Roger Smith

March starts great according to the GFS 18z. This may be like my casino visit where I started great with a couple of jacks.

The month is also running very dry at 0.05" for NYC. The record low top ten for February are _01 __ 0.46 _ 1895 _02 __ 0.55 _ 1901 _03 __ 0.71 _ 2002 _04 __ 0.93 _ 2009 _05 __ 0.94 _ 1892 _06 __ 1.01 _ 1987 _07 __ 1.04 _ 1980 _08 __ 1.13 _ 1968 _09 __ 1.24 _ 1877 _10 __ 1.29 _ 1872 _____________________________________ The lowest total (1st to 16th) before this year was 0.18" in 1892 (0.20" 1912 and 0.21" 1904 close second and third). Today could be the first time 2023 holds the lead (if any rainfall is less than 0.13") -- the first fifteen days were totally dry in 1980 but 0.74" on 16th 1980 ended that month's stay in the top five. (2012 had only 0.16" by 15th but had a more average second half and finished outside the top ten). Conversely, 1895 and 1968 which made the list were bone dry from 9th (1895) and 4rd (1968) to the 28th (which in 1895 was also end of the month, and that dry spell included March 1st) --they ran up their small totals before those dates, plus the 0.60" that fell on leap year day in 1968. If 1968 had not been a leap year it would have ranked 2nd driest, and 1892 (with 0.09") would be 3rd rather than 4th, 1980 and 1872 were dry on leap year day. To compare records from tomorrow to end of month, 1892 held on at 0.18" to 18th, 1912 was 0.21" on 19th and 0.22" on 20th (then fell out of the top ten with heavy amounts), leaving 1895 at 0.46" the lowest from 21st to end of month although 1987 was only 0.48" by 22nd, adding 0.50" on 23rd.

After the first half of the month, here are the anomalies and projections ... __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (15th) ___ (anom 14d) ___+4.8 _ +4.7 _ +2.9 ___ +5.6 _ +4.7 _-2.5 __+0.5 _ -1.1 _ -0.6 (15th) ___ (p 28d) _______+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 ___ +4.0 _ +5.0 _-1.5 __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 (21st) ___ (p 28d) _______+5.5 _ +6.0 _ +4.5 ___ +4.5 _ +5.5 _-1.5 __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 (25th) ___ (p28d) _______+6.0 _ +5.5 _ +4.0 ___ +4.0 _ +6.0 _+2.0 __-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 ( 1st Mar) _ final anoms _+6.8 _ +5.2 _ +3.1 ___ +5.1 _ +8.6 _+2.8 __-1.6 _ -2.8 _ -3.3 __________________________________ update on snowfall totals to date (to Feb 28) __________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV ___________________________ 0.4 __ 2.2 __ 11.5 ___ 17.9 __ 21.2 _ 123.6 __ 41.6 _ 8.1 _ 49.9 -------------------------------------------- (15th) _ Following a few cold days, mild weather has dominated the east, while central and western regions have been slightly cooler than average. Eastern projections are based on assumptions of equal spells warmer and colder than current averages. Western projections assume a growing cold anomaly. (21st) _ Adjusted some provisionals by 0.5 or 1.0 based on latest guidance. (25th) _ Tweaked the provisionals, major change for IAH which has warmed rapidly. Most others same or slight changes. Last adjustments before final report. Snowfall totals will be adjusted as needed. (28th - March 1st) _ Final anomalies are now posted and scoring will be adjusted as shown.

