Roger Smith

I have a full data table for NYC available over in the climate change forum for anyone who wants to download it, but for 1980s snowfalls greater than 3" over consecutive two day intervals here's what I see (I added 1990-91 to 1992-93): 1979-80 _ 3.5" Dec 19, 4.6" Mar 13-14 (3.6, 1.0), 1980-81 _ 4.9" Jan 6-7 (0.8, 4.1), 8.6" Mar 5 1981-82 _ 9.3" Jan 13-14 (5.8, 3.5), 9.6" Apr 6 1982-83 _ 3.0" Dec 12, 3.9" Feb 6-7 (2.5, 1.4), 17.6" Feb 11-12 (12.5, 5.1), 1983-84 _ 5.1" Jan 10-11 (3.4, 1.7), 4.6" Jan 18-19 (4.2, 0.4), 6.9" Mar 8-9 (1.8, 5.1), 3.3" Mar 28-29 (1.5, 1.8) 1984-85 _ 4.8" Dec 27, 4.1" Jan 17, 4.3" Feb 2, 5.7" Feb 5-6 (3.3, 2.4) 1985-86 _ 4.5" Feb 7-8 (4.3, 0.2), 4.5" Feb 11 1986-87 _ 8.1" Jan 22, 3.5" Jan 26, 4.2" Feb 23, 1987-88 _ 5.8" Jan 3-4 (1.8, 4.0), 5.2" Jan 8 1988-89 _ 5.0" Jan 6, 1989-90 _ 4.7" Nov 22-23 (0.3, 4.4), 3.1" Mar 6 1990-91 _ 7.2" Dec 27-28 (0.6, 6.6), 5.7" Jan 11, 8.9" Feb 26-27 1991-92 _ 6.2" Mar 19 and 3.2" Mar 22 1992-93 _ 3.4" Feb 12-13 (3.0, 0.4), 4.3" Feb 21, 10.6" Mar 13-14 (10.2, 0.4) If you recall an early snowfall it may be 1.1" on Nov 11, 1987. A very late snowfall was 0.8" on Apr 19, 1983 (a trace fell on Apr 23rd 1986). Some snowfalls that did not qualify but were perhaps greater away from NYC, 1.6" both Dec 23-24 1980 and Dec 22-24 1989, then 2.6" Dec 29, 1987, 2.0" Jan 5, 1980, 1.9" Jan 23, 1982, 2.4" Jan 21, 1991, 2.7" Jan 25-26 1988 (2.1, 0.6), 2.4" Feb 12, 1987, 1.8" Feb 25, 1990, 2.5" Mar 6, 1989.

People have been discussing Jan 1932, which is currently the top January at both NYC and Toronto by the way. There was a very deep trough over the west coast during the warmest part of that month (around now), while records were falling in the east, snow was falling at low elevations in Los Angeles, one of their rare measurable snowfalls near sea level was reported. The month (Jan 1932) was the tail end of a long stretch of anomalous warmth, Nov 1931 ranks quite high also, with a particularly warm spell around 18th to 23rd. Sep 1931 had a brutal heat wave in the second week, after a relatively warm summer. So the anomaly in Jan 1932 didn't come out of the blue. I had a look at some other Canadian data. Unfortunately few arctic Canada weather stations were up and running before 1945. Calgary AB had a relatively mild January, the only cold weather was during the interval around the Los Angeles snowfall, and the last four days of the month which was probably a precursor of the later shift in eastern regime which stayed mild in early February and transitioned to a cold March-April. Other than those two spells the temperature was indicative of weak chinook conditions that occur in patterns like the one we are now in, highs in the 5-10 C range rather than the 10-15 C of a strong high-amplitude ridge chinook. I think this indicates the western trough was a cutoff low over the desert southwest region much of the time. At Winnipeg MB it was relatively mild also, except for the last four days. Combined with Calgary, this would indicate an absence of strong arctic air mass penetration of any part of west-central southern Canada. The lowest temperature at Winnipeg before the colder last four days was -20 F which is not very cold for that location over snow covered ground. There was about 8" of snow during the colder mid-month spell which is a bit more than Calgary saw, while it was snowing in the southwestern U.S. Before that started though it was above freezing around the 11th-12th. There are some data for Cambridge Bay in the western arctic islands. Those show a fairly normal January (mostly -30s F) with deeper cold (-45 to -50 F) by end of the month. That cold intensified in February with the coldest reading of the winter -56F (-49C) on the 9th. Then on the east coast of Canada, Halifax had basically the same pattern as NYC, except that there were two or three occasions with indications of the storm track running between there and Boston, for example 9" of snow on the 10th, before the warm spell mid-month. Toronto while staying very mild almost all the time, started the month with a large dump of snow followed by a heavy rainfall. The month is also the wettest January for Toronto, mostly rain other than that first day event. Overall, I would picture the upper level regime as being a strong ridge near 70W, probably a cutoff low southeast of Newfoundland, and out west a cut off low near southern Nevada and a fast flow inland from the Pacific across southern Canada with confluence of subarctic and polar jet streams near Lake Superior. On the other hand, very mild Jan 1950 had a different component in the west, rather than the cutoff low, there was a strong full latitude trough full of record cold arctic air. Jan 1950 is the coldest month in weather records of any length for most locations west of Winnipeg. It was about 12 degrees below normal in most of Alberta and BC and holds all-time records that are far lower than second place values at many weather stations, also it had two or three cracks at those. The winter of 1950 was so severe that it destroyed the local fruit growing industry in several regions of inland southern BC and in some of those it never returned (orchards around Creston BC where the Kootenai River enters Canada from the US were wiped out, the damage done in the Okanagan valley further west was eventually overcome and that region now has all the fruit production). Prince George BC dropped to -50F in that spell and it was below -40 in most of Alberta. Snow and arctic cold extended out to the coast all month and Vancouver had its lowest reading of 0 deg F.

