Roger Smith

Yes, you'll find net-weather to be very similar, even the graphics program is similar. If anything, it's a larger forum than this one. The link to it is here: http://www.community.netweather.tv and also if you want to visit an Irish weather forum, there is one on boards.ie, which is an all-subject public forum for the Irish internet community. You can find the weather forum in the science area under topics.

First look at anomalies and projections ... ____________________________DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA (11th) ____ (anom 10d) ____+0.8 _+2.5 _+4.0 __+3.0 _+6.7_+12.2___+4.2 _+1.3 _-4.7 (21st) ____ (anom 20d) ____-0.5 _-0.2 _+1.7 __ +1.3 _+2.9 _+6.4 ___+0.1 _ -1.6 _-4.9 (11th) ____ (p anom 20d) __ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+3.0_ +7.0 ___ +1.5 _ 0.0 _ -2.5 (11th) ____ (p anom 27d)__+0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.5 _+2.0 _+5.0 ___+1.5 _ 0.0 _ -1.0 (21st) ____ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 _-0.8 __0.0 ___-1.0 _+1.5 _ +4.0 ___ -1.0 _-1.5 _-3.0 (28th) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.5 _-1.0 __+1.0___-2.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ___-1.5 _-0.5 _-3.5 ( 1st Jan) _ anomalies ____ -1.6 _-0.6 _ +1.6 ___-1.4 _ +0.2 _+1.7 ___-1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2 _______ (11th) _ After a rather mild start in the east, central regions, colder at times to 20th, bringing anomalies closer to normal. The deep cold in the Pac NW region may gradually flip to a somewhat milder pattern. The projections 21st to 27th are mainly based on persistence of trends 11th-20th. (21st) _ Much colder for several days in central and eastern locations, but a milder trend after 26th may partially offset the changes. Turning milder in the Pac NW so the current anomalies will be shaved down a bit. (28th) _ Tweaked the projections based on latest actual anomalies and guidance. ( 1st Jan _ all scoring updated )

Odd isn't it that Feb 15 was close to all-time record cold for winter months and then Dec 15 was the opposite, followed by a top class snowstorm in Jan 16, Here's a factoid for Don and other climate buffs, locally it was the coldest November since 1985. Seems to be evolving into a similar December for us, it remained rather cold but came up almost to the December normal value. I don't know if 1985-86 is much of a winter analogue in your area, I recall what it was like in Ontario, very cold around Christmas 85 then a lot of rather boring near-average weather without a lot of snow for that region. A very warm March followed.

"White Juan" as we called it in the great white north, coming five months after Hurricane Juan hit Halifax hard in 2003. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2004&maand=2&dag=20&uur=000&var=1&map=2&model=noaa Feb 19-20 2004 massive blizzard in Nova Scotia, PEI and parts of NL. Wikipedia article on it here: http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Juan

NYC _ 44.4" EWR _ 46.2" MMU_ 50.1" ISP __ 53.5" SWF _ 60.0" There will be some big storms this winter, and I won't claim the prize if second wants to have that dinner unless it's at the Flying Steamshovel Pub in Rossland BC that I can reach on foot (register your whereabouts with local police just to be on the safe side) ...