In the opening post of this thread, I mentioned the resource of Alexis Caswell's Providence RI weather journal which runs from December 1831 to May 1860. This substantially overlaps Toronto's record starting March 1840 but is entirely before the Central Park weather station began operation. Obviously the events at Providence would resemble weather in the New York area more than Toronto, in fact by comparing the journal with Toronto and the newly available NOAA weather map reconstructions (1836 to 1850 were added to what had existed before), one can see that in general (a) the era had very frequent coastal lows that often impacted Providence and sometimes missed Toronto altogether, and (b) the maps themselves are probably quite deficient because obvious well-defined lows passing Providence barely show up, one suspects that ship reports in the Atlantic were used as a source for these maps but Caswell's journal appears to have been unknown to the map creators. They do seem to have known of the Toronto weather records. Other east coast weather records must have come into existence because by the 1840s the maps begin to look more detailed and also begin to match Caswell (who has very detailed barometric and wind records as well as temperature and precipitation). This section will list the daily extremes noted by Caswell during the period Dec 1831 to May 1860. His reporting is about 98% complete in that interval, with most of the infrequent gaps lasting a few days around late summer probably indicating a habitual time away for a local vacation or family visit (Caswell was a professor at Brown University). His temperatures are taken from sunrise, mid-day and 10 p.m., and he rarely (but on some extreme occasions) mentions more extreme values from other times of observation. So these daily records should probably be taken as "there or thereabouts" with the idea that many of them could be a bit less extreme than what a log of daily extremes would show. The precip records that I quote here are either one-day or two-day ending on the date cited. There is no easy way of breaking down his precipitation numbers by days and there are frequent overnight rainfalls (and snowfalls) summarized as totals. On rare occasions a two-day event will be reported by Caswell as two daily amounts. There, I have shown the two-day totals by asterisk since those would be comparable to many of the other record values due to the majority being two-day totals (a few events may be three-day totals, in all likelihood these would include one day at either end with quite small values, if I can make an educated guess by pressure or wind or cloud data which those are in the case of end-of-three-day values, I exclude the date from inclusion in the reporting here. The snowfall records are sometimes based on a 10:1 conversion of all-snow precip totals but are more often based on his direct measurements which tended to be expressed as a range over two inches, as in "ten to twelve inches." Caswell melted down snowfalls and sometimes has different ratios, for example on Feb 9, 1832, 0.40 precipitation was noted as 7 inches of snow. Many events had mixed rain and snow but he consistently noted the snow portions. From his comments we can see that he endeavoured to measure "level" snow rather than drifts. The few times that Caswell records a temperature to a half degree have all been expressed as the more extreme of the two possible roundings, for example, -4 and a half was -5, not -4, 18 and a half would have been 18 for a low, rather than 19 (my assumption was if the temperature had been observed at 18.5, it was very likely 18.4 or lower at some point in time), but only the negative cases actually came into play, no values above zero were ever expressed with a half degree precision. This was only done a few times early in the series, mostly in the cold spell Jan 3-5 1835. DAILY RECORDS from the PROVIDENCE WEATHER JOURNAL (Dec 1831 to May 1860) January 1832-1860 ________________________________________ February 1832-1860 Date __ Max year__ Min year __ Prec _________ Snow ________ Date __ Max year__ Min year ___ Prec ______ Snow _01 ___ 54 1848 ___ 2 1840 ___ 1.60 _1853 __ 5.0 _1854 ____ _01 ___ 50 1843*__ -10 1860 ___ 1.25 _1841 __ 10.0 _1841 _02 ___ 55 1848 ___ -3 1840 ___ 0.92 _1846 __ 0.5 _ 1843 ____ _02 ___ 49 1847 ___ -6 1836 ___ 1.20 _1858 __ 3.0 _1844 _03 ___ 50 1838 ___ -4 1835 ___ 1.20 _1857 ___12.0 _1857 ___ _03 ___ 57 1832 ___ -3 1836 ___ 0.98 _1847 __ 1.5 _1854 _04 ___ 59 1833 ___ -9 1835 ___ 1.50 _1859 ___15.0 _ 1859 __ _04 ___ 58 1842 ___ -2 1836 ___ 0.98 _1842 __10.0 _1843,45 _05 ___ 63 1833*___ -6 1835 ___ 1.20 _1852*__ 20.0*_1856 _ _05 ___ 52 1842 ___-5 1836,40 _ 2.95*_1848__ 6.5_1832,48,54* _06 ___ 61 1833 ___ +1 1835 ___ 2.50*_1856 __ 6.0 _1845*__ _06 ___ 58 1853 ___ -14 1855 ___(2.25 _1853) __ 4.0 _1859 _07 ___ 55 1833*___ -5 1835 ___ 2.00 _1841 __ 0.5 _1850 ____ _07 ___ 48 1840 ___ -15 1855 ___ 2.40 _1853*__ 7.0 _1836* _08 ___ 53 1841 ___ 0 1857 ___ 1.50 _1832 __ 2.0 _1850 ____ _08 ___ 49 1857 ___ 2 1835 ___ 1.75 _1836*__ 5.0 _1854* _09 ___ 53 1853 ___-8 1856 ___ 1.25 _1848 __ 6.2 _1844 ____ _ 09 ___ 51 1847 ___ 4 1835 ___ 1.55 _1840*__ 12.5 _1855* _10 ___ 51 1843 ___ -9 1859 ___ 0.60 _1836 __ 2.0 _1842,57 _ _10 ___ 53 1851 ___ 2 1843 ____ 0.20 _1847 __ 2.0 _1847 _11 ___ 55 1858 ___-11 1859 ___1.65 _1858 __ 7.5 _1847 ____ _11 ___ 51 1851 ___ 2 1848,57 _ 1.00 _1843 __ 6.0 _1838 _12 ___ 53 1839,54 _ -1 1859 __ 0.80 _1834 __ 6.0 _1860 ____ _12 ___ 53 1842 ___ -3 1857 ____ 0.75 _1832 __ 1.0 _1849,56 _13 ___ 43 1836 ___ 6 1842 ___ 0.70 _1841 __ 7.0 _1841 ____ _13 ___ 44 1860 ___ -1 1837 ___ 1.05 _1833 __ 4.0 _1853 _14 ___ 47 1847 ___ 5 1837 ___ 1.50 _1853*__ 14.0 _1853 ___ _14 ___ 49 1851 ___ -3 1856 ___ 1.28 _1850 __ 5.0 _1843 _15 ___ 51 1848 ___ 2 1857 ___ 0.62 _ 1848 __ 0.5 _1852 ____ _15 ___ 53 1851 ___ 2 1836 ___ 2.50 _1855 __ 15.0 _1846 _16 ___ 56 1858 ___ -4 1840 ___ 1.33 _1858*__ 2.0 _1855 ___ _16 ___ 55 1857 ___ -1 1849 ___1.00 _1853,60*_ 9.0 _1860 _17 ___ 56 1838 ___ -4 1840 ___ 2.50 _1844*__ 7.5 _1846 ____ _17 ___ 61 1857 ___ -3 1837___ 0.85 _1835* __ 3.0 _1837 _18 ___ 51 1834 ___ -9 1857 ___ 3.60 _1850*__ 7.5 _1836 ____ _18 ___ 57 1857 ___ -4 1837 ___ 0.60 _1860 __ 6.0 _1860 _19 ___ 54 1832 ___ -1 1846 ___ 4.00 _1855*__18.0 _1857____ _19 ___ 53 1842 ___ -4 1836 ___ 1.40 _1842 __( 5.0 _1858) _20 ___ 54 1843 ___ -1 1852 ___ 0.60 _1851 __ 2.0 _ 1854 ____ _20 ___ 61 1840 ___ 1 1849 ___ 1.70 _1832*__ 12.5 _1858 _21 ___ 54 1859 ____ 3 1844 ___ 1.00 _1837*__ 5.0 _1837 ____ _21 ___ 51 1840 ___ 7 1852 ___ 1.50 _1851__ (8.0 _1847)* _22 ___ 50 1843 ___ -6 1857 ___ 2.10 _1850 __10.0 _1840*____ _22 ___ 55 1835 ___10 1832,38 _ 1.75 _1847*_ 12.0 _1847 _23 ___ 45 1835,51 -14 1857 ___ 1.75 _1840*___1.0_1844 ___ _23 ___ 57 1840 ___ 3 1858 ___1.35 _1853* 0.85 _1845* _24 ___ 53 1838 ___ -14 1857*__ (1.25 _1836)*__ 1.0 _1857___ _24 ___ 48 1857 ___ 4 1832___ 1.37 _1851 __ 2.5 _1833 _25 ___ 53 1858 ____ 0 1857 ___ 2.50 _1836*__ 5.0 _1836 ____ _25 ___ 68 1857 ___ 2 1838 ___ 0.45 _1834 __ 4.5 _1834 _26 ___ 57 1858*___-2 1832,57 _ 0.87 _1835*__ 2.5 _1854 ____ _26 ___ 53 1845 ___ 4 1838 ___ 2.00 _1854 __ 6.5 _1859 _27 ___ 50 1850 ___ -7 1832 ___ 2.50 _1848* __ 1.5 _1846 _____ _27 ___ 50 1860 ___ -2 1846 ___ 1.25 _1837 __ 2.5 _1835 _28 ___ 48 1848 ___ -4 1832 ___ 0.50*_1850 __ 5.0*_1850 _____ _28 ___ 55 1860 ___ 0 1835 ___ 1.40 _1852 __ 10.0 _1844 _29 ___ 52 1842 ___ -6 1854 ___ 3.10 _1859 __ 5.0 _ 1841 ______ _ 29 ___ 44 1840 ___ 5 1836 ___ (no precip any LYD 32-60) _30 ___ 50 1833 ___ 1 1844,51 _1.00 _1832,35 _ 2.5 _1854 __ __________________________________________________________ _31 ___ 52 1860 ___ 3 1838,44 _ 1.40 _1857 __ 2.0 _1857 ____ ___________________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________ Jan NOTES: (in order of dates rather than years) ____________ _____ ____ Feb NOTES: * also 1.00 _1844,56* .. 3rd 1856 was an ice storm. *4th-5th 1852 1.20" (0.60" est 4th) edged out similar two-part .. __ ___ *1st 1843 _ 50F est from notes, early morning. 1.08" rain not a record .. 1836 0.75" recorded as 0.50" 4th + 0.25" 5th. *5th-6th 1856 heavy snowstorm, precip and snowfall records are placed so as to allow other heavy fall to remain in the records but it appears that roughly equal amounts fell on both days in the 1856 storm which left severe snow drifts, estimated 18-20" level snow. *5th 1838 also 58F (not a record) _________________________ ________ ____ *5th 1848 _2.95" total 4th-5th, may have included 0.40" from wet snow *6th 1845 snow with some sleet, rain by 7th, the amount for __________ event on 1st, not clear from notes, but either way would have replaced 6th-7th was 1.00" not a record, the amount on 6th may have _________ ... 1843 _ 2.20" liquid _ (first part of storm snow, amount not given) ... been similar to, or a bit more than, 1842 as shown (0.65"). _____________ ... the 1848 storm had roughly similar snow by 5th to known amount of * 7th also 1855 had 54 F. ________________________________________________ ... 6.5" (1832) so these are listed as co-record holders, together with 1854 *14th also 1.40" (13th-14th) 1856, mostly rain, 4.0" snow. ______________ ... where 0.3" liquid gave "six or seven inches, much drifted" by a.m. 6th. *16th-17th 1844 _ Two day mostly rain, started wet snow ... ___________ ... ... portion on 16th likely similar to record shown, two-day ... ___________ total beat second place value of 1.15" from 1841 (17th). _______________ *7-8 1853 2.40" rain, 2.25" is recorded for 7th and 0.15" for 8th. *18-19 _ The very heavy 3.60" rainfall is based on Caswell's total of .. 4.00" for 18-19, where he says 4" of snow fell on 19th, which would .. imply 3.60" rain on 18th. There was 2.50" liquid in the heavy snow storm of 18th-19th 1857 and also 1.00" rain on 19th in 1838. _________ * 7-8 1836 1.75" precip, snow to rain, no snow depth given, est at least 7" * 21st may have had similar precip from first half of 1850 event on ____ * 8th 1854 1.50" snow changed to rain, 5.0" snow an estimate (it melted 21st-22nd, that event mostly rain but started with some snow. _______ ... by end of the event a.m. 9th. Also 1.25" rain 8th 1857, ice jam flooding *22nd-23rd 1840 1.75" about 10" snow all fell on 22nd, 1.25" of ______ *9th 1855 12.5" snow 8-9, 7.0" also fell in 1832 on 9th. entire event recorded for 22nd (probably 0.50" rain of this on _______ *9 1840 1.55" rain 7th-9th, probably most fell on 9th (about .15" 7th, 8th) 23rd, under rules used the full amount counts for 23rd. _______________... also on 9th, 1850 had 1.45" rain *24th also -8 1837. ____________________________________________________ *15-16 0.87" 1838 a mixed fall of snow, hail and freezing rain. 3-4" snow likely * 25th-26th 1835 two daily measurements, 0.62"+0.25" ______________ *16th 1860 1.00" precip, 9.0" snow (includes some on 15th) so that 0.87" 1835 applies to 26th, the 0.62" portion replaced________ * 17 1835 0.80" rain, comments say "sleet" may have been an ice storm. 0.60" from 1832 which was a one-day event but two-day event_______ * 19-20 1832 0.67 + 1.03 = 1.70" 1858 had 1.25" 19-20. 24th-25th 1836 recorded 2.50" ... that was likely about evenly ________ *21-22 1.75" may include small amounts from days before 21st, storm was split between the two days which explains the bracketed 1.25" ________ ... a two part snowstorm with total estimated 12.0" first day estimated 8.0" value for the 24th. Snow during that event was reported ______________ *23 also 0.87" 1838 and 0.75" 1837 as 5.0" and came in several portions of a mixed event. Note also 1.50" 24th-25th 1845 (rain). * 26th also 54F in 1851, 53F in 1835, 1838 and 1849 * 27th 1838 1.04" .. there was also 0.33" on 26th but that was not continuous with the 27th fall of rain and hail. Even so by the rules being used, the 1.04" can be taken as 1.37" This was in any case pushed out by 2.50" on 27th 1848. * 28th 1855 may have exceeded these values but is part of a total of 1.00" 28-29 which is difficult to break down. A total of 1.70" liquid (mostly rain, some snow) fell 26th-29th 1855. ============================================================ due to fewer two-day rainfall totals used by Caswell, max precip values are daily except as noted. MARCH 1832-60 __________________________________ APRIL 1832-60 ________________ Date __ Max year __ Min year__ Prec _______ Snow ________ Date ___ Max year __ Min year ____ Prec _______ Snow _ 01 ___ 51 1860 __ 0 1835 ____1.50 _1836 __ 3.6 _1833* ___ _ 01 ___ 68 1833,60 _15 1847 ___1.62 _1837 __ 3.0 _1843* _ 02 ___ 53 1842,60__-2 1833,35 _ 0.50 _1857_ 3.0 _1834,57*_ 02 __ 66 1833 __15 1857*____0.75 _1841,51 _ 0.1 _1855 _ 03 ___ 64 1842 __-4 1833 ____1.20 _1859 __ 6.5 _1848,59_ _ 03 ___ 70 1842*__18 1857* ____1.15 _1835 __ 0.5 _1832* _ 04 ___ 68 1840,42 _ 2 1858 __0.75 _1844 __ 4.0 _1844 ___ _ 04 ___ 68 1844 __ 25 1843 _____1.90 _1850 __ 0.5 _1845 _ 05 ___ 54 1834 __-1 1833 ____1.50 _1832 __ 8.0 _1853 ___ _ 05 ___ 65 1833,51__26 1832____0.50 _1855 __1.0 _1850,52 _ 06 ___ 56 1834 __ 3 1858 ____1.60 _1850 __ 1.4 _1833*___ _ 06 ___ 67 1838 __22 1832 ____1.87 _1857 __ 8.5 _1852* _ 07 ___ 51 1839 __10 1833 ____0.50 _1835 __ 2.0 _1835*___ _ 07 ___ 73 1839 __20 1836 ____0.70 _1838 __0.1 _1845 _ 08 ___ 53 1834 __ 8 1840 ____1.40 _1846*__ 8.0 _1851,58_ _ 08 ___ 61 1849 __27 1832 ____2.56 _1833*__ _ 09 ___ 59 1832 __ 4 1856 ____1.50 _1837,48 __ 4.0 _1857 _ _ 09 ___ 70 1835 __20 1832 ____0.50 _1834.57 __ 0.5 _1852 _ 10 ___ 66 1842*__-2 1856 ____2.00 _1836 __9.5 _1835*___ _ 10 ___ 68 1848 __29 1832,50 ___0.50 _1844 __ _ 11 ___ 57 1834 __ 6 1856,57 __0.75 _1845 __ 7.5 _1845*_ _ 11 ___72 1844 __25 1841 ____0.53 _1859 __ _ 12 ___ 56 1832 __11 1856 ____1.10 _1859 __0.2 _1856 ___ _ 12 ___ 70 1833 __21 1836 ____2.50 _1839*__(2.0)_1841* _ 13 ___ 62 1854 __ 8 1857 ___ 1.00 _1841 __7.5 _1841 ___ _ 13 ___ 75 1834 __27 1856 ____1.75 _1841*__18.0 _1841* _ 14 ___ 58 1850 __13 1853 ___ 1.00 _1845 __ 0.5 _1845 __ _ 14 ___ 78 1844 __27 1841 ____ 0.62 _1857 __ 2.0 _1838* _ 15 ___ 55 1854 __ 8 1848 ____2.50 _1859 __ 1.0 _1834,55__ _ 15 ___ 75 1834 __23 1838 ____1.35 _1852 __ 4.0 _1854 _ 16 ___ 68 1854 __ 8 1848*____2.00 _1844 __ 3.3 _1841*___ _ 16 ___ 75 1834 __24 1838,49__0.45 _1835 __ 2.0 _1835* _ 17 ___ 59 1859 __11 1848 ____0.75 _1843*_ 7.5 _1851*___ _ 17 ___ 75 1834 __23 1838 ____1.75 _1832 __ 1.0 _1851* _ 18 ___ 60 1858 __14 1832 ____1.45 _1852* __ 5.0 _1838*___ _18 ___74 1855 __21 1835 ____2.25 _1851*__6.0 _1854 _ 19 ___ 66 1834 __12 1832 ____1.20 _1857* __ 4.5 _1856 ___ _ 19 ___ 76 1855 __25 1835 ____2.40 _1852*__1.0 _1848 _ 20 ___ 63 1841 __16 1832,54 __1.00 _1840 __ 0.5 _1839, 50_ _20 ___ 70 1833 __30 1838 ____1.40 _1857*__ 1.0 _1851 _ 21 ___ 62 1853 ___13 1854 __ 3.12 _1849 __ 1.0 _1844 _____ _ 21 ___ 76 1846 __24 1838 ____1.40 _1856,57*__3.0 _1857 _ 22 ___ 60 1853 __16 1854 ___ 1.15 _1835*__2.0_1835,36,42*_ 22 __ 82 1847*__32 1836 ___1.05 _1859 __ _ 23 ___ 56 1851 __14 1843 ___ 1.50 _1854 __ 1.0 _1843 ___ _ 23 ___ 75 1846 __28 1836 ____ 2.00 _1843 __ 1.0 _1847 _ 24 ___ 62 1832 __16 1843 ____0.75 _1840 __ 7.5 _1840 ___ _ 24 ___ 75 1840,46 _26 1838 ___0.10 _1856 __ _ 25 ___ 54 1840 __17 1855 ____1.36 _1846*__ 3.5 _1852*___ _ 25 ___ 72 1845 __25 1836 ____0.80 _1835 __ 1.0 _1835* _ 26 ___ 60 1841 __17 1836 ____0.30 _1832 __ 1.0 _1849,55_ _ 26 ___ 77 1832 __29 1834 ____0.53 _1842 __ _ 27 ___ 65 1851 __11 1858 ____1.22 _1849*__ 2.0 _1838 ___ _ 27 ___ 77 1832 __30 1835 ____0.68 _1834 __ 1.0 _1834,58 _ 28 ___ 70 1845 __16 1854 _____3.33 _1843*__2.5 _1850 ___ _ 28 ___ 78 1856 __30 1834 ____0.85 _1835 __ 1.0 _1835* _ 29 ___ 63 1834 __17 1854 ____0.80 _1849*__ 1.5 _1836*___ _ 29 ___ 79 1833 __36 1832 ____1.72 _1850 __0.5 _1855 _ 30 ___ 68 1860 __17 1854 ____1.00 _1840*__ 1.0 _1835,44*_ _ 30 _ 82 1833 __ 36 1844 ____1.50 _1841,54*__ _ 31 ___ 73 1851*__19 1841,56 __1.00 _1852 __ 7.5 _1847* ___ ____ ____ _____________________________ _______________________________________________________________ ____________________________________ Notes: (March) ______________________________________________ Notes: (April) ____ * 1st 1858 also around 3-4 inches of "damp snow" from 0.70" prec. * 2nd 1857 snow amount not stated, seemed likely to be similar to .. _* 1st _ 1843 _ snow, see note for Mar 31, 1843 .. the earlier amount so declared this a tie. Might have been up to 5" _ *2nd _ also 18F 1855 *6th 1841 0.75" liquid all snow in notes but rather mild and no ... _____ *3rd _ also 69F 1858 and also 22F 1854 .. .. evidence of any snow cover, may have exceeded the 1833 value ___* 3rd _ "rain and snow" in notes, no amount, 0.5" est from temps * 7th 1835 snow est from comments and temps, rain to snow to rain _ *6th _ also 5.0" snow 1850 * 8th also 1.25" in 1839 __________________________________________________ *8th _ also 1.85" 1837 (not a record) *10th 1842 (66F) also 63F in 1832 on 10th *10th 1835 snow measured "9 to 10 inches, damp" at end of day _____ * 12th 2.50" 1839 _ first measured rain for over a month, blowing *10th-11th 1841 about 3" snow overnight, most on 10th (not a rec) _ __ .. .. dust mentioned Apr 10th; also this amount is a rare April case of * 11th also 1.5" snow in 1833 and 1841 _________________________________ .. ..unsorted 2-day total 12th-13th, estimated as 1.75" 12th and 0.75" 13th 1841 1.00" liquid overnight 12th-13th gave at least 5" snow ______ .. .. 