Roger Smith

As noted in the table of entries, two locations (IAD, RIC) tied their existing seasonal max on Sunday 24th (from early climate reports, will check again later).

Today BWI has moved up to 98F (early climate report, will check again later). The other three locations did not advance today.

Final scoring for July 2022 SEA reported anomaly of +1.9 has to be checked later as two days missing data could alter the value in a later posting of the CF6. Most scores would change by the same amount also, high score(s) for SEA could be reduced slightly depending on what happens. My estimate is that the missing data will, if inserted into the table, change the anomaly to +1.6. FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL so_whats_happening ___ 64 _ 96 _ 74 __ 234 __ 68 _ 86 _ 78 __232 __466 __ 90 _ 92 _ 80 __ 262 ___ 728 RodneyS _______________ 92 _ 76 _ 38 __ 206 __ 88 _ 98 _ 70 __ 256 __462 __ 78 _ 88 _ 84 __ 250 ___ 712 Tom _____________________66 _ 98 _ 68 __ 232 __ 56 _ 74 _ 86 __ 216 __448 __ 86 _ 82 _ 90 __ 258 ___ 706 wxallannj ________________72 _ 88 _ 56 __ 216 __ 68 _ 86 _ 92 __ 246 __462 __ 88 _ 98 _ 54 __ 240 ___ 702 ___ Consensus __________72 _ 84 _ 52 __ 208 __ 72 _ 84 _ 78 __ 234 __442 __ 86 _ 96 _ 72 __ 254 ___ 696 wxdude64 ______________74 _ 78 _ 46 __ 198 __ 90 _ 82 _ 78 __ 250 __448 __ 84 _ 94 _ 54 __ 232 ___ 680 RJay ____________________52 _ 90 _ 82 __ 224 __ 38 _ 64 _ 82 __ 184 __408 __ 98 _ 64 _ 98 __ 260 ___ 668 hudsonvalley21 _________80 _ 86 _ 50 __ 216 __ 90 _ 84 _ 58 __ 232 __448 __ 68 _ 90 _ 58 __ 216 ___ 664 Scotty Lightning ________72 _ 80 _ 52 __ 204 __ 78 _ 84 _ 82 __ 244 __448 __ 52 _ 96 _ 62 __ 210 ___ 658 BKViking________________76 _ 80 _ 50 __ 206 __ 46 _ 62 _ 90 __ 198 __404 __ 92 _ 84 _ 78 __ 254 ___ 658 StormchaserChuck! ____ 48 _ 84 _ 82 __ 214 __ 38 _ 78 _ 58 __ 174 __388 __ 92 _ 84 _ 92 __ 268 ___ 656 DonSutherland1 ________ 92 _ 68 _ 42 __ 202 __ 82 _ 94 _ 62 __ 238 __440 __ 58 _ 96 _ 62 __216 ___ 656 Roger Smith ____________88 _ 52 _ 28 __ 168 __ 88 _ 76 _ 62 __ 226 __394 __ 62 _ 86 _ 66 __ 214 ___608 ___ Normal ______________98 _ 60 _ 32 __ 190 __ 98 _ 86 _ 42 __ 226 __416 __ 42 _ 76 _ 62 __180 ___ 596 ====================================== EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (+0.1) _ Win for DonS and RodneyS (both +0.5) and Normal, loss for Roger Smith (-0.5) NYC (+2.0) _ did not qualify (third warmest forecast high score) BOS (+3.4) _ Win for RJay and StormchaserChuck (+2.5). ORD (-0.1) _ Win for wxdude64 and hudsonvalley21 (both +0.4) and Normal, loss for Roger Smith (-0.7) ATL (+0.7) _ Win for RodneyS (+0.8), loss for Roger Smith (-0.5) and Normal (0.0) IAH (+2.9) _ Win for wxallannj (+2.5) DEN (+2.9) _ Win for RJay (+3.0) PHX (+1.2) _ did not qualify, outcome close to consensus forecasts. SEA (+1.9) _ Win for RJay (+2.0)* _______ *Data incomplete, result may change if SEA finishes below +1.7.

RIC moved up one degree on July 21st to 98 F (table edited). No changes yet to the other three locations. BWI tied their established seasonal max of 96F from May 31st on July 22nd for the second time (also June 17th).

Monday's maximum temperatures in France are running close to GFS forecast projections so this tends to indicate that 40-41 will likely happen in parts of England on Tuesday. The highest value I saw in England on Monday was 38 C at Cambridge, with 37 at a number of locations including around greater London. Ireland also came very close to breaking their all-time record on Monday, which is a mere 33.3 C from June, 1887. An amateur station in Dublin equalled that value but I think the official stations will top out a little lower. There has always been some doubt expressed about the situation of the thermometer (in Kilkenny) for the 1887 record, in 2006 it was 32.8 C for a more reliable record. Here's a link to the maximum temperatures for France from meteociel. You can zoom in on regions using the menu available at the link. These are preliminary values just in since the period for them is 06z to 18z. Note several locations between 42 and 43 C or around 108-109 F. https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php?region=

Active shortwave moving inland tonight along the US-Canada border will run into that extreme humidity, some heavy rainfalls likely by Tuesday in that region. It has been quite dry here for the past few weeks, looking forward to some late night thunderstorm activity here, clearing out Monday afternoon. Speaking of the high dew points, I seem to recall some very high dews in July 1995 around Iowa and Illinois. Corn sweat, I believe it is called.

Table of forecasts for Summer Max 2022 (updates now appearing here) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ______________ 104 __ 103 __ 101 ___ 98 __ 102 _ 108 __ 105 _ 119 __ 95 Scotty Lightning __________104 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 105 _ 110 ____ 97 _ 121 __ 90 DonSutherland1 __________ 104 __ 100 __ 101 ___100 ___ 99 _ 105 __ 100 _ 118 __ 92 so_whats_happening _____ 102 __ 101 ___ 99 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 103 _ 121 __ 93 RJay ______________________ 102 ___99 ___ 99 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 105 __ 101 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ________________ 102 ___99 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 __ 100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 106 ___ 99 _ 119 __ 93 BKViking __________________ 100 ___99 ___ 97 ___ 99 __ 100 _ 101 __ 100 _ 119 __ 94 Tom ________________________ 99 ___99 ___ 97 ___102 __ 102 _ 107 ___ 97 _ 121 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________ 98 ___98 ___ 97 ___ 97 __ 100 _ 102 __ 102 _ 119 __ 93 wxallannj ___________________98 ___97 ___ 96 ___ 97 ___ 98 _ 100 ___ 96 _ 118 __ 92 Consensus (means) ________101 __100 ___ 98 ___ 99 __ 101 _ 105 __ 100 _ 119 __ 93 ___ to Aug 9 _______________ 99 __ 97 __100 _____ 99 __ 99 __105 _____101 _ 115 _ 95 ============================== Anomalies to 12th _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___________________________-1.4 __+0.8 __+1.2 __ +0.3 __+1.1 __+3.9 __ +2.7 __+2.8 __+0.2* ___ (to 22nd) _____________-0.1 __+1.7 __ +2.5 ___ 0.0 __+0.5__+3.8 __ +4.2 __+3.6 __-0.4* __ (p29th from GFS) ______ 0.0 __+1.5 __+2.0 __ +1.5 __+1.5__+4.0 __ +3.0 __+3.0 __+1.0 __ (p31st from GFS) ______+0.5 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ 0.0 _ +0.5 __ +3.0 __ +3.0 __+1.5 __ +2.0 __ final anomalies ________ +0.1 _ +2.0 _ +3.4 __-0.1 _ +0.7 __ +2.9 __ +2.9 __ +1.2 __ +1.9 ___________ * SEA has missing data on 4th-5th, actual anomaly may be closer to 0.0 * SEA still has the missing data, -0.4 may be -0.5 after this is sorted out ================================== 13th _ Projections are based on subdued but above normal warmth in east and continued heat in west. At the moment these projections would score 738 out of 900 for consensus. 23rd _ New projections blend expected eastern heat with later near average, and sustained western warmth, the current provisionals would score 656 out of 900 for consensus. 28th _ Adjusted PHX end of month estimate to +2.0 due to some rather cool days there this past week, monsoon thunderstorms in the vicinity and lots of cloud. Hotter here at the US-Canada border than in most of the desert southwest. 30th _ Adjusted DEN and IAH down slightly to +3.0 each ... will be adjusting and finalizing all anomalies over the next 2-3 days. 31st _ 1st ... Final anomalies are now confirmed, SEA has posted a final anomaly of +1.9 but the CF6 has two missing days that I suspect may appear within a day or two and drop the average closer to +1.6 or so. Will score from +1.9 for now but may change that later. (NYC 79.5 4.55" for tables) 1.85" 18th

Something comparable might be the extreme cold of winter 1917-18 to the record heat of August 1918. Although that was less sustained than the warmth of Dec 2015. NYC had the example also of the heavy snowfall in late Dec 1947 to the record heat in late August of 1948. Both 1944 and 1948 provide examples of summers when not much significant heat occur before late July and then a lot of heat comes in August. An even faster reversal of large magnitude was 1976-77 when a cold regime that persisted from October 1976 to January 1977 flipped during February to a very warm spring in 1977 (albeit with one brief reversal to anomalous late cold around May 8-9).

No late forecasts, yay! (I hate those late penalties) ... Table of forecasts for July 2022 FORECASTER __________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA StormchaserChuck! ____ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.5 ___+3.0 _+1.8 _ +0.8 ___ +2.5 _+2.0 _ +1.5 RJay ____________________ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +2.5 ___+3.0 _+2.5 _ +2.0 ___+3.0 _+3.0 _ +2.0 so_whats_happening ___ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +2.1 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.4 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 Tom _____________________+1.8 _ +1.9 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 ___ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.4 wxallannj ________________+1.5 _ +1.4 _ +1.2 ___ +1.5 _ +1.4 _ +2.5 ___ +2.3 _ +1.3 _ -0.4 Scotty Lightning ________+1.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ Consensus __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 ___ +2.2 _ +1.4 _ +0.5 wxdude64 ______________+1.4 _ +0.9 _ +0.7 ___ +0.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +0.9 _ -0.4 BKViking ________________ +1.3 _ +1.0 _ +0.9 ___+2.6 _ +2.6 _ +2.4 ___+2.5 _ +2.0 _+0.8 hudsonvalley21 __________+1.1 _ +1.3 _ +0.9 ___ +0.4 _ +1.5 _ +0.8 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ -0.2 RodneyS ________________ +0.5 _ +0.8 _ +0.3 ___+0.5 _+0.8 _ +1.4 ___ +1.8 _ +0.6 _ +1.1 DonSutherland1 _________ +0.5 _ +0.4 _ +0.5 ___+0.8 _+1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +0.8 _ +1.4 __ 0.0 ___ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Roger Smith ____________ -0.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.2 ___ -0.7 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 =========================================== Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded. Normal is coldest for IAH, DEN and PHX.

===<<< ____________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-June 2022) _______________>>>=== Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. With most scores similar in June, there was only one set of changes in ranks; hudsonvalley21 (now 6th) and wxallannj (7th) moved ahead of BKViking (now 8th, although only two points behind 7th place). Consensus moved up closer to second place but did not change its rank, also Normal remained between 10th and 11th, and also there is a prorated score for Stormchaser Chuck (3467), based on 3/2 times actual score, and with that he would be around the same total as our 8th ranked total. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________393 _431 _481 __1305 __385 _449_ 318__1152 _2457 __402 _484 _385 __1271 ____3728 DonSutherland1 ________ 452 _444 _470__1366__422 _384 _226__1032 _2398 __382 _484 _428__1294____3692 ___ Consensus ___________416 _428 _436 __1280__370 _428 _278__1076 _2356__428 _486 _397 __1311 ____3667 Tom _____________________ 419 _421 _403 __1243__384 _413 _375__1172 _2415 __449 _425 _312 __1186 ____3601 so_whats_happening ____368 _398 _462 __1228__381 _420_ 278__1079 _2307 __378 _488 _416 __1282____3589 RodneyS ________________ 392 _382 _412 __1186 __278 _430 _324__1032 _2218 __468 _476 _400__1344____3562 hudsonvalley21 __________382 _412 _454 __1248__346 _392 _294__1032 _2280__384 _470 _380 __1234____3514 wxallannj ________________358 _360 _392 __1110 __350 _386 _288__1024 _2134 __462 _478 _416 __1356____3490 BKViking ________________ 414 _418 _410 __1242__352 _400 _244 __996 _2238 __428 _460 _362 __1250____3488 RJay _____________________414 _430 _416___1260__387 _406 _276__1069 _ 2329 __382 _410 _309 __1101 ____3430 Scotty Lightning _________374 _398 _418 __1190 __300 _392 _300__ 992 _ 2182 __404 _450 _300__1154____ 3336 _____ Normal _____________390 _406 _388 __1184 __298 _362 _280 __940 _ 2124 __408 _394 _346__1148____3272 Roger Smith _____________ 300 _308 _238 __ 846 __224 _ 298 _266 __788 _1634 __424 _456 _409__1289____2923 Stormchaser Chuck (4/6)_286 _290 _285 __861 __260 _ 336 _190 __ 786 __1647 __212 _289 _163 __ 664____2311 __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 3467 total points. =========================================== Best Forecasts _ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan DonSutherland1 __________3^___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____3 ____ 1 ____ 2 __ Feb,May ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ______________________ 1^___ 1 ___ 1 ____2 ____0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Mar so_whats_happening _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0 RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1*____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 0 BKViking _________________ 2^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 1^___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Apr Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith _______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1*____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 2 ____ 1 __ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred five times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May, once for BOS in June and once for SEA in June.) (in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total). (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN) So far, 39 of 54 forecasts qualify, 16 warmest and 23 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4. FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun __TOTAL (adj for ties) Roger Smith _____________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**-0___ 12-2 (11-2) DonSutherland1 _________ --- _ 4-0*_ 1-0^_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _____ 8-0 (6.75 - 0) Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 ____ 7-1 Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2-0^_1-0_ 1-0*_ ---- ___ 6-0 (4.75 - 0) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 4-0 (3.5 - 0) RodneyS _________________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0*_ 1*-0 __ 4-0 (3.0 -1) ____ Normal ______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 ___ 4-0 RJay _____________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ 1-0*_--- _ ---- ___ 2-0 (0.75 - 0) so_whats_happening ____ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ___________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1-1* _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-1 (0.5 - 1) wxallannj _________________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ --- _ --- _ 1*-0 ___ 1-1 (0.5 -1) BKViking _________________ --- _ --- _ 1-0^_ --- _ --- _ ---- ___ 1-0 (0.25 - 0) Scotty Lightning _________ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- ___ 0-0 ===============================

-0.5 _ -0.4 _ -0.2 ___ -0.7 _ -0.5 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 (tried to message Scotty L, his in-box must be full, did send a reminder to wxdude64, hope it all works out _ otherwise, thanks for your entries)

Just a heads up for NYC crew who enter the temperature forecast contest, the long weekend approaching will pose a challenge for getting in before the deadline, so post your forecast before you start to enjoy the three or four day weekend.

