Roger Smith

This thing is really moving along at warp speed, the dynamics could be quite intense. Thunder-sleet to heavy wind-driven snow for a few hours then clearing rapidly. (for NYC metro), and could see severe thunderstorms ahead of the sharp temp drop in eastern LI and se MA. Road crews will be confronted by flash freeze conditions shortly after the sleet begins. Think this will be particularly bad in ne NJ, lower Hudson and sw CT, gridlock traffic likely to develop as it will be mid-day Saturday in NYC metro unless people heed the weather warnings. Would expect something like 3-5" at most airports but 1.5-2 for Islip. 0.25 to 0.40" sleet l.e. before the snow portion. All gone by Monday.

The center moves along so fast that dynamics will change at breakneck speed too. Track appears to be RIC-SBY-eLI-wBOS and it takes a mere six hours to go that far (RGEM 12z and 18z guidance). For DCA would expect winds to back around ESE to NE to NW during that six hour period, rain to sleet to snow but probably only about 1" snow ending with squalls and wind gusts to 45 mph. Airport amounts may be something like 1.2" BWI, 1.4" DCA, 2.2" IAD. Hourly temps something like 45, 40, 35, 32, 30, 29, 28 in that segment. Snow amounts will increase gradually northwest of DC to 3" around FDK and 7-10" in some higher locations. Near blizzard conditions will develop (reduced visibility in blowing snow briefly spreading into I-95 corridor during squalls). Probably some thunder with the sleet and snow portions. Areas just northwest of I-95 could have very slick roads as a result of sleet, flash freeze and snow accumulating on roads, further north it will be mostly snow which will make road conditions somewhat easier to maintain and further south melting will leave roads only slushy or wet. Looks like the most wintry conditions will be 15z-18z (10 a.m. to 1 p.m.).

Saturday snow potential in the I-95 corridor probably squalls with cold front that will blast through with NW winds 35-55 mph, could be brief visibility reductions with that, some areas a bit higher up will have a flash freeze situation and 1-2" then the mountains should see a decent snowstorm of 4-7". Morning highs will range from about 55-60 in the Delmarva and se VA, to near 45 in DC and 50 in BAL, temps will drop about 15-20 deg within 3-6 hours after the front. Hat tip to Capt Obvious on that one. Any last minute eastward shift on this low track and you have yourselves a surprise snowstorm.

If this follows the CMC guidance could see 70-80 mph W-NW wind gusts in some areas Saturday afternoon and evening, it's a very intense storm tracking almost right overhead and the thickness gradient behind the front is very strong. Probably around 50 F in the morning and 20 F by midnight, any snow would be squalls with the arctic front. Thunderstorm potential seems high for Long Island and southern New England, possibly severe in places.

Are we going to see anything like that heat dome we experienced in this region late June and early July? I am noticing that there has been a tendency in the past for very hot summers to be followed in this region by another rather hot summer before the signal fades out. We can do without any repeat of that. I would say you've done quite well with the winter forecast and perhaps if the amount of cold air moving through central Canada towards Quebec doesn't fit some analogues it may be that in the past these air masses were able to spread out a bit more and lose their concentrated packages of cold. Despite the winter patterns, January was actually quite cold in the Great Lakes region, the anomaly was more than balanced out by milder signals in Dec and Feb. At Toronto it was the 32nd coldest of the past 182 when urban heat island was factored into the value. This cold was a lot less noteworthy by the time it filtered out to the east coast of the U.S. which had a fairly average January.

Getting interesting again with two snowfall threats coming along. I took the current departures and modified them by total snowfalls of 6" at IAD, 4" at DCA and BWI, and 2" at RIC. This would be the leaderboard top 18 (under 14") after that much extra snowfall. Just hypothetical of course ... I may have missed one or two, the lower third of the current table (from Tullioz to end of table) would mostly improve by the total available which is 16" but other than Tullioz, they would remain outside the top twenty, needing perhaps double the amounts that I used here or more. Most of the people in this list improve two or three and lose some of that on the other one or two. Tullioz is the only person on this list who improves at all four. weatherCCB _________ 6.9" Yoda _________________ 7.1" dmillz25 ______________ 7.3" Avdave _______________ 8.4" Arlwx _________________ 8.7" Gramax Refugee _____ 9.1" southmdwatcher _____ 9.3" RodneyS _____________ 10.1" I Used to Hate Cold __ 10.4" Add1212 _____________ 10.4" Mordecai _____________ 10.5" DeerWhisperer _______ 11.0" Scraff _________________ 11.1" Millville Wx ___________ 11.3" midatlanticweather ___ 11.3" Tullioz ________________ 12.8" Weather53 ___________ 12.9" psuhoffman ___________13.1" ___________________________________ This list would not change much if RIC had no snow or less than 2" because only a few of these forecasters still needed less than 2" at RIC. If they were within 2" their net error would likely not change by 2" but a smaller amount. Another fairly constant factor is that almost all need 6" or more at IAD so whatever happens there up to 6" would not change the list although it might add in some excluded at these numbers. It is the standings for DCA and BWI that are most volatile after relatively small changes. Many of the people on the list here have one good and one bad outcome if four inches fell at both locations. Tullioz is the first forecaster down the current list who can gain at all four locations at amounts mentioned here. Below that level, most would gain the full 16" but are above 30" total now so that means they need more to get total departures under 14". I didn't attempt to figure out if anyone on this list has others "stymied" for any outcomes, probably slight variations on my amounts would place any of these on top. Reality will no doubt be quite different from my projection though.

What you need is the GFS development on the ECM track. What you fear is the ECM development on the GFS track.