13th from notes ... also 1.80" on 12th alone in 1840 .. .. cover by morning, but have estimated 7.5" might be measured ____*13th 1841 _ Caswell notes that this extraordinary snowfall was on .. .. also 0.88" in 1837 on 13th. ___________________________________________ .. .. the ground and measured in several locations afternoon 13th .. .. Also 1.75" liquid and 7.5" snow 13th 1852 ____________________________ .. .. at 16-18", the (2.0") portion on 12th is based on start time ____________________________________________________________________________ .. .. of 9 p.m. .. the 1.75" liquid thus includes about 0.20" on ____________________________________________________________________________ .. .. previous day so that 1.70" from 1836 on 13th would still be a ________________________________________________________________________________one-day record against the 1.75" two-day 1841 value. ____________________________________________________________________________ *14th 1838 _ 0.20" liquid, notes say snow came and went at *16th 1841 3.3" snow assigned as liquid 0.33" and temps well below ___ .. .. intervals and sometimes covered the ground; would likely .. .. freezing, only snow mentioned in notes ______________________________ .. .. be 1.0-2.0" snow *16th also 12F min 1832. _________________________________________________ *16th 1835 _ 0.45" liquid, Caswell says all snow and 2.0" depth at *17th 1843 0.75" included some snow, amounts not measured _________ .. .. end of event, this could have up to 4.5" by modern practices *17th-18th 1851 1.00" liquid, about 7.5" snow, these amounts fell over __ *17th-18th 1851 _ 2.25" over two days, severe storm, some snow .. the two days, and are inserted into table to preserve other significant__ .. mixed in assigned to 17th (1.0"), may have been 2-5 inches. .. records. The storm was described as severe. (1.45" 1852 record) .. .. .. Also 1.40" on 18th in 1859. * 18th 1838 snow est from temp cold enough for all to settle (not .. __ *18th _ also 1.00" 1838 .. .. measured in notes), also 0.5" 1832 on same date _________________*19th-20th 1852 _ 2.40" likely about 1.6" 19th, 0.80" 20th *19th also 1.10" 1835 _________________________________________________ *20th-21st 1857 _ 2.80" about equally divided, both halves *22nd 1835 "rain and hail" noted, thunder, max 32F, snow not .. ____ .. would exceed 1.10" 20th (1851) and tie 1.40" 21st (1856). (incl 3.0" S) .. .. mentioned but assigned 0.5" to conform with sleet protocol _____ *22nd also 80F in 1842 *25th _ 1.0" snow est, comments indicate storm rain to snow to rain, .. .. modern practice might have measured 1-3" as "snow" __________ *22nd 1836 0.75" melted, snow is mentioned but no depth given .. .. not sure if this means some snow mixed with rain, or melting .. as falling (evg temp 28F) .. could be sev'l inches but no evidence .. declaring this a tie with 1835 both at 2.0" est (either could be .. as much as 4-6 inches though) ... 1842 joined this tie with 2" .. cover reported in notes from snow-rain mix of 0.50" *25th 1842 "rain, snow, hail mingled" "very stormy" in notes, no .. .. .. snow measurements are given, temps low-mid 30s, 1.0" est. .. .. .. from 0.80" precip (not a record after 1846 heavier). .. .. snow also overtaken by 3.5" (of 0.85") snow 1852 *27th 1849 _ 2.12" 26th-29th is not broken down, I have estimated 0.52" .. for 27th after 1.0" (0.10") snow 26th, and most of rest 28th-29th. .. 28th amount around 0.70" not a record for that date (see below) *28th 1843 _ 3.30" mostly or all rain, "violent storm" temp 40s, .. ____ ___ *28th _ "rain and snow" in notes, no amount, 1.0" est from temps .. SE wind given force 5 mid-day, a rare designation. (0.70" est 1849) *29th 1847 _ 1.5 to 4.0 inch snowfall possible, see note for 31st below. *30th 1835 "rain and snow" no measurement given, snow est from .. .. .. 0.55" liquid and temps low-mid 30s _____________________________ *30th 1841 _ For reasons unstated, Caswell has only a ten-day total ________________________________________________________________________.. rainfall from 21st to 30th, of 3.25" .. from the notes and a check ________________________________________________________________________ .. of the synoptic clues, none of the amounts before 30th appeared ________________________________________________________________________ .. overly heavy and then heavy rain is mentioned for the 30th. The ________________________________________________________________________ .. amount assigned to 30th (1.50") may be conservative. No other ________________________________________________________________________ .. daily records were obviously challenged within the 1.75" to be ________________________________________________________________________ .. spread out among several other events 21st-29th. The 30th ________________________________________________________________________ .. event may also include about 0.25" to 0.50" more on evening of ________________________________________________________________________ .. 29th (notes say rain started 9 p.m. 29th). Also, 2.50" 29th-30th ________________________________________________________________________ .. 1854, about 1.50" similar to 1841 on 30th. *31st 1843 _ snow in evening continued with 0.70" total Apr 1st, .. __ * general note APR 1847 rainfalls unavailable due to instrument .. est 3.0" to 5.0" snow covered ground by then ... also 2-3 inches ____ .. problems but monthly amount rather small suggesting no date .. of snow 30th-31st 1844, both daily records were declared tied, ____ .. records were lost anyway. .. but then 7.5" snow listed in notes for 31st 1847. This amount .. (unusual for Caswell's normally meticulous record keeping but .. later explained as note to April 1847, defective rain gauge) is .. not supported by any notation under precipitation amounts .. nor is a snowfall on 29th but the monthly total seems to match .. the missing notations (possible of course that the technology .. of producing the e-book inadvertently covered up the numbers). * 31st also 71 F in 1860. Notes mention smoke haze and red sun. Following on with Providence RI daily records 1832-60 ... snow not shown daily, but for May, Oct some snowfalls are found in the daily notes (asterisk by date number or precip) (all can be assumed to be traces if not otherwise noted ...) MAY 1832-60 ___________________________ JUNE 1832=59 _________________________ JULY 1832-59 ___________________ Date _ Max year __ Min year __ Prec ____ Date _ Max year __ Min year __ Prec __ Date _ Max Year _ Min Year _ Prec _ 01 _ 77 1849 __ 28 1837 __ 1.60 1843 ___ 01 __ 82 1837 __ 37 1836 __ 1.10 1847 ___ 01*__ 93 1855 __ 49 1845 __ 0.50 1851 _ 02 _ 76 1833,36 _28 1837 __1.20 1846 ___02 __ 79 1845,52 _38 1843 __0.20 1844___02 __ 90 1855 __ 49 1857 __ 0.58 1834 _ 03 _ 81 1836 __ 36 1841*__ 2.10 1848 ___ 03 __ 84 1852 __ 46 1832 __ 1.13 1847 ___ 03 __ 88 1854 __ 51 1849 __ 1.05 1839* _ 04 _ 76 1849 __ 34 1841 __ 2.00 1850*___ 04 __ 83 1846 _ 46 1832,33,42_1.68 1840 __04 __94 1854 __52 1849 __ 0.60 1851 _ 05 _ 76 1860 __ 35 1851 __ 2.56 1834 ___ 05 __ 86 1841 __ 45 1832 __ 1.93 1834 ___ 05 __ 92 1838 __ 56 1845 __ 1.75 1841 _ 06 _ 76 1837 __ 31 1854 __ 2.22 1850 ___ 06 __ 82 1854 __ 47 1832,57,59 _0.35 1836 __06 __88 1852 _57 1848 __ 0.65 1856 _ 07 _ 87 1852 __ 32 1854 __ 1.50 1843 ___ 07 __ 84 1858 __ 49 1851 __ 0.75 1851 ___ 07 __ 87 1847 __ 55 1848 __ 0.50 1855 _ 08 _ 79 1852 __ 37 1845*__ 1.20 1856*___ 08 __ 90 1841 __ 45 1835 __ 1.40 1854 ___ 08 __ 91 1834 __ 53 1832 __ 0.25 1840 _ 09*_ 74 1854 __ 35 1855 __ 1.20 1856*___ 09 __ 90 1845 __ 50 1835 __ 2.00 1842 ___ 09 __ 93 1838,52 __53 1832 __1.55 1856 _ 10 _ 79 1851 __ 37 1845 __ 1.50 1834 ___ 10 __ 91 1838 __ 46 1833 __ 1.00 1850 ___ 10 __ 92 1852 __ 51 1832 __ 0.75 1853 _ 11 _ 79 1836 __ 37 1838 __ 1.00 1858 ___ 11 __ 86 1838 __ 43 1842*__ 0.90 1843,58 ___ 11 __ 93 1838,58 _ 51 1832 _1.35 1858 _ 12 _ 80 1856 __ 37 1857 __ 2.00 1852 ___ 12 __ 90 1859 __ 45 1842*__ 2.10 1858*___ 12 __ 94 1849 __ 51 1832 __ 1.25 1856 _ 13 _ 82 1832 __ 37 1834,57 _ 1.50 1849 ___ 13 __ 87 1838 __ 45 1846 __ 0.95 1842 ___ 13 __ 97 1849*__ 54 1832 __ 7.00 1834* _ 14*_ 78 1832 __ 32 1834 __ 2.18 1839 ___ 14 __ 84 1850 __ 46 1839 __ 0.35 1856 ___ 14 __ 88 1845 __ 51 1832 __ 2.00 1841 _ 15 _ 77 1855 __ 30 1834 __ 0.40 1833 ___ 15 __ 86 1832 __ 49 1858 __ 4.50 1842*___ 15 __ 88 1850,56 __ 53 1832 __ 1.63 1835 _ 16 _ 84 1837 __ 31 1834 __ 2.12 1837 ___ 16 __ 95 1852 __ 47 1851 __ 0.46 1834 ___ 16 __ 89 1845,50 _51 1854 __ 1.70 1844 _ 17 _ 87 1853 __ 38 1834 __ 1.30 1845 ___ 17 __ 87 1832 __ 46 1851 __ 0.90 1836 ___ 17 __ 91 1840 __ 52 1836 __ 0.70 1852 _ 18 _ 88 1840 __ 40 1857 __ 0.50 1838,44,46 ___ 18 __ 88 1850 __48 1837 __1.30 1834 ___ 18 __ 92 1856 __ 53 1846 __ 0.81 1840 _ 19 _ 88 1848 __ 38 1846 __ 1.15 1853 ___ 19 __ 90 1849*__ xx 18xx __ 1.75 1854 ___ 19 __ 95 1855 __ 56 1833 __ 1.00 1850 _ 20 _ 87 1833*__ 37 1842 __ 2.25 1832 ___ 20 __ 93 1850*__ 46 1832 __ 0.96 1837 ___ 20 __ 90 1849,52 __57 1834 __ 0.90 1853 _ 21 _ 82 1849 __ 36 1842 __ 2.35 1859 ___ 21 __ 97 1849 __49 1836 __2.40 1833 ___ 21 __ 92 1852 __ 58 1834,40 __ 1.18 1849 _ 22 _ 79 1852 __ 39 1844 __ 1.10 1851 ___ 22 __ 97 1849 __ 46 1835 __ 1.10 1837 ___ 22 __ 95 1852 __ 56 1859 __ 1.00 1846 _ 23 _ 83 1851,56__41 1835 __1.43 1846 __ 23 __ 94 1849 __ 46 1846 __ 0.45 1847 ___ 23 __ 90 1850.52 __54 1836 __ 1.00 1857 _ 24 _ 91 1856 __ 38 1832 __ 0.65 1836 ___ 24 __ 87 1843 __ 48 1846 __0.40 1833 ___ 24 __ 91 1833 __ 55 1845 __ 1.55 1840 _ 25*_ 82 1844 __ 36 1832 __ 1.55 1837 ___ 25 __ 91 1858 __ 50 1836,46__ 0.60 1838 ___ 25 __ 92 1850 _ 54 1845 __ 1.17 1859 _ 26 _ 85 1857 __ 42 1856 __ 1.05 1853 ___ 26 __ 88 1844 __ 50 1833 __ 0.55 1854 ___ 26 __ 93 1834 __ 56 1832 __ 1.90 1853 _ 27 _ 83 1851 __ 40 1836 __ 0.72 1834*___ 27 __ 89 1844 __ 50 1836 __ 0.90 1840 ___ 27 __ 91 1856 __ 55 1847 __ 1.07 1853 _ 28 _ 85 1851 __ 44 1836 __ 0.75 1856,57 __28 __ 90 1847 __ 50 1836 __ 0.90 1839 ___ 28 __ 87 1838 __ 53 1847 _ 0.75 1850* _ 29 _ 80 1853 __ 46 1834 __ 1.00 1842 ___ 29 __ 95 1856 __ 52 1845 __ 1.00 1850 ___ 29 __ 94 1838 __ 48 1859 __ 0.60 1835 _ 30 _ 76 1855 __ 42 1836,45 _ 0.70 1842 ___ 30 __ 95 1855 __ 50 1845 __ 2.90 1848 ___ 30 __ 92 1838 __ 50 1859 __1.45 1843,58* _ 31 _ 80 1837 __ 39 1836*__ 0.71 1849 _________ (note max 1857 30th June 58) _______ 31 __ 88 1846 __ 53 1851 __ 2.17 1839 NOTES: (May) ___________________________ NOTES: (June) ___________________________NOTES: (July) __________________________ 1-5 1856 generally very cold, wet, some _________________________________________ 1st-3rd .. following very cool June 30th these .. mention of hail but not of snow ______ _________________________________________ .. three days had highs only 55F, 63F, 57F. 3rd 1841 snow lying on roofs, fences ___ _________________________________________ 3rd 1845 1.20" 2nd-3rd, 3rd portion est 0.8" .. as part of 0.50" amount on 3rd _______ __________________________________________ 3rd 1851 also 1.00" (2.10" in four days 1-4) 4th 1851 _ 2.00" incl some on 5th, est __ .. 1.5" on 4th and 0.5" on 5th when rain_ .. was mixed with hail at just 40F max. ____ 11th 1842 _ very cold day, lowest temp 8th 1845, 9th 1855 _ rain mixed with snow _ evening, next day Caswell remarks 8-9 1856 severe wind and rain storm lasted_ .. frost only prevented by strong wind .. 2d, have assigned half of stated 2.40" total .. to each day, records otherwise would be _ 11th-12th 1858 3.00" total, notes suggest .. 0.95" 1853 (8th) and 1.10" 1850 (9th) ______ a larger amount on 12th but with the .. see earlier note similar cold wet 1st-6th ___ previous record 0.90" on 11th, decided to 14th 1849 _ heavy fall of soft hail noted, _____ keep that value tied which left 2.10" 12th. .. lasting 5-10 mins, covered the ground _ .. 15th 1842 .. overnight rain once again .. temps near 60F so not snow as such ___ .. overflows rain gauge as in July 1834 ___ 13th 1834 _ rain gauge overflow 6" est 7.00" 20th 1842 _ rain mixed with snow with ___ 19th 1850 also 89 F ______________________ 13th 1849 _ lowest o/n temp 80F (with max 97) .. temps in 37-38 F range all day .. _________ 20th 1849 also 92 F _____________________ .. also later he measures 100F at 3:30 p.m. but .. storm (19-20) 0.72" after 76F on 19th ___ ___________________________________________.. comments there may have been reflection 20th 1848 _ may have equalled or surpassed ________________________________________ .. from a nearby building at that point. .. this record, no mid-day temp recorded but .. Caswell says 19th and 20th both "very hot" .. and previous day was recorded as 88F. 25th 1832 _ snow on ground a.m. _______ 20th-23rd 1849 severe heat wave, lows mid 70s 27th 30th 1836 _ mid-day temp 46F _____ 20th-26th 1836 mid-day temps in 50s F __ 27th 1843 .. "very moderate rain all day"__ 29th 1849 _ After week-long severe heat it turned .. no amount given, cannot be guessed ____ .. cool enough (61F mid-day) for indoor fires. .. from monthly total which has no amts .. not visible for other days. may have ______ _____________________________________________ 28th 1850 0.75" includes some on 29th .. exceeded stated daily record, unsure. ____ _____________________________________________ .. could be 0.40" + 0.35" or thereabouts .. also 27th 1850 shows as 0.73" but this ____ ____________________________________________ .. both rainfalls were 03h-05h events .. may include .10" or more from 26th. ______ ____________________________________________ 29th-30th 1858 total 2.10" appeared 31st 1845 _ 42F for second day (not rec) ____ ____________________________________________ from notes about equal to 1843 on 30th AUGUST 1832-59 _______________________ SEPTEMBER 1832=59 __________________OCTOBER 1832-59 ___________________ Date _ Max year __ Min year __ Prec ____ Date _ Max year __ Min year __ Prec __ Date _ Max Year _ Min Year _ Prec _ 01 _ 86 1838 __ 56 1842 __ 1.05 1840 ___ 01 __ 83 1848 __ 50 1839 __ 0.75 1834 ___ 01 __ 75 1846 __ 39 1835 __ 0.63 1832* _ 02 _ 87 1854 __ 52 1842 __ 1.74 1853 ___ 02 __ 86 1846 __ 49 1856 __ 0.65 1854 ___ 02 __ 81 1834 __ 38 1841 __ 3.30 1848* _ 03 _ 87 1856 __ 56 1835 __ 0.85 1837 ___ 03 __ 85 1846 __ 44 1833,38__2.00 1850___03__ 72 1840 __ 38 1841 __ 1.50 1841* _ 04 _ 87 1841 __ 48 1835 __ 3.04 1853*___ 04 __ 86 1834,47__44 1838 __ 0.80 1832,58 _ 04__ 82 1858 __ 34 1837,41_ 1.00 1841* _ 05 _ 93 1846 __ 52 1835 __ 1.00 1857*___ 05 __ 87 1846 __ 49 1837 __ 1.90 1834 ___ 05 __ 74 1855,59 _ 29 1837 __ 1.30 1845 _ 06 _ 94 1838 __ 54 1837 __ 2.25 1850*___ 06 __ 88 1854 __ 42 1836 __ 1.10 1854 ___ 06 __ 74 1855 __ 32 1839 __ 2.35 1835 _ 07 _ 87 1834 __ 55 1835 __ 1.50 1835 ___ 07 __ 90 1846 __ 38 1836 __ 0.60 1834 ___ 07 __ 74 1846 __ 33 1850 __ 2.75 1849* _ 08 _ 86 1851 __ 53 1835 __ 1.90 1847*___ 08 __ 87 1846 __ 45 1835 __ 1.38 1839 ___ 08 __ 79 1846 __ 29 1850 __ 1.50 1843* _ 09 _ 85 1848 __ 53 1836 __ 1.52 1832 ___ 09 __ 88 1855 __ 45 1845 __ 1.00 1842 ___ 09 __ 76 1854 __ 29 1837 __ 2.00 1859 _ 10 _ 87 1853 __ 50 1836 __ 1.90 1847*___ 10 __ 83 1852,58 _ 45 1832 __ 3.00 1854*___ 10 __ 76 1856 __ 34 1835 __ 0.75 1849 _ 11 _ 85 1856 __ 55 1836 __ 2.50 1845*___ 11 __ 87 1851 __ 45 1835 __ 0.40 1832 ___ 11 __ 75 1851*__ 32 1836 __ 0.38 1832 _ 12 _ 88 1853 __ 54 1850 __ 1.45 1858 ___ 12 __ 87 1851 __ 43 1834 __ 1.60 1838*___ 12 __ 75 1854 _ 34 1833 __ 1.10 1836 _ 13 _ 90 1853 __ 54 1844 __ 1.80 1850 ___ 13 __ 90 1855 __ 42 1848 __ 2.45 1847*___ 13 __ 72 1857 __ 30 1837 __ 1.30 1833 _ 14 _ 90 1853 __ 58 1838 __ 1.05 1840 ___ 14 __ 77 1846 __ 40 1833 __ 0.27 1845 ___ 14 __ 74 1859 __ 23 1837 __ 1.40 1839* _ 15 _ 86 1848 __ 56 1844 __ 0.58 1846 ___ 15 __ 79 1844 __ 39 1859 __ 1.00 1853 ___ 15*__ 66 1836 __ 26 1834 __ 1.20 1839* _ 16 _ 85 1848 __ 54 1841 __ 0.90 1839 ___ 16 __ 79 1844 __ 39 1859 __ 1.85 1858*___ 16 __ 67 1857 __ 28 1834 __ 1.15 1843 _ 17 _ 91 1855*__ 49 1850 _ 0.75 1851 ___ 17 __ 82 1855 __ 43 1833,52 __ 2.40 1859*___ 17 __ 75 1848 __ 32 1845 __ none >0.10 _ 18 _ 82 1834 __ 49 1850 __ 3.20 1848 ___ 18 __ 87 1855 __ 42 1835 __ 1.90 1848 ___ 18 __ 73 1832 __ 33 1838 __ 0.80 1850 _ 19 _ 86 1852 __ 49 1850 __ 1.10 1841 ___ 19 __ 81 1836 __ 41 1855 __ 0.95 1840 ___ 19 __ 76 1858* __33 1836 __ 1.73 1838 _ 20 _ 83 1841 __ 55 1832 __ 2.00 1843,56*__ 20 __ 85 1833 __ 38 1855 __ 2.25 1856*___ 20 __ 72 1858 __ 33 1854 __ 1.25 1833 _ 21 _ 84 1841 __ 45 1845*__ 1.46 1845 ___ 21 __ 81 1851,58 _ 38 1854 __ 1.30 1853 ___ 21*__ 68 1856 __ 27 1839 __ 2.37 1840 _ 22 _ 85 1839 __ 40 1845*__ 1.30 1845 ___ 22 __ 78 1839 __ 37 1854 __ 1.50 1856 ___ 22 __ 69 1843,56 __ 23 1845 __ 1.00 1832 _ 23 _ 85 1838 __ 50 1836 __ 0.45 1846 ___ 23 __ 74 1850 __ 38 1842 __ 1.15 1859 ___ 23 __ 67 1837 __ 26 1845 __ none >0.10 _ 24 _ 88 1838 __ 47 1837 __ 0.25 1853 ___ 24 __ 83 1843 __ 38 1842 __ 0.25 1849 ___ 24 __ 72 1839 _,_ 28 1845 __ 1.35 1853 _ 25*_ 91 1838 __ 47 1832 __2.50 1850*___ 25 __ 73 1841,49__35 1851__1.80 1843___ 25*__ 71 1850 __ 26 1834 __ 0.80 1842* _ 26 _ 87 1851 __ 46 1832 __ 1.37 1852 ___ 26 __ 77 1857 __ 42 1835,51 __ 1.43 1838 ___ 26*__ 63 1854 __ 24 1836 __ 1.55 1834 _ 27 _ 86 1833 __ 49 1856 __ 1.20 1841*___ 27 __ 79 1833*__ 34 1848 __ 0.87 1851 ___ 27*__ 66 1839 __ 22 1836,47 __ 1.70 1843* _ 28 _ 82 1849 __ 48 1855 __ 2.10 1858 ___ 28 __ 77 1857 __ 33 1844 __ 0.55 1853 ___ 28 __ 67 1858 __ 24 1836,47 __ 1.50 1853* _ 29 _ 81 1849 __ 47 1833,45__ 2.87 1852___ 29__72 1841,49__37 1834__1.35 1841___ 29*__ 71 1835,52 __ 28 1833 __ 2.20 1840* _ 30 _ 84 1837 __ 45 1833 __ 3.00 1839*___ 30 __ 77 1846 __ 33 1834 __ 0.95 1856 ___ 30 __ 69 1835,54 __ 25 1833 __ 1.15 1858 _ 31 _ 85 1851 __ 50 1855 __ 0.50 1838 _______________________________________________ 31 __ 68 1858 __ 24 1836 __ 0.50 1854 NOTES: (August) _________________________ NOTES: (September) _____________________NOTES: (October) ________________ 4-5th 1852 1.20" total, not sure if either _______________________________________________ 1-2 1855: 1.75" appeared more fell .. earlier record was equalled or slightly ________________________________________________ .. on 2nd than 1st, so neither record .. surpassed, 5th (0.70") fell to 1857 anyway ___________________________________________ .. is altered. This rain broke 2-mo dry .. so that replaces 0.44" 1832 for the day. ______________________________________________ .. spell of only about 0.5" 4th 1858 also 2.50" not a record. _6,8,10 1847 _ 4.85" in total (no other _____ 9-10th 1854 3.45" (assigned 3.00 to _________ 2nd 1848 _ 3.30" rain noted only for 2nd .. details or temp obs, Caswell evidently ___ .. 