Roger Smith

This thing is over me here and we are seeing three times the model predicted snowfall (easily a foot and maybe more, we had a forecast of 3-6 inches). Some model runs have had a sub-960 mb low over central ON and the trajectory looks perfect for another mega-squall event around BUF and wNY. On current guidance I would think 60-90 inches quite possible 24th-26th with extreme winds (although squall bands tend to do odd things with winds inside the heavy snow zones). Similar to mid-November, your seasonals are going to go through the roof. Is Buffalo scheduled to be playing at home during any of this? There were events something similar to this in Nov 1970 and Jan 1971, that was quite a snow belt winter.

Just hope Belicheck doesn't send in the play. Mind you, you want this thing to run back towards its own end zone.

Both NAM and GFS look a bit off in their handling of the short wave rounding the base of the trof, they seem to be trying to develop the eventual low out of the leading wave and trof in place ahead of the energy and they suppress the short wave as a sort of last piece of energy for the southeast U.S. cold front. I think earlier model runs may have had a better depiction with the energy rounding the base of the trof deepening over MO and IL rather than this concept of the low forming in IN and moving to MI. Either way all of the expectations for MI, sw ON, wNY snow belts would verify but there may be a better (worse for public) outcome for WI and IL, maybe even IA and MO. Later model runs (perhaps starting with 12z Euro) may start to drift back to the earlier more intense solutions. I can't see how the overperforming start here would translate into a weaker short wave rounding the base after DEN gets a brief blizzard tonight and Wed a.m., would expect a snowstorm to develop in OK and s KS as the low drops into Texas. I think it will stay more of a dominant feature rather than getting absorbed into some developing low way out ahead of the main energy.

FWIW the low moving on shore now has overperformed in terms of snowfall across southern BC, Vancouver region has 8-12 inches after a forecast of 3-6, and here inland (north of Spokane at the border) we also have 6-8 with same forecast. The low is just south of Bellingham WA with a leading wave near Spokane.

06z NAM has the center steadily deepening to 970 mb tracking up western L Huron to near APN MI by end of run 18z Friday and would give sw MI possible 2-3 feet of lake effect snow with 60 mph wind gusts. From that track I think ORD would see 5-8" and that would increase around southern L Mich to 24 inches by Benton Harbor, probably about 18" for SBN mostly lake effect. Storm pulls in Atlantic moisture but probably too late if this model verified, heavy snow for ne ON. Lake Erie squall potential looks high after fropa and could give BUF another heavy fall late 23rd into 24th. Could all change on later guidance of course, but there seems to be no plausible track that would fail to dump very heavy snow in sw MI and n IN. Given the likely temps and wind speeds, long-lead warnings were certainly justified and even 1-3 inches of snow blowing around in those conditions would be very dangerous.

For potential comparison to 23rd-24th change in NYC max temp, these are the top twelve downward differentials from day to day, 1869 to 2022: _ Rank ___ Dates ___________ From _ To ___ diff _ 01 _____1918 Feb 20-21 ____59 __ 18 ____-41 _ 02 ____ 1921 Mar 28-29 ___82 __ 42 ___ -40 _ 03 ____ 1927 Dec 8 - 9 ____65 __ 26 ___ -39 _ 04 ____ 1915 Apr 26-27 ___ 92 __ 54 ___ -38 _t05 ____ 1896 Feb 16-17 ___ 44 ___ 7 ___ -37 _t05 ____ 1978 Jan 9-10 ____ 58 __ 21 ___ -37 _t05 ____ 2003 Apr 16-17 ___ 88 __ 51 ___ -37 _t08 ____ 1876 Jan 10-11 ____60 __ 24 ___ -36 _t08 ____ 1911 Nov 12-13 ____69 __ 33 ___ -36 _t08 ____ 1933 Feb 8 - 9 ____ 60 __ 24 ___ -36 _t08 ____ 1970 Feb 3 - 4 _____56 __ 20 ___ -36 _t08 ____ 2014 Jan 6 - 7 ____ 55 __ 19 ____-36

