 has replaced eight record high daily means (for weeks ending 13th-20th) and the mean max was a new record for six (weeks ending 15th-20th) while the mean min was a new record for just four (13th-16th) ... 1984 held on to three ending 17th-19th and 1981 held on to week of 14th-20th. At either end of this streak there were a few second or third place finishes too. Details are in the thread (scroll back to page one, Feb records). This adds to the five new weekly record high daily means ending Jan 2 to 6 to give 2023 a total of 13 (out of 66 it could hold). At random it should have 0.3 !

The Euro storm is a monster, it just fills slowly almost in place, if you could get it to follow a track 50 miles more out to sea ... wow. But I realize it's very hypothetical. The thing about the GFS is, forecast error at 96h is a lot smaller than at 192h. I notice in my routine forecasting in Europe that the GFS is taking a different approach from the other models too, tracking a low further north within 48h across Ireland and the UK. Makes a big difference to snow potential there. I'll report which model(s) got this right some time within next two days, if this model disparity doesn't disappear.

So do you want the weekend GFS, the midweek Euro, or ... ... both (heh heh) ??

Just saw the 192h Euro, it keeps going with the 12z evolution and parks a 982 mb low over Salem MA. 850s look good, warm seclusion look. 20-30 incher without seeing the snowfall maps.

Weatherfella, and anyone interested in 1956 storm, as your recollection is from n NJ these are the NYC daily data from 16th to 19th March 1956 ... date ____ MAX __ MIN __ PREC __ SNOW 16th ____ 33 ____ 22 ____ 0.90 ____ 6.2 17th ____ 33 ____ 20 ____ 0.05 ____ 0.5 18th ____ 30 ____ 21 ____ 0.38 ____ 3.8 19th ____ 26 ____ 23 ____ 0.78 ____ 7.8 ======== It was a great run of cold and snowy months of March, other than 1957 which even so managed 2.5" snowfalls on 1st and again Apr 4th, then 1958 had 4.1" 14th and 11.8" 20th-21st, 1959 had 5.5" 12th, and 1960 had 14.5" 3rd-4th. Some of these storms may have been heavier in New England too.

Just wondering if weatherfella could confirm this, from the maps, in 1956 storm 1 developed off the coast around Friday March 16th and dropped snow Friday night into Saturday morning, storm 2 developed on night of Sunday 18th- Monday 19th, The gap between peak of storms was 48 to 54 hours. Does that match what you recall? Map for Monday 19th below, you can navigate back through the sequence. Both coastal lows were transfers from inland lows and did not develop over the southeastern U.S. ... the first one actually looks stronger on the maps but I'm not sure where exactly weatherfella was in 1956, think I know where he lives now (se MA?). http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1956&maand=03&dag=19&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

The King gave the word ... great were the multitude of the preachers.

This could be the most important 00z model run of the lifetimes of anyone born since 11 p.m. Friday.

Most of the significant historic March storms were coastal lows from the southeastern US, not coastal redevelopers. That includes 1888, 1914, 1956, 1958, 1960, also Apr 2-3 1915. I found one that was more similar to what's being suggested for next weekend, and that was March 22-23 1967. Coastal redevelopment was working with an antecedent record cold high in that case. Similar comment for Apr 5-7 1982.

Since it was discussed earlier, 1888 maps exist and could be considered broadly reliable given the grid of weather obs then available across North America and probably numerous ship reports in the Atlantic. Here's a link to Mar 4, 1888. From this you can navigate day by day to the time of the blizzard 11th-13th. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1888&maand=3&dag=4&uur=1800&nmaps=24&h=1 This is a brief summary of events: MAR 4 a strong arctic high is located near Ontario-Manitoba border. New England in a northerly flow behind departing low pressure near Newfoundland. Most of northern US covered by east to northeast flow from the 1045 mb high. MAR 5 Not much change, a weak low appears over Georgia. West coast appears to be in a moderately deep trough with low pressure q.s. near nw WA. MAR 6 All features slightly weaker again, but flow essentially unchanged. The weak GA low is suppressed to a position near northern Bahamas. MAR 7 As the low over western Atlantic continues to drift east, the northerly flow over New England develops a trough and the mid-continent ridge continues a slightly retrograde motion. Low pressure forming over Nevada as the Pacific milder air masses continue to be prevented from entering Pac NW or BC by easterly outflow from the SK-ND ridge (center of high has retreated to arctic source central n Canada to n Greenland). MAR 8 The mid-continent ridge splits to form a discrete 1035 mb high near Wisconsin. The trough in New England begins to fill slowly. Western low pressure around 995 mb near central-southern CO. Cool east-northeast flow into GOM. MAR 9 The arctic high now close to BUF, western low moving slowly east with an inverted trof to southern Manitoba. Has the look of a 1-3" snow event for western Lake Superior and Wisconsin regions. Any nucleus of eventual blizzard is probably east of BRO as 1005 mb wave at most. MAR 10 Arctic high crests over New England at about 1035 mb. Low moves to near Chicago at about 1008 mb. Still not much development in GOM or east of FL. MAR 11 Rapid development as GL low deepens to near 1000 mb east of Lake Huron (18z) and GA-SC low starts to form. By 06z 12th, GL low has moved to eastern shore Hudson Bay and the southeastern US low has moved to east of Cape Hatteras at about 1000 mb. MAR 12 Coastal low undergoes rapid intensification east of Delmarva to south of Long Island, likely around 970 to 975 mb by about 18z and 970 mb by 00z 13th, south of Nantucket. 1035 mb high near northern Lake Huron. MAR 13 Slowly filling low plods northeast past Cape Cod then east to east-southeast into 14th. (the outcome is well known of course, note that both NYC and Toronto had record low temperatures after the storm moved away, so this was pretty much the perfect evolution of bombing coastal low interacting with severe cold highs both ahead and following)