10th, ahead of 2.43" in 1847 _____________ .. but some rain also late 1st, and on 3rd .. away and probably told of dates for ______ ____________________________________________ .. with no amounts shown. Before this event .. the events around his return 12th. ________ ___________________________________________ .. which I assume must be at least 2.0" for 2nd .. no other events gave 0.5" on the 8th or 10th. _________________________________________ .. the maximum had been 1.25" 1833. Seems .. or 10th. ... 6th not likely a record amount ____ _________________________________________ .. unlikely that 3rd record was surpassed 1848. ,, have assigned values of 1.05" 1.90" 1.90" _____16th 1858 _ Hurricane 3 of 1858 .. with 2.25" 1850 (also 1.33" on 6th 1843). _____ made landfalls in Long Island and .. 10th-11th 1849 also had 1.80" probably ______ near Groton CT, Caswell records .. divided about 0.8 + 1.0 from notes. ___________ force 5 winds, see extended note** _7th 1835 _ temp 55F all day (1.50" R) ___ 1st-29th 1837 _ no rain noted at all ___________ 3rd-4th 1841 severe storm, with 11th 1841 _ 2,05" 10th-11th mostly on __ .. 0.48" on 30th the only amount.. ____________ .. snow on roofs and fences 4th a.m. .. 11th, 1.40" in 1841 all on 11th. __________ 8th 1846 also 1.37" ________________________ 7th 1849 .. landfalling hurricane cause, 17th 1848 _ 87F, warm spell cont'd _____ ______________________________________________ .. probably about 0.5" 6th and 2.25" .. but Caswell away from 18th to 30th ___ ______________________________________________ .. on 7th, very heavy rain all night 6-7; 20th 1856 _ 2.50" 19-20, appeared that ___ 17th 1859 H5 of season passed close to approx 2.00" similar to previous record ___ .. Long Island and Cape Cod, so a nor' fell on 20th, so designated this a tie_______ .. easter for Providence with 2.40" rain, 22nd 1845 _ assigned 40F despite data _ __.. strong winds ____________________________ .. Caswell does not mention hurricane missing 11th to 23rd as Caswell states __ _____________________________________________ _ but does mention strong winds, also "frost in many places, my grapevine was ______________________________________________ _ thunder near time of pressure minimum touched by frost." _____________________________________________________________________ _ I have no doubt that Caswell would 25th 1838 also 2.05" 1854 hot and smoky ______________________________________________ have known about hurricanes but perhaps 27th 1841 _ 1.20" part of 2.17" for the __ _______________________________________________ not aware of this one's approach? .. period 26th-30th, heavier 27th than ___ ______________________________________________ 8th 1843 2.00" 7-8, 1.18" also 1833 .. other days in this interval ______________ ______________________________________________ 11th 1837 also 74 F _30th 1837 _ "severe tempest with _____ _______________________________________________ 13th 1837 _ 0.86" rain, mixed with snow .. copious rain" in notes, 4-6 p.m. but ____ _____________________________________________ 14th-15th 1839 2.60" two-day rain total .. no amounts given, nor is monthly _____ 12th-13th 1838 .. 3.20" recorded for _________ .. .. based on notes assigned 1.40+1.20 amts .. total any different from other Aug _____ .. two day total, from comments it seems ____ 15th 1852 "considerable snow" mixed in with 1.0" rain .. 1837 entries ... this is a rare dis- _______ .. to be about equally divided, most fell ) _____ 19th also 74F in 1835, and also 1.30" 1834 _ 21st 1859 Tr snow (early a.m.) .. crepancy and possibly Caswell was _____ .. overnight. Record estimated was in _______ 25th-26th 1840 _ about 1.5" snow (1857 2.00" 25-27) .. not at his home location at that ________ .. any case broken by 1847 _________________ 27th 1838 _ also 0.83" hail, thunder .. time, and experienced this storm _______ ____________________________________________ 27th 1851 _ 1-2" snow early morning (1.2" rain 26-27) .. elsewhere but thought it had missed ___ _____________________________________________ 29th 1840 _ some of this on 28th .. . his location (no hints of this in notes). __ 20th also 1.95" 1847 ____________________ .. .. note 22.0 in log is a misprint for 2.20" .. reads like 1.5 to 3.0 inch storm. ________ _________________________________________ .. ... this error did not reach the totals _30th 1838 _ Thunderstorm produced what _______________________________________ .. .. or annual summaries of data .. Caswell called a "whirlwind" that moved through ________________________________ 27th-28th 1853 2.10" (0.60+1.50) est .. south end of city unroofing buildings and for _____________________________________28th-29th 1844 also 1.92" (most of .. some demolishing them (a tornado or downburst). .. _____________________________ .. this fell on the 29th .. This rain amount is erroneously entered on 31st ____ ____________________________ 29th 1846 _ at least 1" snow in a.m. .. in the table, assigned to 30th for records. Oddly ____ 27th also 78F 1859 .. this was the second consecutive severe storm on .. August 30th and both involve a rare error in the .. weather journal. _______________________________________ ** extended info on H3 1858 (which Caswell does not directly _30th 1839 .. for the third consecutive year a severe .. __ .. identify as a hurricane. From Wikiepdia, storm peaked as cat-2 .. rainstorm hit on 30th, this one was evidently from ____ .. from east of Hatteras to Long Island landfall. The info for New .. an offshore low as it was very cool (53F) with NE winds._ .. England includes the following details ... .. The amount shown (3.00") may have included a minor _ .. wind damage e CT, parts of Maine. Landfall Easthampton NY .. amount on 31st. (est 2.50 + 0.50). _______________________ .. at 1700z wind gusts to 80 mph, next hour near Groton CT wind _____________________________________________________________ .. gusts 75 mph, would place eye near Providence around 22z _____________________________________________________________ .. Caswell notes minimum barometric pressure 28.90" around 5 p.m. _____________________________________________________________ .. as in 1849, no mention of the word hurricane in the journal, nor _____________________________________________________________ .. any local damage reports. __________________________________________________ .. NOVEMBER 1832-59 _____________________________ DECEMBER 1831-59 ________________ Date __ Max year __ Min year __ Prec ________ Snow _______ Date ___ Max year __ Min year __ Prec _______ Snow _ 01 ___ 70 1854 ____ 19 1838 ___ 0.10 1854 __ 0.5 1838 _____ _ 01 ___ 61 1859 ____ 11 1835 ____ 1.50 1845 __ 2.0 1831 _____ _ 02 ___ 66 1847 ____ 27 1834 ___ 1.72 1845*__ none ________ _ 02 ___ 61 1847 ____ 4 1835 ____ 1.40 1847*__ 0.5 1849 _____ _ 03 ___ 67 1847 ____ 26 1833 ___ 1.00 1836*__ 4.0 1836*____ _ 03 ___ 53 1847 ____ 4 1835 ____ 1.80 1832 __ 1.5 1831 _____ _ 04 ___ 72 1847 ____ 19 1833 ___ 1.62 1844*__ none _________ _ 04 ___ 56 1848 ____ 15 1838 ____ 1.25 1845 __ 7.5 1859 _____ _ 05 ___ 70 1859 ____ 18 1854 ___ 1.80 1848*__ none _________ _ 05 ___ 49 1848 ____ 13 1831,54 __ 0.33 1842 __ 1.0 1857 _____ _ 06 ___ 66 1857 ____ 20 1854 ___ 1.40 1858 __ none __________ _ 06 ___ 55 1834 ____ 10 1831 ____ 1.50 1834 __ 7.5 1840 _____ _ 07 ___ 64 1857 ____ 26 1843,51 ___ 0.30 1852 __ none _______ _ 07 ___ 63 1852 ____ 13 1836 ____ 1.37 1850 __ 8.0 1843 _____ _ 08 ___ 65 1849 ____ 26 1843 ___ 1.45 1840*__ none _________ _ 08 ___ 59 1848 ____ 10 1831 ____ 1.07 1832*__ 2.0 1842 _____ _ 09 ___ 70 1857 ____ 22 1837 ___ 1.15 1840,46 __ 1.0 1848 ___ _ 09 ___ 59 1847 ____ 10 1854 ____ 1.75 1855*__ 1.0 1843 _____ _ 10 ___ 64 1857 ____ 20 1848 ___ 0.30 1840 ____ 0.1 1848 _____ _ 10 ___ 62 1847 ____ 13 1835 ____ 1.00 1846 __10.0 1846*_____ _ 11 ___ 61 1850 ____ 13 1848 ___ 0.60 1835 __ none __________ _ 11 ___ 64 1847 ____ 8 1835,45 ____ 1.25 1852 __ 3.3 1844 _____ _ 12 ___ 63 1833 ____ 19 1851 ___ 4.00 1854 __ none __________ _ 12 ___ 51 1847 ____ 7 1845 ____ 1.25 1835 __ 4.0 1835*_____ _ 13 ___ 64 1854 ____ 24 1843 ___ 2.50 1853 __ none __________ _ 13 ___ 65 1847 ____ 7 1845 ____ 1.05 1836 __ 3.0 1842 _____ _ 14 ___ 64 1849 ____ 22 1835 ___ 1.40 1835 __ 5.0 1837 ______ _ 14 ___ 59 1847 ____ -5 1834 ____ 2.25 1856 __ 2.0 1834*_____ _ 15 ___ 62 1839 ____ 22 1857 ___ 1.70 1851 __ 1.0 1858 ______ _ 15 ___ 63 1847*____ -8 1834 ____ 0.55 1831 __11.0 1831 _____ _ 16 ___ 66 1855 ____ 18 1832,37 _ 1.20 1850 __ none _________ _ 16 ___ 47 1840,48 __-12 1835*__ 1.50 1839*__ 5.0 1839*_____ _ 17 ___ 62 1847 ____ 20 1834 ___ 0.60 1855 __ none __________ _ 17 ___ 53 1848 ____ -8 1835 ____ 1.85 1833*__ 1.0 1831,47* _____ _ 18 ___ 65 1859 ____ 26 1833 ___ 2.88 1834* __ none ________ _ 18 ___ 53 1848,57 __ -5 1856 __ 1.80 1837 __ 2.0 1838,47* _____ _ 19 ___ 60 1853,59 __ 22 1833,36 _ 1.00 1848 __ 8.5 1848*____ _ 19 ___ 62 1848 ____ -2 1856 ____0.50 1850 __ 5.0 1850 _____ _ 20 ___ 70 1853*____ 18 1833 ___ 1.35 1841 __ none __________ _ 20 ___ 55 1849 ____ 3 1854 ____ 1.15 1856 __ 2.0 1845 _____ _ 21 ___ 69 1837 ____ 14 1833 ___ 2.25 1851 __ 1.0 1858 _____ _ 21 ___ 50 1836 ____ 6 1854 ____ 1.33 1836,42 __ 2.0 1841 _____ _ 22 ___ 58 1856 ____ 19 1839 ___ 1.60 1833 __ none _________ _ 22 ___ 51 1857 ____ 0 1831 ____ 1.10 1849* __ 10.0 1848 _____ _ 23 ___ 61 1853 ____ 17 1839 ___ 1.25 1858 __ 5.0 1835*_____ _ 23 ___ 53 1855 ____ -1 1831 ____ 1.75 1850 __ 6.0 1856 _____ _ 24 ___ 66 1854 ____ 8 1838 ___ 4.10 1847*__ none _________ _ 24 ___ 53 1852 ____ 7 1842,50 ____ 1.18 1841 __ 2.5 1834 _____ _ 25 ___ 61 1854*____ 4 1838 ___1.30 1833 __ 9.0 1837*_____ _ 25 ___ 45 1852* ____ 4 1840 ____ 1.10 1855 __ 3.0 1845,47 _____ _ 26 ___ 62 1849 ____ 6 1838 ___ 2.50 1852 __ none _________ _ 26 ___ 51 1836,44 ____ -1 1851 ____ 1.60 1835 __ 8.0 1840 _____ _ 27 ___ 57 1850 ____ 13 1837 ___ 3.85 1845*__ none ________ _ 27 ___ 44 1844.46.58 __ 1 1851 ____ 1.12 1839 __ 7.5 1844 _____ _ 28 ___ 53 1857 ____ 13 1837 ___ 0.75 1858 __ 7.5 1858 _____ _ 28 ___ 56 1852 ____ 1 1859 ____ 1.25 1850 __ 7.5 1831, 50_____ _ 29 ___ 51 1857 ____ 11 1847 ___1.00 1841,54 __10.0 1841 ___ _29 ___50 1851 ____ -2 1859 ____ 2.20 1853*__18.0 1853*_____ _ 30 ___ 63 1853*_____ 8 1847 ___ 0.90 1833 __ 4.0 1842 _____ _ 30 ___ 52 1847 ____ 0 1836 ____ 1.00 1834*__10.0 1834 _____ ________________________________________________________________ _31 ___ 50 1847,51 ___ 0 1836 ___ 1.25 1851,58 _ 2.0 1831,58 __ __________________________________________________________________________________ NOTES (November) __________________________________________ NOTES (December) _______________________ 2nd-3rd 1836 rain to snow, prec total 1.65" divided 0.65" ____ 2nd-3rd 1847 .. 1.25" 3rd was not a record, 2d total was 2.65" .. and 1.00" from timing, snow est from partial melt at 34F .. (no amount suggested) (0.65" 2nd not record after 1843 .. had 0.90" then 1845 1.72" for eventual record.) 4th-5th 1838 1.95" est 0.4" + 1.55" (both later broken) _______ 8th-9th 1837 2.14" divided equally as no indications otherwise from 8th-9th 1849 1.62" division unknown but about equal, _______ .. temps and pressure, the 9th portion broken by 1.75" in 1855. .. no records suggested either date. (same 1.40" 1853) 11th-13th 1854 6.00" rain noted, comments are limited _____ 9th-15th 1847 a very mild week average high 60.4 F .. snow and 23F by morning of 18th .. for such a deluge (rain all day 12th), have assigned 0.5"____ 10th 1837 also 7.5" snow ..11th, 4.0" 12th and 1.5" 13th (prev 12th 1836 1.05") ________ 12th 1835 _ 4.0" snow est, as storm snow to ice, damage done to trees .. slow-moving low from Midwest to New England assoc'd. ____ .. .. by ice accretion noted 13th 18th 1832 also 1.64" _________________________________________ 14th 1834 _ snow est 2.0" from duration, no amt or prec clue 19th 1840 also 7.5" snow __________________________________ 15th-16th 1839 .. 1.50" prec, mostly wet snow, no accum given but _______________________________________________________________blowing snow near end of event, 5.0" may be quite a low estimate 20th 1837 also 67 F _________________________________________ 16th 1835 lowest temp -12 evening of 16th, had been below -5 all day, from _______________________________________________________________comments it stayed around -12 sunset to 10 p.m., the morning low of -8F for _______________________________________________________________next day might be closer to -10 at midnight but is an easy record setter _______________________________________________________________for the date anyway. Mid-day 16th 5F _______________________________________________________________16th-17th 1841 1.85" looks to be about equal amounts which fall short of _______________________________________________________________earlier record amounts. "heavy storm" with strong winds noted. Max temp 44F 16th _______________________________________________________________ 17th 1847 1.45" which included some on 18th, later portions were snow, est 1.0" and _______________________________________________________________ 2.0" for ties with earlier known amounts. 23rd 1835 snow est as partial amount 3" before snow ends _________ 22nd 1844 total prec 0.75" a small amount on 23rd, very low barometric pressure _________________________________________________________________________later (dry slot), this rain was accompanied by dense fog and Caswell describes afternoon _________________________________________________________________________of 22nd as "dark" ... fog lifted to partial cloud cover before pressure began to rise, strong _________________________________________________________________________NW winds followed 23rd-24th (no snow noted in colder phase) ________________________________________________________________ 25th 1854 _ may have exceeded record high shown, no mid-day reading, but "very mild" 24th 1847 a very warm day, heavy rain in evening, Caswell states ____ 29th-30th 1853 ... 2.50" total prec, a "great snowstorm" with 16-18 inches all on 29th, .. total is 4.10" which conforms to the monthly total and there are no ... then it turned colder and a second snowfall of 3.0" late 30th was apparently part of .. other days with rain nearby. Amount seems excessive but is _______ ... the 2.50" mentioned, so I have assigned 2.20" to 29th precip record. Caswell noted .. accepted as lack of evidence for error. Weather map shows a ______ ... this was the most severe snowstorm in many years; it would be followed by more .. rather bland open wave pattern so if correct the heavy rain is ______ ... severe snowstorms every winter for most of the remainder of the journal, most .. likely frontal boundary of northward moving tropical air mass. _____ ... of those in Jan or Feb. The minimum barometric pressure was about 28.80" (2 p.m. 25th 1846 (prec 1.10") snow portion 5-7 inches, not quite a record ___ ... of 29th). also 1.50" prec and about 10" snow on 29th in 1855. 25th 1847 58F morning, no mid-day reading, day described as very .. mild, could have been 60-65F ... 1849 was 58F by evening. 1854 _____ 30th-31st 1857 1.10" (about 0.80" + 0.30") .. set a record of 61F after breaking 64F on 24th also from 1847. 27th 1845 3.85" described as a "violent" rain mid-day, .. weather map shows TS-like system moving up east coast .. and over RI and se MA, winds not described as very strong .. 1845 tropical systems do not include this (origin n.w. FL) 30th 1840 also 58F A general note __ comments in the journal do not match the weather records in parts of Nov 1859 and Dec 1859. They may be erroneously reprinted from another year. These notes have been ignored and only the posted numerical values are used (snow at 10:1 ratio if colder than 32F)