This alleged warmup after the holiday cold snap looks like a 10-15 day event with zonal flow from Pacific across the continent, it will be mild (40s to low 50s) but maybe not record mild. Tends to be a dry pattern also with weak frontal systems. Similar events in Jan 1948 and 1961 dominated first halves of months that turned bitterly cold later, with coastal storm opportunities. Or perhaps this goes a bit more like Jan 1982 which had a mild opening week before deep cold and coastal storms developed after about the 8th. So it may not be such a bad thing to see this pattern change across the west, could reset a good pattern in the climatological peak of winter. We have been consistently 4-8 F below normal around here since about 20th of October, and it is particularly cold today (current mid-afternoon reading 5F or -15C with 45 cm snow cover). CFS coastal? Not gonna happen, at least not with that intensity. The big story will be that very sharp temperature drop on the 23rd. My guess, 57F noon, 32F 6 p.m., 18F midnight. Will run a program on NYC data base to find largest day to day differentials in max temp, 23rd-24th may give whatever record exists there a run. Maybe that Nov 1911 event would win top prize.

At this stage it's probably more like the average positional error, I think the pattern emerging will sustain a 960-970 low somewhere within 200 miles of Detroit in any direction. There is probably about a 10% chance of this continuing to push further north on later model runs to the extent that MSP and DLH get the sweet spot, and there's maybe a 10% chance of it returning to a coastal, a 20% chance it's more like an Apps runner, and various other percentages closer in to the consensus track today. With the heights crashing on all guidance and -40 C air mass emerging out of northwest Canada already today, can't see how this fails to deepen explosively once it rounds the base of the trough. I think there could be minor shifts back towards the Ohio valley to Cleveland sort of a track as the cold air pushes in ahead of the final wave and forces it to take a sharper curve around TX-AR. As intense as this looks now, there are ways it can actually become more intense. It really doesn't pull in a lot of Gulf moisture for example but a sharper trough might do that.

Not sure about the loop near southern L Michigan on the ECM, but anyway, all models now coming into a fairly good agreement that this is essentially a windstorm with severe lake effect squall potential and moderate synoptic scale due to lack of moisture and short duration of over-running at any given location. It's a bit different in evolution from 1-26-1978 in that it deepens over the Midwest rather than bombing out from a southern origin (AL to Lake Huron for Jan 78). Looks like a top ten wind event and depends where you are relative to squall bands for snow or actual blizzard, but ground blizzard would be widespread given some snow and the fierce wind gusts. The chill would also be lethal. The timing could hardly be worse, start of a weekend Christmas travel period. That's going to turn into a four-day stay at some stranger's farm house in some cases. Pack gear.

I'm reading this as a slow transition event that eventually changes over to snow just about everywhere, without the huge gradients and snow in the 4-8 inch range for most, after some rain and sleet for some. It looks like a coastal snowfall event near the end of the precip but that could be melting on contact snow south of BOS. But I only have success with the likes of Nemo and Blizzard of 1888.

Yes, you'll find net-weather to be very similar, even the graphics program is similar. If anything, it's a larger forum than this one. The link to it is here: http://www.community.netweather.tv and also if you want to visit an Irish weather forum, there is one on boards.ie, which is an all-subject public forum for the Irish internet community. You can find the weather forum in the science area under topics.

