Roger Smith

Well I truly dislike imposing any late penalties especially on hard working forum-asset posters, and I tried to contact RJay to avoid any significant bites but found message box full (I think) ... anyway, contact me if the penalty seems out of line (in the past few months I have basically been going with 1% per half day late which is more lenient than the older regime). In any case, here are tables of entries for both contests. I could also mention there's a tropical seasonal contest in the tropical forum, some of you are already entered in that, and deadline for it is June 5th 06z. Welcome Terpeast, I believe it's a first time entry in our contest. I wish StormchaserChuck would enter all months as his average score is pretty good. Rhino16 joined up in March and has been entering each month. I also continue to hope we will see a resurgence of the contest participation to levels of yesteryear. But it is what it is, and I am happy to continue, I suspect some of you intimidate the potential entrants with your prowess (and some of us do not) ... (1) Table of forecasts for June 2023 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Roger Smith _________________ +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 __+3.0 _+1.5 _+0.7___+1.7 _+0.3 _+2.2 wxdude64 ___________________ +1.6 _+2.1 _+2.3 ___+1.9 _-0.7 _+0.2 __ -2.1 _ -1.3 _+1.8 Tom __________________________+1.1 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 __+0.9 _+0.4 _+1.1___+0.4 _+1.1 _+1.1 so_whats_happening ________ +1.1 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+1.8 _+0.5 _-0.6 __ -0.2 _-0.6 _+1.5 RJay _______ (-2%) ___________+1.0 _+2.0 _+2.9 __+2.0 _+1.5 _+2.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 _+2.0 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 wxallannj _____________________+1.0 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __+0.2 _-1.2 _-2.0 __ -1.2 _-0.5 _+2.2 ___ Consensus _______________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _+0.8 __+0.5_+0.4 _+0.8 __ 0.0 _-0.4_ +1.5 Rhino 16 _____________________ +0.9 _+0.3 _+0.4 __+0.7 _+0.7 _+0.4 __-0.3 _-0.4 _+0.7 BKViking _____________________+0.7 _+0.9 _+0.5 __+0.2 _-0.2 _+1.5 __+0.8 _+1.6 _+1.4 hudsonvalley21 ______________+0.7 _+0.4 _+0.6 __+1.3 _+1.8 _+1.0 __ +1.4 _+1.9 _+1.1 ___ Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 DonSutherland1 _____________ -0.1 _ +0.5 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _-0.5 _-0.2 __-3.2 _-1.5 _+2.0 Terpeast _____________________-0.3 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ +1.0 _-0.6 _-1.6 __ +0.5 _-0.8 _+2.0 RodneyS _____________________-0.3 _+0.1 _-0.5 ___-0.5 __ 0.0 _+0.8 __-0.4 _-2.1 _+0.7 ___ persistence (May 2023) __ -2.2 _ -0.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ -0.9 _ -0.7 ____ +2.0 _ +1.3 _ +3.4 _____________________ warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded ... Normal is colder for NYC, SEA. Consensus is median (ranked 7) of 13 forecasts. (2) Table of forecasts for Summer 2023 Maximum FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Rhino 16 _____________________105 __ 95 __ 98 ____101 _ 106 _ 101 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 96 Scotty Lightning _____________103 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 104 _ 109 ___ 94 _ 119 __ 90 Roger Smith _________________ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___103 _ 119 __ 98 so_whats_happening ________ 101 __ 101 __ 98 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 100 __ 101 _ 122 __ 97 RJay _________________________ 101 __ 98 __ 99 ____ 98 _ 101 _ 105 ___100 _ 119 __ 97 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 101 __ 98 __ 95 ____100 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 93 DonSutherland1 ______________101 __ 96 __ 96 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 103 ___ 98 _ 116 __ 92 ___ Consensus _______________ 100 __ 98 __ 98 ___ 98 _ 100 _ 103 ___ 99 _ 118 __ 95 wxdude64 ___________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 ___102 _ 100 _ 105 ___104 _ 119 __ 96 BKViking _____________________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 97 __ 97 ___99 __ 100 _ 120 __ 95 Tom ___________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 97 ___101 __ 99 __ 103 ___97 _ 119 __ 97 wxallannj ______________________98 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 94 __ 98 _ 102 __ 101 _ 116 __ 97 RodneyS ______________________98 __ 96 __ 95 ____ 96 __ 96 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 92 Terpeast ______________________ 96 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 95 __ 98 _ 102 ___ 99 _ 117 __ 99 ___________________ For this contest, consensus is mean of 13 forecasts.