Table of forecasts for 2022-23 winter snowfall contest * (in table) I made an executive decision for Scotty Lightning who only checks in occasionally and may not have seen my p.m., have added his forecasts to values in the Nov 30th post as his BUF prediction (45") was almost the same as what had already fallen (37") (a lot of snowfall contests run Dec 1 to Mar 31 so that might be what he was thinking -- it would be extraordinary if BUF had only 8" of snow in meteorological winter). I also added the rather small values that had already fallen at some other locations. Also wxallannj you're welcome to post a forecast, if it arrives soon I will include it, there isn't that much happening yet. Let's say deadline is whenever snow starts falling in any significant quantity. Forecasts are listed in descending order of DCA predictions. Consensus is median value. (later) Scotty eventually confirmed that he wanted to add the amounts already measured before contest deadline. Highest station forecasts are in bold type and lowest are underlined. FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV BKViking ________________________ 25.0 _52.0 _ 60.0 __ 38.0 _50.0 _90.0 __ 60.0 _18.0_ 90.0 Roger Smith _____________________22.2 _44.4 _ 55.5 __ 55.5 _66.6_133.0 __ 52.0 _15.9 _ 88.8 RJay _____________________________20.0 _50.0 _ 65.0 __ 31.0 _27.0 _ 86.0 __ 50.0 _15.0 _ 80.0 wxdude64 _______________________19.5 _40.0 _ 58.5 __ 42.8 _50.5 _101.0 __ 41.6 _ 8.7 _ 104.0 so_whats_happening ____________ 18.0 _38.0 _ 64.0 __ 45.0 _380_ 110.0 __ 42.0 _11.0 _ 84.0 Scotty Lightning*_________________16.0 _23.0 _ 33.0 __ 44.1 _37.5 _ 81.9 __ 65.9 _ 5.9 _ 84.0 ___ Consensus ___________________16.0 _40.0 _ 55.5 __ 44.1 _49.9 _ 93.7 __ 50.0 _ 8.2 _ 90.0 Tom _____________________________ 14.2 _ 41.1 _ 49.6 __ 53.9 _49.9 _ 93.7 __79.2 _ 6.7 _ 81.2 hudsonvalley21 __________________13.2 _ 29.3 _ 46.2 __ 42.8 _44.0 _90.0 __ 48.7 _ 8.2 _ 96.3 George001 _______________________12.0 _62.0_105.0__ 65.0 _70.0_140.0__60.0 _ 8.0_ 130.0 DonSutherland1 __________________10.0 _36.0 _ 55.0 __ 45.8 _52.5 _ 95.0 __ 44.0 _ 7.0_ 100.0 RodneyS _________________________ 7.4 _ 33.0 _ 50.0 __ 44.0 _48.0 _ 93.0 __ 46.0 _ 7.0 _ 98.0 actual snowfall to Dec 26, 2022 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 ___4.3 __ 7.5 __100.0 ___16.8 _ 5.8 _ 17.4 (DCA and NYC have both had traces) .

Last call for edits or new posts on the snowfall contest. Table to be prepared Wed 7th, let's say 12z 7th deadline. Scotty Lightning if you look in, clarify BUF (and other forecasts) as the already-fallen amounts are to be counted in the forecasts so you're basically looking at a zero snowfall winter for BUF now to end. I will try a PM but I think last time I wanted to contact you, your box wasn't taking messages. (later edit _ SL confirmed by p.m. that he would accept the adjustments).

Possible analogue would be 1968-69 which turned into a reasonably good winter for snow in parts of the northeast, don't think much happened before late December. It has been extremely cold at my location since that warm spell abruptly ended in late October. I don't think we've had an above normal day since then, and the only precip has been straight snow, no mixed crap like we almost always get around here in Nov-Dec. The end of 1968 into Jan 1969 was equally cold in this region.

Table of forecasts for December 2022 FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ________ -0.4 __-1.3 __-1.2 __ -2.1 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___+0.3 _+0.5 _-2.2 DonSutherland1 _______ -0.8 __-1.0 __-0.8 __ -4.3 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.8 _-4.2 wxallannj ______________ -0.8 __-1.0 __-1.2 ___-0.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _-1.5 Roger Smith ___________ -0.9 __-0.6 __-0.1 __-3.2 __-0.4 _+1.0 ___-4.5 _-3.3 _-4.8 so_whats_happening __ -1.0 __-1.2 __-1.5 ___-1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ -1.4 _+1.2 __ 0.0 Consensus _____________-1.0 _ -1.2 __ -1.1 ___ -2.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _-2.1 RodneyS _______________ -1.1 __-0.2 __+0.2 __-1.3 __-0.3 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+0.4 _-2.8 RJay ___________________ -1.5 __-1.5 __-1.5 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _-2.0 BKViking _______________-1.6 __-1.5 __-1.3 ___-1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ -0.8 _+1.0 _-0.3 Tom ____ (-1%) _________-1.8 __-1.9 __-1.5 __ -2.1 __ -0.5 _ +0.2 ___ -1.1 _+0.6 _+0.1 wxdude64 _____________-1.9 __-1.6 __-1.1 ___-3.6 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -4.2 George001 ____________-1.9 _ -2.3 __-2.5 __ -3.1 __+0.8 _+1.3 ___ -5.0 _-3.8 _-4.6 __________________________________________ Forecasts are color coded for warmest and coldest. Normal is colder than all forecasters for IAH. Extreme forecasts and best forecasts will be determined and awarded both "all in" and among annual forecasters as is the usual practice late in the year. Welcome to George001, and good luck everybody.