Final Scoring for June 2022 FORECASTER __________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west__TOTALS Roger Smith ____________ 80 _ 80 _100__260 __ 62 _ 64 _ 82 __ 208__ 468 _ 70 _88 _ 92 __ 250 ___ 718 wxallannj ________________70 _ 60 _ 66 __ 196 __ 78 _ 60 _ 62 __ 200__ 396 _100_ 84 _ 92 __276 ___ 672 hudsonvalley21 _________ 82 _ 76 _ 94 __ 252 __ 70 _ 44 _ 40 __ 154 __ 406 _ 86 _ 92 _ 82 __ 260 ___ 666 ___ Consensus __________ 72 _ 66 _ 78 __ 216 __ 76 _ 60 _ 50 __ 186__ 402 _ 86 _ 88 _ 78 __ 252 ___ 654 Scotty Lightning ________ 74 _ 68 _ 78 __ 220 __ 88 _ 66 _ 66 __ 220__ 440 _ 80 _ 64 _ 62 __ 206 ___ 646 BKViking ________________ 70 _ 68 _ 76 __ 214 __ 82 _ 56 _ 46 __ 184__ 398 _ 96 _ 80 _ 58 __ 234 ___ 632 RJay _______ (-1%) ______ 73*_ 67*_ 77*__ 217 __ 48 _ 55*_65*__ 168__ 385 _ 89*_ 93*_61*__ 243 ___ 628 RodneyS ________________ 72 _ 66 _100__ 238 __ 30 _ 64 _ 54 __ 148__ 386 _ 72 _ 72 _ 82 __ 226 ___ 612 wxdude64 ______________ 50 _ 42 _ 62 __ 154 __ 86 _ 66 _ 56 __ 208 __ 362 _ 92 _ 96 _ 58 __ 246 ___ 608 DonSutherland1 _________88 _ 74 _ 82 __ 244 __ 52 _ 38 _ 34 __ 124__ 368 _ 64 _ 84 _ 88 __ 236 ___ 606 so_whats_happening ____52 _ 50 _ 66 __ 168 __ 80 _ 58 _ 42 __ 180__ 348 _ 86 _ 92 _ 74 __ 252 ___ 600 ___ Normal ______________ 94 _ 88 _ 98 _ 280 __ 68 _ 36 _ 26 __ 130 __ 410 _ 60 _ 44 _ 82 __ 186 ___ 596 Tom _____________________ 72 _ 64 _ 80 __ 216 __ 72 _ 54 _ 36 __ 162__ 378 _ 70 _ 58 _ 86 __ 214 ___ 592 Stormchaser Chuck! ____ 30 _ 24 _ 50 __ 104 __ 98 _ 76 _ 36 __ 210__ 314 _ 74 _ 92 _ 40 __ 206 ___ 520 ____________________________________________ Extreme forecasts DCA (-0.3) is a win for coldest forecast (Don S) at +0.3 and also for Normal. NYC and BOS are wins for coldest forecasts, Roger Smith for both (+0.4, -0.1) and tied with RodneyS (-0.1) for BOS, (and Normal for NYC). ORD (+1.6) and ATL (+3.2) are wins for hottest forecasts (StormchaserChuck +1.5, +2.0), and IAH (+3.7) also (Roger Smith +2.8) DEN (+2.0) cooled off near the end and fell out of the extreme forecast category with the highest score going to third highest forecast. PHX (+2.8) also slipped below the necessary outcome for an extreme forecast and high score also went to the third highest forecast. SEA (-0.9) is a shared win for wxallannj and Roger Smith with coldest forecasts (-0.5). ========================================

Predict the temperature anomalies relative to 1991-2020 averages for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Will be sending out reminders as I see the timing of the July 4th weekend is posing a danger of very late entries that I don't want to have to penalize. Reminders on the 29th so if you want to save me some effort, enter by 28th you can always edit your entry on the 30th. I don't actually take down the forecasts until the 1st. And happy fourth of July.

Year overall has some similarity to 1918, cold January, rather mild February, mild March, warm spells in April-May, June up and down ... so the rest of the way it was transitional to hot in Juily, very hot in August (especially first half), much more variable in September, and relatively warm rest of the year, with a generally mild winter 1918-19. See any parallels, Chuck? or anyone? (it was near a solar peak although not a really strong one, don't know how it stacked up for SOI).

Yes, for NYC, September had the hottest day in 1953 (2nd 102F), 1881 (7th 101F), 1929 (3rd, 99F), 1983 (11th, 99F), 1931 (11th, 99F, tied with 7th Aug), 1895 (23rd 97F), 2015 (8th 97F), 1921 (3rd 96F), 1932 (2nd 96F), 1914 (22nd 95F, tied with 27th May), 1915 (9th, 94F), 1897 (10th 93F tied with 6th July), 1970 (22nd 94F), 2014 (2nd 92F), also 1927 (15th 92F tied with four other days all in July, and it was also 90F on Oct 2nd 1927), and 1884 (91F 8th and 9th tied with 21st June and 20th Aug). So that was 16 of 153 years so far with at least a tie of the summer maximum in September. I listed them in order of their temperatures. The latest date was the 23rd in 1895, that year had a four-day heat wave May 31 to June 3 with 96F highs. This year NYC hit 93F on May 31, the second hottest reading since that record value from 1895 was tied in 1939. It was 94F in 1987 and that year's eventual maximum was 97F from the previous day (May 30th).

Since the subject came up, in terms of all-time records valid now for NYC 1869-2022, the shortest turnaround times between primary records (high max, low min) appear to be these: 3 days _ 80F Oct 20 1969 to 32F Oct 23 1969 (and 31F 24th) _ 5" snow in Toronto on Oct 22nd during that transition. 3 days _ 25F Apr 9 1977 to 90F Apr 12 1977 ... a similar event took place the previous year, but 25F on Apr 12 was not a record low, while 91F on Apr 17th was broken in 2002, 96F and 92F the next two days remain records. 4 days _ 96F June 23-24 1888 (both records) to 54F, 52F June 28, 29 (both record lows) 4 days _ 89F May 13 1956 (and high min 69F) to 39F May 17 1956 __ double transition in 1890 __ (see 1967 below, similar sequence a bit later in March-April) 5, 9 days _ 67 F Feb 27 1890 to 7F Mar 7 1890 (nine days) then back to 71F in five days Mar 12 1890 5 days _ 76F Mar 23 1923 to 13F Mar 28 (and 10F Mar 29) 1923 (also record lows 31st, Apr 1st) 5 days _ 39F Oct 7 1954 to 86F Oct 12 (also record high minima Oct 1-3 for a four-day initial downward plunge before the five day rise) ... this all followed by Hurricane Hazel Oct 15 1954. 6 days _ 27F Nov 6 1879 to 76F Nov 12 1879 (at the time three consecutive record lows all still valid, followed in six days by four record highs, the last three have all since been broken) 6 days _ 96F May 27 1880 (third consecutive daily high) to 48F June 2 1880 6 days _ 99F June 25 1943 to 52F July 1 1943. ___ This had been a four day transition from 98F on 27th which lost its record standing in 1966 (101F). 7 days _ 88F Sep 28 1881 to 35F Oct 5 (87F Oct 1 had been a record at the time, broken in 1927 88F, so this had also been a four day transition -- Oct 1 1881 still holds the high minimum record of 72F ... there was another record low of 36F on Oct 6 then a temporary record high on Oct 8th (80F) which lasted until 1916 (84F)). 7 days _ 95F Sep 22 1914 to 42F Sep 29 1914. Another record high 83F Oct 11th later broken by 1949 (85F). 7 days _ 101F July 18 1953 to 57F July 25 1953. (July 17th 100F also a record high) 8 days _ 91F Oct 10 1939 to 35F Oct 18 1939 8 days _ 51F June 13 1953 to 97F June 21 1953. (June 20 also 97, not a record though) 10 days _ 41F May 25 1925 to 99F June 4, 1925 (94F June 3 was one short of 1895 record) 10 days _ 98F Aug 10 1949 to 55F Aug 20 1949 _ 11th was 99F but that was not a record (102F in 1944). -------------- There are also some short transitions that involve secondary records (involving high min or low max sometimes with primary records, sometimes with each other). The shortest interval applies to Mar 8 to 10 1987 which went from record high max (76F 8th) to record low max (28F 10th). Another rapid change in three days, was from low max 62F June 22, 1952 to high max 99F June 25. The sequence there was 64, 62, 64, 85, 99, 100. Mar 3 2009 had a low max of 26F and Mar 7 had a high min of 51F. The min (12F) to max (70F) differential was impressive but neither were date records. May 12, 1881 (93F) still a valid high max was followed by two record low maxima within five days (52F 17th, 53F 18th). A similar occurrence happened in the autumn of that year, as noted in the first listing of records since it qualified there also. In July 2013, record high minima of 81F, 83F July 18-19 were followed by a record low max of 68F on July 25th. More recently, record low maxima of 51F on May 29-30 2021 were quickly followed by a high minimum of 76F on June 7 (June 6 also 76F but not a record). This was very similar to 1945 when a long string of record low max and min ending June 5th was followed by a record high minimum of 76F on the 15th and maxima of 92 to 93 each day 14th to 18th. A low max of 61F on June 7th 1891 was followed by two record highs (still valid) of 96F, 97F on 15th and 16th. A faster transition from max of 56F on June 6, 1894 to temporary record 90F on the 11th looks less impressive now that the eventual high maximum was 95F in 1973. Two readings of 99F (June 30, July 1, 1964), only the first a record, were followed within eight days by a record low maximum of 63F on July 9th. No record cold was involved but there were fast transitions from very cold to very warm weather in Feb 1930, and from very warm to cold in Feb 1946, both cases had record highs but not record lows. In Feb 1930, Feb 16-17 was quite cold (20F, 7F and 26F, 7F) then by Feb 19th it was 57F, and 20th 69F (still a record), followed by more record warmth including 75F on Feb 25th. In 1946, on the other hand, it went from a record high of 63F on Feb 14th to a reading of 14F around midnight 15th-16th then back up to 55F by the 17th. That was all followed by quite a warm March so the warm signal won out there. The temperature drop on Nov 12-13 1911 is remembered as being one of the largest, taking a plunge from a high of 69F to a low of 26F, the highs were 69, 33. Only the cold value is a low maximum record though. A record high of 67F on Dec 14, 1881 was followed within two days by a high of only 29F and low of 18F (not records but quite a drop). One of the fastest warmups came in late December 1875. Lows of 2F and 1F on 19th and 20th, neither quite records within the "starter era" with -1 and -3 in 1884 on those dates, were followed by record highs of 59F on 22nd (later broken) and 64F on 23rd (also later broken). It then stayed very mild through January 1876 after what had been persistent record cold in late November and parts of December 1875. Similar flips occurred from Sept 1947 and 1963 (cold) to Oct 1947 and 1963 (very warm) but differences between records are more widely separated than we are tracking in this post (both Octobers were quite warm by the 10th but set most of their records later, both Septembers had several record lows near the end and 1947 also set a record low on October 1st). Another month to month transition worth noting without any adjacent records would be Jan-Feb 1984 (cold to very mild, then back to cold in March). The somewhat slower transition from record warmth in March-early April 1945 to variable then very cold at end of May into early June was also a full tour of the anomaly spectrum. A near record high of 98F on Aug 2, 1975 and 96F on Aug 3rd and a record high minimum of 78F on the third were quickly followed by a record low max of 64F on Aug 7th (lowest minimum with that only 60F). Aug 10, 1979 (95F) while not that close to a record the warmest day of that year was followed within two days by a very cool day (64F, 57F). Earlier in the record, Aug 7 1931 (99F, not a record) was followed on the 11th by a record low max of 68F. There may have been other short transitions that involved valid records at the time but not valid now. A record high of 98F on July 8, 1890 (surpassed in 1993) was followed within two days by a record low of 55F (max 70F not a record after 1917) on July 10, 1890. June 29-30 1919 had record lows of 52F and 53F (still valid), July 3rd (97F, not a record in 1919) July 4th (99F a record to 1949) and July 5th (98F a record to 1999) made for a very fast transition. Oct 12 1886 (78F) was a record at the time broken in 1928, and 33F on 17th five days later still is a record. 76F on Oct 11th 1887 was also a temporary record and was followed in just two days by the still-valid but tied record low max of 49F. Also similar, 70F on Nov 4, 1903 later beaten out as a record was followed within three days by the still valid low maximum 41F (7th). In the eventually record cold November of 1880, a record high of 68F on 11th since broken, was followed by record cold as soon as the 19th (record low max 31F) and it stayed record cold for most of the following week. In 1951, record mild weather Dec 8-9 (the surviving records are high minima) was followed by near-record cold within ten days (64F 7th and 8th, 8F and 9F 17th, 18th). July 16 1926 has the record low of 56F, July 21 1926 held the record high (100F) until beaten in 1930 (102F). In 1930 the record low was 57F on July 15th but the 1930 high of 102F is no longer a record either (1977 104F). Another fast transition in the summer of 1930 was from record 96F on Aug 5th to record low 55F on Aug 13th, but the record high was later broken by 1944 (101F). Mar 11, 1967 had a (then) record high of 72F followed by a record low min of 8F on the 19th (a record low max of 20F on the 18th also), and it was back up to a record high of 81F on April 2nd. Another example is from a low max record still valid 41F Apr 15, 1885 to a high of 81F on Apr 22, a record broken in 1962 (which itself almost duplicated the change with a high of only 45F on the 15th). A shorter transition followed with a record of 89F on Apr 28, 1962 (since broken) followed by the date low max of 45F on May 2nd. (four days) By May 19, 1962 the monthly maximum of 99F was recorded, following another low max on May 8th of 49F. June 20 1893 (95F) has been overtaken by 98F in 1923, but at the time went from record high to low max and min (63F, 56F, June 26) in six days with another record low 54F on the 28th. May 2-3 1913 had record highs of 89F later beaten in recent years, and a still valid record low of 36F on May 11th. May 5 1919 had a record high of 88F later edged out, followed by a record low max of 48F on the 10th. May 10, 1895 had a high of 90F, one deg short of the current record, and a low minimum of 39F on May 13th (still valid). That was followed by record highs on May 31 and June 1 (96F) which had been preceded by more temporary records on May 29 and 30. May 23 1902 (86F) was at that time a record high, and 43F on May 29 1902 is still the record low. This couplet is no longer valid as the record for May 23 has increased to 94 (1964) but in that year the temperature on May 29 was only 49F (a larger overall drop). May 24 1884 had a record high of 86F (since overtaken) and a still-valid record high min (70F) followed by record low max and min on the 29th (51, 43) and another record low on the 30th (42F). The record low of 55F for July 4 (1986) was followed by two days at 98F on 6th and 7th, both tied or set records that would fall in 1999 and 2010. Records of 92F, 93F Sep 9-10 1895 (since broken) were followed by a near-record low max of 62F on the 12th, quite a fast drop (but the record even then was 60F (1873). So in other words there are numerous occasions when the temperature flipped from one extreme to the other within a week. This is not a comprehensive list when it comes to the 9 to 15 day range, I left out several less spectacular but valid cases in that time range. I tried to find anything shorter than eight days but would need to validate as the work was done from color coded entries in max and min logs in my research file.

All four locations beat or tied their seasonal max to date yesterday, values updated in the table above.

After the first half of June, anomalies and seasonal max values ... _________________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA 16th _____ (15d anom) __________+1.7 _+1.3 _+1.7 ___+0.4 _+3.1 _+4.0 ___ +2.2 _+4.5 _-2.1 26th _____ (25d anom) _________ +0.1 _-0.7 _-0.4 ___+1.8 _+3.8 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.2 _-1.8 16th _____ (p30d anom GFS) ___+2.0 _+1.5 _+1.0 ___+1.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +3.0 _+4.0 _-1.0 26th _____ (p30d anom) ________+0.5 _ 0.0 _ 0.0____+2.0 _+3.0 _+4.0 ___ +2.5 _+3.0 _-0.5 30th/1st __ final anomalies _____-0.3 _ -0.6 _-0.1 ___ +1.6 _+3.2 _+3.7 ___ +2.0 _ +2.8 _-0.9 to July 10 __ Seasonal max ____ 99 __ 93 __ 92 _____ 99 __ 99 __104 _____101 _ 114 _ 91 (later updates are in July thread now) 16th _ End of month projections are basically persistence of mostly warm trends established so far, modified by somewhat different signals emerging over the next two weeks; worth noting that the SEA annual max was first established Apr 7 and only tied once in June so far. (76F on June 21) Consensus would score 686/900 on these projections; most forecasters would be close to that score as errors would balance out to some extent. Slightly higher estimated scores are those for wxallannj and wxdude64 but the range is quite small overall, and probably no more precise than the margin of error in the estimates. Normal would score 490/900. 26th _ SEA finally getting some hot weather, 87F on Sat 25th, likely to be hotter 26th and perhaps 27th. BOS may also break 90 today (26th). New updates for anomalies and projections, preliminary scoring underway. (update, SEA 91 on 27th, and BOS now at 90F 26th). 30th _ Final anomalies posted overnight, scoring updated.

Perhaps a long-range clue in this news item -- Yellowstone River flooding sees that river higher than at any point in recorded history, 1918 was the previous high. Assuming that to be in the late spring flood season also, 1918 became quite a hot summer and holds the record of 104 F for August. Late July to mid-August was the hottest portion of the summer; June 1918 and early July had some rather cool weather at times.

Any thoughts as to heavy rainfall potential tomorrow into early Thursday? Northern NJ, e PA, lower Hudson valley look prime to see 2-4 inch totals (over 24-36h). Maybe more like 1-1.5" in NYC metro. That earlier question about radar echoes -- looks legit from satellite, developing feeder bands into the developing low. That low is why I think there could be locally heavy rainfalls, frontal wave likely to develop near MD/PA border moving towards TTN and EWR, areas north of its track would see heaviest amounts.