A few days late but no doubt the hottest days of 2023 are some distance away ... so as always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports: DCA IAD BWI RIC and I will start the ball rolling with 102, 102, 103 and 103. Contest deadline 06z June 17 (which is Friday night). Tie-breaker details in a post in thread (lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties)

I recall a lot of forest fires in ON and QC in spring 1977. But it is unusual to have this many at any time of year, summer tends to be fairly moist across the boreal forest regions north of the lower lakes. Persistent high pressure over central to northern QC or north of Ontario quite unlikely past mid-June as the storm track almost always energizes across inland northern Canada in summer. So I would not expect this regime to persist, it may morph into a persistent high closer to New England and New York state if it doesn't collapse entirely. It has been anomalously warm in north-central Canada since April so I am thinking there won't be very frequent below normal outbreaks into the Midwest at any point, and if the Midwest runs very warm, hard to avoid at least a moderate positive anomaly in the inland northeast U.S. A few months in the past have seen much higher anomalies as far east as Toronto compared to NYC. Both July 1916 and 1921 were much warmer relative to normal in Toronto than in NYC. There's one place a ridge can set up, around MI-IN-KY-TN that spills heat into the lower lakes and OV but if persistent low pressure can form near 37N 72W then NYC can be alternating between subdued heat and cool, cloudy and sometimes wet intervals. (this was not the case in 2009 when a larger northeast flow extended well inland).

1949 had a very dry spring and early summer, a hot June and more heat in July and August, cooled off somewhat in September, and returned to significant warmth in October. Late November was briefly cold but the winter of 1949-50 was among the mildest on record.

Wow, this contest may require an assistant director at this rate. There will also be about a dozen along from two other forums in UK and Ireland. I will rank them in but issue two ranking lists at end of play so you can see how you did against American Weather folk and the somewhat larger global field. Expert forecasts will be scored but ranked outside your ranks. As I've been saying, you can edit away to end of Sunday June 4 without posting about it, as I have not collected the forecasts yet. FAQ 1. January storm ... does it count? Yes, the contest asks you to predict the count at end of year. 2. December storms ... do they count? Yes, same as above. 3. Tropical depressions not reaching TS status, not named, not in the count -- these do not count unless re-analyzed before Dec 31st. 4. Storms that have two active life cycles. They count as one as per NOAA protocols. 5. Prizes? Yes, promotion to PGA tour. You must also excel at golf and qualify some other way. So it's not a real prize. 6. Prestige? I think so, if you can beat 50 people and the recognized experts, that says something. 7. Same forecast as somebody else ... up to you to check for this, earliest post ranks higher. 8. Medicanes, South Atlantic canes ... no, and no. SCORING SYSTEM will be same as past two years, explained with table of forecasts in a few days. Basically, you lose fewer points for errors in storm count than in hurricane and major counts (this after that season with the 30 count that gave almost everyone a negative score). Decimal forecasts are allowed and are scored from their precise values.

Years with significant heat in early June sometimes see a return to that heat on several more occasions (e.g., 1919, 1934) but another outcome is a rather cool mid-summer and more heat in September (1895, 1925). I suspect this will turn into a relatively hot summer with a few cool and wet intervals, in this climate, harder to avoid east coast ridge building over the anomalously warm NAtl. It is also quite warm out here and pushing up a bit higher each day to mid-week. My idea for the summer pattern in general is that it may be prone to severe heat waves in central states and the western interior, and that the east will alternate between near average and hot spells with a bit of a westerly rather than south-westerly flow bias which can mean a rather dry regime, but no doubt with a few interruptions.

Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Spring segment Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3. FORECASTER _________ Winter TOTAL __ Points ____ MAR __ APR __ MAY ___ TOTAL __ Spring Points ___ TOTAL points RJay _________________________1879 _____ 10 _________ 481 ___ 640 ___ 640 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 15 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1675 _____ 4 ___________476 ___ 648 ___ 700 ____ 1824 ____ 10 ________ 14 ___ Consensus _______________1682 _____ 4.3 ________ 447 ___ 605 ___ 720 ____ 1772 ____6.9 ________ 11.2 DonSutherland1 _____________ 1722 _____ 6 __________ 513 ___ 592 ___ 656 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 11 wxallannj ____________________ 1699 _____ 5 __________ 477 ___ 588 ___ 700 ____ 1765 ____ 6 _________ 11 RodneyS ____________________ 1760 ______7 __________ 463 ___ 528 ___ 552 ____ 1543 ____ 1 __________8 wxdude64 __________________1518 ______ 1 ____________465 ___ 652 ___ 656 ____ 1773 ____ 7 __________8 Roger Smith ________________ 1626 _____ 3 ___________ 271 ___ 552 ___ 586 ____ 1409 ____ 1 __________ 4 Scotty Lightning ___________ 1147 ______ 1 ____________502 ___ 562 ___ 612 ____ 1676 ____ 3 __________ 4 so_whats_happening _______ 1620 _____ 2 ___________ -- --___ -- --___ -- --____ -- -- ____ 0 __________ 2 BKViking ___________________ 1576 ______ 1 ___________ 355 ___ 537 ___ 688 ____ 1580 ____ 1 __________ 2 Tom ________________________ 1545 ______ 1 ___________ -- --___ 591 ___ 690 ____ 1281 ____ 1 __________ 2 Rhino 16 ____________________ -- -- _____ 0 ____________ 389 ___ 630 ___ 656 ____ 1675 ____ 2 _________ 2 ___ Normal _________________ 1076 _____ 1 _____________ 422 ___ 538 ___ 610 ____ 1570 ____ 1 __________ 2 StormchaserChuck _________ 674 (1/3) _ 0 ____________-- --___ 580 ___ 632 ____ 1212 ____ 1 __________ 1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.7 _ +0.3 _ +2.2 101 __ 102 __ 100 ____ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 103 _ 119 _ 98

If May ends with 1.28" rain it will be 13th driest of 155 (1869-2023) at NYC, the top 20 dry Mays are: Rank ___ Year ____ Prec _01 ____ 1887 ____ 0.34 _02 ____ 1903 ____ 0.50 _03 ____ 1964 ____ 0.57 _04 ____ 1880 ____ 0.62 _05 ____ 1905 ____ 0.72 _06 ____ 1939 ____ 0.89 _07 ____ 1877 ____ 0.95 _08 ____ 1935 ____ 1.05 _09 ____ 1899 ____ 1.09 _10 ____ 1944 ____ 1.18 _11 ____ 1911 _____ 1.25 _12 ____ 1962 ____ 1.26 _13? ___ 2023 ____ 1.28 _t14 _ 1875, 1959 _ 1.33 _16 ____ 1902 ____ 1.35 _17 ____ 1987 ____ 1.45 _18 ____ 1909 ____ 1.47 _19 ____ 2005 ____ 1.48 _20 ____ 1910 ____ 1.49 (21) ____ 1993 ____ 1.56 Median value (rank 78) is 3.56"

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Forum-wide tropical seasonal contest in the tropical forum, deadline end of June 4th. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

A reminder to the usual crew that June temperature forecast contest deadline approaches. Also a general notice to NYC members that a seasonal hurricane season contest is open for entries to June 4th in the tropical forum. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/

Please note, forum season prediction contest closes end of day June 4th (06z June 5, 2023). NOAA forecast is 12-17, 5-9, 1-4 or median 14.5, 7.0, 2.5. UK Met Office not buying into El Nino suppression and predict 20, 11, 5. UA also higher than expert consensus at 19, 9, 5. (I am saying 19, 12, 4 but not an expert) CSU more conservative at 13, 6, 2. TWC saying 15, 7, 3. The contest is here in this sub-forum. I have invited weather nerds from UK and Irish weather forums to enter also.