99 inches of snow in my call, 99 inches of snow, if one of those inches happens to fall, there'll be 98 inches of snow for you all ...

All scoring for November and annual contests now updated. Looks like an exciting finish to the contest.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 -3.2 -0.4 +1.0 -4.5 -3.3 -4.8 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 22.2 44.4 55.5 55.5 66.6 133.0 52.0 15.9 88.8

Well the contest is not quite settled despite the latest provisionals adding a bit to the lead of RodneyS, and it looks like at least a three-person race with perhaps the chase pack with an outside chance, it would take a forecast well separated from those of the leaders to get much of a jump on them. You can easily figure this out, I suppose, but if you go consistently 1 F deg warmer or colder at various stations and you're correct in your trend, you can pick up 180 points in total, so if you were let's say 540 behind you would need to be correct about a 3 F differential (and hope all three leaders had similar forecasts to pass them all). I am a bit more than 900 behind so it doesn't matter what I do this month. I have posted provisional scoring for November and annual contests, and will try to update those to more accurate estimates on the 29th so if you want to know where you stand, have a look on the 30th and see if that changed from the estimates that are posted now. So as always, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations (relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline Thursday Dec 1st, 06z) _ late penalties apply after that. Also we'll see if there's interest in predicting winter snowfall for these nine locations (three replace warm weather locations above) DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 1.1 ___ 2.5 ___ 36.9 ____10.9 __ 0.9 __ 3.0 (amounts so far to Nov 30) ... The above amounts should be included in your forecasts, plus what you foresee after you post to end of the winter snowfall season. I realize BUF has had a lot already but that really doesn't change the challenge of predicting the rest of the winter there. Last time I looked DEN had seen about 10 inches in November and the other locations are either at smaller amounts or yet to start their seasons. There won't be much of a deadline on this snowfall contest but try to get your entry in by 5th of December at latest so I can make up the table. Also a belated happy Thanksgiving. We do that in early October up here so it's just Black Friday for us (and that's new around here too). And Advent. Happy holidays in general. (Note, anyone is welcome to enter either of these, and you don't have to submit a temperature forecast entry to enter the snowfall contest) (I will be asking you who are regular participants how you feel about continuing on with the contest in 2023 -- I am willing to keep doing what I do now for at least one more year, eventually I will age out of this weather forum entirely though, if the powers that be tolerate my presence that much longer)

Thanks, these of course will be updated at end of month and I am posting the final month of the contest now. Will offer a snowfall contest again.

In theory, this approach is not the only possible answer, although it is of course one possible answer (to the question, how could we improve long-range forecasting towards being an exact science? and if so, over what time scale?) Another possible route is to develop theory that actually works (always what scientists are actually doing, your suggestion is more of an engineering/technological solution). If we don't have such a theory today, we could have one in the future. Why do people believe in the theory of gravitation? Because it works. With the refinements made in special relativity (applying to situations with higher velocities) the theory has been shown to give accurate results. Why does it work? Nobody really knows that, it is based on an equation which described a theory, and that equation gave accurate results. There could be such equations hidden away out of our current sight or knowledge, that would help us to make better long-range forecasts. Even so, those equations might not maintain enough accuracy to keep generating good solutions very long intervals into the future. This is, of course, more or less what you're talking about too, except that the equations would be based on an assumption which is not necessarily needed in theoretical physics, that the energy for weather events of the future is already in the atmospheric system. If the energy is not already in the system, then it has to come from some other place, in theory, those places could be the oceans, the earth's crust or core, the solar system magnetic field that surrounds the atmosphere, the Sun, or deep space. But if the super-computers you describe are only tasked with finding energy in more and more detail in the current atmosphere, then no matter how good they are, they won't give the results sought, because the energy just isn't there now, so how could they possibly predict what might happen once the energy already present has fully dissipated? (something that might take ten days, a month, some part of a year, depends on what kind of energy, but very little of it could survive much beyond a month). My theory and therefore my research approach is to assume that the energy comes from beyond the atmosphere. That might make it subject to theoretical prediction, although at the same time that could just be another unpredictable random process we cannot model or predict. If we had good theory now, we could make accurate long-range forecasts for quite some time, perhaps not like a century or a thousand years, but certainly months or even years. It would be a quasi-permanent theoretical solution that might require continuous refinement to ensure it was not off track. It would be like a gravitational equation that depended on periodic measurements of the value of G (in physics, that is assumed to be a constant over long intervals). Either way, I think you're correct to assume it will take a lot of computing power and it will come decades in the future, unless I get my act together.