As is the custom of this thread, updated files are made available on the Net-weather equivalent thread (they are too large to download here). https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-182-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2022/page/4/#comments The only changes made to them since the last time they were available would be the addition of daily data and various other monthly data for March, April and May 2022.

Severe heat is building in Texas but it isn't spreading northeast, it seems to be wanting to back-build into the Great Basin region later in the week. The first half of June looks to be rather cool in the eastern U.S. with anomalies in the -1 to -3 F range.

It is supposed to develop to TS status later according to forecast discussion, if so, will count 1/0/0, if not, outside the scope of the contest.

__ Log of record lows 1971-80 __ 1971 _ Except for a very warm October and a mild December, long portions of this year ran slightly below average but not often into record cold territory. It was quite cold from mid-January to about the 2nd of February. There were two record low maxima with a count of 1.5; both have survived to the end of the data. March 26th (36F) was within 1F of the tied 1872, 1937 and 1947 records (35F). Also Nov 9th (38F) was within 1F of the 1894 record of 37F. The maximum of 16F on Jan 19th was within 2F of the 1904 record but that changed to six degrees in 1994. There was one record low minimum (Nov 9th -- at 28F) which was later broken by 1976 (24F). The minimum of 7F on Jan 20th was within 2F of the 1946 record but lost ground in 1985 and ended up 7F short by 1994. There were no "coldest since" record low minima in 1971. (records for 1971 ... ) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Feb 1 ____ 12 ___ (7) _______ 1900_16F ________ eventual record low maximum ___ 1.0, 1.0 Mar 26 __ (36) __ (30) _____ not records in 1971 (1872,1937,1947 _35F, 1960 _20F) June 15 __ 60 __ (56) ______ tied 1916 _60F ___ eventual record low maximum (t1916)_1.5, 1.5 Nov 9 ____(38)*_ 28 _______1887,1923 _30F __ 1976 _24F ____________________________ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 0.0 ____________________________ * max 38F on Nov 9th within 1F of 1894 record 37F. 1972 _ 1972 was a rather cold year in general much like 1940, but with less of a large collection of record lows and more near misses. This may have been in part due to the larger urban heat island. From 2.5 record low maxima, 1.0 has survived. Jan 16th (15F) was only 1F above the 1920 record low maximum. The interval following Hurricane Agnes (around June 22-26) was persistently cool with highs mostly in the 60s. The maximum on Oct 20th (48F) was one degree above the 1952 record (47F) but that changed to 4 deg when 1974 lowered the record to 44F. From 4.5 record low minima, 1.5 have survived. Aug 11th (57F) was 1F above the 1962 record of 56F. April 9th (29F) was within 2F of the existing record but that increased to 4F in 1977. Oct 18th (37F) was 2F above tied records (35F) from 1929 and 1939 that would later include 1974. In addition, there were four "coldest since" record low minima, and a count of 2.833; details follow: Coldest since _____ 1972 value __ tied by ___ count Apr 26, 1919 (31F) _____ 38 ____ 1934,76 ____ 0.33 May 26, 1967 (42F) ____ 46 ______ -- -- _______ 1.33 Aug 5, 1886,1912,51 (56F)_ 59 ____ -- -- _______ 2.33 Aug 11, 1962 (56F) _____ 57 _____ 2007 ______ 2.83 (records for 1972 ... ) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 16 __ (15) __ ( 5) _____ not records in 1972 (1920 _16F, 1893,2004 _1F) Apr 8 ____(43) __ 26 ______1880,1888,1920_28F _1982 _25F _____________________________ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 0.0 May 9 ___ 49 __ (46) _____ tied 1873 _49F ____ 1977 _44F ______________________________ 0.5, 0.0 June 10 __ (72) __ 49 _____ tied 1881 _49F ______ eventual record low minimum (t1881) __ ____ __ 1.5, 0.5 June 11___(69) __ 46 ______1877, 1881 _50F ___ eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ __ 2.5, 1.5 June 25 ___66 __ (58) _____ 1896 _67F _________ 1974 _63F _____________________________ 1.5, 0.0 July 6 _____(77) __ 56 ______1956_57F __________ 1979 _54F _____________________________ ____ ____ __ 3.5, 1.5 Aug 11 ___(80) __(57) _____ not records in 1972 (1931,33,62 _68F , 1962_56F) Oct 19 ____43 __ (35) ______ 1940 _ 45F ___ eventual record low maximum ________ 2.5, 1.0 Oct 20 ___ (48)*__ 32 ______ 1940,52 _33F _ 1974 _31F _________________________________ ____ ____ __ 4.5, 1.5 ________________________________ * Max 48F on Oct 20th was 1F above 1952 record (47F) but 1974 lowered that to 44F. 1973 _ This was a warmer year and had very few colder than average periods. The first half of January was rather cold but not record-breaking. There were no record low maxima, and the closest approach was 3F on Nov 10th (41F) (record 38F in 1873). There was one record low minimum (41F May 18th) which has survived (counts 1.0). The low of 58F on July 12th was 1F above the 1926 record of 57F. The minimum of 30F on Nov 11th was 2F above existing record lows, and this increased to six degrees when 2017 reached 24F. In addition there were two "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 1.33; details follow: Oct 18th (37F) was 2F above tied records (35F) from 1929 and 1939 that would later include 1974. Coldest since _____ 1973 value __ tied by ___ count Apr 14, 1950 (26F) _____ 33 ______ -- -- _______ 1.0 July 12, 1926 (57F) _____ 58 ___ 1945, 1990 __ 1.33 (records in 1973 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 18 ___(59) __ 41 ______ 1882 _42F ______ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 July 12 ___ (76) __ (58) _____ not records in 1973 (1940_69F, later 1990_67F ; 1926_57F ) 1974 _ It was a generally balanced year with some warmer periods and some colder, notably June and October. From a count of 2.33 low maxima, 2.0 have survived. Also, Apr 9th (max 40F) was within 1F of the 1885 (later tied 2003) record of 39F, and July 24th (68F) was within 1F of the 1904 record (67F). After records set on 25th and 26th morning low, June 26th (65F) was within 2F of the 1893 record (63F), June 27th (64F) within 3F and June 28th (62F) 2F above the 1938 record (60F). This was a particularly cool late June spell by any standards. There were also 3.17 record low minima of which 2.33 survive. Oct 4th (38F), following a record tied on the 3rd, was within 1F of the 1888 record low (37F). June 27th (57F) was also within 2F of the 1940 record low (55F), and July 25th (59F) was within 2F of the 1953 record (57F). Oct 19th (32F) was within 2F of the 1940 record (34F) and following a record low on the 20th, the 21st (32F) was within 1F of the 1871 record (31F). In addition there were six "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 4.5; details follow: Coldest since _____ 1974 value __ tied by ___ count May 5, 1891 (34F) _____ 40 ______ 1917 _______ 0.5 July 25, 1953 (57F) _____ 59 ______ 1997 _______ 1.0 Sep 24, 1963 (40F) _____ 44 ______ -- -- _________ 2.0 Oct 4, 1888 (37F) _______38 ______ 1945 ________2.5 Oct 19, 1940 (30F) _____ 32 ______ -- -- _________ 3.5 Oct 21, 1871 (31F) _____ 32 ______ -- -- _________ 4.5 (records in 1974 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Apr 9 ____(40) __ (32) _____ not records in 1974 (1885,2003 _39F, 1885,1950 _27F, later 1977 _25F) Apr 10 ___(48) __ 27 _____t1882,1909,17,20,50 _29F _eventual record low minimum (t1985,97)*___ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 0.33 June 25 ___63 __ (57) _____ 1972 _66F _________ eventual record low maximum ____________ 1.0, 1.0 June 26___(65) __ 56 ______tied 1893 _56F _____ eventual record low minimum (t1893, 1979) _ ____ ____ __ 1.50, 0.67 June 27 __ (64) __(57) _____not records in 1974 (1968_61F, 1940 _55F) June 28 __ (62) __(57) _____not records in 1974 (1938_60F, 1888,1893,1915 _54F) July 24 ___ (68) __(60) _____not records in 1974 (1904_67F, ) Sep 4 _____ 67 __(57) _____t1872,74 _67F ______ 1984 _66F ______________________________________ 1.33, 1.0 Oct 3 _____(50) __ 38 _____ t1888,99 _38F ______ eventual record low minimum (t1888,99) _____ ____ ____ __ 1.83, 1.0 Oct 4 _____(59) __(38) _____ not records in 1974 (1883_51F, 1888 _37F) Oct 18 ___ (55) __ 35 ______ t1929,39 _35F _____ eventual record low minimum (t1929,39)______ ____ ____ __ 2.17, 1.33 Oct 19 ___ (49) __ (32) _____ not records in 1974 (1972_43F, 1940 _30F) Oct 20 ____ 44 __ 31 ______1952 _47F, 1972 _32F _eventual record low max & min _________ 2.33, 2.0 __ 3.17, 2.33 Oct 21 ____(48) __(32) _____ not records in 1974 (1888_43F, 1871 _31F) _____________________________ * Apr 10 is the last minimum to be (a) first set and (b) later tied in the series. 1975 _ This was generally a rather warm year (in particular May and November) but it had some rather brief cold spells. The first half of April was persistently quite cold (Apr 4-6 37F, 37F, 41F daily maxima) but no records were set. There was just one record low maximum (Aug 7th) which has survived, for counts of 1.0. June 12th (63F) was within 1F of the 1924 record (62F). July 14th (75F) was within 2F of tied record low maxima, and Sep 23rd (59F) was within 2F of the 1963 record of 57F. Also there was just one tied record low minimum (Sep 14th) for counts of 0.5. March 9th (16F) was within 2F of the 1883 record (14F) but that increased to 5F when 1996 dropped to 11F. The minimum of 60F on Aug 7th was 2F higher than the existing record of 58F (1869) and eventually 3F higher after 1994 hit 57F. The last two days of October (33F, 31F) were also 2F higher than existing records from 1925, which has not changed since. Lows from March 27th to April 10th were often within about five degrees of record lows (23F on Mar 27th and 27F Apr 4-5 were notable). In addition there were two "coldest since" record low minima, both tied for a count of 1.0. Coldest since _____ 1975 value __ tied by ___ count Oct 3rd 1888,99,1974 (38F) _ 41 ____ 2003 ____ 0.5 Oct 31st, 1887, 1925 (29F) __ 31 ____ 1988 ____ 1.0 (records in 1975 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) June 12 __(63) __(58) ______not records in 1975 (1924 _62F, 1951_51F later 1979_48F) Aug 7 ____ 64 __ (60) ______ 1886 _66F _______ eventual record low maximum _______ 1.0, 1.0 Sep 14 ___(66) __ 46 ______ tied 1911 _46F __ eventual record low minimum (t1911) ___ ____ ____ __ 0.5, 0.5 1976 _ After a cold January, February to April were generally rather warm but the rest of the year became quite cold again. The autumn and early winter (into Jan 1977) were regarded as exceptionally cold. The count of record low maxima was only 1.0 (Dec 3rd which has survived) but there were several days close to record values. Jan 18th (18F) was within 2F of the 1921 record (later this changed to five in 1977) and Jan 23rd was 15F (record 11F 1871). July 23rd (72F) was within 2F of tied records (70F). Oct 18th (50F) was within 2F of the 1909 record (48F), this changed to five in 2009. The count for record low minima was 6.0 and all have survived. This is the largest total in this category since 1963 and would not be equalled after 1976. May 18th (42F) was within 1F of the 1973 record (41F) and May 23rd (44F) was within 1F of the 1963 record (43F). Nov 8 (30F) was within 1F of the 1886 record later tied in 2019 (29F). Oct 27th (29F) was within 1F of the 1936 record (28F). Jan 23rd (-1F) was within 2F of the 1936 record (-3F), and Apr 27th (38F) was within 2F of the 1932 record (36F). May 20th (45F) was within 2F of tied records (1907, 2002 43F). In addition there were eleven "coldest since" record low minima, with a count of 9.58, matching 1967 (which had twelve for the same count) and tied for the highest number of "coldest since" record low minima. Adding that to six actual records and several other days that did not qualify as "coldest since" within 2F gives a total of 22 days with at least near-record cold which, without the urban heat island, would have pushed this year well into the top echelons for cold weather. Coldest since _____ 1976 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 22, 1888 (0F) _____ 5 ___ 1924, 1970, 2014 _ 0.25 Jan 23, 1936 (-3F) ____-1 ________ -- -- _________ 1.25 Apr 11, 1909 (24F) ___28 _______ -- -- __________2.25 Apr 12, 1874 (22F) ___25 _______ -- -- __________3.25 Apr 26, 1919 (31F) ___38 ______ 1934, 1972 ___3.58 May 18, 1973 (41F) __ 42 _______ -- -- __________4.58 May 23, 1963 (43F) __ 44 _______ -- -- __________5.58 July 18, 1925 (57F) ___60 _______ -- -- __________6.58 July 26, 1920 (55F) ___58 _______ -- -- __________7.58 Oct 27, 1936 (28F) ___ 29 _______ -- -- __________8.58 Dec 13, 1960 (8F) ____ 12 _______ -- -- __________9.58 (records in 1976 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 18 __ (75) __(42) _____ not records in 1976 (1881 _53F , 1973 _41F) May 19 __ (52) __ 38 ______ 1882 _42F ________eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 May 23 __ (72) __ (44) _____ not records in 1976 (1916_56F later 1982_55F , 1963 _43F) Aug 31 ___(74) __ 50 ______ 1912, 65 _ 51F ___ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 2.0, 2.0 Oct 27 ___ (42) __(29) _____ not records in 1976 (1869 _39F ,1936 _28F) Oct 28 ___ (45) __ 29 ______ 1914,36 33F _____ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 3.0, 3.0 Nov 8 ___ (41) __(30) ______not records in 1976 (1886 _38F; 1886, 2019 _29F) Nov 9 ____(41) __ 24 ______ 1971 _26F ________ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 4.0, 4.0 Dec 3 ____ 23 ____ 9 _____ 1886_24F, 1940_11F _ eventual record low max & min __ 1.0, 1.0 __ 5.0, 5.0 Dec 14 ___(31) __ 12 ______1893, 98_13F _______eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ __ 6.0, 6.0 1977 _ January remained very cold with several records and near misses. After that, the general trend was warm but occasionally highly variable allowing some brief cold intervals during the spring. May 9th also had the latest trace of snow. From 4.0 record low maxima, the surviving count is a full 4.0. Sep 22nd (59F) was within 2F of the tied 1875 and 1904 records (57F). There were two record low minima which have also survived. (counts 2.0) ... Jan 18th and 29th (which had record low maxima) were within 1F of existing low minimum records as documented in the table of records. May 9th (36F) was also within 1F of the 1947 record as shown, after May 8th (39F) had come within 2F of the 1947 record (37F), which later fell to 36F in 2020. There were also two "coldest since" record low minima, with a count of 2.0. Details follow: Coldest since _____ 1977 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 29, 1873 ( 0F) ____ +1 ________ -- -- _________ 1.0 June 8, 1932 (47F) ___ 50 ________ -- -- _________ 2.0 (also 2F on Jan 18th was coldest reading between record lows of 1F in 1875 and 0F in 1982.) (records in 1977 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 17 ____ 12 __ -2 _______1965 _16F, 1893 _5F _eventual record max & min ______ 1.0, 1.0 __ 1.0, 1.0 Jan 18 ____ 13 __ ( 2)*_____ 1921_16F________ eventual record low maximum ____ 2.0, 2.0 Jan 29 ____ 13 __ ( 1)*_____ 1885 _15F _______ eventual record low maximum ____ 3.0, 3.0 Apr 9 ____ (44) __ 25 ______ 1885, 1950 _27F _ eventual record low minimum _____ ____ ____ __ 2.0, 2.0 May 9 _____ 44 __ (36)^_____1873, 1972 _49F _ eventual record low maximum ____ 4.0, 4.0 ____________________________ * minima of 2F on Jan 18th, 1F on 29th, both within 1F of record lows (1F Jan 18, 1875; 0F Jan 29, 1873). __ the Jan 18th record would fall to 0F in 1982. ^ minimum of 36F on May 9th was within 1F of 1947 record (35F) which later fell to 34F in 2020. 