I see no reason for optimism for the rest of January, Feb 4-6 may be the period of change either towards or into a colder wintry setup but it may be a one-shot winter that warms up rapidly again after that one good interval. Colder air masses will probably show up in central Canada after about the 20th and edge slowly (too slowly for most) towards the interior northeast US, but a coastal storm track of any note seems unlikely before early February. As you know, a record high was tied recently with 1950 and that January was somewhat similar (although much colder in western interior regions). Another surge of warmth occurred around 25th and 26th of January that winter, then things improved slowly and the best winter synoptics were mid-Feb to mid-Mar. With the weaker stand by cold air this winter, I figure it may come in one brief shot. And with that warm pool to the east, its best chance of being operational may be the climatological peak of winter storm frequency, early to mid February.

Anomalies and projections after ten days ... ____________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA (11th) ____ (anom 10d) ____+11.3 _+11.9 _+8.0__+9.7 _+11.3 _+11.1 _ -3.7 _+0.5 _+3.6 (22nd) ___ (anom 21d) _____+8.5 _ +9.8 _+7.8__+11.0_ +9.2 _ +8.5 __-3.1 _-0.8 _+3.0 (11th) ____ (p anom 20d) __ +7.0 _ +7.5 _ +6.0 __+5.0 _+8.0 _ +7.5 __ 0.0 _+1.0 _ +2.5 (11th) ____ (p anom 27d) __ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +5.0 __+3.5 _+7.0 _ +6.0 __ 0.0 _+0.5 _ +2.0 (22nd) ___ (p anom 31d) __ +7.0 _ +7.5 _ +6.5 ___+7.0 _+8.0 _+6.0 __-3.0 _-1.0 _ +2.0 (1st Feb) _ (anomalies) ____ +7.7 _ +9.8 _ +7.9 __ +7.1 _ +6.9 _ +4.1 __ -6.7 _ -2.9 _ +0.7 _______________________________________________ (11th) _ After a very mild start, anomalies will be drifting back into contact with our higher forecasts. (22nd) _ There hasn't been much change yet, much colder air will be arriving late in the month for eastern and central locations but it can only shave a bit off these near-record anomalies by then. (11th) _ Snowfall totals from last report have increased just 1.3" at DEN, and 0.2" at ORD, DTW and BTV. Updated seasonal snowfall totals to January 31st... ________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV _________________Tr ____ Tr ___ 7.9" __ 14.2" __19.2" __116.3" __36.8" _ 5.8" _ 37.3" Given the outlook, I will just move the snowfall forecast table from Dec to Feb 2023 instead of bringing it in here; there may be some action for some of the lagging locations (all but BUF and DEN really) finally within a week or two.

Here are some cases where January was mild and snow-free, but either Feb or Mar (or both) produced snowfall. Notes on whether Jan was extending a snow drought or not also ... 1876 (12.5" + 3.8") __ only 2.5" snow to end of Jan (1.5" in Jan), despite some very cold weather in late NOV and first half DEC 1906 (6.0" +11.5") __ again only 2.5" snow to end of Jan (1.5" in Jan) 1916 (13.1"+25.5") __ 8.1" had fallen in Dec, just 0.7" in Jan. There was also 3.3" in Apr. 1933 (12.8" +4.8") __ 9.4" had fallen in Dec, Jan had only a trace. 1949 (10.7" + 4.2") __ 25.3" had fallen in Dec although it was often quite mild, and 1.8" fell in Jan. 1950 (8.5" + 1.4") __ 1.8" fell in Nov-Dec, and just 0.4" in a very mild Jan. 1967 (23.6" +17.4") _ 9.1" fell in Dec and 1.4" in Jan. 1975 (10.6" +0.3") __ 0.1" Nov and Dec each, 2.0" Jan. 1993 (10.7" +11.9") __ 0.4" Dec and 1.5" Jan. 1995 (11.6" + Tr) __ Traces Nov-Dec and 0.2" Jan 2006 (26.9" +1.3") _ 9.7" Dec and 2.0" Jan 2013 was fairly mild to 20th _ 12.2" Feb (mostly 8-9) and 7.3" Mar Of course other cases don't recover (much) including 1913, 1932, 1973, 2007 (3.8" + 6.0"), 2012 I have left out some more recent cases which people will recall anyway. It doesn't look that bad a signal for later snowfall to have a mild January, and of the list I produced, there are plenty of record highs some of which were quite late in the month. Jan 1906 had a very warm period all over eastern N America 21st to 24th, its records have fallen to later years including 1967 in some cases. I also see some encouraging looking shifts in circulation towards end of current GFS run.

The recent mild spell set a number of weekly records for weeks ending Jan 2 to Jan 7. The mean maximum was a new record high for weeks ending Jan 4-5 (in both cases, 57.56, 57.42), while the mean minimum was highest 2nd to 6th, values as high as 47.71 (Dec 30-Jan 5). The mean was also a record high for weeks ending 2nd to 6th (52.57 for Dec 29-Jan 5). Then for the week of Jan 1st to 7th, the averages were second highest to 2007. These new records or close approaches are shown in the tables, weeks ending Jan 1-6 are in the January lists although they contain various numbers of days from December. Years that lost records to 2022-23 include 1984-85 and 2004-05.