About 40% of the increase is probably due to the increase in the urban heat island which probably grew fastest between 1911 and 1950. That does not mean it should feel colder, it is what it is, but if the inference is that warming is at a certain rate for purely greenhouse gas driven causes, then that part of the increase is likely the other 60%. An urban-adjusted curve would show the relative strength of earlier peaks, and would reveal more of the temporary cooling of the 1957-81 period. However it's a moot point perhaps since a large percentage of the population of the northeast U.S. lives in a location subject to a significant urban heat island.

You may have heard about the "green comet" 2022 E3 (ZTF), tonight is the easiest find as it passes very close to Mars in the night sky. It's actually located between us and Mars and heading slowly away from the inner solar system after making its closest approach to the Sun on Jan 12, and its closest approach to earth on Feb 1st. If you have reasonably dark and clear skies available tonight, locate Mars and the comet will be in the same binocular field, especially if you place Mars in the bottom right quadrant. Mars is easy to find. You just need to locate Orion, the most familiar constellation, high in the south around 8 p.m., then look up higher to the right, where you will see two red star-like objects, the lower one is Aldebaran which is always in that position, and the higher one (somewhat brighter) is Mars. Then the comet will be passing just to the left of Mars as you see it, towards 0300h EST, but at the leisurely speed of the comet, it will be fairly close to Mars all night. I am hoping to get a view here although we have a lot of high overcast and a moderately dimmed sun at this point (it is 2:20 p.m. here). You wouldn't likely see the comet "naked eye" as it is sixth magnitude, fainter than such barely visible objects as the individual stars of the Pleiades (also in view above Mars) or various background stars that I might be able to spot here in the dark skies of the semi-wilderness. People reading this in more rural areas of the country have a better chance of spotting the comet. We passed Mars on December 8th at the full moon (and it was occulted at that time), so as Mars moves about half our speed, it has covered the portion of its orbit that we covered by January 9th. Our line of sight to Mars is back to around where it was in the sky on November 25th, that's due to parallax. If we were able to observe from a point back around our orbital position of January 9th, Mars would appear further to the left in the sky, over around Castor and Pollux over the other (left) shoulder of Orion. Mars will soon start to move prograde again as we reach the point of greatest angular difference and this optical illusion of retrograde motion ends. So for the comet, just locate Mars, get it into the lower right portion of your field of vision, and you should find the comet in the upper left, then center view in on it. Mars may then be at the edge of your field of vision or slightly outside it. If you don't get a chance tonight, there will be a similar close approach in the sky to Aldebaran about four days (nights) later (night of 14th-15th) with the closest approach about 8 p.m. 14th. It will appear slightly closer to Aldebaran than to Mars. Aldebaran is between us and the Hyades star cluster which presents well in binoculars. The comet may therefore appear to be a member of that, so its tail will be the distinguishing feature. Both tonight and the 14th-15th are good for avoiding problems of moonlight, the Moon rises about midnight tonight and quite late in the early morning hours on the 15th. So if you time it well, the Moon won't be interfering with your view at all.

