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Roger Smith

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  1. Roger Smith
    Years with significant heat in early June sometimes see a return to that heat on several more occasions (e.g., 1919, 1934) but another outcome is a rather cool mid-summer and more heat in September (1895, 1925). I suspect this will turn into a relatively hot summer with a few cool and wet intervals, in this climate, harder to avoid east coast ridge building over the anomalously warm NAtl. It is also quite warm out here and pushing up a bit higher each day to mid-week. My idea for the summer pattern in general is that it may be prone to severe heat waves in central states and the western interior, and that the east will alternate between near average and hot spells with a bit of a westerly rather than south-westerly flow bias which can mean a rather dry regime, but no doubt with a few interruptions.
  2. Roger Smith
    Four Seasons contest 2022-23 __ Spring segment Each season is scored 10 points for high total score, then 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 for 2nd to 7th, and 1 point for anyone else who entered a minimum of 2/3. FORECASTER _________ Winter TOTAL __ Points ____ MAR __ APR __ MAY ___ TOTAL __ Spring Points ___ TOTAL points RJay _________________________1879 _____ 10 _________ 481 ___ 640 ___ 640 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 15 hudsonvalley21 _____________ 1675 _____ 4 ___________476 ___ 648 ___ 700 ____ 1824 ____ 10 ________ 14 ___ Consensus _______________1682 _____ 4.3 ________ 447 ___ 605 ___ 720 ____ 1772 ____6.9 ________ 11.2 DonSutherland1 _____________ 1722 _____ 6 __________ 513 ___ 592 ___ 656 ____ 1761 ____ 5 _________ 11 wxallannj ____________________ 1699 _____ 5 __________ 477 ___ 588 ___ 700 ____ 1765 ____ 6 _________ 11 RodneyS ____________________ 1760 ______7 __________ 463 ___ 528 ___ 552 ____ 1543 ____ 1 __________8 wxdude64 __________________1518 ______ 1 ____________465 ___ 652 ___ 656 ____ 1773 ____ 7 __________8 Roger Smith ________________ 1626 _____ 3 ___________ 271 ___ 552 ___ 586 ____ 1409 ____ 1 __________ 4 Scotty Lightning ___________ 1147 ______ 1 ____________502 ___ 562 ___ 612 ____ 1676 ____ 3 __________ 4 so_whats_happening _______ 1620 _____ 2 ___________ -- --___ -- --___ -- --____ -- -- ____ 0 __________ 2 BKViking ___________________ 1576 ______ 1 ___________ 355 ___ 537 ___ 688 ____ 1580 ____ 1 __________ 2 Tom ________________________ 1545 ______ 1 ___________ -- --___ 591 ___ 690 ____ 1281 ____ 1 __________ 2 Rhino 16 ____________________ -- -- _____ 0 ____________ 389 ___ 630 ___ 656 ____ 1675 ____ 2 _________ 2 ___ Normal _________________ 1076 _____ 1 _____________ 422 ___ 538 ___ 610 ____ 1570 ____ 1 __________ 2 StormchaserChuck _________ 674 (1/3) _ 0 ____________-- --___ 580 ___ 632 ____ 1212 ____ 1 __________ 1
  3. Roger Smith

    June forecast contest open (sent you PM but your box may be full?) -- Roger S

  4. Roger Smith
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +2.8 _+2.5 _+3.5 ___ +3.0 _ +1.5 _+0.7 ___+1.7 _ +0.3 _ +2.2 101 __ 102 __ 100 ____ 101 _ 102 _ 108 ___ 103 _ 119 _ 98
  5. Roger Smith
    If May ends with 1.28" rain it will be 13th driest of 155 (1869-2023) at NYC, the top 20 dry Mays are: Rank ___ Year ____ Prec _01 ____ 1887 ____ 0.34 _02 ____ 1903 ____ 0.50 _03 ____ 1964 ____ 0.57 _04 ____ 1880 ____ 0.62 _05 ____ 1905 ____ 0.72 _06 ____ 1939 ____ 0.89 _07 ____ 1877 ____ 0.95 _08 ____ 1935 ____ 1.05 _09 ____ 1899 ____ 1.09 _10 ____ 1944 ____ 1.18 _11 ____ 1911 _____ 1.25 _12 ____ 1962 ____ 1.26 _13? ___ 2023 ____ 1.28 _t14 _ 1875, 1959 _ 1.33 _16 ____ 1902 ____ 1.35 _17 ____ 1987 ____ 1.45 _18 ____ 1909 ____ 1.47 _19 ____ 2005 ____ 1.48 _20 ____ 1910 ____ 1.49 (21) ____ 1993 ____ 1.56 Median value (rank 78) is 3.56"
  6. Roger Smith
    Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  7. Roger Smith
    Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  8. Roger Smith
    Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  9. Roger Smith
    Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  10. Roger Smith
    Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  11. Roger Smith
    Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  12. Roger Smith
    Forum-wide contest for 2023 tropical seasonal count. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  13. Roger Smith
    Forum-wide tropical seasonal contest in the tropical forum, deadline end of June 4th. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  14. Roger Smith
    A reminder to the usual crew that June temperature forecast contest deadline approaches. Also a general notice to NYC members that a seasonal hurricane season contest is open for entries to June 4th in the tropical forum. Link at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59183-2023-north-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-contest-enter-by-june-4th/
  15. Roger Smith
    Please note, forum season prediction contest closes end of day June 4th (06z June 5, 2023). NOAA forecast is 12-17, 5-9, 1-4 or median 14.5, 7.0, 2.5. UK Met Office not buying into El Nino suppression and predict 20, 11, 5. UA also higher than expert consensus at 19, 9, 5. (I am saying 19, 12, 4 but not an expert) CSU more conservative at 13, 6, 2. TWC saying 15, 7, 3. The contest is here in this sub-forum. I have invited weather nerds from UK and Irish weather forums to enter also.