1978 _ This was a rather cold year but was more prone to sustained cooler than average spells than excursions into record low territory. There was only one record set, a low maximum on July 4th (62F) with a count of 1.0. July 14th (74F) was within 1F of the tied record (73F). Other maxima within 2F of a record were 45F on May 5th (1891 had 43F), and 54F on May 16th (1881 had 52F), Aug 5th (70F) compared to record 1903 68F, Sep 8th (65F) with record in 1918 (63F). There were no record low minima. The closest approach was 1F on July 4th, when 58F was one degree above the 1938 record of 57F (this has since dropped to 55F in 1986, which means that the following 2F "near misses" are now closest to record lows). The 2F near misses include 51F on June 14th (49F in 1875), 59F on July 12th (1926 had 57F), and Oct 8th (41F), and 9th (39F) which were 2F above records until 1988 changed that to 4F for the 8th. Also Oct 18th (37F) was two degrees above the tied record low. In addition, there were seven "coldest since" record lows with a count of 4.583. Coldest since _____ 1978 value __ tied by ___ count Apr 3, 1954 ( 24F) _______31 _____ -- -- ______ 1.0 May 1, 1880 (35F) ______ 38 ____ 1963 ______1.5 Aug 1, 1895,1964 (59F) _ 62 _____ -- -- ______ 2.5 Sep 14, 1911,75 (46F) ___51 ____ 1985 ______3.0 Oct 18, 1929,39,74 (35F) _ 37 _____ -- -- ______ 4.0 Oct 24, 1969 (31F) ______ 36 ___ 2002,03 ____4.33 Nov 26, 1880, 1938 (16F)_ 25 _ 1940,49,93 __ 4.58 (records in 1978 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) July 4 ______62 __ (58)*___ 1941 _64F _______ eventual record low maximum ____ 1.0, 1.0 July 14 ____(74) __(67) _____ not records in 1978 (1884,1960,1963,2017_73F, 1877,1888,1926 _58F) ________________________________ * Min of 58F on July 4th was one degree above 1938 record of 57F, since that, 1986 had 55F. 1979 _ After a stormy and rather cold January, February turned bitterly cold; it was well below freezing continuously from Feb 9th to 19th although only one record was set with only one near miss included (both on the 18th, the record low was a minimum, the near miss a maximum). Other days were colder but records for those days were lower too. Then the spring was relatively mild, but the summer had unusually cool days and nights from time to time, setting a number of records. There was only one record low maximum (count 1.0), Feb 18th (17F) as noted in the table of records came within 1F of the 1958 record, and also, April 9th (41F) was 2F above the tied records (39F) and Oct 11th (50F) was 2F above the 1951 record of 48F. The last two months of the year were very mild. There were 5.083 record low minima, 4.83 of which have survived (some tied earlier records). Feb 14th and June 25th were within 1F of record lows (see table for details) and so was July 4th although its departure increased later. Aug 12th (57F) was within 2F of the 1889 record of 55F, and Aug 13th (57F) also 2F above the 1930 record of 55F. Oct 10th (37F) was within 2F of the 1888 record low (35F). Only one of these qualified as a "coldest since" either due to later records or smaller 1F departures in other years. 1979 managed one "coldest since" with a 24 degree increase over the lowest ever reading in 1934. The usual range is 1 to 4 deg. Several colder nights in the mid-February cold spell were beaten out by slightly colder readings much earlier in the series, as 1899 held several of those records. Without the larger urban heat island, Feb 1979 would likely be more prominent in the record tables. In addition to those, there were four "coldest since" record low minima with a count of 3.33. Coldest since _____ 1979 value __ tied by ___ count Feb 9, 1934 (-15F) ____ 9 __________ -- -- ______ 1.0 June 25, 1873 (53F) ___54__________ -- -- ______ 2.0 July 7, 1914 (56F) _____59 ______ 1942,48 ____ 2.33 Oct 11, 1964 (34F) ____37 _________ -- -- ______ 3.33 (also 3F on Feb 14th was coldest between records of 2F in 1916 and -1F in 2016). (records in 1979 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Feb 14 ____(17) ___( 3) ____not records in 1979 (1916 _12F & 2F, later 2016 -1F) Feb 18 ____(17)*___0 _____1896 _1F __________ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 June 12 ___ (70) __ 48 ____1951 _ 51F ________ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 2.0, 2.0 June 25 ___ (75) __(54) ____not records in 1979 ( ,1873 _53F) June 26 ___ (74) __ 56 ____t1893, 1974 _56F __ eventual record low minimum (t1893, 1974)____ __ 2.33, 2.33 July 4 _____ (71) __(58) ____not records in 1979 (1978_62F, 1938 _57F later 1986 _55F) July 5 ______(69) __ 53 ____ 1927 _54F ________ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 3.33, 3.33 July 6 _____ (78) __ 54 _____1972_56F _________ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 4.33, 4.33 Aug 12 ____ 64 __ (57) ____1922 _66F _________ eventual record low maximum ____ 1.0, 1.0 Aug 17 ____(78) __ 56 ____tied 1881 _56F _____ eventual record low minimum (t1881)_ ____ __ 4.83, 4.83 Sep 20 ____ (67) __ 45 ____t1871,1920,1956 _45F __ 1993 _44F _____________________________ ____ ____ __5.08, 4.83 _____________________________________________________ * Max of 17F on Feb 18th was within 1F of the record low maximum of 16F from 1958. The previous day had been only 13F but the record for the 17th was 7F in 1896. 1980 _ This was a rather average year with cool spells in late February, June and around Christmas in December. None of those managed to set a record low maximum and in fact the closest approach was only 5 F which is the largest departure from record territory so far. The days that came that close were Nov 11th (42F - the margin increased when 1987 reached a lower record value of 33F), Nov 18th (38F), and Dec 25th (20F) which later saw the margin increased to 7 F by a lower record set in 1983. Leap Year Day (Feb 29th) had 21F against the 1884 record of only 12F. There were two record low minima (count 2.0) which have both survived, June 9th had 47F and Dec 25th -1F. In addition, there were six "coldest since" record low minima, for a count of 4.333. Coldest since _____ 1980 value __ tied by ___ count Feb 29, 1884 (4F) ____ 12 __________ -- -- ______ 1.0 June 11, 1972 (46F) __ 49 __________ -- -- ______ 2.0 June 12, 1979 (49F) __ 52 __________ -- -- ______ 3.0 Sep 27, 1947,57 (41F) _45 _________1989 _____ 3.5 Oct 23, 1969 (32F) ___ 37 ____ 1997, 2003 ____ 3.83 Dec 26, 1914 (3F) _____ 8 _________ 1983 _____ 4.33 (records in 1980 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) June 9 ____(63) __ 47 _____1913_49F ________ eventual record low minimum _____ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 Dec 25____(20) __ -1 ______1872 _4F _________ eventual record low minimum _____ ____ ____ __ 2.0, 2.0 Summary of records set in the decade 1971-1980 The pace of records slackened again, with a total of 14.33 record low maxima of which 12.5 have survived. At random these numbers would be 34 and 24. However, each year had one or two days within 1F of records and several more within 2 or 3, so in fact there was probably about the same amount of cold air present, it was more of a case of urban heat island modification taking the sting out of the cold slightly. And there were some very cold intervals in the decade, most notably late 1976 into January of 1977. The count of record low minima was closer to random expectation, as 25.25 records yielded 20.17 eventual surviving records. There were 33.5 "coldest since" record low minima bringing the total recorded to 234.75. That would be out of 333 records now set. That appears to include 325 fully set, 8 with further ties to come, so the ratio for "coldest since" is actually 234.75 out of 325 possible; 130 coldest since marks (or ties) will still be recorded later than 1980, about a third of them because the record is not yet fully set, and two-thirds because a colder value or tied value lies in the future to eliminate any other contenders. Now moving on to the decade of 1981-90, the tables will include all near-misses of 1 or 2 degrees (from 1951 to present it has been just 1 deg with mentions in the annual summaries of those at 2F above record values). Since the tables have all the data, the annual summaries will now be more general and will not contain detailed descriptions of these near misses. The format will be the same, values within 1 or 2 F will be underlined and in brackets. If they come with an actual record value in the other category, the comparison will be in a note below the table. Otherwise the comparison to records will be in italics within the table. ___ Log of records for 1981-1990 ___ ___ includes all cases within 2F of records ___ 1981 _ January was a cold month, and February turned very mild. From that point on, much of 1981 was rather close to average or slightly cooler than normal but with very few records. The two records, one of each type and they tied earlier records, so that counts are 0.5 for low maximum and 0.33 for low minimum. Note: from now on, almost all records set are surviving to the end of the data, so rather than always mentioning that, we will just confine the commentary to those few cases that do not survive, as we gradually close in on the last records of each type to be set but later are broken. There were also no other cases within 2 F deg of records as can be seen from the absence of entries in the table of records. Before that, there were three "coldest since" record lows, none tied, for a count of 3.0. Details follow: Coldest since _____ 1981 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 4, 1918 (-3F) _______ 5 ________ -- -- ______ 1.0 Jan 13, 1912,14 (-3F) ___ 5 ________ -- -- ______ 2.0 Aug 17, 1881,1979 (56F)_ 59 ______ -- -- _______ 3.0 (records in 1981 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 4 ______14 __ ( 5) _____ tied 1904 _14F ____ eventual record low maximum (t1904) ___ 0.5, 0.5 Jan 12 ____(15) ___ 2 ______ t1886, 1968 _2F___ eventual record low minimum (t1886,1968) __ ____ __ 0.33, 0.33 1982 _ This was quite a cold year until near the end when record warmth arrived in December. Mid-January and parts of April as well as the summer were notable for cold records. From 3.5 record low maxima, the count is 3.33 (one was tied a third time, later, in 2003). There was also one maximum within 1F of a record. There were 4.5 record low minima, for a count of 4.33 (Aug 29th was tied a third time, later, in 1986). Four more cold minima were within 2F of record lows as shown in the table. In addition there were six "coldest since" record low minima with a count of 5.33. Details follow: Coldest since _____ 1982 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 11, 1968 (3F) ________ 5 _______ -- -- _______ 1.0 Jan 12, 1886,1968,81 (2F)__6 _______ -- -- _______ 2.0 Jan 17, 1977 (-2F) ________0 _______ -- -- _______ 3.0 Mar 28, 1923 (13F) _____ 22 _______ -- -- _______ 4.0 June 13, 1953 (51F) ____ 52 ________ -- -- _______ 5.0 Aug 23, 1895 (52F) _____ 54 ____ 1923,25 ______5.33 (records in 1982 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 11 ____ (17) __( 5) _____ not records in 1982 (1873 _12F, 1968 _3F) Jan 17 ____ (19) __( 0) _____ not records in 1982 (1977 _12F & -2F) Jan 18 ____ (15)*__ 0 ______1875 _1F ________ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 Apr 6 _____ (41) __ 21 _____ 1881 _23F _______eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 2.0, 2.0 Apr 7 _____ 30 __ 21 ______ 1875_37F, 1881_23F _eventual record low max & min_ 1.0, 1.0 __ 3.0, 3.0 Apr 8 _____(43) __ 25 ______ 1972 _26F ______ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 4.0, 4.0 Apr 9 _____ 39 __ (34) ______ tied 1885 _39F __eventual record low maximum (t1885,2003)_1.5, 1.33 May 23 ___ 55 __ (51) ______1916_ 56F ________eventual record low maximum ____ 2.5, 2.33 June 7 ____(62) __ (55) _____ not records in 1982 (1891, 1905 _61F, 1879_47F ) June 13 ___ 55 __ (52)*_____ 1962 _58F _______ eventual record low maximum ____ 3.5, 3.33 Aug 22 ___ (73) __(54) _____ not records in 1982 (1965_68F, later 2007 _65F; 1895 _52F) Aug 29 ____(72) __ 50 ______tied 1965 _50F ___ eventual record low minimum (t1965,1986) ____ __ 4.5, 4.33 ________________________ * Max of 15F on Jan 18th was within 2F of the record set in 1977 (13F). * Min of 52F on June 13th was within 1F of the record set in 1953 (51F). 1983 _ This was quite a warm year and very wet, so not many chances for record low temperatures. May and December had the coldest spells. In fact there would have been no records at all, had there not been a cold outbreak around Christmas setting one of each type of record (counts for both were 1.0). In addition to those, there was one low maximum within one degree on August 13th, and one low minimum within 1F on May 16th and two within 2F on the following two days. In addition, there were five "coldest since" record low minima, for a count of 3.833. Details below: Coldest since _____ 1983 value __ tied by ___ count May 16, 1878 (42F) _____ 43 ___ 1959,2016 __ 0.33 May 17, 1956 (39F) _____ 41 ______ -- -- _______ 1.33 Aug 14, 1964 (54F) ______ 59 ______ -- -- _______ 2.33 Dec 25, 1980 (-1F) _______ 4 _______ -- -- _______ 3.33 Dec 26, 1914 (3F) ________ 8 _______ 1980 _____ 3.83 (records in 1983 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 16 __(63) __ (43) _____ not records in 1983 (1888 _52F, 1878 _42F) May 17 __(63) __ (41) _____ not records in 1983 (1881,1915 _52F, 1956 _39F) May 18 __(62) __ (43) _____ not records in 1983 (1881 _53F, 1973 _41F) Aug 13 ___(69) __(61) _____ not records in 1983 (1873, 1934 _68F, 1930 _55F) Dec 24 ___ (22) ___6 _______1872, 1883 _7F___eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 Dec 25 ____13 ___ (4) ______1872 _15F _______ eventual record low maximum ___ 1.0, 1.0 1984 _ There were longer cold spells again in 1984. Although only two low maximum records were set (counts 2.0), there were also numerous "near misses" ... January, March, and September were all rather cold months. While there were no record low minima, the closest approach was within 1F (see Mar 10 in tables). There were also three "coldest since" record low minima with the count 3.0; details follow: Coldest since _____ 1984 value __ tied by ___ count Mar 10, 1929 (12F) _____ 13 ______ -- -- _______ 1.0 July 7, 1963 (54F) _______ 59 ______ -- -- _______ 2.0 Sep 16, 1966 (47F) ______ 48 ______ -- -- _______ 3.0 (records in 1984 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 20 ___(21) __ (12) _____ not records in 1984 (1961_19F, later 1994 _15F; 1946 _5F, later 1985 _4F, 1994 _0F ) Jan 21 ___(19) __ ( 8.) _____ not records in 1984 (1888_16F, 1F ... later 1985 _9F, -2F) Mar 10 __(30) __ (13) _____ not records in 1984 (1877_29F, later 1987 _28F; 1929 _12F) May 16 __(55) __ (44) _____ not records in 1983 (1888 _52F, 1878 _42F) July 1 ____(71) __(68) _____ not records in 1984 (1869,71,88 _70F, 1943 _52F) Sep 4 ____ 66 __ (61) _____ 1872,1874,1974 _67F _eventual record low maximum ___ 1.0, 1.0 Sep 16 __ (65) __ (48) _____ not records in 1984 (1872 _60F, 1966_47F) Sep 27 __ (58) __ (48) _____ not records in 1984 (1893 _56F, 1941,57 _41F) Sep 28 ___ 53 __(44)______1882 _55F __________ eventual record low maximum ___ 2.0, 2.0 1985 _ This was a rather variable year for temperatures with brief warm and cold spells, none particularly impressive. There was only one record low maximum on January 21st, (9F -- there has not been a lower maximum since with 10F in Jan 1994) and the only other notable spell of near-record cold daytime readings came in late June (June 26th -28th 68F, 64F, 64F). So the second closest day to a record was within 3F on June 27th. These three days all had minima within 1 or 2 F of record lows and make the table for those. Record