It's interesting that many winters that are in the winter futility top ten (now and earlier) end up with some wintry weather in mid-March. 1916, 1932 and 1950 all had significant cold and snow after mid-February and into mid-March. 1992-93 hasn't made the top ten futility list but it must have been around 15th at some point by early February before it turned colder and eventually several significant snowfalls followed. Since the models are not showing much potential to late February, I guess mid-March is the last chance.

Mine expire April 30, 2025.

The Chesco data appear more steady-state than a lot of data sets I have examined over the past two decades. I am well aware of urban heat island contamination of data sets but I took a look at some locations that have no urban effect and find that the general consensus is valid, you can see the upward trend through any time period whether it's 1950-present, 1890-present or whatever. Urbanized settings are of course warming faster and show a larger differential. Toronto (downtown) has warmed about 2.5 C from mid-19th century to present. I think at least 1.1 C of that is urban heat island which leaves a warming of about 1.4 C. The only place where I find myself in disagreement with IPCC theory is where they say all of the recent warming is due to greenhouse gases and (at the risk of over-simplifying) the recent warming comes despite a background tendency towards natural cooling. I think it's more complicated than that, with no advanced human society present, I think the recent past would have displayed a modest warming. Several large El Nino events seem to have driven this warming (I would argue there was a natural cooling cycle around 1940-1980 which reversed with the strong 1982-83 El Nino and was sustained by several more). Now that opens up the difficult question, does the human induced warming signal extend to the creation of stronger El Ninos? That is a tough one to resolve. Since we don't have a fully accepted theory of what causes the Pacific oscillations in natural terms, only a statistical theory of when to expect them, we cannot easily say well the human activity interacts with this or that and produces stronger El Ninos. It may be true, or it may just be bad luck (if you don't want large warming) that on top of everything else we get these strong El Ninos. But anyway, the salient point is that one set of data (including Chesco) cannot alone reveal very much, it is more about the overall picture of all data and much of that is beyond dispute, for example, the well-maintained CET data set shows a clear warming signal 1987-present compared to pre-1987; arctic Canada locations that I analyzed (link to results below) show a 1.5 to 2.5 C warming in recent decades; after stripping out the urban heat island both Toronto and New York City show clear warming although not so much in terms of extreme summer warmth as most other indices. (link to my arctic Canada studies on the net-weather (UK) site) ... (software here doesn't like my link, try block copying this and going from there) http://www.community.netweather.tv/topic/87367-climate-change-study-at-cambridge-bay-resolute-and-eureka-nu-canada-1940-to-2022/page/3/#comment-4780813 or go to Net-weather, look for climate change subforum, this thread is near the middle of page one of menu. It's a complete analysis of all available data for four locations in arctic Canada.