Jan-Feb 2022 and winter 2021-22 data have been added to the thread and to the files. Tables in this thread are mostly updated where possible to include 2021 and early 2022 data. The winter was a relatively mild one although January was colder than the long-term average, especially for Toronto where it had quite a respectable adjusted mean (u.h.i. compensated) of -7.9 C which placed it near 30th coldest all time. Toronto has also had considerable snowfall this winter, while NYC has had a more average kind of season with most of the snow coming in late January. There were record high max and min readings at NYC on Feb 17th (68, 49 F). The updated excel files supporting this work can now be downloaded over at Netweather and the link to their location is here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/93113-toronto-180-a-north-american-data-base-of-180-years-now-includes-nyc-1869-2020/page/4/#comments Here's the comprehensive list for Toronto severity of winters, applied to the interval of winter 1840-41 to present. Rather than going with standard deviation scores, I took the slightly less complicated approach of adding ranks, lowest totals are most "futile" winters and highest totals are most severe ... it's a fairly similar list to Don Sutherland's NYC list based on standard deviations, and I think if I applied that method, this list would only change slightly. The snowfalls are for the entire winter seasons, and the temperature ranks are only for D-J-F. I think this is the same approach Don S took to his winter indices. Some of the same winters show up. 1931-32 was probably ranking quite close to the top of futility to end of January, but then the winter turned snowy for Feb-Apr in Toronto and dropped out of contention for that reason. I could compare adjusted temps for urban heat island which would tend to move the more ancient cases up a bit, but I decided not to do that because after all this is comparing actual conditions experienced by residents of the city. The weather station is in a very similar location to Central Park in that it's on the university campus just north of the central business district in a "midtown" setting. The numbers for 2024-25 include known 44th ranked temp, and snowfall set at 110 cm (41st lowest) to end of season (100.9 to end of Feb); these ranks will be adjusted moving forward. ... so 185 winters are now ranked. Ties (of added ranks) are broken by least snowfall. Possibly a more accurate index would require considering Nov and Mar mean temperatures, however, that would not save 2011-12 which had a very warm March. TORONTO (downtown) SEVERITY LIST 1840-41 to 2023-24 (est) (Top values least severe, or most "futile" and bottom of table most severe values) Rank ____ Winter ___ Temp DJF (C) (rank) ___Total Winter Snow (cm) (rank) _ 01 _____2011-12 __ +0.77 (03) _____________45.9 (01) ___ total rank 04 _ 02 ____ 2023-24 __ +1.30 (t01) _____________51.7 (04) ___total rank 05 _ 03 ____ 2015-16 __ +0.57 (04) _____________59.7 (05) ___ total rank 09 _ 04 ____ 1952-53 __ -0.37 (09) _____________ 46.8 (03) ___ total rank 12 _ 05 ____ 2001-02 __ +1.30 (t01) ____________ 71.4 (10) ___ total rank 11 _ 06 ____ 1982-83 __ -0.50 (t10) ____________ 73.0 (11) ___ total rank 21 _ 07 ____ 1932-33 __ -1.10 (17) ______________65.3 (06) ___ total rank 23 _ 08 ____ 2016-17 __ +0.03 (08) _____________ 77.0 (16) ___ total rank 24 _ 09 ____ 2005-06 __ -1.00 (16) _____________ 70.4 (09) ___ total rank 25 _ 10 ____ 1936-37 __ -1.17 (19) ______________ 70.3 (08) ___ total rank 27 _ 11 __ 1999-2000 __ -1.27 (20) ______________82.8 (20) ___ total rank 40 _ 12 ____ 2006-07 __ -1.90 (34) ______________ 67.9 (07) ___ total rank 41 _ 13 ____ 1994-95 __ -1.70 (t28) _____________ 75.4 (13) ___ total rank 41 _ 14 ____ 1881-82 __ -1.70 (t28) _____________ 77.2 (17) ___ total rank 45 _ 15 ____ 2009-10 __ -2.47 (t45) _____________ 46.2 (02) ___ total rank 47 _ 16 ____ 1918-19 __ -1.33 (22) _______________93.0 (26)__ total rank 48 _ 17 ____ 1905-06 __ -2.13 (t39) _____________ 76.6 (14) ___ total rank 53 _ 18 ____ 1877-78 __ -2.10 (38) ______________ 76.7 (15) ___ total rank 53 _ 19 ____ 1841-42 __ -2.37 (43) ______________ 75.0 (12) ___ total rank 55 _20 ____ 2020-21 __ -1.47 (t23) _____________100.5 (33) __ total rank 56 _21 ____ 1997-98 __ +0.50 (05) ____________ 115.6 (t51) __ total rank 56 _ 22 ____ 1988-89 __ -1.97 (35) _______________87.2 (22) __ total rank 57 _ 23 ____ 1990-91 __ -1.30 (21) _____________ 104.2 (38) __ total rank 59 _ 24 ____ 1889-90 __ -0.87 (15) _____________ 112.3 (44) __ total rank 59 _ 25 ____ 1991-92 __ -1.73 (30) _______________96.4 (30) __ total rank 60 _ 26 ____ 1987-88 __ -2.00 (36) ______________ 92.4 (25) __ total rank 61 _ 27 ____ 1920-21 __ -1.53 (27) ______________ 109.0 (40) __ total rank 67 _ 28 ____ 1974-75 __ -0.50 (t10) _____________ 121.9 (60) __ total rank 70 _ 29 ____ 1847-48 __ -2.53 (t49) ______________ 88.6 (23) __ total rank 72 _ 30 ____ 1912-13 __ -2.13 (t39) _____________ 100.9 (34) __ total rank 73 _ 31 ____ 2012-13 __ -0.63 (t12) _____________ 124.0 (61) __ total rank 73 _ 32 ____ 1957-58 __ -2.93 (t59) _______________79.6 (19) __ total rank 78 _ 33 ____ 2024-25 __ -2.40 (44) _____________est 110 (41) __ total rank 85 _ 34 ____ 2017-18 __ -2.90 (t57) ______________ 95.2 (28)__ total rank 85 _ 35 ____ 2022-23 ___+0.23 (07) _____________133.2 (81) ___ total rank 88 _ 36 ____ 1948-49 __ -1.13 (18) ______________ 128.3 (72) __ total rank 90 _ 37 ____ 1943-44 __ -2.57 (51) _____________ 110.0 (41) _ total rank 92 _ 38 ____ 1972-73 __ -2.60 (t52) _____________ 114.5 (46) _ total rank 98 _ 39 ____ 1928-29 __ -3.37 (80) ______________ 85.7 (21) __ total rank 101 _ 40 ____ 1941-42 __ -3.33 (79) ______________ 89.6 (24) __ total rank 103 _ 41 ____ 1927-28 __ -3.27 (75) _______________ 96.4 (29) __ total rank 104 _ 42 ____ 1937-38 __ -3.53 (t87) _____________ 78.4 (18) __ total rank 105 _ 43 ____ 1968-69 __ -3.23 (74) ______________ 97.0 (31) __ total rank 105 _ 44 ____ 2003-04 __ -2.97 (64) _____________ 110.1 (43) __ total rank 106 _ 45 ____ 2019-20 __ -0.63 (t12) ____________ 144.5 (96) __ total rank 108 _ 46 ____ 1931-32 __ +0.47 (06) _____________ 149.3 (102) _ total rank 108 _ 47 ____ 1953-54 __ -1.47 (t23) _____________135.7 (87) _ total rank 110 _ 48 ____ 2018-19 __ -2.47 (t45) ____________ 128.0 (71) _ total rank 116 _ 49 ____ 1858-59 __ -3.40 (t81) ____________ 104.9 (39) _ total rank 120 _ 50 ____ 1979-80 __ -3.00 (t65) ____________ 121.1 (t56) _ total rank 121 _ 51 ____ 1954-55 __ -2.90 (t57) ____________ 125.9 (65) _ total rank 122 _ 52 ____ 1891-92 __ -3.53 (t87) ____________ 102.9 (35) _ total rank 122 _ 53 ____ 1950-51 __ -2.33 (42) ______________ 134.2 (82) _ total rank 124 _ 54 ____ 1986-87 __ -1.77 (31) ______________ 146.7 (98) _ total rank 129 _ 55 ____ 1956-57 __ -2.60 (t52) _____________132.6 (t79) _ total rank 131 _ 56 ____ 1921-22 __ -3.30 (t76) _____________ 121.1 (t56) _ total rank 132 _ 57 ____ 2021-22 __ -2.47 (t45) _____________136.1 (88) _ total rank 133 _ 58 ____ 1896-97 __ -3.87 (101) ____________ 103.1 (36) _ total rank 137 _ 59 ____ 1989-90 __ -3.10 (t71) ____________ 126.4 (66) _ total rank 137 _ 60 ____ 1998-99 __ -0.73 (14) _____________162.2 (124) _ total rank 138 _ 61 ____ 1980-81 __ -4.20 (113) _____________ 94.3 (27) __ total rank 140 _ 62 ____ 1849-50 __ -3.17 (73) _____________ 127.5 (t67) __ total rank 140 _ 63 ____ 1857-58 __ -3.53 (t87) ____________ 119.7 (54) __ total rank 141 _ 64 ____ 1965-66 __ -2.53 (t49) ____________143.7 (95) __ total rank 144 _ 65 ____ 1985-86 __ -3.83 (t97) ___________ 115.0 (48) __ total rank 145 _ 66 ____ 1879-80 __ -1.83 (32) ____________ 156.1 (118) __ total rank 150 _ 67 ____ 2004-05 __ -3.03 (68) ____________ 139.4 (89) _ total rank 157 _ 68 ____ 1967-68 __ -4.07 (110) ___________ 116.9 (52) _ total rank 162 _ 69 ____ 1863-64 __ -3.73 (95) _____________127.5 (t67) _ total rank 162 _ 70 ____ 1996-97 __ -1.47 (t23) _____________174.4 (140) _ total rank 163 _ 71 ____ 1852-53 __ -3.70 (94) _____________ 127.8 (70) _ total rank 164 _ 72 ____ 2010-11 __ -3.93 (t102) ___________ 124.3 (63) _ total rank 165 _ 73 ____ 1984-85 __ -2.67 (t55) ____________ 153.0 (110) _ total rank 165 _ 74 ____ 2008-09 __ -3.60 (t91) ____________ 130.1 (76) _ total rank 167 _ 75 ____ 1973-74 __ -3.43 (t83) ____________ 