low minima amounted to a count of 2.5, and of that 1.33 survived. There were also four "coldest since" record low minima with a count of 3.0. Details follow: Coldest since _____ 1985 value __ tied by ___ count June 26, 1873,1974,79 (56F) _57 ____ 1986 _____ 0.5 June 27, 1940 (55F) ______ 56 ______ -- -- _______ 1.5 Sep 13, 1963 (46F) _______ 49 ______ -- -- _______ 2.5 Sep 14, 1911,75 (46F) ____ 51 ______ 1978 _____ 3.0 (records in 1985 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 20 ___ (23) ___ 4 _____1946 _5F __________ 1994 _0F ______________________________ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 0.0 Jan 21 ____ 9 ___ -2 ______1888 _16F, 1F _____ eventual record low max & min ___1.0, 1.0 __ 2.0, 1.0 Apr 10 ___(49) __ 27 _____t1974 _27F _______ eventual record low minimum (t1985,97)_______ __2.5, 1.33 June 26 __(68) __(57) _____ not records in 1985 (1893 _63F , 56F _1873, 1974, 1979) June 27 __ (64) __(56) _____ not records in 1985 (1968 _61F , 1940 _55F) June 28 __ (64) __(56) _____ not records in 1985 (1938 _60F, 1888,1893,1915,1995 _54F) 1986 _ This was a rather bland year for temperature trends, and most months were fairly close to normal values. The summer was rather cool. No record low maxima were noted, the closest during the year was within 2F (July 12th) which later became 3F (after 1990), so that April 23rd, June 7th, July 31st and Sep 4th then shared the closest approach of 3F with July 12th, to a daily record low maximum in 1986. There were 3.33 record low minima, of which 2.33 have survived. This marks the last time a record low minimum would be later beaten or tied, so all years after 1986 have either no records or a perfect survival rate. 1999 has the last instance of a broken low maximum record set during the year. There were also numerous lows that were within 1 or 2 F of records, as noted. In addition, there were six "coldest since" record low minima, for a count of 4.67. Coldest since _____ 1986 value __ tied by ___ count June 26, 1893,1974,79 (56F) _ 57 ____ 1985 ___ 0.5 Aug 28, 1885 (50F) _______ 52 ______ -- -- _____1.5 Aug 30, 1965 (50F) _______ 51 ______ -- -- _____ 2.5 Aug 31, 1976 (50F) _______ 54 ______ -- -- _____ 3.5 Sep 8, 1871 (52F) _________54 __ five others* _ 3.67 Nov 14, 1905 (20F) _______ 22 ______ -- -- _____ 4.67 ___________ * Sep 8th tied with 1877, 1914, 1951, 1955, 1956 (records in 1986 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Apr 23 __ (43) __ (35) ____ not records in 1986 (1883 _40F, 1872 _29F) June 7 __ (64) __ (60) ____ not records in 1986 (1891, 1905 _61F, 1879 _47F ) June 26 __(68) __(57) ____ not records in 1986 (1893 _61F , 1873, 1974, 1979 _56F) July 4 ____(77) __ 55 _____ 1938 _ 57F _______ eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 July 12 ___(71) __ (62) ____ not records in 1986 (1940 _69F, later 1990 _67F; 1926 _57F) July 31 ___(68) __(63) ____ not records in 1986 (1923 _65F, 1895,1914 _57F) Aug 28 ___(71) __(52) ____ not records in 1986 (1940 _60F ,1885 _50F) Aug 29 ___(68) __ 50 _____t1965,82 _50F _____ eventual record low minimum (t1965,82)___ 1.33, 1.33 Aug 30 ___(76) __(51) ____ not records in 1986 (1911 _62F, 1965 _50F) Sep 4 ____(69) __ (62) ____ not records in 1986 (1984 _66F, 1872,83 _47F) Sep 8 ____(71) __ (54) ____ not records in 1986 (1918 _63F, 1871 _52F) Sep 17 ___(69) __ 45 _____1950,59 _46F ______ eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ __ 2.33, 2.33 Oct 7 ____ (60) __ (41) ____ not records in 1986 (1873 _48F, 1954, 1999 _39F) Nov 13 __ (42) __ 24 _____ 1920_25F ___________ 2019 _ 23F __________________________ ____ ____ __ 3.33, 2.33 Nov 14 __ (38) __ (22) _____ not records in 1986 (1873 _29F, 1905 _20F) 1987 _ While this was quite a warm year, there were brief cold spells, notably in late January although not close to setting records, those came in much shorter cold spells of one or two day duration. From 2.83 low maxima during the year, all have survived. There were also two 2F "near misses" as shown. There were no record low minima, the closest approach was 2F on March 11th (16F), Oct 4th (39F), Oct 14th (40F), Nov 11th (30F) and Nov 21st (18F) although Oct 14th changed to 3F after 1988, and Nov 11th changed to 6F when a lower value was recorded in 2017. That leaves March 11th, Oct 4th and Nov 21st as the closest approaches now to any record low minimum in 1987 (margin 2F). In addition, there were three "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 2.5. Coldest since _____ 1987 value __ tied by ___ count Feb 15, 1943 (-8F) ______ 4 _______ 2015 _____0.5 Mar 11, 1960 (14F) ____ 16 _______ -- -- ______ 1.5 Nov 21, 1879 (16F) ____ 18 _______ -- -- ______ 2.5 (records in 1987 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Mar 10 ___ 28 __ (15) _____ 1877 _29F _______ eventual record low maximum ____ 1.0, 1.0 Mar 11 ___(35) __ (16) _____not records in 1987 (1885 _28F, 1960_14F) May 4 ____ 48 __ (44) ______tied 1871 _48F ___ eventual record low maximum (t 1871) _1.5, 1.5 June 26 __ (65) __(61) _____ not records in 1987 (1893 _63F, 1893,1974,1979 _56F) July 7 _____ 73 __ (65) _____ t1914,43 _73F ____ eventual record low maximum (t1914,43) _1.83, 1.83 Oct 4 _____ (53) __(39) _____not records in 1987 (1883 _51F, 1888 _37F) Oct 14 ___ (60) __ (40) _____ not records in 1987 (1889 _45F, sev'l _38F, later 1988 _37F) Nov 11 ___ 33 __ (30)*______1926 _37F _______ eventual record low maximum ____2.83, 2.83 Nov 21 ___(33) __ (18) _____ not records in 1987 (1879 _24F, 16F) _____________________________ * min Nov 11th 30F was within 2F of tied records 1873, 1926, 1933 _28F but the record fell to 24F in 2017. 1988 _ Generally quite a warm year with a hot summer, there were brief cold spells, notably June 30 to July 2, and October had more sustained cold. From 2.5 record low maxima, 2.33 have survived (one gained another tie in 2004 -- this is the second last low maximum set to have a later tied value, 1992 would also have one, although the last set low maximum to be broken occurs Aug 21, 2007 breaking a record set in 1999). And from 3.5 record low minima, all have survived. This is the highest total for either record lows in the year, or surviving, after 1982 in the record. There were quite a few other lows within 2F of record low minima, as noted. In addition, from seven "coldest since" record low minima, there was a count of 6.0, beaten only twice (2000, 2018) and equalled twice more (1989, 1992) since 1988. Details follow: Coldest since _____ 1988 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 14, 1914 (-5F) _______ 5 _______ -- -- ______ 1.0 Mar 22, 1885 (12F) _____17 _______ -- -- ______ 2.0 June 9, 1980 (47F) ______52 _______ -- -- ______ 3.0 June 10, 1881,1972 (49F)_ 50_______ -- -- ______ 4.0 June 30, 1919 (53F) _____55 ______ 1923 _____ 4.5 July 1, 1943 (52F) _______53 _______ -- -- ______ 5.5 Oct 31, 1888,1925 (29F) _ 31 ______ 1975 _____ 6.0 (also 58F on July 2nd was tied coldest between record lows 56F 1888, 2001). (records in 1988 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 14 ____ 17 __ ( 5) _____tied 1893 _17F ______eventual record low maximum (t1893, 2004)_0.5, 0.33 June 4 ____(67) __(50) ____not records in 1988 (1945 _52F , 1926 _48F) June 10 ___(71) __(50) ____not records in 1988 (1881 _55F, 1881,1972 _49F) June 30 ___(78) __(55) ____not records in 1988 (1967 _65F, 1919 _53F) July 1 _____(71) __(53) ____not records in 1988 (1869,71,88 _70F, 1943 _52F) July 2 ____ (80) __(58) ____ not records in 1988 (1891 _67F, 1888, 2001 _56F) Sep 6 ____ (71) __(50) ____ not records in 1988 (1963 _56F, 1924 _48F) Sep 16 ___ (71) __(49) ____ not records in 1988 (1872 _60F, 1966 _47F) Oct 8______ 45 __ 37 _____1885 _49F ___________eventual record low maximum _____1.5, 1.33 _Oct 8 ___ (min) __37 ____ 1885,1935,64 _39F___eventual record low minimum ______ ____ ____ _ 1.0, 1.0 Oct 9 ____ (59) __ 37 _____ tied 1888 _37F _____ eventual record low minimum (t1888) __ ____ _ 1.5, 1.5 Oct 14 ___ (59) __ 37 ____ 1874,75,87 & 1934,37_t38F__eventual record low minimum __ ____ ____ _ 2.5, 2.5 Oct 31 ___ (48) __ (31) ____ not records in 1988 (1869 _41F, 1887 & 1925 _29F) Dec 12 ____20 ___ 5 ______1960 _21F, 9F ______ eventual record low max & min ______2.5, 2.33 _ 3.5, 3.5 1989 _ This year had alternating spells of warm and cold weather balancing out, and December was persistently cold although few records were set. The year had just one record low maximum (Dec 22nd) for a count of 1.0, and one tied record low minimum (Aug 7th) for a count of 0.5. There were a few additional "near misses" in the 1-2F range above record lows. In addition, there were (after 2022 removed one) six "coldest since" record low minima, with a count of 5.0. **The last entry in the list was removed by 7F in 2022. Details follow: Coldest since _____ 1989 value __ tied by ___ count July 16, 1926,46 (56F) __ 60 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 Aug 8, 1903 (54F) _______56 ______ -- -- ______ 2.0 Sep 27, 1947,57 (41F) __ 45 _____ 1980 _____ 2.5 Dec 3, 1976 (9F) ________18 ______ -- -- ______ 3.5 Dec 14, 1976 (12F) _____ 14 ______ 2005 ____ 4.0 Dec 23, 1883 (-1F) _______ 8 ______ -- -- ______ 5.0 ** Dec 24, 1983 (6F) _____ 9 ______ -- -- ______ removed by 7F in 2022 (records in 1989 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) June 15 ___(61) __ (58) ____ not records in 1989 (1916, 71 _60F, 1933 _48F) July 17 ___ (76) __ (60) ____ not records in 1989 (1873,1949,1962 _74F, later 1992 _72F; 1892 _57F) Aug 8 _____(77) __ (56) ____ not records in 1989 (1903 _68F, 54F) Aug 9 _____ (82) __ 57 _____tied 1919 _57F___eventual record low minimum (t1919)___ ____ _ 0.5, 0.5 Aug 11 ___ (69) __ (58) ____ not records in 1989 (1931,1933,1962 _68F; 1962 _56F) Aug 19 ___ (71) __ (65) ____ not records in 1989 (1881, 1946 _70F, 1924 _55F) Oct 18 ___ (50) __ (44) ____ not records in 1989 (1909 _48F, later 2009 _45F; 1929,39,74 _35F) Dec 14 ___ (31) __ (14) ____ not records in 1989 (1902 _21F, 1976 _12F) Dec 22 ___ 18 ___ ( 8.) _____1921 _ 20F ______ eventual record low maximum ________ 1.0, 1.0 Dec 27 ___ (21) __ ( 8.) ____ not records in 1989 (1872 _15F, 6F) 1990 _ This year had long stretches of warm to very warm temperatures but occasionally turned quite cold. Mid-July had a very cool interval. There were 2.0 record low maxima, and 1.5 record low minima during the year, and a few "near misses" also. In addition, there were five "coldest since" record low minima with the count 4.33. Details follow: Coldest since _____ 1990 value __ tied by ___ count May 22, 1907 (42F) _____ 44 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 June 5, 1945 (47F) ______ 50 ______ -- -- ______ 2.0 July 12, 1926 (57F) ______ 58 ___ 1945, 73 ___ 2.33 July 13, 1888 (54F) ______ 57 ______ -- -- ______ 3.33 Sept 17, 1986 (45F) _____ 49 ______ -- -- ______ 4.33 (records in 1990 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Feb 26 ___ (25) ___ 7_______ tied 1928 _7F ___eventual record low minimum (t1928) ____ ____ __ 0.5, 0.5 May 21 ___(51) __ (47) _____ not records in 1990 (1892, 1924,29 _50F; 1907 _40F) May 22 ___(65) __ (44) _____ not records in 1990 (1894 _54F, 1907 _42F) July 12 ____67 __ (58)*______1940 _ 69F ______eventual record low maximum _______ 1.0, 1.0 July 13 ___(70) __ (57) _____ not records in 1990 (1964 _67F, 1888 _54F) July 14 ___ (74) __(64) _____ not records in 1990 (1884, 1960, 1963, 2017 _73F; 1877,1888,1926 _58F) Aug 20 ___ 68 __ (59) ______1893,1900,48_70F _eventual record low maximum _____ 2.0, 2.0 Sep 18 ___(67) __ 44 ______ 1937 _45F ________eventual record low minimum _____ ____ ____ __ 1.5, 1.5 ___________________ * min 58F on July 12 within 1F of record 57F (1926) Summary of records set in the decade 1981-1990 The pace of records picked up slightly from the previous decade, with a total of 16.33 record low maxima of which 16.0 have survived. At random these numbers would be 31 and 24. There was also a healthy crop of "near miss" 1 or 2 F short of being record tying temperatures. These would probably all have qualified in the absence of the large urban heat island effect. The count of record low minima was similar (and lower than the previous decade), with 17.17 records yielding 14.83 eventual surviving records. There were 40.67 "coldest since" record low minima bringing the total recorded to 275.42. That would be out of 348 records now set. That includes 343 fully set, 8 with further ties to come, so the ratio for "coldest since" is actually 275.42 out of 343 possible; almost one quarter of the "coldest since" values are yet to be recorded as of 1990, with only 23 of them due to the record not being yet fully established. The dates for which records in 1990 would later be broken (or tied*) are as follows: Jan 7th, 16th*, 19th, 20th, Feb 14th and 20th, March 3rd* 9th and 15th, Apr 10th*, May 8th, 9th and 22nd*, June 28th*, July 2nd*, Aug 7th, Sep 20th, Oct 7th* Nov 8th* and Nov 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th, with December fully set including ties. __ Log of records for 1991-2000 __ 1991 _ This is the first year in the data set which failed to set a cold record of either type. It would later be joined by 1998, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2018. It was also the fifth year (following 1906, 1908, 1941, 1944) not to have surviving records (and would be joined by this same list to make the total eleven). The closest approach for low maxima was 3F on July 29th (72F) and Nov 10th (41F). The maximum of 68F on July 5th would have been a record on July 1st or 7th and was perhaps closer in that sense (although 6F short of the daily record). The closest approach for low minima was 2F on Sep 2nd (53F). That was tied for being coldest since 1892 (52F) became "coldest since" the record low of 51F set in 1886. Also, 1991 had no "coldest since" record low minima. Of the later years that would join it as being record-free, only 1998 and 2010 were also shut out of that type of near-record. A second close call for "coldest since" was on Sep 28th (45F) which came close to the 43F in 1957 which was coldest after the 1947 record of 41F. No tables are required for 1991. The max on Sep 2nd (with the 2F near miss low) was 74 (the record was 62F in 1869). 1992 _ Much of the year was rather close to average for temperatures, but the summer was chilly and was regarded as "the year without a summer" in some parts of eastern North America (not quite as cold as the historical analogue of 1816 however). This cool tendency was blamed on the late 1991 volcanic eruption of Pinatubo. Cool weather set in during late May and relented its grip rather gradually through the autumn months. The entire collection of records for 1992 comes from the summer, with 2.25 record low maxima (2.20 survive as the tied record was further tied in 1996 -- this is the last instance of a later tied low maximum, 1999 provides the last instance of a later broken low maximum record). There was also one near miss of 1F a day after one of these records. The day following those was also cool at 68F within 3F of the 1909 record for Aug 17th. There were no record low minima in 1992. The closest approach was within 1F on June 22nd, July 23rd and Nov 8th. In addition, there were eight "coldest since" record low minima, with a count of 6.0. Only 2000 and 2018 would have higher counts after 1992. coldest since _____ 1992 value __ tied by ___ count May 24, 1963 (39F) ____ 45 ______ 1967 ______ 0.5 May 28 1907,61 (43F) __ 47 ______ 1994 ______ 1.0 June 22 1897,1940 (52F)_ 53 ______ -- -- _______ 2.0 June 23, 1918 (49F)_____ 52 ______ -- -- _______ 3.0 July 4, 1986 (55F) _______60 ______ 2021 _____ 3.5 July 23, 1871,90 (58F) __ 59 ______ 1939 _____ 4.0 Oct 1, 1947 (36F) _______ 39 ______ -- -- ______ 5.0 Oct 20, 1974 (31F) ______ 34 ______ -- -- ______ 6.0 (records in 1992 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) June 22 __(65) __ (53) ____ not records in 1992 (1928 & 52 _ 62F, 1897 & 1940 _52F) July 17 ____72 __ (67) _____1873,1949, 62_74F __eventual record low maximum ___ 1.0, 1.0 July 23 ___ 70 __ (59)*____t1894,1909,1969__eventual record low maximum (t1894,1909,1969,1996) _ 1.25, 1.2 Aug 15 ___ 66 __ (61) _____1887, 1930 _68F ___ eventual record low maximum ___ 2.25, 2.2 Aug 16 ___ (66) __(60) ____ not records in 1992 (1893 _65F, 1880 _55F) Aug 17 ___ (68) __(65) ____ not records in 1992 (1909 _65F, 1881 & 1979 _56F) Nov 8 _____(43) __(30) ____ not records in 1992 (1886 _38F, 1886 & 2019 _29F) _ Nov 9 max 42F _______________________________ * Min of 59F on July 23rd within 1F of record low min 58F (1871, 1890). 