Four Seasons contest __ autumn 2022 portion _ Sep 2022, Oct 2022, Nov 2022 __ final outcome The table is arranged in order of total points for the entire contest. . ________________________WINTER __ Winter ____ SPRING _ Spring ____ SUMMER _ Summer ____ AUTUMN _ Autumn FORECASTER _________ TOTAL ___ Points _____ TOTAL __ Points _____ TOTAL ___ Points ______ TOTAL ____ Points ____ Contest Total RodneyS ________________ 1600 ______ 7 __________ 1868 _____ 5 ________1988 ______ 6 __________2012 ______10 _________ 28 Don Sutherland 1 ________1623 ______ 10 _________ 1962 _____ 7 ________1886 ______ 3 __________1836 ______ 6 __________ 26 __ Consensus ___________ 1513 ______ 3.5_________ 1865 _____4.9 _______1960 ______5.0_________ 1768 _______3.8 ________17.2 wxdude64 ______________ 1535 ______ 4 __________ 1820 ______ 4 ________1884 ______ 2 _________ 1838_______7 __________17 Roger Smith _____________ 1043 ______ 1 __________ 1413 _______1 ________2008 ______10 _________1776 ______ 4 __________16 wxallannj ________________1572 ______ 6 __________ 1646 ______ 1 _______ 2000 ______ 7 __________1570 ______ 1 __________15 Tom _____________________ 1309 ______ 1 __________ 1973 _____ 10 ________1880 ______ 1 __________1740 ______ 3 __________15 so_whats_happening ____ 1499 ______3 __________1770 _______3 _______ 1960 ______ 5 __________1252 (2/3)__ 1 __________12 hudsonvalley21 _________ 1540 ______ 5 __________ 1692 ______ 1 _________1920 ______ 4 _________1580 ______ 1 __________11 BKViking ________________ 1467 ______ 2 ___________1762 _______2 ________1846 ______ 1 _________ 1800 ______ 5 _________ 10 RJay ____________________ 1351 ______ 1 ___________ 1952 ______ 6 ________1872 _______ 1 _________1350 ______ 1 __________ 9 __Normal ________________ 1173 _______1 ___________1630 _______1 ________ 1762 ______ 1 _________1683 ______ 2.6 ________5.6 Scotty Lightning _________ 1138 ______ 1 ___________1750 _______ 1 ________1878 ______ 1 _________ 1616 ______ 2 __________5 Stormchaser Chuck ______ 674 (1/3) __0 _________ 1117 (2/3) __ 1 ________1176 (2/3) _ 1 _________ 1185 ______ 1 __________ 3 ============================================ Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. Consensus and Normal can score decimal points if their totals are between two forecaster totals 2 to 10, and the decimal is based on the position relative to those forecasters. It was a very close finish quite similar to the annual contest with RodneyS just edging out DonSutherland1. Congrats to both of them, I've done better in this contest format because all my low scores were in the winter and spring portions which is where I got so far behind on points.