134.9 (84) _ total rank 167 _ 76 ____ 1961-62 __ -4.27 (t119) ____________115.5 (49) _ total rank 168 _ 77 ____ 1939-40 __ -4.00 (109) ____________ 121.5 (59) _ total rank 168 _ 78 ____ 1949-50 __ -1.50 (26) _____________ 177.6 (144) _ total rank 170 _ 79 ____ 1897-98 __ -3.40 (t81) _____________140.7 (t90) _ total rank 171 _ 80 ____ 1930-31 __ -2.93 (t59) _____________ 153.4 (112) _ total rank 171 _ 81 ____ 1960-61 __ -3.83 (t97) _____________ 130.3 (77) _ total rank 174 _ 82 ____ 1926-27 __ -4.43 (t124) ____________115.6 (t51) _ total rank 175 _ 83 ____ 1963-64 __ -3.43 (85) _____________ 142.8 (t93) _ total rank 178 _ 84 ____ 1865-66 __ -4.73 (132) ____________ 114.8 (47) _ total rank 179 _ 85 ____ 1992-93 __ -2.87 (t55) _____________163.0 (126) _ total rank 181 _ 86 ____ 1951-52 __ -2.03 (37) ______________177.9 (145) _ total rank 182 _ 87 ____ 1850-51 __ -4.23 (t117) ____________ 127.5 (t67) _ total rank 184 _ 88 ____ 1962-63 __ -5.70 (t156) _____________ 99.2 (32) _ total rank 188 _ 89 ____ 2014-15 __ -5.50 (t151) ____________ 104.1 (37) _ total rank 188 _ 90 ____ 1969-70 __ -5.10 (t143) ____________ 114.4 (45) _ total rank 188 _ 91 ____ 2000-01 __ -2.93 (t59) _____________ 165.6 (130) _ total rank 189 _ 92 ____ 1902-03 __ -4.23 (t117) ____________ 129.5 (74) _ total rank 191 _ 93 ____ 1975-76 __ -2.93 (t59) _____________ 170.7 (134) _ total rank 193 _ 94 ____ 1846-47 __ -4.67 (131) _____________ 125.5 (64) _ total rank 195 _ 95 ____ 1995-96 __ -3.93 (t102) ____________142.8 (t93) _ total rank 195 _ 96 ____ 1971-72 __ -2.50 (48) ______________ 179.8 (147) _ total rank 195 _ 97 ____ 1940-41 __ -3.67 (93) ______________ 149.4 (103) _ total rank 196 _ 98 ____ 1934-35 __ -5.10 (t143) ____________ 121.4 (58) _ total rank 201 _ 99 ____ 1924-25 __ -4.53 (t127) ____________ 129.8 (75) _ total rank 202 _100 ____ 1929-30 __ -3.93 (t102) ____________ 148.9 (101) _ total rank 203 _101 ____ 2007-08 __ -1.87 (33) ______________209.7 (t170) _ total rank 203 _102 ____ 1843-44 __ -3.60 (t91) ____________ 154.2 (114) _ total rank 205 _103 ____ 1844-45 __ -2.93 (t59) ____________ 178.4 (146) _ total rank 205 _104 ____ 1901-02 __ -4.60 (t129) ____________ 131.8 (78) _ total rank 207 _105 ____ 1893-94 __ -4.43 (t124) ___________ 134.7 (83) _ total rank 207 _106 ____ 1966-67 __ -3.10 (t71) ______________172.5 (137) _ total rank 208 _107 ____ 1946-47 __ -3.30 (t76) ______________171.9 (135) _ total rank 211 _108 ____ 1908-09 __ -2.60 (t52) _____________ 191.8 (159) _ total rank 211 _109 ____ 1848-49 __ -4.50 (t151) ____________ 124.2 (62) _ total rank 213 _110 ____ 1959-60 __ -2.20 (41) ______________ 211.0 (172) _ total rank 213 _111 ____ 1871-72 __ -5.93 (162) _____________ 119.1 (53) _ total rank 215 _112 ____ 1955-56 __ -3.30 (t76) ______________173.8 (139) _ total rank 215 _113 ____ 1983-84 __ -3.43 (t83) _____________ 167.0 (133) _ total rank 216 _114 ____ 1923-24 __ -3.00 (t65) _____________ 182.0 (152) _ total rank 217 _115____ 1906-07 __ -5.97 (t163) ____________ 120.8 (55) _ total rank 218 _116 ____ 1945-46 __ -4.27 (t119) ____________ 147.2 (99) _ total rank 218 _117 ____ 1862-63 __ -3.00 (t65) _____________ 182.8 (153) _ total rank 218 _118 ____ 1914-15 __ -3.83 (t97) ______________158.0 (122) _ total rank 219 _119 ____ 1894-95 __ -5.07 (t141) ____________ 132.6 (t79) _ total rank 220 _120 ____ 1840-41 __ -4.97 (t136) ____________ 135.0 (85) _ total rank 221 _121 ____ 1888-89 __ -4.10 (111) _____________ 153.3 (111) _ total rank 222 _122 ____ 2002-03 __ -3.93 (t102) ___________ 162.5 (125) _ total rank 227 _123 ____ 1890-91 __ -4.20 (t113) ____________ 155.0 (115) _ total rank 228 _124 ____ 1913-14 __ -3.97 (t106) ____________ 157.9 (122) _ total rank 228 _125 ____ 1915-16 __ -3.57 (90) ______________ 174.5 (141) _ total rank 231 _126 ____ 1909-10 __ -4.37 (123) _____________ 152.9 (109) _ total rank 232 _127 ____ 1964-65 __ -3.47 (86) ______________ 181.9 (151) _ total rank 237 _128 ____ 1887-88 __ -5.97 (165) _____________ 128.9 (73) _ total rank 238 _129 ____ 1916-17 __ -5.43 (t149) ____________ 140.7 (t90) _ total rank 239 _130 ____ 1910-11 __ -4.33 (122) _____________ 155.8 (115)_ total rank 237 _131 ____ 1938-39 __ -3.07 (t69) _____________ 209.7 (t170) _ total rank 237 _132 ____ 1947-48 __ -5.00 (t138) ____________ 149.7 (105) _ total rank 243 _133 __1899-1900 __ -3.97 (t106) ____________ 173.6 (138) _ total rank 244 _134 ____ 1978-79 __ -5.23 (146) _____________ 148.0 (100) _ total rank 246 _135 ____ 1875-76 __ -3.07 (t69) ______________249.0 (179) _ total rank 248 _136 ____ 1853-54 __ -5.73 (158) _____________ 142.3 (92) _ total rank 250 _137 ____ 1981-82 __ -4.53 (t128) ____________ 158.9 (122) _ total rank 250 _138 ____ 1925-26 __ -4.43 (t124) ____________ 163.1 (127) _ total rank 251 _139 ____ 2013-14 __ -5.33 (147) _____________ 151.6 (106) _ total rank 253 _140 ____ 1898-99 __ -5.07 (t141) ____________ 155.2 (116) _ total rank 257 _141 ____ 1976-77 __ -5.97 (t163) _____________ 145.4 (97) _ total rank 260 _142 ____ 1993-94 __ -5.53 (153) _____________ 152.4 (108) _ total rank 261 _143 ____ 1895-96 __ -4.20 (t113) ____________ 180.4 (148) _ total rank 261 _144 ____ 1904-05 __ -7.27 (177) _____________ 135.6 (86) _ total rank 263 _145 ____ 1900-01 __ -4.97 (t136) ____________ 164.1 (129) _ total rank 265 _146 ____ 1970-71 __ -4.20 (t113) ____________ 187.8 (158) _ total rank 271 _147 ____ 1868-69 __ -3.83 (t97) _____________ 220.5 (177) _ total rank 274 _148 ____ 1861-62 __ -4.13 (112) _____________201.2 (166) _ total rank 278 _149 ____ 1933-34 __ -6.63 (173) _____________ 152.0 (107) _ total rank 280 _150 ____ 1873-74 __ -3.97 (t106) ____________ 213.1 (174) _ total rank 280 _151 ____ 1869-70 __ -3.80 (95) ______________ 313.7 (185) _ total rank 280 _152 ____ 1878-79 __ -6.47 (169) _____________ 153.6 (113) _ total rank 282 _153 ____ 1880-81 __ -7.40 (178) _____________ 151.4 (105) _ total rank 283 _154 ____ 1907-08 __ -4.27 (t119) ____________ 198.6 (164) _ total rank 283 _155 ____ 1958-59 __ -5.57 (154) ____________ 165.8 (131) _ total rank 285 _156 ____ 1885-86 __ -5.90 (t160) ____________ 163.4 (128) _ total rank 288 _157 ____ 1977-78 __ -5.17 (145) ______________ 177.3 (143) _ total rank 288 _158 ____ 1942-43 __ -4.80 (134) _____________ 184.4 (156) _ total rank 290 _159 ____ 1845-46 __ -5.87 (159) ______________166.0 (132) _ total rank 291 _160 ____ 1859-60 __ -5.70 (157) _____________ 173.3 (137) _ total rank 294 _161 ____ 1919-20 __ -7.47 (179) ______________ 156.8 (t119) _ total rank 298 _162 ____ 1842-43 __ -4.87 (135) _____________ 200.0 (165) _ total rank 300 _163 ____ 1903-04 __ -8.13 (184) _____________ 156.8 (t119) _ total rank 303 _164 ____ 1860-61 __ -5.00 (t138) ____________ 203.6 (167) _ total rank 305 _165 ____ 1922-23 __ -5.00 (t138) ____________ 204.9 (168) _ total rank 306 _166 ____ 1935-36 __ -6.20 (166) _____________ 175.2 (142) _ total rank 308 _167 ____ 1944-45 __ -5.40 (148) _____________ 193.3 (160) _ total rank 308 _168 ____ 1911-12 __ -5.43 (t149) _____________194.0 (t161) _ total rank 310 _169 ____ 1866-67 __ -4.60 (t129) _____________ 288.8 (183) _ total rank 312 _170 ____ 1870-71 __ -4.77 (133) ______________ 253.7 (181) _ total rank 314 _171 ____ 1883-84 __ -5.90 (t160) ____________ 194.0 (t161) _ total rank 321 _172 ____ 1867-68 __ -7.07 (t175) _____________ 181.4 (149) _ total rank 324 _173 ____ 1864-65 __ -5.67 (154) ______________ 213.6 (175) _ total rank 329 _174 ____ 1917-18 __ -7.77 (180) ______________ 181.5 (150) _ total rank 330 _175 ____ 1892-93 __ -7.07 (t175) _____________ 186.5 (157) _ total rank 332 _176 ____ 1855-56 __ -7.80 (181) _____________ 183.0 (154) _ total rank 335 _177 ____ 1884-85 __ -7.97 (182) ______________183.7 (155) _ total rank 337 _178 ____ 1886-87 __ -6.70 (174) ______________ 194.7 (163) _ total rank 337 _179 ____ 1876-77 __ -6.37 (168) _____________ 206.0 (169) _ total rank 337 _180 ____ 1856-57 __ -6.60 (172) _____________ 212.4 (173) _ total rank 345 _181 ____ 1882-83 __ -6.30 (167) _____________ 234.9 (178) _ total rank 345 _182 ____ 1854-55 __ -6.50 (170) _____________ 213.7 (176) _ total rank 346 _183 ____ 1851-52 __ -6.53 (171) ______________249.3 (180) _ total rank 351 _184 ____ 1874-75 __ -8.57 (185) ______________254.0 (182) _ total rank 367 _185 ____ 1872-73 __ -8.00 (183) _____________ 289.8 (184) __ total rank 367