First look at anomalies and projections ... ____________________________DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA (11th) ____ (anom 10d) ____+0.8 _+2.5 _+4.0 __+3.0 _+6.7_+12.2___+4.2 _+1.3 _-4.7 (21st) ____ (anom 20d) ____-0.5 _-0.2 _+1.7 __ +1.3 _+2.9 _+6.4 ___+0.1 _ -1.6 _-4.9 (11th) ____ (p anom 20d) __ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+3.0_ +7.0 ___ +1.5 _ 0.0 _ -2.5 (11th) ____ (p anom 27d)__+0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.5 _+2.0 _+5.0 ___+1.5 _ 0.0 _ -1.0 (21st) ____ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 _-0.8 __0.0 ___-1.0 _+1.5 _ +4.0 ___ -1.0 _-1.5 _-3.0 (28th) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.5 _-1.0 __+1.0___-2.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ___-1.5 _-0.5 _-3.5 ( 1st Jan) _ anomalies ____ -1.6 _-0.6 _ +1.6 ___-1.4 _ +0.2 _+1.7 ___-1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2 _______ (11th) _ After a rather mild start in the east, central regions, colder at times to 20th, bringing anomalies closer to normal. The deep cold in the Pac NW region may gradually flip to a somewhat milder pattern. The projections 21st to 27th are mainly based on persistence of trends 11th-20th. (21st) _ Much colder for several days in central and eastern locations, but a milder trend after 26th may partially offset the changes. Turning milder in the Pac NW so the current anomalies will be shaved down a bit. (28th) _ Tweaked the projections based on latest actual anomalies and guidance. ( 1st Jan _ all scoring updated )

Odd isn't it that Feb 15 was close to all-time record cold for winter months and then Dec 15 was the opposite, followed by a top class snowstorm in Jan 16, Here's a factoid for Don and other climate buffs, locally it was the coldest November since 1985. Seems to be evolving into a similar December for us, it remained rather cold but came up almost to the December normal value. I don't know if 1985-86 is much of a winter analogue in your area, I recall what it was like in Ontario, very cold around Christmas 85 then a lot of rather boring near-average weather without a lot of snow for that region. A very warm March followed.

"White Juan" as we called it in the great white north, coming five months after Hurricane Juan hit Halifax hard in 2003. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2004&maand=2&dag=20&uur=000&var=1&map=2&model=noaa Feb 19-20 2004 massive blizzard in Nova Scotia, PEI and parts of NL. Wikipedia article on it here: http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Juan

NYC _ 44.4" EWR _ 46.2" MMU_ 50.1" ISP __ 53.5" SWF _ 60.0" There will be some big storms this winter, and I won't claim the prize if second wants to have that dinner unless it's at the Flying Steamshovel Pub in Rossland BC that I can reach on foot (register your whereabouts with local police just to be on the safe side) ...

Table of forecasts for 2022-23 winter snowfall contest * (in table) I made an executive decision for Scotty Lightning who only checks in occasionally and may not have seen my p.m., have added his forecasts to values in the Nov 30th post as his BUF prediction (45") was almost the same as what had already fallen (37") (a lot of snowfall contests run Dec 1 to Mar 31 so that might be what he was thinking -- it would be extraordinary if BUF had only 8" of snow in meteorological winter). I also added the rather small values that had already fallen at some other locations. Also wxallannj you're welcome to post a forecast, if it arrives soon I will include it, there isn't that much happening yet. Let's say deadline is whenever snow starts falling in any significant quantity. Forecasts are listed in descending order of DCA predictions. Consensus is median value. (later) Scotty eventually confirmed that he wanted to add the amounts already measured before contest deadline. Highest station forecasts are in bold type and lowest are underlined. FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV BKViking ________________________ 25.0 _52.0 _ 60.0 __ 38.0 _50.0 _90.0 __ 60.0 _18.0_ 90.0 Roger Smith _____________________22.2 _44.4 _ 55.5 __ 55.5 _66.6_133.0 __ 52.0 _15.9 _ 88.8 RJay _____________________________20.0 _50.0 _ 65.0 __ 31.0 _27.0 _ 86.0 __ 50.0 _15.0 _ 80.0 wxdude64 _______________________19.5 _40.0 _ 58.5 __ 42.8 _50.5 _101.0 __ 41.6 _ 8.7 _ 104.0 so_whats_happening ____________ 18.0 _38.0 _ 64.0 __ 45.0 _380_ 110.0 __ 42.0 _11.0 _ 84.0 Scotty Lightning*_________________16.0 _23.0 _ 33.0 __ 44.1 _37.5 _ 81.9 __ 65.9 _ 5.9 _ 84.0 ___ Consensus ___________________16.0 _40.0 _ 55.5 __ 44.1 _49.9 _ 93.7 __ 50.0 _ 8.2 _ 90.0 Tom _____________________________ 14.2 _ 41.1 _ 49.6 __ 53.9 _49.9 _ 93.7 __79.2 _ 6.7 _ 81.2 hudsonvalley21 __________________13.2 _ 29.3 _ 46.2 __ 42.8 _44.0 _90.0 __ 48.7 _ 8.2 _ 96.3 George001 _______________________12.0 _62.0_105.0__ 65.0 _70.0_140.0__60.0 _ 8.0_ 130.0 DonSutherland1 __________________10.0 _36.0 _ 55.0 __ 45.8 _52.5 _ 95.0 __ 44.0 _ 7.0_ 100.0 RodneyS _________________________ 7.4 _ 33.0 _ 50.0 __ 44.0 _48.0 _ 93.0 __ 46.0 _ 7.0 _ 98.0 actual snowfall to Dec 26, 2022 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 ___4.3 __ 7.5 __100.0 ___16.8 _ 5.8 _ 17.4 (DCA and NYC have both had traces) .