Files both here in the thread, and in the supporting excel documents, are updated (to end of 2022, I did not yet edit the Jan 4 tied record high at NYC into the thread, mention is made of it in the excel file). As the supporting excel files are too large to store on Am-Wx, you need to navigate over to Net-wx to find them here: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/4/#comments

Table of forecasts January 2023 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RJay ______________________+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.0 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________+3.8 _ +4.0 _ +4.2 __ +4.5 _ +3.9 _ +2.3 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+4.5 _ +4.6 _ +4.5 __ +5.0 _ +4.0 _ +3.2 ___ +1.8 _ +0.2 _ +2.0 wxallannj _________________+3.2 _ +3.5 _ +3.8 __ +4.7 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 ___ +1.5 _--0.5 _ +2.8 Tom ______________________+3.1 _ +2.9 _ +2.9 __ +3.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ____ +0.9 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 BKViking _________________+2.7 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +2.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.5 ___ +1.0 _ +0.2 _ +0.4 ___ Consensus ____________+2.7 _ +3.0 _ +3.0 __ +3.1 _ +1.6 _ +2.0 ___ +1.5 _ +0.5 _ +0.8 RodneyS _________________+2.6 _ +3.5 _ +3.5 __ +3.7 _ +1.6 _ +2.7 ___--0.3 _ --0.7 _ +0.3 wxdude64 ________________+2.2 _ +2.3 _ +2.5 __ +0.8 _ +1.3 _ +1.1 ___--0.4 _--0.3 _ +1.6 Roger Smith ______________+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ +4.0 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 so_whats_happening _____+2.1 _ +1.6 __ +1.9 __ +2.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.6 ___ +2.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.8 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 ___ Normal _________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 =========================================== Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is colder than all forecasts at DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH, and equal at SEA. Consensus is median or sixth ranked of eleven forecasts. Persistence (added Sep 2023 to start an annual tracking of persistence, last month's actual values (In this case, Dec 2022) ___________________________ -1.6 _-0.6 _ +1.6 ____-1.4 _ +0.2 _+1.7 ____-1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2

+2.2 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ +4.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5

=== <<<<< _______ Annual Scoring Report ( 2022 contest final report ) __________>>>>> === Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. RodneyS by winning December has also won the annual contest by 202 points over wxdude64 and 228 over DonSutherland1. No changes occurred in the rankings except that Normal moved ahead of 9th place Scotty Lightning. In terms of a pro-rated score for one missed forecast, so_whats_happening had the equivalent of 2nd place by a narrow margin. StormchaserChuck who entered eight contests was scoring at a slightly lower rate than 11th place. Will post some final thoughts on the contest year later on in a separate post. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL (diff) RodneyS ________________904 _868 _734__2506__824 _982 _742__2548 _5054 __834 _974 _828__2636 ____ 7690 _ 0 wxdude64 ______________ 851 _901 _833 __2585__859 _895_734__2488 _5073 __748 _904 _763 __2415 ____ 7488 (-202) DonSutherland1 ________ 938 _926 _822__2686__844 _844 _650__2338 _5024 __662 _922 _854 __2438 ____7462 (-228) ___ Consensus ___________860 _894 _796__2550__860 _856 _680__2396 _4946__802 _900 _789 __2491 ____7437 (-253) Tom _____________________ 874 _900 _755 __2529__863 _854 _748__2465 _4994 __854 _804 _622 __2280____7274 (-416) BKViking ________________ 854 _876 _750 __2480__818 _810 _ 636__2264 _4744 __874 _822 _750 __2446____7190 (-500) wxallannj ________________768 _844 _740 __2352 __820 _732 _656__2208 _4560 __832 _852 _816 __2500____7060 (-630) hudsonvalley21 __________770 _864 _834 __2468__794 _812 _652__2258 _4726__ 730 _902 _686__ 2318____7044 (-646) so_whats_happening (11)_732 _790 _736__2258__793 _802 _658__2253 _4511 __ 754 _838 _780 __2372 ____6883 (-807) _____ Normal _____________826 _806 _678 __2310 __792 _830 _716 __2338 _4648 __667 _848 _598__2113____ 6761 (-929) Scotty Lightning _________776 _810 _788 __2374 __778 _766 _704__2248 _4622 __700 _848 _550__2098____ 6720 (-970) RJay _____________________756 _792 _814 __2362__729 _800 _596__2125 _ 4487 __ 802 _704 _721 __2227____6714 (-976) Roger Smith _____________766 _750 _542 __2058 __658 _730 _644__2032 _4090 __866 _844 _835__2545____6635 (-1055) Stormchaser Chuck (8) _ 499_527 _479 __ 1505 __462 _559 _355 _1376 _2881 __ 432 _510 _329 __ 1271____ 4152 George001 _________(1) _ _ see DEC scoring __ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 6228 total points. __ __ and so_whats_happening would compare at 7509 total points. ========================================= __ Best Forecasts __ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total RodneyS _____________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ___3 ___ 4___ 2*___ 2 ___ 3 ___2*___3__Sep,Oct,Dec wxdude64 ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1__Jan DonSutherland1 ______5**^__3 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____4____1 ___2__ Feb,May ___ Consensus _______ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ 0 Tom __________________ 1^ __ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 1 __Mar BKViking _____________ 4*^__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0___ 0 ___ 1 __Nov wxallannj _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 2*___2 ___0 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___1*___2*___0 so_whats_happening _1*___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1__ Jul ___ Normal ___________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___3 ___ 1 ____0 ___0 Scotty Lightning _____ 2**__ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 RJay __________________1^___ 0 ___ 3*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1__ Apr Roger Smith __________1 ___ 4 ___ 1*___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 6*___2 ___2*___ 5*___2__Jun, Aug Stormchaser Chuck __2 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked. (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) In total, 73 of 108 forecasts qualify, 29 warmest and 44 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3, Oct 3-4, Nov 0-4, Dec 1-2. FORECASTER __________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _Oct _Nov _Dec __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith ___________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ 0-2 __ 18-7 (16-7) RodneyS _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 _ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 14-2 (12.0-2) ____ Normal ____________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0_ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 13-1 Stormchaser Chuck ____ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 _ ---- _ ---- __ 10-1 (9.5- 1) DonSutherland1 _______ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- __ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- _ 10-0 (8.25 - 0) RJay ___________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- ___7-1 (6.25 - 1) Tom ____________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___6-0 (4.75 - 0) wxdude64 ______________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___5-0 (4.0 - 0) Scotty Lightning _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _---_ ---- _ 1-0 ___ 6-0 (4.5 - 0) so_whats_happening __ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- _ ---- _---- _ 1-0 __ 4-0 (3.5 - 0) BKViking _______________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 3-0 (2.25 - 0) hudsonvalley21 _________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ ---- _ ---- __ 3-1 (2.0 - 1) wxallannj _______________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- __ 3-2 (2.0 -1) =============================== (Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