Yes, I think that parts of the inland northeast US are still running below their normal winter snowfalls and only around ACY into the Delmarva can we find any significant above normal amounts to date. ACY is about twice its normal. The places doing worst relative to normal seem to be around eastern PA and central NY state. This has not been a particularly strong lake effect winter but the Toronto-Buffalo region has had considerable synoptic snowfall anyway. Back towards Detroit and Chicago the snowfalls are relatively less impressive and end up below average in parts of the Midwest too. There is a heavy snow pack in the border regions and the Canadian prairies. This trends to a normal snowpack in many parts of the Pac NW mountains and BC. Snowmelt has been gradual but almost complete now in southern BC valleys, at my mid-mountain elevation we never had as much snow as most winters and the ground cover now is around 8-10" in town and 12-18" in nearby lower alpine. In western Europe, a lot of people (including me) had forecasts that included some severe wintry conditions in January but all that happened was that a blocking high set up on the coast instead of over central Europe. This led to a fairly normal January that was unusually dry. February was about like December, mild and rather wet. Now there are signs of eastern European blocking and severe cold into the conflict zone in Ukraine, deepening next week. But that cold pattern is currently associated with less significant blocking and cold near the British Isles It has been an odd winter for that region, some record high temperatures on two occasions, long stretches of bland weather, and a few very strong storms. There has not been much snow away from higher ground. Last April was record cold in parts of west-central Europe so perhaps that pattern will show up again at some point this spring season. I think we come up with similar forecasts simply because our two methods are not that different, I derive index values from all data and my timing is from external sources of energy, yours is to identify similar teleconnections which are probably buried in the cause and effect of my index values. So I have (in the past few winters) always looked at your forecasts and the others posted here to see what I can learn about those methods, especially if there were any other index value weighting parameters that might emerge. My theory is that the bulk of the challenge is buried in the past numbers but only after they are modified by considerations of AGW and grid shifting (which means you could come up with an accurate prediction by taking grid points that were not stationary but shifting across a grid). In your own case, your analogues might have been more in south Texas 50-100 years ago as I am finding that the grid I use is shifting northwest with the magnetic field. The northward component of shift aligns with warming. The westward component may align more with different responses to storm track assumptions. This may be part of the reason why the past never repeats very precisely, because any situation where it might try to do so would involve the same signal over different terrain.