=== <<<<< _______ Annual Scoring Report (Jan - Nov 2022) __________>>>>> === Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. RodneyS has extended his lead while wxdude64 has moved into second place with DonSutherland1 close behind at third. Unfortunately so_whats_happening was unable to enter November and dropped from fourth to eighth. Consensus therefore moves up one rank to the gap between 3rd and 4th. Tom, BKViking, wxallannj and hudsonvalley21 have moved up to occupy 4th to 7th, in so doing wxallannj has also moved past hudsonvalley21. Scotty Lightning (9th and virtually tied 8th) is now ahead of RJay who fell to 10th, and your host remains in 11th. Normal has moved ahead of Rjay to occupy the gap between 9th and 10th. Stormchaser Chuck's prorated score would still leave him in 12th. so_whats_happening now has a prorated score also, and that would rank third. I have added differentials to show how many points you would need to gain over the leader to catch up. An improvement by 1.0 F for all nine forecasts would yield a net of 90 points, so divide your differential by 90 to estimate how much of an improvement you would need in order to catch the leader (or by taking the difference in differentials, any other forecaster ahead of you). FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL (diff) RodneyS ________________814 _776 _662__2252__726 _892 _656__2274 _4526 __800 _888 _736__2424 ____6950 _ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 761 _821 _787 __2369__803 _813_ 634__2250_4619 __708 _832 _683 __2223 ____6842 (-108) DonSutherland1 ________ 854 _834 _770__2458__802 _756 _564__2122 _4580 __610 _844 _774 __2228 ____6808 (-142) ___ Consensus ___________772 _806 _750__2328__774 _772 _584__2130 _4458__744 _824 _711 __2279 ____6737 (-213) Tom _____________________ 777 _827 _717 __2321__778 _769 _679__2226 _4547 __771 _723 _588 __2082____6629 (-321) BKViking ________________ 754 _794 _708 __2256__720 _722 _554__1996 _4252 __796 _748 _708 __2252____6504 (-446) wxallannj ________________684 _752 _696 __2132 __738 _648 _562__1948 _4080 __780 _778 _750__2308____6388 (-562) hudsonvalley21 __________694 _778 _790 __2262__708 _730 _552__1990 _4252__ 674 _818 _606__ 2098____6350 (-600) so_whats_happening (10)_644 _702 _698__2044__693 _718_560__1971 _4015 __ 664 _768 _744 __2176 ____6191 (-759) Scotty Lightning _________728 _742 _700 __2170 __726 _702 _610__2038 _4208 __658 _784 _534__1976____6184 (-766) _____ Normal _____________758 _718 _610 __2086 __720 _734 _650 __2104 _4190 __605 _754 _562__1921____6111 (-839) RJay _____________________658 _710 _776 __2144__651 _704 _510__1865 _4009 __740 _630 _645 __2015____6024 (-926) Roger Smith _____________680 _650 _476 __1806 __594 _642 _558__1794 _3600 __818 _804 _767__2389____5989 (-961) Stormchaser Chuck (8/11)_499_527 _479 __1505 __462 _559 _355 _1376 _2881 __432 _510 _329 __1271____ 4152 __ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 5710 total points. __ __ and so_whats_happening would compare at 6810 total points. ========================================= __ Best Forecasts __ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total RodneyS ______________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ___3 ___ 3___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2*___2__ Sep,Oct wxdude64 ____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1__ Jan DonSutherland1 _______5**^__3 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____4____1 ____2__ Feb,May ___ Consensus ________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ 0 Tom ___________________ 1^ __ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 1 __ Mar BKViking ______________ 3*^__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0___ 0 ___ 1__ Nov wxallannj ______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 2*___2 ___0 hudsonvalley21 _______ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*___0 so_whats_happening __ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1__ Jul Scotty Lightning _______2**__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ Normal _____________3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 RJay ___________________1^___ 0 ___ 3*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1__ Apr Roger Smith ___________1 ___ 3 ___ 1*___2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 6*___ 2 ___2*___ 5*___ 2__Jun, Aug Stormchaser Chuck ___2 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked. (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 70 of 99 forecasts qualify, 28 warmest and 42 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3, Oct 3-4, Nov 0-4. FORECASTER __________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _Oct _Nov __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith ___________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 __ 18-5 (16-5) RodneyS _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 _ 2-0 _ 1-0 __13-2 (11.0-2) ____ Normal ____________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0_ 2-0 _ 1-0 __12-1 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 _ ---- __ 10-1 (9.5- 1) DonSutherland1 _______ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- __ 1-0 _ ---- __10-0 (8.25 - 0) RJay ___________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 7-1 (6.25 - 1) Tom ____________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- __ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) wxdude64 ______________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- _ --- _ ---- __ 5-0 (4.0 - 0) Scotty Lightning _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _---_ ----__5-0 (3.5 - 0) BKViking _______________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __3-0 (2.25 - 0) so_whats_happening __ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- _ ---- _---- __3-0 (2.5 - 0) hudsonvalley21 _________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ ---- __3-1 (2.0 - 1) wxallannj _______________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- _ --- _ ---- __3-2 (2.0 -1) =============================== (Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