Thanks for these entries, feel free to adjust them by edit before the relaxed deadline of 12z Jan 3 this month. I will post mine later today, will p.m. anyone not in by 18z 2nd. Happy new year.

<<< === --- CONTEST FINAL RESULTS --- === >>> Congrats to cheese007 with a close win over Torch Tiger (2nd) and Hotair (3rd) FORECASTER _____________NS _ Hur _ Maj _ Score deductions __ TOTAL SCORE Outcome ___________________14 __ 8 __ 2 cheese007 __________________15 __ 7 __ 2 _____ -0.5 _ -1.0 __ 0.0 __ 98.5 (1) Torch Tiger _________________ 16 __ 8 __ 3 _____ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 __ 97.5 (2) Hotair _______________________13 __ 6 __ 2 ______-0.5 _ -3.0 __ 0.0 __ 96.5 (3) cnimbus ____________________ 17 __ 7 __ 3 _____ -3.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 __ 95.0 (4) tplbge ______________________ 17 __ 6 __ 3 _____ -3.0 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ___93.0 (5) snowlover2 _________________ 18 __ 8 __ 3 _____ -5.0 __ 0.0 _ -1.0 ___ 94.0 (6) "Expert consensus" _________18 __ 8 __ 4 _____ -5.0 __ 0.0 _ -3.0 ___ 92.0 (7) jaxjagman __________________ 18 __ 9 __ 4 _____ -5.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ___ 91.0 (7) NCForecaster89 ____________19 __ 8 __ 4 _____ -7.5 __ 0.0 _ -3.0 ___ 89.5 (8) Wannabehippie ____________ 19 __10 __ 3 _____ -7.5 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ____ 88.5 (9) ___ Contest mean __________ 19 __ 9 __ 4 _____ -7.5 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ____ 88.5 (9) GaWx _______________________18 __ 9 __ 5 _____ -5.0 _ -1.0 _ -6.0 ___ 88.0 (t10) StormchaserChuck! ________ 17 __ 11 __ 4 _____ -3.0 _ -6.0_ -3.0 __ 88.0 (t10) Cat Lady ___________________20 __ 9 __ 3 ____ -10.5 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 ___ 87.5 (12) ineedsnow __________________19 __ 8 __ 5 _____ -7.5 __ 0.0 _ -6.0 ___ 86.5 (13) Roger Smith _______________ 20 __10 __ 3 ____ -10.5 _ -3.0 _ -1.0 ___ 85.5 (14) DonSutherland1 ____________20 __ 9 __ 5 ____ -10.5 _ -1.0 _ -6.0 ___ 82.5 (15) IntenseWind002 ___________ 21 ___9 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ___ 82.0 (16) Ed Snow & Hurricane Fan ___9 __ 4 __ 1 ______ -7.5 _-10.0 _ -1.0 ___ 81.5 (17) Daniel Boone _______________19 __ 11 __ 5 _____ -7.5 _ -6.0 _-6.0 ___ 80.5 (t18) yotaman ___________________ 20 __11 __ 4 ____ -10.5 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 80.5 (t18) LakeNormanStormin _______21 __ 10 __ 4 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _ -3.0 ___ 80.0 (20) WxWatcher007 ____________ 21 __ 10 __ 5 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _ -6.0 ___ 77.0 (t21) Prospero ___________________21 __ 11 __ 4 ____ -14.0 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 77.0 (t21) NorthHillsWx _______________23 __ 9 __ 4 ____ -22.5 _ -1.0 _ -3.0 ____73.5 (23) wxdude64 _________________ 22 __10 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _ -3.0 _ -6.0 ___ 73.0 (t24) Yoda _______________________21 __ 10 __ 6 ____-14.0 _ -3.0 _-10.0 ___ 73.0 (t24) Runman292 ________________20 __12 __ 6 ____ -10.5 _-10.0 _-10.0 ___69.5 (26) SnowenOutThere __________ 23 __11 __ 4 ____ -22.5 _ -6.0 _ -3.0 ___ 68.5 (27) RJay _______________________ 22 __12 __ 5 ____ -18.0 _-10.0 _ -6.0 ___ 66.0 (28) ColdRainLover _____________ 23 __11 __ 5 ____ -22.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.0 ___ 65.5 (29) cptcatz ____________________ 24 __13 __ 6 ____ -27.5 _-15.0 _-10.0 __ 47.5 (30) Brentrich ___________________27 __11 __ 7 ____ -45.5 _ -6.0 _ -15.0 __ 33.5 (31) ____________________________________ Ranks above assigned to non-forecasters do not influence ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