Still looks interesting around mid-month, a lot of cold air draining out of central Canada and strong storms near the coast. At that time range can you really ask for much more as a general theme? Could it perhaps be a month like March 1983 that flipped from mild to cold around mid-month? I recall a 5" snowfall late in that month in Ontario, not sure if you had any snow that far south. That snow came quite a while after early spring blooms and bare ground, green grass etc up north of Toronto where it does not often look that way in early March. Anyway, if not snow then certainly strong cold winds indicated, probably snow flurries from lake effect spilling over the mountains. Looks rather toasty before that phase begins. The thaw just started here, snow to slush in a cold foggy rain.

Table of forecasts for March 2022 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA wxallannj _________________+3.3 _+3.1 _+2.6 __ +2.2 _+3.6 _+2.8 ___+0.6 _-0.5 _-1.0 RJay _____________________ +3.0 _+2.8 _+2.0 __+0.5 _+4.2 _+2.5 ___+0.5 _-1.0 _+0.8 DonSutherland 1 _________+3.0 _+2.3 _+1.8 __ +1.8 _ +3.8 _+2.4 ___+1.7 _+1.8 _-0.7 Tom ______________________+2.6 _+2.8 _+2.8 __ +1.9 _+2.7 _+0.6 ___-0.5 _-0.6 _-0.9 BKViking _________________+2.6 _+1.9 _+1.4 __ +0.2 _+2.9 _+2.0 ___+0.9 _+1.4 _+0.2 Stormchaser Chuck (-2%)_+2.5_+2.0_+1.5 __ -3.0 _ +3.0 _+3.0 ___+2.5 _+3.5 __0.0 ___ Consensus ____________+2.3 _+2.0 _+1.5 __+0.7 _+3.0 _+2.1 ___ +0.6_ +0.4 _-0.6 so_whats_happening _____+2.1 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ +1.1 __+3.4 _+2.4 ___+1.2 _ +1.3 _-0.6 hudsonvalley21 ___________+2.1 _+1.6 _+1.2 __ +1.3 _+3.0 _+2.2 ___ +0.8 _+0.5 _-0.5 RodneyS __________________+1.9 _+1.4 _+1.0 __ +0.2 _+4.2 _+1.3 ___-0.6 _+0.3 _-1.4 wxdude64 ________________+1.7 _+2.1 _+1.5 __ +0.8 _+2.2 _+1.6 ___ +0.3 _-0.4 _-1.2 Scotty Lightning __________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +0.5 _+1.5 _+0.5 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 Roger Smith ______________ -1.3 _ -1.5 _ -1.7 __ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 ___ -3.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.7 ============================================== color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts. Consensus is median value (mean of 6th and 7th ranked of 12).