  16. Roger Smith
    Contest deadline extended to June 4th end of day (06z June 5, 2023). Contest open to members of UK forum Net-weather and Irish weather forum on boards.ie, on separate entry portals (I will list any forecasts submitted here). Same deadlines. National hurricane center says 12-17, 5-9 and 1-4, or 14.5/7.0/2.5 so that will enter contest as "NOAA median" although UK Met Office says 20/11/5. CSU is predicting 13/6/2 and TWC 15/7/3. I will score all of them but ranks will not affect your contest ranks. Edit any forecast already placed in the thread without notice needed, as I will construct a table of entries from what I see on 5th of June.
  17. Roger Smith
    === === <<<< ---- ANNUAL SCORING for JAN-MAY 2023 ---- >>>> === === Best scores for the nine locations are shown with red highlight, best totals for regions in bold. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS RJay _______________________313 _324 _ 335 __ 972 __396 _325 _284__ 1005 __1977 _295 _296 _384 __975 ____2952 DonSutherland1 ___________ 288 _264 _ 314 __ 866 __316 _350 _344 __1010 __1876 __275 _296_382 __ 953 ____2829 hudsonvalley21 ____________271 _270 _ 335 __ 876 __356 _313 _293 __ 962 __1838 __292 _316 _359 __ 967 ____2805 wxallannj __________________ 297 _302 _ 321 __ 920 __ 369 _304 _322__ 995 __1915 _ 285 _318 _274 __877 ____ 2792 ___ Consensus _____________273 _274 _ 325 __872 __329 _282 _303 __ 914 __1786 _ 305 _ 302 _360 __967 ____2753 wxdude64 _________________300 _303 _312 __ 915 __253 _296 _260 __ 809 __1724 __333 _246 _342 __ 921 ____2645 RodneyS __________________ 254 _254 _278 __ 786 __ 195 _269 _318 __ 782 __1568 _ 367 _ 288 _340 __ 995____ 2573 BKViking ___________________276 _272 _303 __ 851 __293 _262 _287 __ 842 __1693 __287 _248 _240 __ 775 ____ 2468 Roger Smith _______________ 268 _226 _264 __ 758 __241 _209 _274 __ 724 __1482 __ 275 _248 _374 __ 897 ____2379 Scotty Lightning ___________213 _236 _290 __ 739 __289 _235 _270 __ 794 __1533 __266 _234 _254 __ 754 ____ 2287 Tom (4/5) __________________225 _230 _247 __ 702 __176 _228 _270 __ 674 __1376 __276 _262 _267 __ 805 _____2181 ___ Normal _________________ 148 _ 176 _210 __534 __ 220 _228 _242 __ 690 __1224 __278 _250 _244 __772 ____ 1996 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __201 _238 _196 ___ 635 ___257 _132 _146 ___535 __ 1170 __238 _240 _238 __ 716 ____1886 Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 174 _174 _200 ___ 548 ___220 _228 _150 ___ 598 __1146 __183 _144 _202 __ 529 ____ 1675 so_whats_happening (2/5) _ 90 _ 82 _ 138 ___ 310 __ 101 _ 41 _ 134 ___ 276 ___ 586 __ 98 __ 96 _ 148 __ 342 ____ 928 rainsucks (1/5) _____________ 42 __32 _ 36 ____ 110 ___ 00 _ 66 _ 48 ____ 114 ___ 224 __ 50 __ 98 __ 84 __ 232 ____ 456 _______________________________________________________ Persistence ________________143 _154 _292 __ 589 ___ 212 _219 _290 __ 721 __1310 __148 _ 310 _ 224 __ 682 ____1992 Best Forecasts * shared with one other forecaster for one month (does not apply to Consensus or Normal, if they qualify, so does the high forecaster score whether tied or not) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent_ c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA__west __ Months RJay _______________________ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____2 ____ 1*___2**____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___ 1 ___0 ____0 DonSutherland1 ___________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 2*____2*____0____2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 2*___0 ____2 _ Jan,Mar hudsonvalley21 ____________0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0^____0 ____1* ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1* _ May (t) wxallannj __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1* _ May (t) ___ Consensus ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 __ May wxdude64 _________________0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 _ Apr RodneyS ___________________1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1* ___ 3 ____0 BKViking __________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Roger Smith _______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 ____1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning ___________1 ____ 1 _____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1* ___0 ___ 0 ____0 Tom (4/5) _________________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____2*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ Normal _________________0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 Stormchaser Chuck (3/5) __2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1* ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____1 _ Feb Rhino16 (3/5) ______________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 so_whats_happening (2/5) _0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 rainsucks (1/5) ____________ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 (hudsonvalley21 has a tied top score for ORD (Mar) before 1 pt reduced by penalty). Shown as 0^ ----------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST SUMMARY So far, 38 of 45 forecasts qualify, 25 of them for warmest, and 13 for coldest ... Jan 6-2, Feb 5-3, Mar 6-3, Apr 5-3, May 3-2 ... 