1993 _ A generally rather warm year, February and March had cold spells with an inland blizzard around March 12-13 drawing in some record cold air. Mid-October and late December were also rather cold. There were no record low maxima, the closest approach being 2F degrees on July 2nd as shown in the tables. There were two record low minima. (count 2.0). In addition there were four "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 3.25. Details follow: coldest since _____ 1993 value __ tied by ___ count Feb 7, 1910 (1F) ______ 7 _______ -- -- _______ 1.0 Mar 19, 1967 (8F) ____15 _______ -- -- _______ 2.0 Oct 14, 1988 (37F) ___38 _______ -- -- _______ 3.0 Nov 26, 1880, 1938 (16F) _ 25 __ 1940,49,78 _ 3.25 (records in 1993 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Mar 15___ (33) __ 14 ____1887, 1916 _15F ___ eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ _ 1.0, 1.0 July 2 ____ (69) __ (65) ___ not records in 1993 (1891 _67F, 1888 & 2001 _56F) Sep 20___ (64) __ 44 ____1871,1920,56,79_45F _ eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ _ 2.0, 2.0 Oct 14 ___(54) __ (38) ___ not records in 1993 (1889 _45F, 1988 _37F) Dec 27 __ (20) __ (10) ___ not records in 1993 (1872 _15F, 6F) 1994 _ The year began with a very cold month followed by a gradual return to more normal temperatures through the late winter and spring. The counts were 2.0 for low maxima and 3.0 for low minima. Jan 19-20 supplied two of each and a third record low was added in August. In addition there were five days with "coldest since" record low minima, for a count of 3.83. coldest since _____ 1994 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 27, 1927 (-1F) _____ 0 _______ -- -- _______ 1.0 Feb 26, 1928,90 (7F) __ 15 _______ -- -- _______ 2.0 May 28, 1907,61 (43F) _47 _______1992 ______2.5 Aug 6, 1869 (56F) ____ 57 ______1934, 57 ___ 2.83 Aug 29,1965,82,86 (50F) _ 58 _____ -- -- ______ 3.83 (records in 1994 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 16 ____(15) __( 3) _____ not records in 1994 (1920 _14F, 1893 & 2004 _1F ) Jan 19 ____ 10 __ -2 ______1904 _14F; 1875 _-1F _ eventual record low max & min __ 1.0, 1.0 __ 1.0, 1.0 Jan 20 ____ 15 __ 0 ______ 1875,1961 _19F ______eventual record low maximum __ 2.0, 2.0 _Jan 20 __ (min) _ 0 ______ 1985 _4F ____________eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ __ 3.0, 3.0 Jan 27 ___ (31) __( 0) _____ not records in 1994 (1888 _14F, 1927 _-1F) May 20 __ (61) __(45) ____ not records in 1994 (1957 & 2000 _51F, 1907 & 2002 _43F) Aug 6 ____ (75) __(57) ____ not records in 1994 (1915 _64F, 1869 _56F) Aug 7 ____ (81) __ 57 _____1869 _58F ___________eventual record low minimum ___ ____ ____ __ 3.0, 3.0 1995 _ A generally warm year, 1995 had no record low maxima, and the closest approach was only four degrees (41F on Nov 9th and 24F on Dec 11th). There was one tied record low minimum for a count of only 0.25. The second coldest reading by differentials was 23F on April 5th, three degrees above the 1874 record (1881 took the "coldest since" for that record at 21F. There were two "coldest since" record low minima, with the count 2.0. coldest since _____ 1995 value __ tied by ___ count Apr 6, 1982 (21F) ______ 28 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 Dec 12, 1988 (5F) ______ 16 ______ -- -- ______ 2.0 (records in 1995 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) June 28____(74) __ 54 _____t1888,93,1915 _54F ___eventual record low minimum (t1888,93,1915) ____ ____ __ 0.25, 0.25 1996 _ The year was quite variable in temperature with some large swings during each season. The count of record low maxima was 1.2 (March 9th and a tied mark on July 23rd), but there were quite a few more near misses. The count for low minima was 1.0 (also March 9th) but the second closest call was 3F above a record on several occasions. In addition there were three "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 1.83. A coldest since (8F) shared with 1955 was removed on Feb 4, 2023 by a colder reading in 2023 (3F) after the record low (0F) set in 1886 and 1918. coldest since _____ 1996 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 6, 1896 (-2F) ______ 6 _____ 1912, 2018 ___ 0.33 Feb 5, 1918 (-6F) ______ 5 ________ -- -- _______ 1.33 Nov 15, 1967 (20F) ___ 28 _______ 2018 ______ 2.83 (records in 1996 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Mar 8 ___(24) __(14) _____not records in 1996 (1883 _23F, 8F) Mar 9 ____24 __ 11 ______1932 _ 28F, 1883 _14F __ eventual record low max & min _ 1.0, 1.0 __ 1.0, 1.0 Apr 9 ____(40) __(33) ____ not records in 1996 (1885, 1982, 2003 _39F; 1977 _25F) May 16 __(54) __ (50) ____ not records in 1996 (1888 _52F, 1878 _42F ) _ min 14th 43F June 30 __(67) __ (61) ____ not records in 1996 (1967 _65F, 1919 _53F) July 23 ___ 70 __ (64) _____t1894,1909,69,92 __ eventual record low maximum (t1894,1909,1969,1992)_1.2, 1.2 Aug 13 ___(69) __ (61) ____ not records in 1996 (1873 & 1934 _68F; 1930 _55F) Oct 4 _____(53) __ (40) ____ not records in 1996 (1883 _51F, 1888 _37F) 1997 __ A rather warm year in general, 1997 had no record low maxima. The closest approach was 1F on July 24th (68F). A second near miss by 2F occurred on Aug 20th (70F). There was one tied record low minimum for a count of 0.33. There were six "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 3.83. coldest since _____ 1997 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 19, 1994 (-2F) _____ 4 ________ -- -- _______ 1.0 Apr 9, 1977 (25F) _____ 30 _______ 2000 ______1.5 July 24, 1893 (56F) ____58 _______ 2007 ______ 2.0 July 25, 1953 (57F) ____59 _______ 1974 ______ 2.5 Sep 4, 1872,83 (47F) __ 52 ______ -- -- ________ 3.5 Oct 23, 1969 (32F) ____ 37 ____ 1980, 2003 __ 3.83 (records in 1997 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Apr 10 ___(42) __ 27 _____t1974,85 _27F ____ eventual record low minimum (t1974,85) ____ __ 0.33, 0.33 Jul 24 ____ (68) __(58) _____not records in 1997 (1903 _67F, 1893 _56F) Jul 25 ____ (79) __(59) _____not records in 1997 (1871 & 1902 _69F, later 2013 _68F, 1953 _57F) Aug 20 ___(70) __(60) _____not records in 1997 (1990 _68F, 1949 _55F) 1998 _ It was a very warm year on average although the summer was closer to normal and sometimes rather chilly. This year joined 1991 as the only two so far with no record low maxima or minima, and also had no "coldest since" record lows. The closest approach to a record low maximum was on July 8th when a high of 69F was 2F above the 1894 record. This changed to 3F when 2005 was colder at 66F. That was equalled on June 12th (65F, 1924 record 62F) and Aug 19th (73F, record 70F from 1881 and 1946). March 11th and 12th were 4F and 5F above daily record low maxima. For the minima, the closest approach was 3F on Aug 20th (58F, record was 55F in 1949). No table is required for 1998; the minimum on July 8th was 64F (56F the record also in 1894, 2005 recorded 62F). There were several quite cool nights in early June in the range of 5 to 7 deg above previous record lows. Every minimum June 2nd to 10th was in the mid-50s. (F) (table would read July 8 __ (69) _ (64) ____ not records in 1998 (1894 _67F, later 2005 _66F; 1894 _56F)) 1999 _ This was another quite warm year. It has the last instance of a low maximum record that would later be broken (64F, Aug 21, 2007 replaced with 59F). This large shift means that now, three other days share the smallest departures from record low maxima (3F): July 14th (76F, record 73F), Sep 22nd (58F) and Oct 5th (53F). October 7th gave 1999 a count of 0.5 for a tied minimum (39F). Otherwise the closest approach to a record low minimum was within 4F (July 11th, 61F). There were no "coldest since" record low minima in 1999, the first time that two consecutive years failed to produce one (as of end of data) since 1907-09 were all shut out (1907 mainly because it was so cold that it set numerous records rather than going coldest since). There have not been two more consecutive years without coldest since (as seen from 2022). 2010 and 2012 are the only other years yet to come that will not record any. A minimum of 9F on Jan 2nd was within 2F of the coldest since value (7F in 1922) for the daily record of 2F (1918). (no "coldest since" record low minima) ... (records in 1999 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Aug 21___ 64*__ (59) _____1956_65F _______ 2007 _59F (* last record broken in series) ___ 1.0, 0.0 Oct 7 _____(53) __ 39 _____tied 1954 _39F __ eventual record low minimum (t1954)____ ____ __ 0.5, 0.5 2000 _ Some parts of the year were quite cool relative to normal values, in particular the summer and autumn. This allowed the production of 3.5 record low maxima, a value not repeated in any later year (from now on, no new records set have yet been broken, so that survival rates are always 100% for those years that have any records). In addition there were a number of near-misses as shown in the table of records. For record low minima, the year produced none but it did have five days within 1F which were Apr 27th, Sep 5th, Sep 29th, Oct 9th and 10th, for which further details appear in the table. In addition, nine "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 6.833 make 2000 the most productive year since the record holders 1967 and 1976, later to be equalled by 2018 (with eight days, same count). Details for 2000 follow: coldest since _____ 1997 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 18, 1982 (0F) ________ 3 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 Apr 9, 1977 (25F) _______ 30 _____ 1997 _____ 1.5 Apr 27, 1932 (36F) ______37 ___ 1933, 1967 __1.83 June 6, 1945 (47F) ______50 _______ -- -- ______ 2.83 July 8, 1894 (56F) _______58 ______ 2009 _____ 3.33 Sep 5, 1963 (51F) _______ 52 ______ -- -- _______ 4.33 Sep 29, 1888,1914,42 (42F)_ 43 ______ -- -- _______ 5.33 Oct 9, 1888, 1988 (37F) _ 38 ______ -- -- _______ 6.33 Oct 10, 1888 (35F) ______ 36 ______1925 ______6.83 (records in 2000 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Apr 27 ___(52) __(37) ____ not records in 2000 (1874 _42F, 1932 _36F) May 20 ___ 51 __ (46) ____ tied 1957 _51F____eventual record low maximum (t1957) _ 0.5, 0.5 June 7 ____(73) __(49) ____ not records in 2000 (1891 & 1905 _61F, 1879 _47F) _ max 6th was 60F June 14 ___(61) __(53) ____ not records in 2000 (1907 _59F, 1875 _49F) July 8 _____(79) __(58) ____ not records in 2000 (1897 _67F, later 2005 _66F, 1894 _56F) July 19 ____ 69 __ (61) _____1873 _70F _______ eventual record low maximum __________ 1.5, 1.5 July 26 ____ 71 __ (63)______tied 1901 _71F __ eventual record low maximum (t1901) _ 2.0, 2.0 July 27 ____ 68 __ (65) _____ tied 1897 _68F ___eventual record low maximum (t1897) _ 2.5, 2.5 Aug 14 ___ (68) __(64) ____ not records in 2000 (1873 & 1919 _66F, 1964 _54F) Sep 5 _____(67) __(52) ____ not records in 2000 (1926 _62F, 1963 _51F) Sep 26 ____54 __ (50) _____ 1887 _56F ________ eventual record low maximum __________3.5, 3.5 Sep 29 ____(59) __(43) ____ not records in 2000 (1888 _53F ; 1888, 1914, 1942 _42F) Oct 9 _____(50) __(38) ____ not records in 2000 (1888 _43F, 1888 & 1988 _37F) Oct 10 ____(50) __(36) ____ not records in 2000 (1925 _43F, 1888 _35F) Summary of records set in the decade 1991-2000 The pace of records begins to fade with two years out of these ten failing to produce any records at all. From 9.95 record low maxima, 8.9 have survived. One (in 1999) was broken in 2007, and another tied record received one more later tie (out of five), which is the full loss of 1.05 records (and the last of these, the next two decades will retain all their records). At random these numbers would be 29 and 24. There was, however, a significant number (13) "near miss" 1 or 2 F short of being record tying temperatures. Most would probably have qualified in the absence of the large urban heat island effect. They bring the production up to about random expectation so that we could hypothesize that most of the absence of record low maxima in the decade was caused by the urban heat island. However, 1994, 1996 and 2000 were more prolific than most other years. The count of record low minima was even weaker at 7.08 (all have survived, 1986 being the last instance of a non-surviving share of a record low minimum). Add to those 17 more near miss situations (within 1 or 2 F) and the total begins to look more similar to random expectation; however, 2000 provided almost half of those extra cases. There were 28.08 "coldest since" record low minima bringing the total recorded to 303.5. That would be out of 355 records now set. That includes 352 fully set, five with further ties to come, so the ratio for "coldest since" is actually 303.5 out of 352 possible; almost one sixth of the "coldest since" values are yet to be recorded as of 2000, with only 14/60 of them due to the record not being yet fully established. The dates for which records in 2000 would later be broken (or tied*) are as follows: Jan 7th, 16th*, Feb 14th and 20th, March 3rd* May 8th, 9th and 22nd*, July 2nd*, Nov 8th* and Nov 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th, with December fully set including ties. __ Log of records for 2001-2010 __ 2001 _ This was quite a warm year generally speaking, and had only a few brief cool spells. There were no record low maxima, the closest approach being 2F with 37F on March 26th. The second closest was 3F on Sep 30th (55F). There was one tied record low minimum, 56F on July 2nd, and a near miss of 2F on October 8th (39F). In addition, four "coldest since" record low minima gave a count of 2.5 for the year. Details follow: coldest since _____ 2001 value __ tied by ___ count July 3, 1933 (54F) _____ 58 _______ 1940 _____ 0.5 July 6, 1979 (54F) _____ 61 _______ 2006 _____ 1.0 Oct 7, 1954,99 (39F) __ 44 _______ 2008 _____ 1.5 Oct 8, 1988 (37F) _____ 39 _______ -- -- _______ 2.5 (records in 2001 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Mar 26 __(37) __(27) _____ not records in 2001 (1872,1937,1947 _35F; 1960 _20F) _ min 24F on 27th July 2 ___ (73) __ 56 ______ tied 1888 _56F ____ eventual record low minimum (t1888) __ ____ ____ _ 0.5, 0.5 Sep 30 __(55) __(50) _____ not records in 2001 (1888 _52F, 1912 _39F) Oct 8 ___ (53) __(39) _____ not records in 2001 (1988 _45F, 37F) 2002 _ Although a rather warm year, 2002 had a few cold spells, most notably mid-May. That produced the closest approach to a low maximum record on May 18th (2F), a similar close approach to a record low minimum also on the 18th, and one tied record low minimum (43F on May 20th, tied 1907), with another near miss of 2F on the 21st for the minimum. Mid-June had some cool days (63F) within 3-4 F of records, and July 26th (71F) was also within 2F of the low maximum just tied the previous year. Aug 29th (65F) was also within 2F of the record low maximum. Oct 29 to Nov 2 was also rather