Last call for edits or new posts on the snowfall contest. Table to be prepared Wed 7th, let's say 12z 7th deadline. Scotty Lightning if you look in, clarify BUF (and other forecasts) as the already-fallen amounts are to be counted in the forecasts so you're basically looking at a zero snowfall winter for BUF now to end. I will try a PM but I think last time I wanted to contact you, your box wasn't taking messages. (later edit _ SL confirmed by p.m. that he would accept the adjustments).

Possible analogue would be 1968-69 which turned into a reasonably good winter for snow in parts of the northeast, don't think much happened before late December. It has been extremely cold at my location since that warm spell abruptly ended in late October. I don't think we've had an above normal day since then, and the only precip has been straight snow, no mixed crap like we almost always get around here in Nov-Dec. The end of 1968 into Jan 1969 was equally cold in this region.

Table of forecasts for December 2022 FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 ________ -0.4 __-1.3 __-1.2 __ -2.1 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___+0.3 _+0.5 _-2.2 DonSutherland1 _______ -0.8 __-1.0 __-0.8 __ -4.3 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.8 _-4.2 wxallannj ______________ -0.8 __-1.0 __-1.2 ___-0.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _-1.5 Roger Smith ___________ -0.9 __-0.6 __-0.1 __-3.2 __-0.4 _+1.0 ___-4.5 _-3.3 _-4.8 so_whats_happening __ -1.0 __-1.2 __-1.5 ___-1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ -1.4 _+1.2 __ 0.0 Consensus _____________-1.0 _ -1.2 __ -1.1 ___ -2.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _-2.1 RodneyS _______________ -1.1 __-0.2 __+0.2 __-1.3 __-0.3 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+0.4 _-2.8 RJay ___________________ -1.5 __-1.5 __-1.5 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _-2.0 BKViking _______________-1.6 __-1.5 __-1.3 ___-1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ -0.8 _+1.0 _-0.3 Tom ____ (-1%) _________-1.8 __-1.9 __-1.5 __ -2.1 __ -0.5 _ +0.2 ___ -1.1 _+0.6 _+0.1 wxdude64 _____________-1.9 __-1.6 __-1.1 ___-3.6 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -4.2 George001 ____________-1.9 _ -2.3 __-2.5 __ -3.1 __+0.8 _+1.3 ___ -5.0 _-3.8 _-4.6 __________________________________________ Forecasts are color coded for warmest and coldest. Normal is colder than all forecasters for IAH. Extreme forecasts and best forecasts will be determined and awarded both "all in" and among annual forecasters as is the usual practice late in the year. Welcome to George001, and good luck everybody.

99 inches of snow in my call, 99 inches of snow, if one of those inches happens to fall, there'll be 98 inches of snow for you all ...