Scoring for December 2022 * scores for Tom include 1 pt late penalty FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ____ TOTAL __ anomalies __________ -1.5 _-0.6 __+1.6 __ __ __-1.4 __+0.2 _+1.7 ____ ___ ____ -1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2 ____ RodneyS _______________ 90 __ 92 __ 72 __ 254 __ 98 __ 90 __ 86 __ 274 _ 528 __ 34 __ 86 __ 92 __212 ____ 740 ___ Consensus __________88 __ 88 __ 46 __ 222 __ 86 __ 84 __ 96 __ 266 _ 488 __ 58 __ 76 __ 78 __ 212 ____ 700 hudsonvalley21 ________ 76 __ 86 __ 44 __ 206 __ 86 __ 82 __100__ 268_ 474 __ 56 __ 84 __ 80 __ 220 ____ 694 so_whats_happening __ 88 __ 88 __ 38 __ 214 __100__ 84 __ 98 __ 282 _ 496 __90 __ 70 __ 36 __ 196 ____ 692 RJay ___________________ 98 __ 82 __ 38 __ 218 __ 78 __ 96 __ 86 __ 260 _ 478 __ 62 __ 74 __ 76 __ 212 ____ 690 BKViking _______________100__ 82 __ 42 __ 224 __ 98 __ 88 __ 82 __ 268 _ 492 __ 78 __ 74 __ 42 __ 194 ____ 686 wxallannj ______________ 84 __ 92 __ 44 __ 220 __ 82 __ 84 __ 94 __ 260 _ 480 __ 52 __ 74 __ 66 __ 192 ____ 672 DonSutherland1 ________84 __ 92 __ 52 __ 228 __ 42 __ 88 __ 86 __ 216 _ 444 __ 52 __ 78 __ 80 __ 210 ____ 654 ___ Normal _____________ 68 __ 88 __ 68 __ 224 __ 72 __ 96 __ 66 __ 234_ 458 __ 62 __ 94 __ 36 __ 192 ____ 650 Roger Smith ___________ 86 __100 __66 __ 252 __ 64 __ 88 __ 86 __ 238_ 490 __ 48 __ 40 __ 68 __ 156 ____ 646 wxdude64 _____________ 90 __ 80 __ 46 __ 216 __ 56 __ 82 __100__ 238 _ 454 __ 40 __ 72 __ 80 __ 192 ____ 646 Tom ____ (-1%) _________ 97*__ 73*__ 38 __ 208 __ 85*__85*__69*__239 _ 447 __ 83*__ 81*__ 34 __ 198 ____ 645 George001 ____________ 90 __ 66 __ 18 ___ 196 __ 66 __ 88 __ 92 __ 246 _ 442 __ 38 __ 30 __ 72 __ 142 ____ 584 Scotty Lightning _______ 48 __ 68 __ 88 __ 204 __ 52 __ 64 __ 94 __ 210 _ 414 __ 42 __ 64 __ 16 __ 122 ____ 536 __________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT BOS (+1.0) is a win for Scotty Lightning (+1.0) with highest forecast. DEN (-1.9) is a loss for Roger Smith (-4.5) within the regular forecast group, and also a loss for George001 (-5.0), with the win going to so_whats_happening (-1.4). PHX (-0.3) is also a loss for Roger Smith and George001 with the win going to RodneyS (+0.4) and Normal (0.0). ___________________________ ======================= (actual forecasts) FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ________ -0.4 __-1.3 __-1.2 __ -2.1 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___+0.3 _+0.5 _-2.2 DonSutherland1 _______ -0.8 __-1.0 __-0.8 __ -4.3 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.8 _-4.2 wxallannj ______________ -0.8 __-1.0 __-1.2 ___-0.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _-1.5 Roger Smith ___________ -0.9 __-0.6 __-0.1 __-3.2 __-0.4 _+1.0 ___-4.5 _-3.3 _-4.8 so_whats_happening __ -1.0 __-1.2 __-1.5 ___-1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ -1.4 _+1.2 __ 0.0 Consensus _____________-1.0 _ -1.2 __ -1.1 ___ -2.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _-2.1 RodneyS _______________ -1.1 __-0.2 __+0.2 __-1.3 __-0.3 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+0.4 _-2.8 RJay ___________________ -1.5 __-1.5 __-1.5 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _-2.0 BKViking _______________-1.6 __-1.5 __-1.3 ___-1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ -0.8 _+1.0 _-0.3 Tom ____ (-1%) _________-1.8 __-1.9 __-1.5 __ -2.1 __ -0.5 _ +0.2 ___ -1.1 _+0.6 _+0.1 wxdude64 _____________-1.9 __-1.6 __-1.1 ___-3.6 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -4.2 George001 ____________-1.9 _ -2.3 __-2.5 __ -3.1 __+0.8 _+1.3 ___ -5.0 _-3.8 _-4.6

