Roger Smith

Some mildly encouraging signs from radar and various obs upstream, somebody on LI has 4" down. ACY looks semi-blizzed and heavy snow reported near Asbury Park. I'm just riding this out with limited confidence in models at this point, it has the look of a big storm on radar and satellite and there's a fairly impressive low in the Atlantic. Maybe it will just do what some earlier model run said it might do and ignore all the very latest updates. As for BOS 40" that seems like a stretch but 25-30 is probably within the bounds, at least 23 with nearby weather weenies swearing it should be 26.

Sooner or later one of these vort maxes will take the right road, and do the right thing. It has happened before and can happen again. I guess.

I see a large crab attacking a giant lobster, and a few other good things. (this may update hour by hour so later readers may not see that at all) ... http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg

Did that poster asking about wind speeds in BOS and cape get an answer? My guess is, peak gusts of 65 mph at BOS, 80-100 mph gusts possible across the Cape, from NE backing to NNW as the storm passes. Peak winds will be around 9 pm to 3 am overnight (Sat-Sun night).

In the 1888 blizzard, people got a daily weather forecast from their newspaper. It might come out around 3-4 p.m. with a forecast sent to NYC from DC by telegraph. So I looked into the situation. On Saturday March 10 the forecast for Sunday (NYC) said something like rain turning to snow, colder. On Sunday March 11th the paper had no forecast. The news reports said something about telegraph lines down between DC and New York due to a storm (DC had 10-12 inches from the blizzard). The storm hit in full force on the night of 11th-12th and raged away all day Monday 12th and into part of Tuesday 13th, 17 inches fell in the city and as you know 30-50 inches over large parts of the Hudson valley and western New England. So in that case, people had some idea that snow was coming and beyond that, no information, complicated by the rare non-appearance of their forecast from the head office. This led to the situation of regional offices in places like New York and Boston. When it comes to times before the telegraph and the infant version of the NWS (the weather bureau), I guess people went with natural signs like a halo around the moon presaging a storm. But from what I've read about the famous "Washington-Jefferson" 30 inch snowfall in Virginia in Jan 1772, even such intelligent people as two of the first presidents had no idea it was coming, both were forced to make alternate plans on routine business journeys and could not reach their homes as planned for days, or without considerable difficulty. Accounts of the big hurricane force windstorm in Ireland in 1839 make it fairly clear that nobody was remotely prepared for such an event there. And the journal of Alexis Caldwell at Providence RI seldom gives any clue as to his state of preparedness for the coming day's weather (his journal runs from 1831 to 1860) although having read much of it I never encountered any expressions of surprise except perhaps for the night that his 7 inch rain gauge overflowed.

I know. But I will edit this to 21.5 as soon as he posts that report. By the way, I have entered your location (etc etc) and it's 17.8 inches.

I have put your location in my supercomputer and your guaranteed snowfall amount is (whirr, click, sound of exploding vacuum tubes) 21.4 inches Your snow will terminate at 0739 a.m. EST Sunday. You will measure in absolute disbelief at the accuracy of this prediction. Or not.

Feel free to give your o/u relative to these fx: ACY 14.5 EWR 8.2 NYC 10.7 JFK 12.5 LGA 14.4 ISP 21.3 (local e LI 25-30) BDR 18.8 BDL 14.5 PVD 26.5 BOS 30.2 PWM 27.5 CON 25.5 ORH 34.5 HYA 22.5 ALB 3.5 POU 7.0

It just feels like the mother of all NAM final reversals lies just over the event horizon.

Just saw the thread, can't realistically take the prize anyway (distance) so 18 min late entry but 38.5" at Marlborough, MA.

You can just sense that the NAM is about to go back into bomb mode for its 00z last chance forecast. If the Euro found that much to improve, the NAM can probably find a 950 mb low stalled for five days off Montauk.

30-40 was in the casket, the minister was saying what a great fellow he had been, and how we would all miss him, and a voice came from within the casket ...

It took a brave soul to write that outlook, even as harsh a snow-fanatic as myself would likely have gone with a more subdued tone after seeing all this meh guidance. Still, it could be like the 1970s and the outcome is nothing like the guidance at all. Sometimes the crudeness of the early generation models is overstated, they weren't that bad, but I do remember one or two cases where reality was quite a surprise compared to any 12-24 hour model output, for example, Jan 26 1978. If that happens here, basically 30-40 years of technological development will mean butkus. My toned down prediction would be 12-24 inches east of a CON-ORH-PVD-ACK 12" contour, max near Taunton MA. Maybe 15" in parts of se CT and LI here and there. Probably about 7" on average in w CT to central MA. Hoping reality gives me a kick in the butkus.

In the Navy there's a blizzard for you all, in the navy there's snow back to Montreal, in the navy, it's like 1982 in the navy, everyone is wearing blue.

BINGO !!! It was kicker near MKE that finished it for me.

Sure, in PEI snow fans are delirious.

What happened to the NAM I married? That NAM was a good provider and always looked sharp. But you, and your whole 12z family, I just can't see a future for us.

Also they have to show the output to the Queen so that takes time, she's fussy about isobars and such.

That wasn't the NAM I married. Now the 06z NAM, wherever that alternate universe is located, they are in for it.

Well either NAM off its meds, or GFS unable to cope with bipolar disorder? That would not be all that big a deal for many places apart from se MA. I don't pretend to know which of these is closer to reality, RGEM suggests GFS is but maybe Euro will have other ideas. Hope they reach a consensus before the storm actually begins.

I keep having to remind myself that we don't know which model (as of its last attempt or any earlier one) is going to prove most accurate, as there is almost no development yet 24-30 hours before a major storm is supposed to be raging and developing somewhere east of the Mid-Atlantic. If this NAM run proves to be the best solution up to let's say the 12z model suite, then nobody must ever speak an ill word of the NAM ever again. until you know, the inevitable happens ...

That was one for sure in 1978, the Great Lakes windstorm of Nov 9 1913 probably another. I don't know if this qualifies technically or not, will look into it. It is not a whole lot different from the Blizzard of 1888 in terms of track and intensity. I think that one got blocked more when it reached the Cape though. This also reminds me of "White Juan" which hit eastern Canada after the summer when Juan hit NS, which I think was 2002 so that would be around Jan 2003. I think that storm missed most of NE and came in from the s.s.w. crossing NS and PEI, 30-40 inch snowfalls and extreme drifting resulted.

That is a superstorm whether it happens or not, it's certainly the way things have been trending all day and night, but confidence in it remains sketchy until at least one of the other models duplicates it. Much further west at initiation, and deepens continuously from east of Hatteras to near Nantucket where it reaches 957 mb with a very tight circulation. Verbatim would probably give much of the Delmarva 15-25 inches, most of NJ 20-30 inches, NYC 18-24, LI 20-30 with monster drifts, CT 20-35 and parts of MA 30-40. Puts BAL in the maybe zone for marginal blizzard and 5-8 inches, DC maybe 2-4? But it's all speculation until we see the goods.

Over your house in more ways than one, right?

That is a superstorm and would have extreme impacts. I guess verbatim it would be 70-90 mph northerly winds across Long Island Sound across Long Island and snowfall amounts might not really matter that much as 15" or 30" would drift like crazy. NYC likely to verify the earlier 18-24" idea with some parts of the metro exposed to stronger outflow winds, otherwise at least 50-60 mph. Most of CT would likely see 30" of snow from this sort of track. I think it actually stays a bit east of RI and crosses the cape, but anyway, it means nothing until either the rest of models follow suit or it happens anyway. Don't forget it is not a guarantee just a strong suggestion. I was always expecting this sort of end game though.