All scoring for November and annual contests now updated. Looks like an exciting finish to the contest.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 -3.2 -0.4 +1.0 -4.5 -3.3 -4.8 DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 22.2 44.4 55.5 55.5 66.6 133.0 52.0 15.9 88.8

Well the contest is not quite settled despite the latest provisionals adding a bit to the lead of RodneyS, and it looks like at least a three-person race with perhaps the chase pack with an outside chance, it would take a forecast well separated from those of the leaders to get much of a jump on them. You can easily figure this out, I suppose, but if you go consistently 1 F deg warmer or colder at various stations and you're correct in your trend, you can pick up 180 points in total, so if you were let's say 540 behind you would need to be correct about a 3 F differential (and hope all three leaders had similar forecasts to pass them all). I am a bit more than 900 behind so it doesn't matter what I do this month. I have posted provisional scoring for November and annual contests, and will try to update those to more accurate estimates on the 29th so if you want to know where you stand, have a look on the 30th and see if that changed from the estimates that are posted now. So as always, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations (relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline Thursday Dec 1st, 06z) _ late penalties apply after that. Also we'll see if there's interest in predicting winter snowfall for these nine locations (three replace warm weather locations above) DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 1.1 ___ 2.5 ___ 36.9 ____10.9 __ 0.9 __ 3.0 (amounts so far to Nov 30) ... The above amounts should be included in your forecasts, plus what you foresee after you post to end of the winter snowfall season. I realize BUF has had a lot already but that really doesn't change the challenge of predicting the rest of the winter there. Last time I looked DEN had seen about 10 inches in November and the other locations are either at smaller amounts or yet to start their seasons. There won't be much of a deadline on this snowfall contest but try to get your entry in by 5th of December at latest so I can make up the table. Also a belated happy Thanksgiving. We do that in early October up here so it's just Black Friday for us (and that's new around here too). And Advent. Happy holidays in general. (Note, anyone is welcome to enter either of these, and you don't have to submit a temperature forecast entry to enter the snowfall contest) (I will be asking you who are regular participants how you feel about continuing on with the contest in 2023 -- I am willing to keep doing what I do now for at least one more year, eventually I will age out of this weather forum entirely though, if the powers that be tolerate my presence that much longer)

Thanks, these of course will be updated at end of month and I am posting the final month of the contest now. Will offer a snowfall contest again.

In theory, this approach is not the only possible answer, although it is of course one possible answer (to the question, how could we improve long-range forecasting towards being an exact science? and if so, over what time scale?) Another possible route is to develop theory that actually works (always what scientists are actually doing, your suggestion is more of an engineering/technological solution). If we don't have such a theory today, we could have one in the future. Why do people believe in the theory of gravitation? Because it works. With the refinements made in special relativity (applying to situations with higher velocities) the theory has been shown to give accurate results. Why does it work? Nobody really knows that, it is based on an equation which described a theory, and that equation gave accurate results. There could be such equations hidden away out of our current sight or knowledge, that would help us to make better long-range forecasts. Even so, those equations might not maintain enough accuracy to keep generating good solutions very long intervals into the future. This is, of course, more or less what you're talking about too, except that the equations would be based on an assumption which is not necessarily needed in theoretical physics, that the energy for weather events of the future is already in the atmospheric system. If the energy is not already in the system, then it has to come from some other place, in theory, those places could be the oceans, the earth's crust or core, the solar system magnetic field that surrounds the atmosphere, the Sun, or deep space. But if the super-computers you describe are only tasked with finding energy in more and more detail in the current atmosphere, then no matter how good they are, they won't give the results sought, because the energy just isn't there now, so how could they possibly predict what might happen once the energy already present has fully dissipated? (something that might take ten days, a month, some part of a year, depends on what kind of energy, but very little of it could survive much beyond a month). My theory and therefore my research approach is to assume that the energy comes from beyond the atmosphere. That might make it subject to theoretical prediction, although at the same time that could just be another unpredictable random process we cannot model or predict. If we had good theory now, we could make accurate long-range forecasts for quite some time, perhaps not like a century or a thousand years, but certainly months or even years. It would be a quasi-permanent theoretical solution that might require continuous refinement to ensure it was not off track. It would be like a gravitational equation that depended on periodic measurements of the value of G (in physics, that is assumed to be a constant over long intervals). Either way, I think you're correct to assume it will take a lot of computing power and it will come decades in the future, unless I get my act together.