If NYC was 37.1 to the 27th then it could get as high as 38.2 for the monthly mean which is still below the 1991-2020 normal but ranks t58 out of the 154 Decembers in the records. 38.3 would rank t52nd and 38.4 t48th, so there have been quite a few Decembers in this range. Without the four cold days 24th-27th the average of the rest of the month (assuming it warms up as expected) would be close to 40.0 F which ranks t24th. Of course the other way of looking at it is that an average of 20.0 or lower would be much colder than any December (1876 average was 24.9, 1917 was 25.0), but probably more to the point, one of the colder four day intervals in December for quite some time. It has also been quite a wet month, approaching 5.7 to 6.0" of rain by the end of the month possibly. So basically we could say it has been a mild, wet month with a cold interval late 23rd fading out by 27th. The year looks like it will finish up either t14 or t17 with such recent years as 2001, 2002, 2011, 2017. Other years not far from it include 13th place 1999 and 19th place 1973, 20th place 1983. It will rank a bit warmer than 2018 and 2019, and cooler than 2020 or 2021.

Thanks, any help in publicizing the contest is welcome but we certainly tried that on a large scale a few years ago with the format of an inter-forum challenge but I think most of the sub-forums only managed to produce one or two entrants and eventually they were blown away by both the skill and numbers of the NYC and MA forums. I was basically it west of the Mississippi. New England and Great Lakes forums would probably be more interested in just local forecast challenges (from what I've seen). If it were not for the NYC turnout this contest likely would have gone extinct a while ago. ... as to help with the actual work involved, I am fine with that, you would be amazed and perhaps depressed if you saw how fast I can type this line DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (under ten seconds). Also the word FORECASTER I can do without looking down.

We will press on in the relentless quest for error-free long-range forecasting ... we invite you to join our hardy group for this new contest year. The challenge is to predict the temperature anomalies (relative to 1991-2020) for nine locations: __ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA to the nearest 0.1 F deg. Scores are basically 100 minus 2x error in 0.1 deg, unless no forecaster's raw score is 60 or higher, at which point, we award progressive scores fitted to the range of 0-60 from the forecasts. Usually the deadline is 06z the first day of the month, but in January the tradition is to welcome in new forecasters and waive the late penalty until the 3rd (12z) so as long as you're entered before that, no late penalty. Good luck and thanks for entering.

I know you've posted stats before but can you perhaps place in context of past events where this ranks? Also if the data only go back a certain number of years would there be any longer historical data sources to identify extremes from say the cold decades of the 19th century? I suppose that back then, while there may have been more frequent opportunities for lake effect, Lake Erie rarely stayed as warm as it has been for this event, so that might balance out. I have been searching largely in vain for any reliable lake effect measurements in Ontario snow belts from that era. One of the few events that might rival this one but in a different location was in late January of 1971 in the Georgian Bay snow belt, I think conditions were probably similar in terms of frigid temperatures and strong winds combined with heavy snowfalls. That wind direction may have brought heavy squalls to western NY but perhaps a bit further south, also Jan 1971 had been a cold month and Lake Erie might have been largely frozen. Your detailed chronicles of these 2022 snow events will be a valuable historical resource years from now, great job. (I have 20" of snow here and it is more than enough, the one difference is that ours stays on the ground all winter, no 70 deg New Years in our future)

I didn't see the post in question, but nobody's rooting for death or destruction, we can however share in the awe at the power of nature and I hope the political climate doesn't overly modulate this into yet another thing we're not allowed to do or think because of any (faint signal at most) human contribution to these weather events, which are not new, you can read about the hardships faced by settlers in the Midwest in February and March of 1843 after a storm of perhaps equal severity (on a slightly different trajectory) that crossed the lower Great Lakes on Jan 31. ... Also I feel that weather forums have an additional impact to the official sources of information and warnings about these storms, and can assist in preparing the public for the challenges of approaching severe weather events. To know that something is coming has to be of some value in preventing death and injury, even if perhaps there is little we can do to reduce damage (although in advance of a strong windstorm or a flood, people can for example remove loose objects from their property, and park their cars in strategic locations less likely to experience damage). It's interesting that there was perhaps a similar refusal to deal with the reality of the tornado as a weather phenomenon, wasn't it the case that before about 1945, the tornado was considered some sort of taboo word? I'm not sure where I picked up that impression or if there's any truth to it. -------------------- I was actually coming in to post a more mundane factoid, while updating my files I noticed that a daily rainfall record (1.83") had been set on Dec 23rd, replacing 1.61" from 1913. That took 1913 from 8 to 7 records but still in second place to 1983, and inflated the modest total of 2022 to just two (which is the most likely outcome for any given year out of 154 years). The previous record was back in July. Also new to the books, a record high minimum of 54 on Dec 7th edged past the tie shared by 1951, 1956 at 53F. All daily records and discussions of yearly record events can be found in a thread I have in the climate change forum here, it deals first with Toronto's 182 year record, then switches over to NYC, so if you happen to go there, the NYC material starts around the end of page one of the thread. My NYC data base is just one of the many benefits we all derive from the work and the insights of Don Sutherland. The Toronto data base can only be blamed on me, however.