Final scoring for November 2022 These scores are based on final anomalies as posted in the table above. IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA are scored from minimum progression (60, 54, 48 ... 12, 6, 0) with some values boosted by 2-4 points to account for actual differentials if they were within one or two tenths of the next higher progression value. Normal has raw score for IAH, and scaled adjusted scores for DEN, PHX and SEA. DEN has an odd situation for scoring in that one forecast (mine) was quite close to nullifying minimum progression and all the other forecasts would have scored in the range 00-20 on raw scores alone. However, I determined that the scores derived from the usual minimum progression rules did not impose any significant penalties on any of the higher scoring contenders and I tried to keep the differentials similar to what they had been with the raw scores. Given that I am well outside the scoring range for most forecasters on an annual basis, my own disadvantage in this application has no actual result for the contest outcome. FORECASTER ________________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL BKViking _____________________ 94 _ 90 _ 62 __ 246 __ 86 _ 92_ 60^__ 238 _484 _ 50^_ 36^_ 48^__134 ____ 618 RodneyS _____________________ 74 _ 88 _ 58 __ 220 __ 92 _ 88 _ 54^__ 234 _ 454 _ 40^_ 58^_ 60^__158 ____ 612 wxdude64 ___________________ 90 _ 94 _ 68 __ 252 __ 76 _ 96 _ 42^__ 214 _ 466 __ 22^_ 48^_ 54^__124 ____590 wxallannj _____________________ 82 _ 84 _ 98 __ 264 __ 82 _ 74 _ 36^__ 192 _ 456 _ 28^_ 18^_ 48^__094 ____550 ___ Consensus _______________ 90 _ 88 _ 86 __ 264 __ 72 _ 74 _ 32^__ 178 _ 442 _ 34^_ 36^_ 30^__100 ____ 542 DonSutherland1 ______________ 94 _98 _ 76__ 268 __ 48 _ 96 _ 28^__ 172 _ 440 _ 10^_ 42^_ 40^__ 092 ____ 532 Roger Smith __________________ 76 _ 62 _ 72 __ 210 __ 44 _ 72 _ 32^__ 148 _ 358 _ 60^_60^_ 30^__150 ____ 508 Tom __________________________ 90 _ 88 _ 86 __ 264 __ 62 _ 72 _ 12^__ 146 _ 410 _ 50^_ 28^_ 10^__088 ____ 498 hudsonvalley21 _______________ 70 _ 80 _ 88 __ 238 __ 48 _ 88 _ 22^__ 158 _ 396 _ 16^_ 36^_ 18^__070 ____466 Scotty Lightning ______________68 _ 62 _ 34 __ 164 __ 78 _ 82 _ 52^ __ 212 _ 374 _ 54^_ 18^_ 16^__088 ____ 464 ___ Normal ____________________48 _ 42 _ 14 __ 104 __ 58 _ 52 _ 68 __ 178 _ 282 _ 57^ _ 44^_ 26^__ 127 ____409 StormchaserChuck! __________ 52 _ 58 _ 86 ___196 __ 72 _ 48 _ 00 __ 120 _ 316 _ 16^_ 00 _ 04^__020 ____ 336 RJay __________________________52 _ 08 _ 46 __ 106 __ 02 _ 68 _ 06^__ 076 _ 182 _ 34^_ 06^_ 26^__066 ____248 __________________________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL each finished close enough to consensus that no extreme forecasts scored higher than third. ORD and ATL narrowly missed qualifying as a win-loss situation but third coldest forecast took high score (ORD, tied ATL). IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA are all wins for coldest forecasts, from BKViking (IAH), Roger Smith (DEN, PHX) and RodneyS (SEA). Normal also scores a win for IAH. =========

I found some data for Fort Erie, ON which is across the border from Buffalo. The period Jan 26 to 31 1977 had these snowfalls (measured in inches, my source has converted them to cm, Canada went metric the next year though) ... A lot of snow fell there, whether it was from the sky or the lake this is what was reported along with max and min temps to show how frigid the blizzard period was ... Date ____________ Snow (in) ____ Max (F) __ Min (F): 26th Jan 1977 _____ 7.0 _________ 21 _______ 15 27th Jan 1977 ____ 11.0 _________ 20 ________ 4 28th Jan 1977 _____ 5.0 ________ 20 _________ 0 29th Jan 1977 ____ 12.0 ________ 11 _________-11 30th Jan 1977 _____ 4.0 ________ 10 _________ -8 31st Jan 1977 ______4.0 ________ 17 __________ 3 ____________________ 43.0" total _ 16.5 _______ 0.5 avg temps Light snowfalls continued for several days into Feb 1977 with gradually moderating temperatures. I would estimate there was 15 inches of snow on the ground when this began and as Don has mentioned it was an extremely cold month (and two month interval, the winter began to moderate in stages through Feb 1977). This event was accompanied by very strong winds, I don't have a specific number from this location but St Catharines A had gusts in the 40-50 mph range every day during this period. Snowfalls at that location (about 30 miles northwest near Lake Ontario) were only about 15 inches in total and snow depths were decreasing from snow depths at a rate suggesting that even that snow was being blown away by the strong winds. So that "Buffalo blizzard" had frigid temperatures and wind chills. I remember it was just sunny and cold most of that week in southern Ontario and Toronto sent a convoy of snow plows south to help out, whether it was in Fort Erie or Buffalo I don't recall.