Four Seasons contest __ winter 2021-22 portion _ Dec 2021, Jan 2022, Feb 2022 FORECASTER _________________ TOTAL _________ Points Don Sutherland 1 _______________1623 ___________ 10 RodneyS _______________________1600 ____________ 7 wxallannj _______________________1572 ___________ 6 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 1540 ___________ 5 wxdude64 _____________________ 1535 ___________ 4 __ Consensus __________________ 1513 ___________ 3.5 so_whats_happening ___________1499 ___________ 3 BKViking _______________________1467 ___________ 2 RJay ___________________________1351 ___________ 1 __ Normal ______________________1173 ___________ 1 Tom ___________________________ 1309 ___________ 1 Scotty Lightning _______________ 1138 ___________ 1 Roger Smith ____________________1043 ___________ 1 Stormchaser Chuck _____________ 674 (1/3) ______ 0 Deformation Zone _______________430 (1/3) ______ 0 ============================================ Scoring is based on 10 for first place, 7 for second, down to 2 points for 7th and 1 point for anyone else who entered at least 2/3 of contests. This year, if Consensus or Normal score more than one, they get the middle value of the range, in this case, Consensus scores 3.5. December scoring was rather low especially below third place, compared to Jan and Feb, so the totals have tended to mirror December's scoring.

-1.3 _ -1.5 _ -1.7 _ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ -2.0 _ -3.0 _ +1.0 _ -0.7

Details of course did not match up perfectly, for example, there were alternating mild chinook spells and times where arctic air either preferred to stay inland west, or back-doored in from the expected strong arctic outflows into central Canada (which has had a severe winter, don't think the Midwest would qualify as severe, with a few limited very cold spells). The east coast remarks are closer to being right than wrong so far, waiting to see if March does what I think it will do and flip from cold to very warm after the equinox like 1948 as a prime example. What do you think raindancewx? You said you were leaning similar but I wasn't sure what your final call was, or how you think it may have done? For the three winter months, I think the local average temperature will be almost bang on normal, and snowfall here has been below long-term averages (which are quite high, it is not unusual to see 1.5 to 2.5 metres of snow on the ground at times here, the maximum snow depth in town has been 35-40 cm and out on the slopes around one metre possibly). We have had a lot more sunshine than is normal here, and almost no rain mixing in which has made it quite an easy winter compared to some (nothing worse than a heavy rain on top of a heavy snowpack).

Got a good feeling about mid-March, all this cold air continuing to spread south on a regular basis can't keep missing cyclogenesis every single time, or can it? The current 360h GFS shows a large energy peak on the east coast, all its other details can be safely ignored at this time range but the timing seems about right, March 13 is after all a date with some pedigree for storms on the east coast (both 1993 and 1888 overlapped it). It just seems like this winter wants to go for it but can't quite put it all together, maybe at the buzzer it will sink a three-pointer (great March madness imagery, or am I just mad? Beware the ideas of March).

________________ Annual Scoring Report (Jan-Feb 2022) __________________ Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTAL wxdude64 ______________ 127 _145 _189 __ 461 __159 _153_ 88 __ 400 __861 __126 _132 _ 181 __ 439 ____1300 so_whats_happening ____116 _130 _152 __ 398 __165 _148 _ 68 __ 381 __779 __ 108 _150 _182 __ 440 ____1219 wxallannj ________________ 94 _108 _126 __ 328 __148 _146 _122__ 416 __744 __140 _142 _146 __ 428 ____1172 hudsonvalley21 __________104 _122 _126 __ 352 __154 _128 _ 80 __ 362 __714 __130 _156 _156 __ 442 ____1156 ____ Consensus __________100 _114 _130 __ 344 __150 _132 _ 74 __ 356 __700 __136 _152 _160 __ 448 ____1148 DonSutherland1 _________ 108 _120 _146 __ 374 __154 _106 _ 66 __ 326 __700 __138 _158 _130 __ 426 ____1126 BKViking _________________ 92 _106 _128 __326 __140 _130 _ 42 __ 312 __638 __134 _166 _156 __ 456 ____1094 RodneyS _________________ 84 _ 80 _110 __ 274 __108 _142 _ 88 __ 338 __612 __138 _160 _172 __ 470 ____1082 _____ Normal _____________ 90 _104 _124 __318 __ 80 _ 130 _116 __ 326 __ 644 __112 _166 _126 __404 ____1048 Tom ______________________70 _ 76 _ 92 __ 238 __144 _ 96 _158 __ 398 __ 636 __146 _164 _ 90 __ 400 ____1036 Scotty Lightning _________ 90 _104 _134 __328 __ 62 _110 _ 56 __ 228 __ 556 __ 102 _156 _ 126 __ 384 ____940 RJay _____________________ 80 _ 94 _114 __ 288 __130 _130 _ 32 __ 292 __ 580 __ 92 _ 102 _ 76 __ 270 ____ 850 Roger Smith ______________48 _ 58 _ 54 __ 160 __ 66 _ 106 _ 60 __ 232 __ 392 __ 152 _118 _130 __ 400 ____ 792 Stormchaser Chuck (1/2) _ 92 _ 92 _ 80 __ 264 __ 58 _ 86 _ 80 __ 224 __ 488 ___ 94 _ 68 _ 24 __ 186 ____ 674 =========================================== Best Forecasts _ * tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with two others. FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total wxdude64 _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ Jan so_whats_happening ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*____ 0 wxallannj ________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ Consensus ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 DonSutherland1 __________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ Feb BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RodneyS _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ Normal ________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Tom ______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Scotty Lightning __________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 RJay ______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Roger Smith ______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 Stormchaser Chuck _______ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ========================= EXTREME FORECAST SCORING (second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred once for SEA in Feb.) (wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them) So far, 13 of 18 forecasts qualify, 4 warmest and 9 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, FORECASTER ____________ Jan _Feb _Mar _ _TOTAL DonSutherland1 __________ --- _ 4-0*_ ___ ____4-0 (3.5 - 0) wxdude64 ________________1-0 _ 3-0*_ ___ ____4-0 (3.5 - 0) Tom ______________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ ___ ___ 2-0 Stormchaser Chuck ______ 2-1 _ --- _ ___ ____ 2-1 RodneyS __________________ --- _ 1-0 _ ___ ___ 1-0 so_whats_happening _____ 1-0 _ --- _ ___ ____ 1-0 ____ Normal _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ ___ ____ 1-0 Roger Smith ______________ --- _ 1- 1 _ ___ ____ 1- 1 hudsonvalley21 ___________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 RJay ______________________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 Scotty Lightning __________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 wxallannj __________________--- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 BKViking __________________ --- _ --- _ ___ ____ 0-0 ===============================