10 of 35 involve a loss where a second ranked forecast has high score. Two of those ten are a shared loss. FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _Apr _May ____ TOTALS _ (adjusted for ties) RJay _________________ 5-0 _ 2-1 _ 2-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0___ 10-1 _______9.5 - 1 StormchaserChuck __ -- --_ 5-1 _ -- --_ 2-2 _ 2-0___ 9-3 _______8.5 - 3 DonSutherland ______ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 3*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 ___ 7-1 _______ 6.5 - 1 RodneyS _____________1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 1-0 ____ 5-0 _______ 5.0 - 0 Scotty Lightning _____0.0 _ 0-0 _ 3-1 _ 0-1* _ 0-0 ___ 3-2 _______ 3.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith _________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _ 1-1*___ 3-1 _______2.5 - 0.5 hudsonvalley21 ______ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _1-0 _ 1*-0 ___ 3-0 _______2.0 - 0 Tom __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0____ 2-0 ______ 1.5 - 0 wxdude64 ___________1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 1-0 _______ 1.0 - 0 wxallannj ____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-1* 0-1* ___ 1-2 ______ 0.5 - 1.0 so_whats_happening _0-0 _0-1 _ -- --_ -- -- _ -- - ___ 0-1 ______ 0.0 - 1 rainsucks _____________ -- --_-- --_-- --_1*-0 _ -- - ___ 1-0 ______ 0.5 - 0 BKViking _____________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 0-0 ______ 0.0 - 0 ===========================================
  18. Roger Smith
    Predict the temperature anomaly (F deg) for these nine locations, relative to their 1991-2020 averages: DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and also add on your forecasts for their highest summer maximum readings (annual). Deadline 06z June 1st, with small late penalties (summer maximum contest will close mid-June if anyone wanted to enter later)
  19. Roger Smith
    28.42" of rain fell at one location in Guam. GFS continues to stall Mawar east of Taiwan, but latest track across N Pac is closer to Gulf of Alaska.
  20. Roger Smith
    If the GFS is correct, Mawar tracks west towards Luzon and stalls east of Taiwan around 29th, then is caught up in the subtropical jet and moves all the way across the Pacific around 35-40N to slam into the west coast of the U.S. by about June 8-10. That would dump a lot of subtropical heat into the circulation and might be a signal of a very hot spell in the central and eastern U.S. by mid June.
  21. Roger Smith
    Will go with 19/12/4. Lots of entries, thanks for entering. Edit at your pleasure until I post a notice of final call for forecasts around June 1st to 3rd depending on situation. If I have not posted the notice, I have not copied your forecast (have been reading them). So no need to post a notice of edit.
  22. Roger Smith
    My location is approx 200-300 miles south of the fires in n BC and n/c Alberta. We had some smoke here during the recent hot spell but now that the flow is more south to southwest (and cool/wet today) our air quality has improved. For several days Edmonton Alberta has had "dangerous" air quality readings like we had here in summer 2021 after the heat dome and lightning caused fires in our region. Some rain is now falling on some of the fires so the volume of smoke being generated should gradually decrease. A lot of these fires are a long way from any human habitation and are being contained rather than actively suppressed due to their vast extent but some closer to Edmonton are more of a direct threat to settlements. After a very cold March and first half of April, as soon as your weather turned cooler ours became very warm and the anomaly has been in the +6F range since about April 20th. We had readings near 90F for several days last week. Normal around here in mid-May is about 65F. Today it is only 52F with clouds scudding over after a steady rain ended. This is the first really cool day we have had since the change of pattern.