chilly. After the tied record low minimum and adjacent 2F close approaches, the next closest approach was 3F on May 19th, which was one of four "coldest since" record low minima in 2002, for a count of 2.833. Details follow: coldest since _____ 2002 value __ tied by ___ count Apr 7, 1982 (21F) _____ 30 _______ 2003 ______ 0.5 May 19, 1976 (38F) ___ 41 _______ -- -- ________ 1.5 May 21, 1907 (40F) ___ 42 _______ -- -- ________ 2.5 Oct 24, 1969 (31F) ____ 36 ___ 1978, 2003 ____2.83 (records in 2002 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 18 ___(55) __(43) ____ not records in 2002 (1881 _53F, 1973 _41F ) May 20 ___(58) __ 43 _____tied 1907 _43F ____ eventual record low minimum (t1907) __ ____ ____ _ 0.5, 0.5 July 26 ___ (71) __ (64) ____ not records in 2002 (1901 & 2000 _69F, 1920 _55F) Aug 29 ___ (65) __ (60) ____ not records in 2002 (1903 _63F, 1965, 82, 86 _50F) 2003 _ The winter turned quite cold with numerous near-record lows mid-February to mid-March as shown. It stayed cold into April with two more tied record low maxima added (37F Apr 8th, 39F Apr 9th), and later June 21st tied a record set in 1958 (63F), giving a count for the year of 1.17. In that same interval a sixth share of the March 3rd tied record low minimum completed that record (count 0.167). May 22-23 saw a return to cold with two near records. Sep 2 was also nearly record cold. Other portions of the year were closer to long term averages but it was seldom warmer than normal by any large amount. In addition, there were six "coldest since" record low minima, but the count was only 2.417. coldest since _____ 2003 value __ tied by ___ count Apr 7, 1982 (21F) _____ 30 _______ 2002 ______ 0.5 June 2nd* (sev'l_48F) __ 50 _______ 2015 ______ 1.0 June 17, 1926 (51F) ____53 ____ 1959, 64, 65 __1.25 Oct 3, 1888,99,1974 (38F) _ 41 _____ 1975 _____ 1.75 Oct 23, 1969 (32F) _____ 37 _____ 1980, 1997 _ 2.08 Oct 24, 1969 (31F) _____ 34 _____ 1978, 2002 _ 2.417 * June 2nd record shared by 1880, 1907, 1929, 1945, and 1946. (records in 2003 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Feb 16 ___(15) __( 8.) ____ not records in 2003 (1904 _11F, 1888 _1F) Feb 26 ___(22) __(16) ____ not records in 2003 (1900 _19F, Mar 3 ____(39) __ 11 ______t1925,38,43,50,62 ___ eventual record low minimum ** ___ ____ ____ __ 0.17, 0.17 Mar 10 __ (29) __ (19) ____ not records in 2003 (1987 _28F, 1929 _12F) Apr 8_____ 37 __ (31) _____ t1916,56 _40F ____ eventual record low maximum (t1916,2003) _0.33, 0.33 Apr 9 ____ 39 __ (35) _____ t1885,1982 _39F __ eventual record low maximum (t1885, 1982) _0.67, 0.67 May 23 __ (56) __(50) _____ not records in 2003 (1894 _54F, 1963 _43F) May 24 __ (56) __(51) _____ not records in 2003 (1982 _55F, 1963 _39F) June 2 ____(72) __(50) _____ not records in 2003 (1907 & 1946 _52F ; 1880,1907,29,45,46 _ 48F) _ max 1st 65F June 4 ____(57) __(50) _____ not records in 2003 (1945 _52F, 1926 _48F) June 17 __ (67) __(53) _____ not records in 2003 (1959 _61F, 1926 _51F) June 21 __ 63 __ (59) _____ tied 1958 _63F ____ eventual record low maximum (t1958) __ 1.17, 1.17 Sep 2 ____ (63) __(59) _____ not records in 2003 (1869 _62F, 1886 _51F) ___________________________________________ ** this now completed, six-way tie 1925, 1938, 1943, 1950, 1962, 2003 (11F) 2004 _ January was cold and set a few records or near misses. Much of the rest of the year was warmer than average and cold days were infrequent. The counts for record low maxima (0.33) and minima (0.5) are joined by just a few near misses. There were also three "coldest since" record low minima (count also 3.0). Details follow: coldest since _____ 2004 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 10, 1875 (-3F) ______ 1 _______ -- -- ______ 1.0 Jan 15, 1957 (0F) _______ 2 _______ -- -- ______ 2.0 Aug 7, 1994 (57F) _____ 59 _______ -- -- ______ 3.0 (records in 2004 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 10 ____(15) __( 1) ____ not records in 2004 (1875 _13F, -3F) Jan 14 ____ 17 __ ( 9) _____t1893, 1988 _17F ___eventual record low maximum (t1893, 1988) _ 0.33, 0.33 Jan 15 ____(18) __( 2) ____ not records in 2004 (1957 _12F, 0F) Jan 16 ____(24) ___ 1 ______tied 1893 _1F _____ eventual record low minimum (t1893) ___ ____ ____ _ 0.5, 0.5 July 13 ___ (69) __(63) ____ not records in 2004 (1964 _67F, 1888 _54F) Aug 7 ____ (70) __(59) ____ not records in 2004 (1975 _64F, 1994 _57F) Nov 10 ___(44) __(29) ____ not records in 2004 (1873 _38F, 1914 _27F, later 2017 _25F) 2005 _ January was quite cold but did not quite get into record range. Much of the year was very warm, with brief cold spells. One record low maximum was set on July 8th (66F), for a count of 1.0, and low minima came within 2F on Dec 14th. There were three "coldest since" record low minima with a count of 2.0. Details follow: coldest since _____ 2005 value __ tied by ___ count May 20, 1907,2002 (43F) _ 48 ____ 2008 _____ 0.5 Nov 25, 1938 (19F) ______ 22 _____ -- -- _____ 1.5 Dec 14, 1976 (12F) ______ 14 ____ 1989 _____ 2.0 (records in 2005 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) July 7 ____(73) __(65) ____ not records in 2005 (1914,43,87 _73F, 1914 _56F) July 8 ____ 66 __ (62) ____ 1894 _67F ___________ eventual record low maximum ___ 1.0, 1.0 Dec 14 __ (24) __(14) ____ not records in 2005 (1902 _21F, 1976 _12F) 2006 _ This was often quite a warm year and it became the third year (after 1991 and 1998) without record low temperatures; however, there were two "coldest since" a record low with a count of 1.5. Both followed record lows set last in 1979. The closest approaches to record low maxima were 4F on June 7th (65F) and Sep 2nd (66F). The closest approach to a record low minimum was 2F on May 23rd (45F). Details follow: coldest since _____ 2006 value __ tied by ___ count Feb 18, 1979 (0F) _____ 15 ______ -- -- _______1.0 July 6, 1979 (54F) _____ 61 ______ 2001 _____ 1.5 (records in 2006 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 23 ___(68) __(45) ____ not records in 2006 (1982 _55F, 1963 _43F) 2007 _ This was frequently a rather cool year with a four-day remarkable cool interval from Aug 19th to 22nd during which a monthly record low maximum (59F) was set. The count for record low maxima was 2.0. There were quite a few near misses as well. A four-day cold snap March 6-9 was notably cold for the christmas pudding. The closest approach to a record low minimum was 1F on July 2nd (57F) and Aug 11th (57F). In addition there were six "coldest since" record low minima with a count of 4.5. Details follow: coldest since _____ 2007 value __ tied by ___ count Mar 7, 1890 (7F) ______ 12 _______ 1913 ______ 0.5 Mar 9, 1996 (11F) _____ 13 _______ -- -- _______ 1.5 Apr 8, 1982 (25F) ______30 _______ -- -- _______ 2.5 July 2, 1888,2001 (56F) _57 ______ -- -- _______ 3.5 July 24, 1893 (56F) ____ 58 ______ 1997 ______ 4.0 Aug 11, 1962 (56F) ____ 57 ______ 1972 ______ 4.5 (records in 2007 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Mar 6 ___ (21) __(11) _____not records in 2007 (1901 _17F, 1872 _5F) Mar 7 ___ (23) __(12) _____not records in 2007 (1913 _20F, 1890 _7F) Mar 9 ___ (35) __(13) _____not records in 2007 (1996 _24F, 12F) May 18 __(54) __(48) _____not records in 2007 (1881 _53F, 1973 _41F) July 2 ____(74) __(57) _____not records in 2007 (1891 _67F, 1888 & 2001 _56F) July 23 ___(72) __(60) _____not records in 2007 (1894,1909,69,92,96 _70F, 1871 & 1890 _58F) July 24 ___(81) __(58) _____not records in 2007 (1904 _67F, 1893 _56F) Aug 10 ___(72) __(57) _____not records in 2007 (1962 _60F, 1879 _55F) Aug 11 ___(81) __(57) _____not records in 2007 (1931,33,62 _68F, 1962 _56F) Aug 19 __ (71) __(60) _____not records in 2007 (1881 & 1946 _70F, 1924 _55F) Aug 20 __ (69) __(58) _____not records in 2007 (1990 _68F, 1949 _55F) Aug 21 ___ 59 __ (56) _____1999_64F _______ eventual record low maximum ____ 1.0, 1.0 Aug 22 ___ 65 __ (56) ____ 1965 _68F _______ eventual record low maximum ____ 2.0, 2.0 2008 _ Although not a remarkably warm year, 2008 became the fourth in the series to produce no record low maxima or minima (following 1991, 1998, and 2006). The closest approach to a record low maximum was 3F on Oct 29th (46F). The closest approach to record low minima was also 3F but was shared by two days, Aug 11th (59F) and Aug 20th (58F). From three "coldest since" record low minima, the count was 2.0. coldest since _____ 2008 value __ tied by ___ count May 20, 1907,2002 (43F) __ 48 _____ 2005 _____ 0.5 Aug 9, 1919, 89 (57F) _____63 _____ -- -- _______ 1.5 Oct 7, 1954, 99 (37F) _____ 44 _____ 2001 _____ 2.0 (closest approach to records in 2008 ... all in italics missed by 3F) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Aug 11 ___(73) __ (59) ____ not records in 2008 (1931,33,62 _68F, 1962 _56F) Aug 20 ___(78) __ (58) ____ not records in 2008 (1990 _68F, 1949 _55F) Oct 29 ___(46) __ (38) ____ not records in 2008 (1909,25,52 _43F, 1925 _31F) 2009 _ It was occasionally rather cold in the winter and spring, and cool through the summer, with a more significant cold spell in mid-October. There were three days with record low maxima (count 1.67 due to two being third ties); two were in the interval of Oct 15th-18th which also had two near misses of 1F. There were no record low minima, the closest approach was 1F on March 3rd (12F). From four "coldest since" record low minima, the count is 3.5. coldest since _____ 2009 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 16, 1893, 2004 (1F) __ 9 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 Mar 3, sev'l* (11F) ______12 ______ -- -- ______ 2.0 _ * see note with records July 5, 1979 (53F) ______ 61 ______ -- -- ______ 3.0 July 8, 1894 (56F) ______ 58 ______ 2000 _____3.5 (records in 2009 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 16 ___ (16) __( 9) ____ not records in 2009 (1920 _14F, 1893 & 2004 _1F) Mar 3 ____ 26 __ (12)*____ t1943,50 _26F ____ eventual record low maximum (t1943,50) _ 0.33, 0.33 June 18 __(64) __(60) ____ not records in 2009 (1920 _63F, 1950 _48F) July 8 ____(77) __ (58) ____ not records in 2009 (2005 _66F, 1894 _56F) Oct 15 ___(47) __(37) ____ not records in 2009 (1876 _46F, 32F) Oct 16 ___ 46 __ (37) _____1886,93 _47F ______ eventual record low maximum ________0.67, 0.67 Oct 17 ___(48) __(42) ____ not records in 2009 (1970 _47F, 1886 _33F) Oct 18 ___ 45 __ (41) _____ 1909 _48F _________ eventual record low maximum ________1.67, 1.67 ____________________________ * min 12F on Mar 3rd was within 1F of tied record low 11F (1925,38,43,50,62,2003). 2010 _ Temperatures were often well above normal values. Parts of late January and mid-May, mid-December were cold but there were no record low maxima or minima for the fifth time (1991, 1998, 2006, 2008). The closest approach for low maxima was 1F on May 12th (48F) with Dec 14th (23F) within 2F. The closest approach to a record low minimum was 4F degrees, also on May 12th, as well as May 13th. 2010 was also the third year (1991, 1998) with both no record lows and no "coldest since" record low minima. (near records in 2010 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 12 ___ (48) __(44) ____ not records in 2010 (1882 _47F, 1874 & 1907 _40F) Dec 14 ____(23) __(19) ____ not records in 2010 (1902 _21F, 1976 _12F) Summary of records set in the decade 2001-2010 The pace of records stayed low, comparable to the previous decade, in this generally warm decade. There were 6.83 record low maxima, all have survived. At random these numbers would be 27 and 24. There was, however, a significant number (19) "near miss" 1 or 2 F short of being record tying temperatures. Most would probably have qualified in the absence of the large urban heat island effect. They once again bring the production up to about random expectation so that we could continue to hypothesize that most of the absence of record low maxima in the decade was caused by the urban heat island. Several years were however quite weak producers of cold weather even with that advantage added. The count of record low minima was much weaker at 1.67 (all have survived) and there were none after 2004 (an absence which would last until January, 2014). However, if we add to those 15 more near miss situations (within 1 or 2 F) the total begins to look somewhat closer to random expectation; it could be stated that a 3F advantage is needed to restore the count of near-record low minima to the long-term average. There were 24.25 "coldest since" record low minima bringing the total recorded to 327.75. That would be out of 355.5 records now set. That includes 355 fully set, one with a tie to come (Nov 8), so the ratio for "coldest since" is actually 327.75 out of 355 possible; almost one tenth of the "coldest since" values are yet to be recorded as of 2000, with 11 of 36 of them due to the record not being yet fully established. The dates for which records in 2010 would later be broken (or tied*) are as follows: Jan 7th, Feb 14th and 20th, May 8th, 9th, Nov 8th* and Nov 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th, with December fully set including ties. 2011 _ This was often a very warm year. For the second consecutive year, there were no record low maxima or minima. This was the sixth such year (1991, 1998, 2006, 2008, 2010 also had no records). Unlike some, 2011 did have one "coldest since" a daily record low. The closest approach to any record low maximum was 2F on Oct 29th (45F), the occasion of the "Hallowe'en snowstorm" that set a one-day snowfall record for October at NYC. The closest approach to any record low minimum was also 2F on the same date (33F) and the following (Oct 30th, also 33F). The one "coldest since" was the 28th of October, details below: coldest since _____ 2011 value __ tied by ___ count Oct 28, 1976 (29F) _____ 36 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 (Oct 29 and 30 were both prevented from "coldest since" status by days with 32F minima, 1933,1965 on 29th, and 1928 on 30th) (near records in 2011 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Oct 29 ___ (45) __ (33) ____ not records in 2011 (1909,25,52 _43F, 1925 _31F) Oct 30 ___ (46) __ (33) ____ not records in 2011 (1925 _38F, 31F) 2012 _ This year continued mostly very warm (March in particular) but there were relatively colder days in the summer and autumn at times. There was only one record maximum, a fourth tie for Nov 7th (41F) so the count is 0.25. Nov 6th and 8th were also quite cold as shown. There were no record low minima and the closest approach was 2F on June 26th (58F) and again on Nov 7th (31F). coldest since _____ 2012 value __ tied by ___ count (records in 2012 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) June 26 __(72) __(58) _____ not records in 2012 (1893 _63F ; 1893,1974,1979 _58F) July 20 __ (72) __(61) _____ not records in 2012 (1869 _69F, 1890, 61F) Nov 6 ___ (42) __(31) _____ not records in 2012 (1878 & 1953 _38F, 1879 _27F) Nov 7 ___ 41 __ (31)*_____t1886,1903,27,2012 __ eventual record low maximum (t1886,1903,1927) _ 0.25, 0.25 Nov 8 ___ (48) __(32) _____ not records in 2012 (1886 _38F, 1886 & 2019 _29F) ______________________ * Min Nov 7th (31F) was within 2F of record 29F set in 1930. 