Would the shift east in snowfall as you've been discussing be related to warming, not just the AGW type but natural variability from the 1961-90 average to 1991-2020, upstream at Toronto I have that calculated to be around 1.5 F deg almost none of which would be urban heat island and only a fraction AGW (but even if all AGW, same argument) -- with less intense cold draining out of eastern Canada, cold air damming over southern New England in today's type of storm would be less robust on average. Of course there could be specific exceptions. Can somebody give me one or two good examples of heavier snowfalls in CT from similar coastal transfer type synoptics? I could have a look at what was happening upstream in those cases. If you wanted an even larger scale explanation, the temperature changes for Toronto probably reflect changes in the Pacific anomalies.

Dying primary is now south of SYR and large areas of moderate snow across eastern Ontario and upstate NY should get pulled into the coastal circulation rapidly now, the entire storm consolidates by 00z into one low south of NS with a trailing wave east of BOS, my feeling is that some of this snowfall is going to be pulled southeast across VT and s NH, northern parts of MA later this afternoon, could keep snowfall rates fairly good in places where some seem to be saying only 1" more to come? Would say 3-5" more is quite realistic. Should play out quickly as the upper trof is moving at warp speed.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1991-2020 normals for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... deadline is 06z Tuesday March 1st.

I'm representing queens but my 8-10 diamonds is a Daniel Negranu must-play.

Toronto.

This has over-performer written large, long duration and lots of moisture, cold air well entrenched, could see nice 12-22 inch bands through most of n CT and MA, southern tier of VT and NH, southern ME. Probably closer to 6-10 south coast CT-RI and se MA. These early spring coastal redevelopers always seem to do better than expected. They don't have much chance of advecting warm air very close to the snowfall zones. Would it be correct to say that banding is not very strong in these coastal redevelopers? As compared to a classic nor'easter? I know the all important result is Tolland so that calculates out to a juicy 16.3". The jack will be somewhere north of ORH maybe just across state line but a local 24" seems possible. Significant wind chills with this will make it near-blizzard like as experienced by the public even if not meeting criteria.

This may surprise, but I am leaning milder for MD and definitely VA, the cold push will be repelled slowly but surely and the ice or sleet will be largely confined to the northern tier of counties in MD and southern PA, as temps recover to mid to high 40s F around midnight, with a south wind resuming by 8 p.m. ... there could be minor icing further south before this pushback sets in. Maybe this is not very different from what others are expecting, I haven't read every post just the more recent ones. This looks like the typical early spring coastal transfer upstate NY-nPA-inland NE snowstorm scenario with 8-12 inch potential there. Worst icing from this around Reading PA.