  23. Roger Smith
    Final scoring for May 2023 Scoring is based on the end-of-month anomalies in the previous post. FORECASTER _________________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL ___ Consensus _________________ 70 _ 94 _ 72 __ 236 __ 70 _ 92 _ 88 __ 250 __ 486 __ 82 _ 96 _ 56 __ 234 __ 720 wxallannj _______________________ 76 _ 86 _ 46 __ 208 __ 74 _ 92 _ 94 __ 260 __ 468 __ 90 _ 80 _ 62 __ 232 __ 700 hudsonvalley21 ________________ 62 _ 98 _ 62 __ 222 __ 68 _ 86 _ 98 __ 252 __ 474 __ 96 _ 90 _ 40 __ 226 __ 700 Tom ____________________________ 72 _ 92 _ 48 __ 212 __ 52 _ 96 _ 98 __ 246 __ 458 __ 82 _ 94 _ 56 __ 232 __ 690 BKViking ________________________78 _ 86 _ 50 __ 214 __ 66 _ 86 _ 92 __ 244 __ 458 __ 86 _ 96 _ 48 __ 230 __ 688 Rhino16 ________________________ 62 _ 82 _ 88 __ 232 __ 66 _ 96 _ 84 __ 246 __ 478 __ 66 _ 66 _ 46 __ 178 __ 656 wxdude64 _____________________ 64 _ 94 _ 72 __ 230 __ 70 _100 _ 80 __ 250 __ 480 __ 74 _ 46 _ 56 __ 176 __ 656 DonSutherland1 ________________ 72 _ 92 _ 80 __ 244 __ 54 _ 84 _ 94 __ 232 __ 476 __ 58 _ 54 _ 68 __ 180 __ 656 RJay ___________________________ 56 _ 70 _ 86 __ 212 __ 84 _ 82 _ 66 __ 232 __ 444 __ 60 _ 74 _ 62 __ 196 __ 640 StormchaserChuck1 ___________ 20 _ 54 _ 98 __ 172 __ 96 _ 42 _ 56 __ 194 __ 366 __100 _ 86 _ 80 __266 __ 632 Scotty Lightning _______________ 36 _ 70 _ 86 __ 192 __ 84 _ 52 _ 56 __ 192 __ 384 __ 80 _ 96 _ 52 __ 228 __ 612 ___ Normal _____________________ 56 _ 90 _ 66 __ 212 __ 64 _ 82 _ 86 __ 232 __ 444 __ 60 _ 74 _ 32 __ 166 __ 610 Roger Smith ____________________94 _ 64 _ 26 ___ 184 __ 10 _ 64 _ 94 __ 168 __ 352 __ 80 _ 56 _ 98 __234 __ 586 RodneyS _______________________ 98 _ 92 _ 62 __ 252 __ 00 _ 84 _ 70 __ 154 __ 406 __ 78 _ 50 _ 18 ___ 146 __ 552 - - - - - ___ Persistence _________________ 00 _ 12 _ 90 __ 102 __ 96 _ 76 _ 76 __ 248 __ 350 __ 60 _ 96 _ 00 __ 156 __ 506 _________________________________________________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (-2.2) a win for RodneyS (-2.1) and a loss for Roger Smith (-2.5). NYC, ATL, DEN, PHX no extreme forecasts. IAH (-0.7) a win for Hudsonvalley21 and Tom (-0.6) and a loss for wxallannj and Roger Smith (-1.0). BOS (+1.7) and ORD (+1.8) StormchaserChuck wins with warmest forecasts. SEA (+3.4) is a win for Roger Smith (+3.5). =======================================
  24. Roger Smith
    I would be surprised if it fell and nobody mentioned it (unless I missed seeing it) but the NYC record low for May 18th is one of the more recent (1973 41F) and was followed by a daily max of 59 F but the record low maximum was 53F in 1881, the second consecutive low max (17th was 52F and tied in 1915). Those occurred just five and six days after a record high max in 1881 of 93 (May 12) and I think this may be the fastest such turnaround with another similar one in early October of 1881 (88F Sep 28 and record low max 50F min 35F Oct 5th). The opposite sequence (record low max to high max) took only three days in June 1952 (62 22nd, 99 25th). Since the 41F on May 18, 1973, the lowest minimum at NYC was 42F in 1976 with 43F in 1983, 2002 (46F 2003).
  25. Roger Smith
    Apparently its status is un-named subtropical storm. Let's say for clarity we will count it and assume they include it in the count so we will go with a current value of 1/0/0 for your predictions. If there is some clarification of this before contest closes, I will certainly give people the option of adjusting their forecasts by 1. For now, assume the official count will start at 1/0/0 before named storms are added. I will post some "expert" forecast values before the contest closes to entries. So far they look a bit lower than many recent seasons (CSU is 13, 6, 2). TWC is at 15, 7, 3.
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