Contest deadline extended to June 4th end of day (06z June 5, 2023). Contest open to members of UK forum Net-weather and Irish weather forum on boards.ie, on separate entry portals (I will list any forecasts submitted here). Same deadlines. National hurricane center says 12-17, 5-9 and 1-4, or 14.5/7.0/2.5 so that will enter contest as "NOAA median" although UK Met Office says 20/11/5. CSU is predicting 13/6/2 and TWC 15/7/3. I will score all of them but ranks will not affect your contest ranks. Edit any forecast already placed in the thread without notice needed, as I will construct a table of entries from what I see on 5th of June.

=== === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-MAY 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS RJay _______________________313 _324 _ 335 __ 972 __396 _325 _284__ 1005 __1977 _295 _296 _384 __975 ____2952 DonSutherland1 ___________ 288 _264 _ 314 __ 866 __316 _350 _344 __1010 __1876 __275 _296_382 __ 953 ____2829 hudsonvalley21 ____________271 _270 _ 335 __ 876 __356 _313 _293 __ 962 __1838 __292 _316 _359 __ 967 ____2805 wxallannj __________________ 297 _302 _ 321 __ 920 __ 369 _304 _322__ 995 __1915 _ 285 _318 _274 __877 ____ 2792 ___ Consensus _____________273 _274 _ 325 __872 __329 _282 _303 __ 914 __1786 _ 305 _ 302 _360 __967 ____2753 wxdude64 _________________300 _303 _312 __ 915 __253 _296 _260 __ 809 __1724 __333 _246 _342 __ 921 ____2645 RodneyS __________________ 254 _254 _278 __ 786 __ 195 _269 _318 __ 782 __1568 _ 367 _ 288 _340 __ 995____ 2573 BKViking ___________________276 _272 _303 __ 851 __293 _262 _287 __ 842 __1693 __287 _248 _240 __ 775 ____ 2468 Roger Smith _______________ 268 _226 _264 __ 758 __241 _209 _274 __ 724 __1482 __ 275 _248 _374 __ 897 ____2379 Scotty Lightning ___________213 _236 _290 __ 739 __289 _235 _270 __ 794 __1533 __266 _234 _254 __ 754 ____ 2287 Tom (4/5) __________________225 _230 _247 __ 702 __176 _228 _270 __ 674 __1376 __276 _262 _267 __ 805 _____2181 ___ Normal _________________ 148 _ 176 _210 __534 __ 220 _228 _242 __ 690 __1224 __278 _250 _244 __772 ____ 1996 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886 Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 174 _174 _200 ___ 548 ___220 _228 _150 ___ 598 __1146 __183 _144 _202 __ 529 ____ 1675 so_whats_happening (2/5) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _ 134 ___ 276 ___ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 ____ 928 rainsucks (1/5) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 _______________________________________________________ Persistence ________________143 _154 _292 __ 589 ___ 212 _219 _290 __ 721 __1310 __148 _ 310 _ 224 __ 682 ____1992 Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2*___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May (t) wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May (t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS ___________________1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0 BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (4/5) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (2/5) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/5) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 38 of 45 forecasts qualify, 25 of them for warmest, and 13 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2 ... 10 of 35 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those ten are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May ____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0___ 10-1 _______9.5 - 1 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0___ 9-3 _______8.5 - 3 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 7-1 _______ 6.5 - 1 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____ 5-0 _______ 5.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 ___ 3-2 _______ 3.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*___ 3-1 _______2.5 - 0.5 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 ___ 3-0 _______2.0 - 0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0____ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* ___ 1-2 ______ 0.5 - 1.0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - ___ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 0-0 ______ 0.0 - 0 ===========================================

Predict the temperature anomaly (F deg) for these nine locations, relative to their 1991-2020 averages: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and also add on your forecasts for their highest summer maximum readings (annual). Deadline 06z June 1st, with small late penalties (summer maximum contest will close mid-June if anyone wanted to enter later)

28.42" of rain fell at one location in Guam. GFS continues to stall Mawar east of Taiwan, but latest track across N Pac is closer to Gulf of Alaska.

If the GFS is correct, Mawar tracks west towards Luzon and stalls east of Taiwan around 29th, then is caught up in the subtropical jet and moves all the way across the Pacific around 35-40N to slam into the west coast of the U.S. by about June 8-10. That would dump a lot of subtropical heat into the circulation and might be a signal of a very hot spell in the central and eastern U.S. by mid June.