2013 _ This was a generally rather warm year with only brief cold spells. There were two days with record low maxima, July 25th (68F), and Nov 24th (30F tied 1880), the count was 1.5. There was also one near miss by 2F on June 7th. If that had been a record it would have brought the count to 2.5 which is the random expectation at this late stage (2.4 is where it finishes by 2022). There were no record low minima and the closest approach was 2F on May 14th (42F). That was one of three "coldest since" record low minima and the count for those was 2.5. coldest since _____ 2013 value __ tied by ___ count May 14, 1878 (40F) ____ 42 ______ 1920 _____ 0.5 Aug 15, 1964 (54F) ____ 59 _______ -- -- ______ 1.5 Sep 18, 1990 (44F) ____ 51 _______ -- -- ______ 2.5 (records in 2013 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 14 __ (61) __ (42) ____ not records in 2013 (1882 _50F, 1878 _40F) June 7 ____(63) __(59) ____ not records in 2013 (1891 & 1905 _61F, 1879 _47F) July 25 ____68 __ (64) _____1871, 1902 _69F ___ eventual record low maximum ____ 1.0, 1.0 Nov 24____30 __ (23) _____ tied 1880_30F ____ eventual record low maximum (t1880) _ 1.5, 1.5 2014 _ This year brought the first of the two consecutive "polar vortex" years to the region, and temperatures stayed relatively low Jan to Mar, then mostly moderately warm at times for the rest of the year. Despite the first quarter chill, there were no record low maxima, the closest approach being 1F on Mar 26th (36F). Also there was one record low minimum on Jan 7th (4F), the first since Jan 16th, 2004, almost ten years elapsed without one. It would be necessary to go as far back as Mar 1996 to find the last set full record low, anything that occurred 1997 to 2004 was a tie of an already-set record low minimum. The second longest interval with no record low minimum set was 2.5 years from Sep 27, 1957 to Mar 12, 1960 (there are now longer intervals without surviving record low minima). There were in addition six "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 4.75 in 2014. coldest since _____ 2014 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 22, 1888 (0F) ______ 5 ___ 1924,70,76 ___ 0.25 Feb 28, 1934 (5F) ______9 _______ -- -- _______ 1.25 Mar 26, 1960 (20F) ____24 ______ -- -- _______ 2.25 Mar 27, 1894 (20F) ____22 ______ 1915 ______2.75 Apr 15, 1943 (28F) ____ 33 ______ -- -- _______ 3.75 Nov 19, 1936 (18F) ____22 ______ -- -- _______ 4.75 (records in 2014 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 7 _____(19)*___ 4 _____1896 _6F __________ eventual record low minimum ____ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 Jan 22 ____(17) ___( 5) ____ not records in 2014 (1888 _14F, 0F) Mar 26 ___(36) __ (24) ____ not records in 2014 (1872, 1937, 1947 _35F; 1960 _20F) Mar 27 ___(44) __ (22) ____ not records in 2014 (1894 _30F, 20F) Apr 16 ___ (49) __ (31) ____ not records in 2014 (1872 _39F, 1928 _29F) _________________________________ * Max of 19F on Jan 7th within 2F of record low maximum for date, 17F (1878). 2015 _ The second polar vortex winter was even colder especially in February but there were mostly "near miss" type results with one new record low minimum (2F on Feb 20th). The rest of the year took considerable time to warm up relatively, but ended with a record warm December. There was one record low maximum (58F on June 1st, tied 1945) for a count of 0.5, with 55F on the 2nd as noted not a record, and also the count of 1.0 for the record low minimum. In addition, there were four "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 2.5. Details follow: coldest since _____ 2015 value __ tied by ___ count Feb 15, 1943 (-8F) ______ 4 ______ 1987 ______ 0.5 Feb 19, 1936 (1F) _______ 9 ______ -- -- _______ 1.5 Feb 23, 1889 (5F) _______ 8 ______ 1914 _____ 2.0 June 2, sev'l yrs (48F) ___ 50 _____ 2003 ______2.5 (in addition, Feb 16, 2015 (3F) was only 1F higher than the "coldest since" of 2F in 1904 and 4F on Feb 24th the coldest since 1914). (records in 2015 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Feb 20 ___(19) ___ 2 ______1950 _7F ________ eventual record low minimum ______ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 June 1 ____ 58 __ (51) _____tied 1945 _58F __ eventual record low maximum (t1945)_ 0.5, 0.5 June 2 ____(55) __ (50) ____ not records in 2015 (1907 & 1946 _52F; sev'l yrs _48F) 2016 _ The mild winter continued to mid-January after which there was both a record snowfall (Jan 23rd) and a record low minimum (Feb 14th -1F). After that, much of 2016 was rather warm with very infrequent below normal temperatures. The closest approach of any low maximum to a record was also on Feb 14th (15F) within 3F deg of the 1916 record. In addition, there were two "coldest since" record low minima, count 1.33. Details follow: coldest since _____ 2016 value __ tied by ___ count Apr 10, 1974,85,97 (28F) _ 31 _____ -- -- ______ 1.0 May 16, 1878 (42F) ____ 43 _____ 1959,83 ___ 1.33 (records in 2016 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Feb 14 ___(15)*__ -1 _____ 1916 _ 2F __________ eventual record low minimum __ ____ ____ __ 1.0, 1.0 May 16 __(66) __(38) ____ not records in 2016 (1888 _52F, 1878 _42F) _ max 59F on 15th. ___________________________ * Max of 15F on Feb 14th closest to any record low maximum (3F higher than 12F in 1916). 2017 _ This was a sometimes quite cold year with one day reaching record low maximum status (count 0.25) but four more "near misses" of 1 or 2 F, and several more within 3 or 4 F (not shown). There was a brief cold snap overnight Nov 10-11, setting only low minimum records (count 2.0). Again, there were several other minima within 3 to 5 degrees but none within 1-2F of records. In addition, there were two "coldest since" record lows, count 2.0; details follow: coldest since _____ 2017 value __ tied by ___ count Mar 15, 1993 (14F) ____ 20 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 June 28, 1888,93,1915,95 (54F) _ 61___-- -- ______ 2.0 (records in 2017 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by _______ count (max, min) Mar 11___(29) __(17) ____ not records in 2017 (1885 _28F, 1960 _14F) Mar 15___(26) __(20) ____ not records in 2017 (1900 _24F, 1993 _14F) June 6 ___(58) __(52) ____ not records in 2017 (1894 _56F, 1945 _47F) July 14 ___ 73 __ (65) ____ t1884,1960,63 _73F __ eventual record low maximum (t1884,1960,1963) _0.25, 0.25 Nov 10___(51) __ 25 _____ 1914 _27F __________eventual record low minimum _____________ ____ ____ _ 1.0, 1.0 Nov 11 __ (38) __ 24 _____ 1873,1926,33 _28F __ eventual record low minimum _____________ ____ ____ _ 2.0, 2.0 Dec 28 __ (18) __(11) ____ not records in 2017 (1894 _17F, 1917 _8F) 2018 _ Although sometimes rather cold, especially in January and November, 2018 became the seventh and last (so far) year not to set any record low maxima or minima. The closest approach to a low maximum record was 1F on Jan 6th and 7th (13F, 18F) and on Sep 9th (62F). There were two other days within 2F and one within 3F of record low maxima. The closest approach to a record low minimum was 1F on Jan 7th (5F) and again on Nov 23rd (15F). In addition, there were eight "coldest since" record low minima, for a count of 6.833, the highest in recent years. Some were fairly impressive such as close approaches to the Nov 1880 record cold. Details follow: coldest since _____ 2018 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 1, 1918 (-4F) ______ 7 ______ -- -- _______ 1.0 Jan 6, 1896 (-2F) ______ 6 _____ 1912,96 ___ 1.33 Jan 7, 2014 (4F) _______ 5 ______ -- -- _______2.33 Nov 10, 2017 (25F) ___34 ______ -- -- _______3.33 Nov 11, 2017 (24F) ___33 ______ -- -- _______4.33 Nov 15, 1967 (20F) ___28 ______ 1996 _____4.83 Nov 22, 1880 (13F) ___ 17 ______ -- -- ______5.83 Nov 23, 1880 (14F) ___ 15 ______ -- -- ______6.83 (records in 2018 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 6 ____ (13) __ ( 6) ____ not records in 2018 (1896 _12F, -2F) Jan 7 ____ (18) __ ( 5) ____ not records in 2018 (1878 _17F, 2014 _4F) Apr 15 ___(44) __(38) ____not records in 2018 (1885 & 1943 _41F, 1943 _28F) Aug 19 ___(72) __(67) ____not records in 2018 (1881 & 1946 _70F, 1924 _55F) Sep 9 ____ (62) __(55) ____not records in 2018 (1880 & 1883 _61F, 1883 _48F) Sep 10 ___(64) __(54) ____not records in 2018 (1883 _62F, 43F) Nov 22 ___(28) __(17) ____not records in 2018 (1880 _23F, 13F) Nov 23 ___(32) __(15) ____not records in 2018 (1880 _25F, 14F) 2019 _ This was a variable year for temperatures and had its share of cold spells. These set 1.5 daily low maxima, and 2.5 daily low minima. Cold spells in late January and mid-November were most impressive. In addition there were four "coldest since" record low minima, for a count of 4.0. coldest since _____ 2019 value __ tied by ___ count Jan 20, 1994 (0F) ______ 14 _______ -- -- ______ 1.0 Jan 21, 1985 (-2F) ______ 4 _______ -- -- ______ 2.0 May 15, 1920,47 (42F) _ 44 _______ -- -- ______ 3.0 Nov 9, 1976 (24F) _____ 27 _______ -- -- ______ 4.0 (records in 2019 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Jan 21 ___ 14 __ ( 4) _____ not records in 2019 (1985, 9F, -2F) Jan 31 ___ 16 __ ( 2) _____ tied 1935 _16F _____ eventual record low maximum (t1935) __ 0.5, 0.5 May 12 __(59) __(43) ____not records in 2019 (1882 _47F, 1874 & 1907 _40F) May 13 __ 48 __ (42) _____1914 _49F __________ eventual record low maximum ______ 1.5, 1.5 May 14 __(52) __(44) ____ not records in 2019 (1882 _50F, 1878 _40F) May 15 __(69) __(44) ____ not records in 2019 (1878 _50F, 1920 & 1947 _42F) Nov 8 ____(41) __ 29 ____tied 1886 _29F ______eventual record low minimum (t1886) __ ____ ____ _ 0.5, 0.5 Nov 9 ____(41) __ (27) ____ not records in 2019 (1894 _37F, 1976 _24F) Nov 12 ___(57) __ 25 ____ 1925 _26F ___________eventual record low minimum ______ ____ ____ _ 1.5, 1.5 Nov 13 ___(34)*__23 ____ 1986 _24F __________ eventual record low minimum ______ ____ ____ _ 2.5, 2.5 _______________________________ * Max Nov 13th (34F) was 1F above record low maximum 33F (1911). 2020 _ While large portions of this year were quite warm, early May was unusually cold, in particular the night of May 8-9 which created two daily record low minima. There were no daily low maxima, the closest approach was within 3F on Nov 2 (44F) and also Nov 18 (36F). Between those two cold days came a week of record warmth with highs into the mid-70s. In addition there were four "coldest since" record low minima for a count of 3.5. However, one of these is weak, due to 2019 being the record and 2021 the only other year that could set this mark (which it did for Nov 8 and 13). coldest since _____ 2020 value __ tied by ___ count May 10, 1947,66 (36F) _ 39 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 May 13, 1895 (39F) ____41 ______ 1928 ____ 1.5 Sep 20, 1993 (44F) ____ 50 ______ -- -- ______ 2.5 Nov 12, 2019 (25F) ____46 ______ -- -- ______ 3.5 (records in 2020 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 8 ___ (57) __ 36 _____1947 _37F ________ eventual record low minimum ______ ____ ____ _ 1.0, 1.0 May 9 ___ (48) __ 34 _____1947 _35F ________ eventual record low minimum ______ ____ ____ _ 2.0, 2.0 May 13 __(64) __ (41) ____ not records in 2020 (2019 _48F, 1895 _39F) Nov 2 ____(44) __(38) _____not records in 2020 (1875 & 1895 _41F, 1887 _30F) Nov 18 __ (36) __(30) _____not records in 2020 (1914, 24, 59 _33F, 1936 _18F) Summary of records set in the decade 2011-2020 The pace of records stayed very low, even lower than previous decades, in this generally warm decade. There were 4.0 record low maxima, all have survived. At random these numbers would be 25 and 24. There was, however, a significant number (15) "near miss" 1 or 2 F short of being record tying temperatures. Most would probably have qualified in the absence of the large urban heat island effect. They do not quite bring the production up to about random expectation but we could continue to hypothesize that much of the absence of record low maxima in the decade was caused by the urban heat island. A differential of 3F would restore the count to the expected number. The count of record low minima picked up to reach 9.5 which was the highest since the 1981-1990 decade. Here again if we add near misses the total gets fairly close to random expectation. Given that there were no records until 2014, it would seem that the climate has perhaps naturally cooled somewhat in this past eight years although we are of course nowhere near being back to the "glory days" of the 1960s or earlier decades for production of record cold. There were 28.42 "coldest since" record low minima bringing the total recorded to 356.17; that would be out of 364 records set before 2020. A count of 9.83 "coldest since" that existed at the end of 2020 have been created (for the two 2020 records), replaced (six more) or tied (four more) by 2021 to June 4, 2023. There has not been a record low minimum set since May 9, 2020. A summary for the decade 2021-30 will not be possible until after 2030, but it can be noted that the decade is off to approximately the same start as recent decades on a pro-rated basis. __ Log of records for 2021-2030 __ 2021 _ In this rather warm year, one brief cold spell at the end of May managed to set 1.5 low maxima (May 29, 30 both 51F). These are impressively low daytime readings as illustrated by the fact that the June record is 52F (and May 31 57F). Otherwise there were very few cold daytime readings in 2021. July 3rd (66F) came within 2F of the record. There were no daily record low minima, the closest approach during the year was 3F on May 31st (49F) and July 31st (60F). From five (edit four now) "coldest since" record low minima, the count is 3.5. The two related to 2020 record lows were "automatic" and were challenged by 2022 and 2023 ... turns out that May 8 was removed by 45 in 2022, the 46F on May 9 survived for another challenge in 2023 which it survived. coldest since _____ 2021 value __ tied by ___ count May 8, 2020 (36F) ____ 48 _______ -- -- _______ 0.0 _ removed in 2022 May 9, 2020 (34F) ____ 46 _______ -- -- _______ 1.0 July 4, 1986 (55F) _____ 60 _______1992 _______ 1.5 Nov 8, 1886, 2019 (29F) _44 ______ -- -- _______ 2.5 Nov 13, 2019 (23F) ____40 _______ -- -- _______ 3.5 (records in 2021 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 29____51 __ (47) ______t1884 _51F _____ eventual record low maximum (t1884) _ 0.5, 0.5 May 30____51 __ (47) _____ 1884 _55F ______ eventual record low maximum __________ 1.5, 1.5 May 31 ___(70) __ (49) _____not records in 2021 (1878 & 1894 _57F, 1924,30,38 _46F) July 3 _____(66) __(59) _____ not records in 2021 (1870, 1914 _64F, 1933 _54F) July 31 ____(77) __ (60) _____ not records in 2021 (1923 _65F, 1895, 1914 _57F) 2022 _ The year had a cold January with some "coldest since" marks set, and a record low maximum on March 28th (33F) replacing 1893 (34F). A very cold Dec 24th came within 1F of breaking the low (6F in 1983) and 2F the high (13F in 1872). There have been five "coldest since" record low minima, with the count 4.5.. coldest since _____ 2022 value __ tied by ___ count Feb 14, 2016 (-1F) ____ 16 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 Feb 20, 2015 (2F) _____ 21 ______ -- -- ______ 2.0 Mar 29, 1923 (10F) ____24 ______ 1959 ______ 2.5 May 8, 2020 (36F) ____ 45 _______ -- -- ______ 3.5 _ replaced 2021 June 19, 1920 (52F) ___ 54 ______ 1932 ______ 4.0 Dec 24, 1983 (6F) _____ 7 ________ -- -- ______ 5.0 _ replaced 1989 (9F) (records in 2022 ...) Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) Mar 28 _____33 __ (23) _______ 1893 _34F _______ eventual record low maximum __ 1.0, 1.0 June 19 ____(73) __(54) ___ not records in 2022 __ (1935 _59F, 1920 _52F) Dec 24 ____(15) __ ( 7) ____ records were 13 (1872) and 6 (1983) 2023 _ Two "coldest since" record lows have been registered ... two close calls for record low minima came within 1 or 2 F of records. coldest since _____ 2023 value __ tied by ___ count Feb 4, 1886, 1918 (0F) ___ 3 ______ -- -- ______ 1.0 June 4, 1926 (48F) ______ 49 ___ 1929,1945 __ 1.333 Date _____ Max _ Min ___ replaced or tied ___ eventual record? or tied/broken by __ count (max, min) May 18 ___(61) _ 43 ____ not records in 2023 __ (1881 _53F, 1973 _41F) Jun 4 ___ (69) _ 49 ____ not records in 2023 __ (1945 _52F, 1926 _48F)