Thanks, I suppose when we went from the three eastern locations to the larger grid, it was a larger commitment of time and perhaps that's the main or even only reason why we've seen the numbers decline. Anyway, it's all good if the current participants wish to continue.

Managed to find a list of co-op snowfall reports, the highest I spotted in MI was at a place called Mancelona which is a few miles northeast of TVC, and they report 26 inches with a base of 24" ... GRR had reported a total of about 17 inches 22nd-24th so far.

Yesterday as reported in the storm thread, NYC set a new record of 50 F deg for daily range (max 58, min 8). Today another record is now confirmed. The high of 15 at NYC establishes a new record temperature fall for maximum dailies, day to day as shown below: _ Rank ___ Dates _______________ From _ To ___ diff _ 01 ____ 2022 Dec 23-24 ______ 58 __ 15 ____-43 _ 02 _____1918 Feb 20-21 ________59 __ 18 ____-41 _ 03 ____ 1921 Mar 28-29 _______82 __ 42 ___ -40 _ 04 ____ 1927 Dec 8 - 9 ________65 __ 26 ___ -39 _ 05 ____ 1915 Apr 26-27 _______ 92 __ 54 ___ -38 _t06 ____ 1896 Feb 16-17 _______ 44 ___ 7 ___ -37 _t06 ____ 1978 Jan 9-10 ________ 58 __ 21 ___ -37 _t06 ____ 2003 Apr 16-17 _______ 88 __ 51 ___ -37 _t09 ____ 1876 Jan 10-11 ________60 __ 24 ___ -36 _t09 ____ 1911 Nov 12-13 ________69 __ 33 ___ -36 _t09 ____ 1933 Feb 8 - 9 ________ 60 __ 24 ___ -36 _t09 ____ 1970 Feb 3 - 4 _________56 __ 20 ___ -36 _t09 ____ 2014 Jan 6 - 7 ________ 55 __ 19 ____ -36 _t14 ____ 1890 Feb 5 - 6 ________ 68 __ 33 ____ -35 _t14 ___1898 Dec 31-1899 Jan 1_ 53 __ 18 ____ -35 _t14 ____ 1918 Jan 12-13 _________53 __ 18 ____ -35 _t14 ____ 1934 Mar 18-19 ________71 __ 36 ____ -35 _t14 ____ 1939 Apr 25-26 _______ 86 __ 51 ____ -35 _t14 ____ 1959 Mar 21-22 _______ 69 __ 34 ____ -35 ____________________________________________ The largest differential in the opposite direction was 34 F deg, set on these four occasions: * Dec 22-23 1871 rose from max 21 to 55 * Feb 5-6 1918 rose from max 4 to 38 * Mar 15-16 1935 rose from max 43 to 77 * Apr 11-12 1977 rose from max 56 to 90 Since the last of those, 33 deg is the highest day to day rise, achieved Apr 8-9 2001 (45 to 78). The only previous 33 deg rise was Apr 6-7 1929 (56 to 89). So these all told are the top six in the upward direction.

I won't calculate any preliminary scores, will leave the outcome hanging in suspense until we get to the actual end of the month numbers, partly because I think the outcome lies perhaps within the margin of error. RodneyS had a bit of a lead on DonS and wxdude64 going in, but their forecasts are different enough that either Don or wxdude64 could in theory edge past RodneyS at the final showdown. Then I looked further down the annual scoring table, Tom has an outside chance of catching some of the three leaders but would need to max out on all differentials he's holding (a colder ATL, IAH and a milder SEA for example). My plan is to go ahead with a contest for 2023 and see how it goes. Any ideas about expanding our field welcome up to and including a change in management. It might just be that more Am Wx forum members would participate even if nothing else changes but the brand name, but if anyone thinks they would like to give that a go, I would be quite glad to co-operate in that venture. And certainly any new contest manager should feel free to change anything about the format. It is what it is, and I am also happy enough to continue on, it's a small but enthusiastic and contest-loyal group we have so it's also fine to keep going as is. Whatever, have a great holiday and check in around January 1-2 to see what happened. There will be the usual January relaxed late penalty call for forecasts around 27th of December.

Let's go for 50 ... sets up a chance of breaking the record day to day change in maximum which I believe was 41 in the Feb 1918 event shown in the list. Will edit my table for that list which is somewhere back in this thread, when tomorrow is in the books.