Some other extremes of interest, -40 (F and C) at Bancroft ON which is roughly 150 miles west of Ottawa in forested lake country, and -42 F (-41.4 C) at Algonquin Park east gate, which is about 50 miles north of Bancroft. To compare, I've seen -40 to -42 F temperatures just slightly further south, in the Peterborough area and north of Lake Simcoe (in 1976 and 1994). In the Feb 1934 extreme cold event, Bancroft had a reading of -50 F (on Feb 9th) so this gives you some idea how this air mass compares historically, with a similar if less extreme pressure pattern. The lowest reading at Ottawa airport (which is outside the urban heat island there although downwind from it) was -26F (-32.2 C).

Maybe this northwest gale will blow the warm water away and we can get going on some actual winter? Or maybe not.

A R _ T I _ B L A S T I'd like to solve, with spelchek

These are excerpts from Alexis Caswell's weather journal at Brown University Providence RI. Three classic cold outbreaks from 1855 to 1857 with his comments. FEB 1855 _ After several rather cold days, severe cold set in during the 6th, when it was -3F at sunrise, -7F at mid-day and -14F in the evening; by morning of the 7th Caswell measured -15F and commented it was the coldest reading in the 24 years he had kept up the observations. The mercury only recovered to 10F at mid-day, started to fall a bit in the evening but then snow began and became heavy, Caswell measured 1.25" liquid and stated that 12 to 14 inches of snow had fallen by 9th, with moderate northeast winds drifting it considerably. It stayed rather cold for a few more days then a thaw with heavy rain followed (2.80" fell 14th-15th, temperatures recovered to the low 40s). JAN 1856 _ He describes a "violent" two-day snowstorm on the 6th with 18-20 inches of snow, very strong northeast winds, and mid-day temperatures only 11F and 19F. Temperatures struggled up to 30F by the 8th with a light 2" snowfall followed by a sharp temperature drop to -8F the morning of the 9th, and a mid-day reading of only 2F. This cold wave moderated slightly on the 10th and severe cold did not return until the 25th when readings were between 5 and 7 F with strong northwest winds. The first half of February was generally very cold, with a remarkably fast drop from 40s to single digits on the 12th, and -3F on the morning of 13th. Then another severe cold wave struck in March, perhaps the coldest March weather recorded in the region. Mid-day readings on 9th and 10th were only 11F and 13F with a morning low of -2F on 10th. Caswell commented that the moderately strong west to northwest winds at the start of this cold wave made it excessively cold. Only 2" of snow fell before it turned cold but given the winter in general there was probably at least some snow cover before that fell. There were enough variations in temperature to lead me to speculate that it was probably a frozen snow cover of about 8-10 inches at that point. Warming later in the month was very modest and the 31st had a temperature range of 19 to 31 degrees, Caswell said this was "cold but not unpleasant" so I guess he was resigned to it by then. JAN 1857 _ There had been severe cold on Dec 18th (range -5 to 2 F) and the entire month of January 1857 was extremely cold with a mean around 15F. There were no 40 degree temperatures until the 27th. A snowfall of 10" on the 3rd probably remained untouched during two weeks of frigid weather, despite generally dry conditions. It became exceptionally cold on the 18th with -9F in the morning, slowly moderating during the day but then a ferocious snowstorm began, lasting through the 19th with strong northeast to north winds and according to Caswell, it was an exceptional and violent snowstorm, 2.50" of liquid gave 18" of snow although it was much drifted by extreme winds (he used a five point wind speed scale and rarely used the 5, gives that for sunrise 19th). Temperatures during the blizzard never exceeded 12F. Snow fell to mid-day after which he says the air was "full of snow" indicating severe blowing snow. However once the blizzard passed, a slight moderation followed with a high of 36F on the 21st. Light snow fell at times on 21st and early 22nd and then the temperature began to fall rapidly. It was -6F by 10 p.m. 22nd and stood at -14F at sunrise 23rd with a "force 4 (out of 5) NW wind" making it "exceptionally severe to be outside." The mid-day reading was only -5F making it about equal to Feb 7, 1855 for sustained cold. The next morning (23rd, a Saturday in 1857) it was back down to -14 F. (an aside, this event produced record cold in Toronto also, the lowest reading was -22F and a high of -13 F on the 22nd). There was slight but steady moderation thereafter, and in February 1857 temperatures swang to the other extreme, with severe flooding as a result. Starting with a heavy fall of wet snow and rain on Jan 31, two weeks of incredible oscillations followed (my wording not his), with a heavy rainfall of 1.25" and temperatures near 50F on the 7th-8th with dense fog not surprisingly. It fell to -3F on the morning of the 12th, accompanied by a barometer reading of 30.87" which Caswell says was the highest he had ever seen to that point. It then turned very mild with more heavy rainfalls. The highs on 16th to 18th were at least 55, 61, 57 (his mid-day readings, he does not mention any specific highs as he sometimes did during extreme spells). I think I recall reading about severe flooding on the Connecticut River during this event although it could have been due to the the earlier 7th-8th rainfall. No doubt ice jams were prolific given the depth of earlier snow and severity of cold. Anyway, this seems to be the time to set your time machine, 1854 to 1857 would be epic. Before those three winters, the winter of 1853-54 was mostly more "normal" but there was a heavy snowstorm on Dec 30, 1853 leaving a cover of 16-18 inches. The summer of 1854 had severe heat waves and forest fires must have erupted somewhere in upstate NY or maybe closer, as his comments include thick smoke at times. The highest temperatures Caswell ever witnessed were in the high 90s, he never saw a 100+ reading. Caswell (who lived from 1799 to 1877 and was a professor at Brown U with interests in astronomy as well as meteorology) kept this journal from 1831 to 1860, and became associated with the Smithsonian Institute, part of a movement to create an American weather bureau which was realized at some point during his later years, so perhaps we could say he was the original weather weenie (unless that was Benjamin Franklin). His comments sound remarkably modern in places despite the change in the language from the mid-19th century to today. He was certainly fortunate to be observing through many very extreme years (and several very active solar cycles with the dark skies of his era, producing many vivid descriptions of aurorae), in particular these three years, but also some other remarkable events that are not seen nowadays, such as a mixed rain and snow nor'easter in the first week of October, 1841. He had one brush with a hurricane (October 7, 1849) but did not use the term hurricane and I have to wonder if he knew it was a hurricane at the time (I feel certain he would have known of the existence of hurricanes). The eye of it seemed to pass near his location during the 7th. He recorded 2.75" of rain and noted heavy rain with thunder around 07-08h 7th. If you want to see this journal, I would suggest you go to the Alexis Caswell page on wikipedia and look for the link under Biography. I tried block-copying the link but as I live in Canada I think it takes me to a part of google that you cannot access, so I would have to think your link will be different but takes you to the same place, where there are links to an e-book showing the full journal. It's worth seeing. He didn't comment very often in the first decade and became more and more active with the comments. His reports include three daily temperature and barometer reports, cloud amounts, and wind data using that five point scale I mentioned. His precip reports are mostly daily and sometimes two or three day events just summed up without breaking them down by days.

According to 18z RGEM the thickness drops to 498 dm from Newburgh to Islip by 06z and NYC is at about 500. Winds will no doubt slacken considerably towards dawn as the high approaches. Could imagine -10F or lower in Hudson valley and will guess overnight lows of 0 or 1 F at CP and JFK, -3 at EWR, ISP and LGA. No snow cover or those could be -5 F to -8 F. Seems unfair to get it this cold without an antecedent snowfall (of any consequence) or apparently a post-cold spell snowfall right away at least. I don't think we've been below -20 C here all winter and we have had a constant snow pack of 20-40 cm or more since early November.

Some 6 p.m. temps upstream in eastern Ontario .. Bancroft -27 C (-17 F) Ottawa -26 C (-15 F) Peterborough -23 C (-10 F) Kingston -23 C (-10 F) Trenton -22 C (-8 F) Toronto airport -16 C (3 F) Record low for Toronto (downtown) for morning of 4th is -29 C (-20 F) set in 1863 before any appreciable urban effect existed (the downtown weather station at that time was in a rural setting on the edge of the much smaller city). A more recent minimum downtown was -7F in 1970. The lowest maximum on today's date was -18 C (0 F) set in 1886. It was -19 C (-3 F) for a maximum on the 4th. There were even colder spells in Feb 1855 and Feb 1895 starting on the 4th but peaking in severity 5th-7th. I don't think it can reach -20F nowadays in downtown Toronto, but other stations without records in the 19th century are sure to set records tomorrow morning. The lowest temperature at 6 p.m. anywhere in Ontario was -31 C (-24 F) at Moosonee on James Bay and it was also -30 C (-22 F) at Timmins in northeastern Ontario. In Quebec the 6 p.m. highlights are -26 C Montreal (-15 F), -29 C (-20 F) Quebec City, and also at Sherbrooke near the NH border. Many locations in central Quebec around -30 to -35 C and coldest is -39 C (-38F) in the subarctic community of Puvirnituq.

That unusual volcanic event in Tonga blasted a lot of water vapor into the upper atmosphere. I've read that this, unlike volcanic ash dust veils, could have a warming influence. The location is in the southern tropics but effects could have spread into eastern Asia and the western North Pacific by now. This could also be related to the strange weather patterns we see this winter in North America? Just another part of the overall bad hand we have been dealt.

The GFS, I think that is short for great for second week because it usually is. Snowfall opportunities in the northeast, not too clearly defined, followed by a powerful second cold wave, looks quite ominous for central states near end of the run (19th). Sort of 1979 vibes with this. Could come to nothing but something to track anyway.

Table of forecasts for February 2023 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Stormchaser Chuck _________+5.5 _ +6.0 _ +6.5 ___ +5.5 _ +5.0 _ +3.5 __ +1.0 _-2.0 _ -3.0 RJay _________________________+5.0 _ +5.0 _ +5.0 ___ +3.5 _ +5.0 _ +4.0 __-1.0 _ -1.0 _ -1.0 BKViking _____________________+3.8 _ +3.4 _ +3.4 ___+2.2 _ +3.2 _ +1.2 __+0.8_ +0.2 _+0.2 so_whats_happening ________+3.3 _ +3.3 _ +3.1 ___ +3.0 _ +2.3 _ +2.0 __-2.0 _ -1.2 _ -0.8 wxdude64 ___________________+3.1 _ +3.0 _ +2.8 ___ +0.6 _ +2.4 _ +1.3 __ -0.7 _-0.7 _ -0.4 wxallannj ____________________ +2.9 _ +3.2 _ +3.0 ___+2.0 _ +2.2 _ +1.6 __ -0.6 _-1.2 _ -0.4 ___ Consensus ______________ +2.9 _ +3.1 _ +2.9 ___ +2.1 _ +2.6 _ +1.6 ___ -0.6 _ -1.2 _ -0.9 Roger Smith _________________+2.8 _ +3.2 _ +3.5 ___ +2.5 _ +3.5 _ +1.7 __ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 Tom _________________________ +2.7 _ +2.3 _ +1.9 ___ +1.4 __+2.8 _ +1.6 __ -0.4 _ -0.9 _ -1.1 DonSutherland1 _____________+2.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.7 ___ +1.0 _ +3.5 _ +1.5 ___ -1.0 _ -2.3 _ -1.6 hudsonvalley21 _____________ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 ___ +1.8 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 ___ +0.2 _-1.4 _ -0.8 RodneyS ____________________ +1.5 _ +2.1 __ +1.4 ___ +2.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___-1.6 _ -1.8 _ -1.6 Scotty Lightning ____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 ______________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is colder than all forecasts for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, IAH. Persistence (added Sep 2023) __ _ Jan 2023 ano s ___________ ___ Persistence ___________ +7.7 _ +9.8 _ +7.9 __ +7.1 _ +6.9 _ +4.1 __ -6.7 _ -2.9 _ +0.7