Final scoring for February 2022 Scores are based on end of month anomalies (several posts back now). * _ one point late penalty applied __ ^ max 60 scoring by ranks. Forecaster ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL Don Sutherland 1 _____ 78 _ 96 _ 94 __ 268 __ 94 _ 72 _ 36^__ 202 __470 __44 _ 82 _ 94 __ 220____ 690 RodneyS ______________62 _ 78 _ 88 __ 228 __ 90 _ 78 _ 48^__ 216 __444 __ 52 _ 76 _ 78 __ 206 ____ 650 BKViking ______________72 _ 92 _ 94 __ 258 __100_ 60 _ 18^ __ 178 __436 __ 36 _ 78 _ 86 __ 200 ____ 636 wxdude64 _ (-1%) _____69*_ 87*_ 97*_ 253 __ 97*_ 53*_ 24^__ 174 __427 __ 50 _ 48 _ 93*__ 191____ 618 ___ Consensus ________ 64 _ 86 _ 84 __ 234 __ 98 _ 60 _ 30^__ 188 __422 __ 42 _ 64 _ 78 __ 184 ____ 606 hudsonvalley21 _______ 68 _ 92 _ 76 __ 236 __ 90 _ 64 _ 42^__ 196 __432 __ 32 _ 64 _ 68 __ 164 ____ 596 so_whats_happening __ 64 _ 86 _ 84 __ 234 __ 95*_ 66 _ 12^__ 173 __407 ___20 _ 60 _ 82 __162 ____ 569 wxallannj ______________40 _ 62 _ 60 __ 162 ___ 96 _ 60 _ 54^__210 __372 __ 42 _ 54 _ 54 __ 150 ____ 522 Scotty Lightning ______ 68 _ 92 _ 94 __ 254 __ 62 _ 46 _ 06^__ 114 __368 __ 28 _ 64 _ 52 __ 144 ____ 512 ___ Normal ____________ 48 _ 72 _ 74 __ 194 __ 72 _ 36 _ 36^__ 144 __338 __ 28 _ 84 _ 62 __ 174 ____ 512 Tom ___________________30 _ 50 _ 50 __ 130 __ 98 _ 12 _ 60^__ 170 __300 __ 52 _ 68 _ 44 __ 164 ____ 464 RJay __________________ 58 _ 82 _ 84 __ 224 __ 92 _ 56 _ 12^__ 160 __384 __ 08 _ 34 _ 12 __ 054 ____ 438 Roger Smith ___________ 12 _ 28 _ 14 __ 054 __ 38 _ 36 _ 30^__ 104 __158 ___98 _ 48 _ 52 __198 ____ 356 ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== [] ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== swh ORD fcst -1 (late revision) _______________________________________________________ Extreme forecast report DCA_ Don Sutherland (+1.5) takes a win for an outcome of +2.6. NYC_ Don Sutherland (+1.2) takes a win for an outcome of +1.4. BOS_ wxdude64 (+1.2) takes a win for an outcome of +1.3. ORD_ Did not qualify (-1.6). Fifth coldest forecast had high score. ATL_ RodneyS (+2.1) takes a win for an outcome of +3.2. IAH_ Tom (-1.9) takes a win as outcome is -5.8. DEN_ At -3.6 this is a win for Roger Smith (-3.5). PHX_ At -0.8, win for DonSutherland1 (+0.1 coldest forecast) and also Normal. SEA_ At -1.9, this will be counted as a shared win for DonS (-1.6) and wxdude64 (-2.2) although a one point late penalty could be used to remove this result from the list of extreme forecasts. It counts as a loss for Roger Smith at -4.3. (four wins for DonS, two for wxdude64, and one for Tom, Roger Smith, RodneyS and Normal; and one loss for Roger Smith (too cold at SEA). ) Eight of nine locations qualify for an extreme forecast, four warmest and four coldest. --------------------------------------------------------- Forecasts for checking scores Actual ________________+2.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.3 __-1.6 _+3.2 _ -5.8 ___ -3.6_ -0.8 _ -1.9 Don Sutherland 1 _____ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 __-1.1 _ +1.8 __ 0.0 ___ -0.8 _+0.1 _ -1.6 BKViking ______________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+1.0 __ -1.4 _+1.2 _+0.6 ___ -0.4 _+0.3 _-1.2 wxdude64 _ (-1%) _____+1.1 _+0.8 _+1.2 __ -1.3 _+0.9 _+0.5 ___ -1.1 _ +1.8 _-2.2 Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+0.5 _+1.5 ____0.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 hudsonvalley21 _______ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.1 __-1.9 _+1.4 _-0.5 ___ -0.2 _+1.0 _ -0.3 so_whats_happening __+0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.6 _+1.5 _ +1.0 ___+0.4 _+1.2 _ -1.0 ___ Consensus ________ +0.8 _+0.7 _+0.5 __-1.3 _+1.2 _+0.2 ___-0.7 _+1.0 _-0.8 RodneyS ______________+0.7 _+0.3 _+0.7 __-0.9 _+2.1 _ -0.7 ___ -1.2 _+0.4 _ -0.8 RJay __________________ +0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __-1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___ +1.0 _+2.5 _+2.5 ___ Normal ______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __0.0 wxallannj _______________-0.4 _-0.5 _-0.7 __ -1.2 _ +1.2 _ -1.6 ___ -0.7 _+1.5 _ +0.4 Tom ____________________-0.9 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 __ -1.5 _ -1.2 _ -1.9 ___ -1.2 _ +0.8 _+0.9 Roger Smith ____________-1.8 _-2.2 _ -3.0 __ -4.5 __0.0 _ +0.2 ___-3.5 _+1.8 _-4.3 ________________________________________________________________________ After the discussion posted in January on max 60 scoring, I wanted to go over how the IAH scores were generated ... scoring boost for IAH (-5.8) _ note scores must be at least the progression level, can only be adjusted for spread up from that level. Forecaster ___ fcst __ raw score __ prog score __ linear ____ recalc ____ gain over raw Tom __________-1.9 ____ 30 _______ 60 ____________ 60 _______ 60 ______ 30 wxallannj _____ -1.6 ____ 24 _______ 54 ____________ 51 _______ 54 ______ 30 RodneyS ______ -0.7 ____ 07 ______ 48 ____________ 39 _______ 48 ______ 41 hudsonv21 ____ -0.5 ____ 05 ______ 42 ____________ 36 _______ 42 ______ 37 DonS, norm ____ 0.0 ____ 00 ______ 36 ____________ 26 _______ 36 ______ 36 R Smith, con ___+0.2 ____-02 _____ 30 _____________23 _______ 30 ______ 30 wxdude64 _____+0.5 ____-05 _____ 24 _____________18 ________24 ______ 24 BKViking _______+0.6 ____-06 _____ 18 _____________16 ________ 18 ______ 18 RJay, swh ______ +1.0 ____-12 _____ 12 _____________ 09 _______ 12 ______ 12 Scotty L ________+1.5 ____-22 _____ 00 _____________00 _______ 06 ______ 06 (scores are recalc up if either raw or linear scores are higher than levels. Scotty L to 06 as prog level unused and prog differential smaller than either raw or linear drop. This will be the format for any other recalc situations from max 60, for example, if RodneyS had predicted -1.5 his raw score would be 22 (not sufficient) but his linear score 49 and that would have replaced 48. If hudsonvalley21 had predicted -1.4 as well as the above, then his raw score would be 20 and his linear score 48 (replacing 42). ... the use of zero for minimum score will be applied only when the forecast at end of progression is further out of step than the parameters, otherwise it will go to the range 01-06. Eleven scoring levels are required for eleven forecasters, ten spaces between levels means progression is by 6 pt units). Note also for practical purposes raw scores below zero are zero when they occur in a non-boost situation. This was factored into "gain over raw score" above, 00 was used not the negative raw scores that generate the linear progression for fairness.

Very low thickness values by Monday morning, could see near zero F in rural nw MD and teens in the cities, over a fresh 3-5 inch snow pack. Highs only in the 20s to near 30F on Monday.