Don or anyone able to find the data, surprised not to see any dates from late Jan 1977 (the infamous Buffalo blizzard) in that list, what were the amounts then? I remember seeing news stories (out of Buffalo as I lived in range of WBEN etc) talking about six feet of snow and the city cut off etc. Was it more of a wind factor with that, or do you find any missing days there (probably 26th-31st Jan and possibly 1st-2nd Feb). Maybe it evades the list by spreading out a lot of snowfall in 12" type amounts over five days? Looking at that list, I think the Jan 1902 and March 1936 storms were probably entirely synoptic and not lake effect (based on Toronto having similar record amounts on those days, and also inspection of historical weather maps), and the Jan 11 1982 storm was probably a mix of 6-8" of storm snowfall and subsequent lake effect.

Do the local governments around BUF place identifying poles on fire hydrants? They do that in some snowy areas in this country. Once there's a lot of snow on the ground and plows have made huge piles beside the roads, if there's a fire then these poles indicate to firefighters where to find a hydrant. Crews dig them out as soon as possible so the fire-fighters don't also have to do that. The poles are left behind though as wind could drift the snow back into the dugouts and it wouldn't be visually obvious where they were. I have seen a similar amount of snow once, in Jan 1976 a heavy squall band hit London, ON. I don't recall if any weather stations had the maximum amounts, the nearby airport was only about half as badly snowed in. Another very large dump of snow happened in the Georgian Bay snow belt in the week of Jan 26 to 31, 1971. I was about a hundred miles to the south of that one, but got fairly close to the maximum snowfall zone a few weeks later, most of it stayed on the ground until mid-March.

LOL, Buffalo Weather is getting snowstorms every six hours that would generate hundred-page threads on most forums.

Heaviest bands will likely shift north for part of Saturday as winds back to SSW ahead of trough due to impact the region Saturday night. Winds likely to increase steadily tomorrow and peak at 35-45 mph Saturday night. I realize having lived in a snow belt region once upon a time that winds inside these steady-state snow bands can be rather variable and you can get some boundary winds near the edges of them that are hard to model or predict. But on the larger scale, winds should become more of an issue tomorrow and Sunday. Looking at a recent satellite image which I have added (it will update so can be used by later readers, check time stamp), you will note the upper level trough in the western Lake Superior region, ahead of that winds will back to SSW then slowly return to WSW, becoming WNW after it passes (est 10 p.m. Sat for BUF). Notice also that Lake Erie is almost 100% covered by lake effect generating cloud mass, parts of western Lake Ontario remain cloud-free. http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_ecan_1070_100.jpg

This month could see a record differential between first and second half temperatures for November ... at NYC where the average drop is 5.6 deg in mean temperature (1-15 to 16-30 Nov), these are the top eight differentials: 1 __ 1880 ___ 20.1 (49.0 to 28.9) ___ 2022 (57.8 to ???) needs to average 37.6 to beat this 2 __ 1938 ___ 16.8 (56.7 to 39.9) ___ any second half 37.8 to 40.9 gives 2022 second place 3 __ 2008 ___ 16.0 (53.8 to 37.8) 4 __ 1888 ___ 15.9 (53.1 to 37.2) 5t__ 1903 ___ 15.0 (49.6 to 34.6) 5t__ 1936 ___ 15.0 (50.2 to 35.2) 7 __ 1974 ___ 14.8 (55.6 to 40.8) 8 __ 1929 ___ 14.5 (53.4 to 38.9) ___ a 2022 second half of 43.3 would tie with this final contender _____________________________________ Of these, only 1938 and 1974 had notably warm starts, although most including 1903 had a couple of warm days. In 1880 it was more of a change from variable near normal to extreme cold which then persisted (at least intermittently) for much of the winter that followed. Despite the warm start in 1975, that second half was still above normal and the drop was only 10.2 deg. As these are mean temperatures, it should be noted that even a small diurnal range around 6-8 deg would imply that mean maxima are 3-4 above the values discussed above.

What happens before a Buffalo snowstorm? They get a foot of snow.