It's interesting that no readings above 65 occurred between 7th and 14th inclusive. Perhaps this year will void that outcome. The record high for the 7th is particularly low-hanging and could go soon, you would think.I have also listed any other readings not (or no longer) record highs in the 65+ category. Also listed are any "warmest since" more ancient records (two from 1874 and 1890 as well as LYD 1880 have survived). February record high maxima and minima for NYC (Central Park) Date _____ Hi max ______ Hi min __________ Other maxima 65+ (and warmest since records set before 1980) Feb 01 ___ 67 1989 ____ 50 1988 _________ Feb 02 ___ 59 1988 ____ 42 1952 Feb 03 ___ 64 1991 ____ 46 1999,2006 Feb 04 ___ 68 1991 ____ 46 1991 _________ Feb 05 ___ 70 1991 ____ 51 1991 __________ also 68 in 1890, 65 in 2019 Feb 06 ___ 68 2008 ____ 42 1884,1938 Feb 07 ___ 56 2020 ____ 42 1904 __________previous record was 54 (1938) Feb 08 ___ 62 2017 ____ 48 1965 Feb 09 ___ 63 1990 ____ 46 2005 Feb 10 ___ 61 1990,2001_ 43 1999 Feb 11 ___ 65 1960,2009 _50 1966 Feb 12 ___ 62 1999,2018 _ 45 1966 Feb 13 ___ 64 1951 ____ 47 1880 Feb 14 ___ 63 1946 ____ 50 1949 __________ 1949 was 59F, warmest since 1949 are 1990, 2011 58F Feb 15 ___ 73 1949 ____ 49 1984 ___________ 69 in 1954, warmest since that 62 in 2018 Feb 16 ___ 71 1954 ____ 44 2002 ___________ warmest since 1954 was 60 in 1976 (also 62 in 1921) Feb 17 ___ 68 2022 ____ 49 2022 ___________ also 67 in 1976 Feb 18 ___ 68 1981 ____ 48 1981 ____________ also 67 in 2011 Feb 19 ___ 66 1997 ____ 53 2017 ____________ also 65 in 2017 Feb 20 ___ 69 1930,39__48 1939 ____________ also 67 in 2018 Feb 21 ___ 78 2018 ____55 2018 _____________ also 68 in 1930, 67 in 1953 Feb 22 ___ 69 1997 ____ 46 1996 _____________also 66 in 1874, 1991 Feb 23 ___ 72 1874 ____ 55 1985 _____________ (warmest since 1874 was 70F in 1985, also 68F in 2022, 65F in 2017). Feb 24 ___ 75 1985 ____ 58 2017 _____________ also 65 in 1930, 1961 Feb 25 ___ 75 1930 ____ 51 1930 _____________ also 70 in 1976, 67 in 1985 Feb 26 ___ 65 1890 ____ 49 1976 _____________ warmest since 1890 was 62 in 1951, 1976 Feb 27 ___ 72 1997 ____ 49 1976 _____________ also 68 in 1880, 67 in 1976, 66 in 1971 Feb 28 ___ 67 1976 ____ 47 1903,10,2017 ________ warmest since 1976 was 62 in 1997 Feb 29 ___ 69 1880 ____ 47 1896, 2016 ______ warmest since 1880 was 67 in 1976 (61 in 2016) -- - - - - - - - - - - --

It's interesting that no readings above 65 occurred between 7th and 14th inclusive. Perhaps this year will void that outcome. The record high for the 7th is particularly low-hanging and could go soon, you would think.I have also listed any other readings not (or no longer) record highs in the 65+ category. Also listed are any "warmest since" more ancient records (two from 1874 and 1890 as well as LYD 1880 have survived). February record high maxima and minima for NYC (Central Park) Date _____ Hi max ______ Hi min __________ Other maxima 65+ (and warmest since records set before 1980) Feb 01 ___ 67 1989 ____ 50 1988 _________ Feb 02 ___ 59 1988 ____ 42 1952 Feb 03 ___ 64 1991 ____ 46 1999,2006 Feb 04 ___ 68 1991 ____ 46 1991 _________ Feb 05 ___ 70 1991 ____ 51 1991 __________ also 68 in 1890, 65 in 2019 Feb 06 ___ 68 2008 ____ 42 1884,1938 Feb 07 ___ 56 2020 ____ 42 1904 __________previous record was 54 (1938) Feb 08 ___ 62 2017 ____ 48 1965 Feb 09 ___ 63 1990 ____ 46 2005 Feb 10 ___ 61 1990,2001_ 43 1999 Feb 11 ___ 65 1960,2009 _50 1966 Feb 12 ___ 62 1999,2018 _ 45 1966 Feb 13 ___ 64 1951 ____ 47 1880 Feb 14 ___ 63 1946 ____ 50 1949 __________ 1949 was 59F, warmest since 1949 are 1990, 2011 58F Feb 15 ___ 73 1949 ____ 49 1984 ___________ 69 in 1954, warmest since that 62 in 2018 Feb 16 ___ 71 1954 ____ 44 2002 ___________ warmest since 1954 was 60 in 1976 (also 62 in 1921) Feb 17 ___ 68 2022 ____ 49 2022 ___________ also 67 in 1976 Feb 18 ___ 68 1981 ____ 48 1981 ____________ also 67 in 2011 Feb 19 ___ 66 1997 ____ 53 2017 ____________ also 65 in 2017 Feb 20 ___ 69 1930,39__48 1939 ____________ also 67 in 2018 Feb 21 ___ 78 2018 ____55 2018 _____________ also 68 in 1930, 67 in 1953 Feb 22 ___ 69 1997 ____ 46 1996 _____________also 66 in 1874, 1991 Feb 23 ___ 72 1874 ____ 55 1985 _____________ (warmest since 1874 was 70F in 1985, also 68F in 2022, 65F in 2017). Feb 24 ___ 75 1985 ____ 58 2017 _____________ also 65 in 1930, 1961 Feb 25 ___ 75 1930 ____ 51 1930 _____________ also 70 in 1976, 67 in 1985 Feb 26 ___ 65 1890 ____ 49 1976 _____________ warmest since 1890 was 62 in 1951, 1976 Feb 27 ___ 72 1997 ____ 49 1976 _____________ also 68 in 1880, 67 in 1976, 66 in 1971 Feb 28 ___ 67 1976 ____ 47 1903,10,2017 ________ warmest since 1976 was 62 in 1997 Feb 29 ___ 69 1880 ____ 47 1896, 2016 ______ warmest since 1880 was 67 in 1976 (61 in 2016) -- - - - - - - - - - - --

It's not quite as bad (for most of us) as my preliminary scoring, turns out it has been a while since I last had to apply the different system for the larger anomalies and I had one part of it backwards which was shaving points off the lower scores more than necessary. Now that I'm working my way through the final scores, most people are going to score about 100 points more than I first indicated. Also IAH came in much colder than it was looking a few days ago with big negatives on 30th and 31st, net result of which is everyone gained quite a few points on that forecast. You may still come to the same conclusion but you're not that far behind a few others and the higher scores didn't go up as much as the lower scores so the spread is a bit less extreme. I corrected the explanation offered for the 1 and 2 point scoring deduction zones to read correctly. Back to the scoring now ... it won't take that long as there's no annual scoring to add up. This is it. (LATER EDIT) _ Scoring is now complete, scroll back two posts above.

I think another unusual feature of Jan 2023 is how inactive the atmosphere was for a winter month. This is illustrated by the fact that Toronto managed to produce a top five month with a maximum monthly temperature of only 6 C which is near the bottom of the list of January extremes, only the really cold months have a lower value and more than two-thirds (including a lot of below normal Januaries) have a higher monthly extreme. It was almost an atmospheric dead zone over the region in general. It was similar here, day after day of almost no weather. I wonder if besides global warming we are seeing a phenomenon of global blanding; much is made of the potential for extreme weather and high variability in this era, but a lot of the time the weather seems to do almost nothing for days on end. It is becoming the main adversary of weather forums in many different regions, having so little significant weather. It actually makes the weather of the 1980s look exciting by comparison, and the 1970s hyper-active. I'd be interested if this is anyone else's take, and I realize a case can be made for the extreme weather paradigm, it's just not overly frequent.

+2.8 __ +3.2 __ +3.5 __ +2.5 __ +3.5 __ +1.7 __ -1.5 __ -1.5 __ -1.5 (possibly)

The 1932 record will likely fall as it would require a minimum of around 18F at midnight to preserve a tie, possibly lower as I estimated the mean max would remain close to value through 30th of 48.7F. However, if we consider the relative urban heat island magnitudes in 1932 and 2023, the differential may prove to be slightly less, meaning that in a list that is "u.h.i. adjusted" 1932 could remain ahead of 2023. It won't be quite the same record shattering that was done on several occasions for December. This is a table of the top 12 Decembers including ranks for Toronto, and it can be seen that 1982 began a series of record breakers (from 1891) that for NYC included 1984, 2001 and 2015, which added an incredible margin of 3.7 C or 6.7 F deg to the existing record (2015 vs 2001) and 4.7 C (8.5 F) for 2015 compared to the 1891 record first broken by 1982. For Toronto the existing record was (NYC's 12th place December) 1923, and this was only tied in 1982 and 1998, then broken in 2001 and eventually 2015 (a margin of 2.0 C). At both locations the old record was eclipsed by nine or ten other years (some of which never held the record) after 1982. January has had a different evolution but perhaps in the future will begin to break the 1932 record more frequently in the style of December and also February which has many recent contenders also. The different performance of various months in this recent climate warming era is an odd detail as some months have moved ahead more frequently and with a larger margin than other months. DECEMBER RECENT WARM MONTHS at NYC and TORONTO compared by ranks Rank _ Year __ Mean (C,F) ___ Tor rank, Tor mean 01 _____ 2015 ___ 10.44 (50.8) ______ 01 ________ 5.2 02 ____ 2001 ____ 6.72 (44.1) _______ 02 ________ 3.2 03t ____1984 ____ 6.56 (43.8) _______ 10 _________ 1.7 03t ____2021 ____ 6.56 (43.8) _______ 04 _________2.5 05 _____2006 ____ 6.44 (43.6) _______ 03 ________ 2.9 06 ____ 2011 _____ 6.28 (43.3) _______ 09 ________ 2.0 07 _____1998 _____ 6.22 (43.2) ______ t05 ________ 2.3 08 _____1982 _____ 6.00 (42.8) ______ t05 ________ 2.3 09 _____1990 _____ 5.89 (42.6) ______ 33 _________ 0.7 10 _____ 1891 _____ 5.72 (42.3) ______ t27 ________ 0.8 11 ______1994 _____ 5.67 (42.2) ______ 11 __________1.6 12 ______1923 _____ 5.56 (42.0) ______ t05 ________ 2.3 (for the top 12 NYC Decembers, all but 08 and 12 for Toronto are present in the list. The values missing for Toronto are 08 _ 2012 which was 13th for NYC 12 _ 1965 and 1881 tied, these ranked t20th and t28th for NYC

Liberty Bell and anyone else interested in pre-1869 NYC weather, some indication of weather patterns could be gained from reading the daily meteorological journal of Alexis Caswell in Providence RI (it extends from about 1831 to 1860). He was more or less one of the main founders of American meteorology through the Smithsonian Institution who have preserved his journals. You can read a bit about him at wikipedia, I noted that he was born on today's date in 1799 and died in January of 1877. I attempted to post a link to the weather journal. For some reason the software here will not accept the link (possibly because there's a google.ca domain?) ... anyway, try going through the wikipedia article as the link there works for me (it's at the bottom of the text identified as Smithsonian blah blah ...) I intended to set it at Jan 1857 because that month had some severe cold that was accompanied by strong northwest winds, Toronto fell a bit lower than his -14 F reading (to -22 F) but I would imagine NYC was in that ball park too. Also his three daily readings do not necessarily capture extremes and sometimes he made notes of those in the marginal comments. This is the link I have, perhaps if you block copy it and try it directly, it might work. http://www.books.google.ca/books?id=oYY_AAAAcAAJ&pg=PA143&source=gbs_toc_r&cad=3#v=onepage&q&f=false Possibly a U.S. based wikipedia user will get a different link to the journal. If anyone succeeds in opening it could you post the link that works? This link works for me as supplied but not as copied.