I ran a program on the data base and here is the full list of 38+ daily ranges (1869-2022); as Don mentioned, 48 is the maximum but in terms of winter synoptics 43 (58/15) on Jan 9, 1978 seems to be the largest range from this type of deep freeze plunge (the record was a cold front too but in late March 1921). The occasions with ** marking are also in the list of largest day to day changes in maximum temperature that I posted earlier in the thread and will update from 23rd and 24th max data. The largest change there was 41 deg in Feb 1918. I have identified the cause of the large range which can be warming especially earlier in the records when there was a smaller urban heat island, at the onset of very warm spells. So the list of largest ranges caused by a daily cooling trend is smaller than this list, as about one third that I have identified are large (mostly spring month) warmings rather than created by a cold front. This is a long list but it may help anyone interested in finding similar synoptic situations. l can now edit in Dec 23, 2022 apparently the new champion of the big range at 50 F deg difference (58,8). Rank ___ Date ______ Range from Max, Min ___range due wx colder or warmer? _ 01 ____ Dec 23, 2022 _50 __ 58 __ 8 ____ cold front _ 02 ____ Mar 28, 1921 _ 48 __ 82 _ 34 ____ cold front (prev day 60/47, next day 42/26) _ 03 ____ Apr 25, 1915 _ 44 __ 91 _ 47 ____ could have been either or both (67,91,72,92,54) _t04 ____ Apr 7, 1929 __ 43 __ 89 _ 46 ____ warming from prev day max 56, next day 88 _t04 ____ Jan 9, 1978 __ 43 __ 58 _ 15 ____ cold front (next day 21/12) ^ _ 06 ____ Mar 13, 1990 _ 42 __ 85 _ 43 ___ warm spell with large diurnal ranges (also 35 range 15th) _t07 ____ Feb 20, 1918 _ 41 __ 59 _ 18 ____ cold front, next day max 18 (this is largest day to day change) ** _t07 ____ Mar 18, 1934 _41 __ 71 _ 30 ____ cold front, next day max 36 min 22 ** _t07 ____ May 19, 1962 _41 __ 99 _ 58 ____ warming, prev day 89/56, next 90/64. (May's highest max) _t07 ____ Mar 20, 1986 _41 __ 62 _ 21 ____ cold front, next day 36/18 _t07 ____ Dec 22, 1998 _41 __ 63 _ 22 ____ cold front, next day 29/18 _t12 ____ Dec 2, 1942 __ 40 __ 58 _ 18 ____ cold front, next day max 30 min 18 _t12 ____ Jan 23, 1957 _ 40 __ 60 _ 20 ____ cold front, next day max 27 min 16 _t12 ____ Apr 27, 1962 _ 40 __ 91 _ 51 _____ warming, prev day 71/45, next 89/62 _t12 ____ Apr 3, 1967 __ 40 __ 76 _ 36 ____ cold front (prev day 81/61, next day 50/32) _t12 ____ Apr 12, 1977 _ 40 __ 90 _ 50 ____ warming (prev day 56/42, next day 88/60) _t12 ____ Mar 18, 1989 _40 __ 77 _ 37 ____ cold front (prev day 70/42, (77/37), next day 46/31) _t12 ____ Apr 27, 1990 _ 40 __ 91 _ 51 ____ warming, next day 90/69 _t12 ____ Apr 4, 1995 __ 40 __ 68 _ 28 ___ cold front, next day 39/23 _t20 ____ Apr 8 1871 ___ 39 __ 85 _ 46 ____ next two days very warm (83, 80) _t20 ____ Jan 10, 1876 _ 39 __ 60 _ 21 ____ cold front (max 9th 56, max 11th 24) ** _t20 ____ Apr 19, 1897 _ 39 __ 68 _ 29 ____ cold front (max 20th 43 min 24) _t20 ____ Apr 1, 1917 ___ 39 __ 83 _ 44 ____could have been either or both (62, 83, 54) _t20 ____ Mar 26, 1922_ 39 __ 76 _ 37 ____ warming, prev day 55/40, next day 62/53 _t20 ____ Dec 8, 1927 __ 39 __ 65 _ 26 ____ cold front (next day max 26) ** _t20 ____ Feb 8, 1933 __ 39 __ 60 _ 21 ____ cold front (next day max 24) ** _t20 ____ Mar 9, 1987 __ 39 __ 62 _ 23 ____ cold front (prev day 76F, next day 28/15) record hi to low max in 2d _t20 ____ Mar 8, 2005 __ 39 __57 _ 18 ____ cold front (prev day 63/43, next day 31/16) _t20 ____ Jan 13, 2018 __ 39 __58 _ 19 ____ cold front (prev day 61/44, next day 25/15) _t30 ____ May 10 1874 _ 38 __ 90 _ 52 ____ cold front, morning low prob'ly 65-70 _t30 ____ Feb 27, 1880 _ 38 __ 68 _ 30 ___ warming, next two days 56, 69 (LYD) _t30 ____ Feb 16, 1896 _ 38 __ 44 __ 6 ___ cold front, max 15th 54, max 17th 7 F ** _t30 ____ Dec 15, 1901 _ 38 __ 60 _ 22 ___ cold front, max 14th 58, max 16th 26 _t30 ____ Apr 27, 1915 _ 38 __ 92 _ 54 ___ probably cold front (see above Apr 25) ** 2nd entry in 3d _t30 ____ Mar 19, 1918 _ 38 __ 76 _ 38 ____ cold front more likely (next day 52/36) _t30 ____ Dec 14, 1919 _ 38 __ 60 _ 22 ___ cold front (61, 60, 27 max 13-15) _t30 ____ Jan 27, 1925 _ 38 __ 42 __ 4 ___ cold front (next day min -2, max 14) _t30 ____ Mar 16, 1935 _ 38 __ 77 _ 39 ___ warming as prev day max 43, next day max 67 (range 34 cf) _t30 ____ Apr 21, 1936 _ 38 __ 81 _ 43 ___ cold front (next day 54/35) _t30 ____ Mar 3, 1938 __38 __ 49 _ 11 ___ cold front (next day 29/9) _t30 ____ Apr 25, 1960 _38 __ 87 _ 49 ___ warming more likely (70/45 prev, 70/52 next) or t'stm? _t30 ____ Feb 25, 1970 _38 __ 54 _ 16 ___ cold front (next day 26/9) ________________________ ^ Jan 26, 1978 perhaps comes to mind, had a 36F range 58 down to 22

^^ Gotta get those last minute stocking stuffers ^^ (CLE guess 18" storm total)