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nrgjeff

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Everything posted by nrgjeff

  1. nrgjeff
    Classic Valley warm nose, lol! Ice storm Piedmont. You know, I'll take rain over ice any time. Maybe Chattanooga isn't so bad.
  2. nrgjeff
    All the silly NWP precip algorithms aside, it's a fairly simple forecast. One inch of liquid qpf falling in below freezing air. Soundings favor freezing rain over sleet - not even close with that deep mild warm nose. I figure ice accumulations on trees and power lines averages 1/3 inch. That's much lower than those algos, but major ice storm criteria (>quarter). Half inch amounts will be common. That's a damaging ice storm. Any convective bands gets three-quarters which is truly crippling, but would be isolated to a county or two. Long duration all freezing rain events, lots of overrunning before last wave, are classic major ice storms. When was that awful Volunteer Electric ice storm, 2015? Several years ago I believe. Bottom line: First major ice storm in several years, this time West. We dodged a few bullets with scattered impacts a few years ago. I'm afraid this one is going to verify major. Pattern recognition is classic. NWP is far more consistent than the dodges a few years ago. This may be my last post of the event.
  3. nrgjeff
    ECMWF has much less frozen QPF out there vs GFS forever overrunning. Hopefully the Euro wins this one - impactful but not GFS major. At any rate this'll probably be my only post this week as work gets exceptionally busy. ECMWF weeklies are out and trend with CFS/GEFS weeklies. Cold through the middle of Feb. Too bad we can't buy a proper storm track or temperature profile. Perfect compliment to my sports weekend!
  4. nrgjeff
    Cold and dry down here. I see few chances of snow southeast Tenn. Hopefully most days are sunny. Since weather is boring AS I'll be up late not waiting for models... but waiting for spreads and MLs on games like Tennessee at Texas and Kentucky at Kansas.
  5. nrgjeff
    I have little to add for tomorrow because I'm clearly not involved. For the Feb. 5-ish storm the GFS and ECMWF are about as close together as Russia and Ukraine negotiators. Hey, at least we're all still talking! Day 8+ Looking ahead seems to be some agreement in a warm Northern Plains cool Southeast US signal deeper into Feb. First 7-10 days of the month that's still cold enough here, before source region concerns build.
  6. nrgjeff
    The real question of the day.. Tennessee will almost certainly beat Florida tonight. Will the Vols cover the spread? UPDATE: The question of Feb. GFS gets Chattanooga good snow almost on the exact two year anniversary.
  7. nrgjeff
    East Asia pressure charts are bullish for the Southeast US. ADDITION: @Carvers Gap longer post this page is rock solid. February is more susceptible to the NW jogs (esp La Nina) with SER attempts. Sharp blocking would keep such SER attempts modest. Honestly don't want any SER for southeast Tenn. Just the seasonal jet stream less South (Jan pattern in Feb) would help. From https://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml
  8. nrgjeff
    Maybe we can get some severe weather ahead of that front.
  9. nrgjeff
    Just like with humans, there's always one NWP run sabre rattling March 1993 or worse.
  10. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    That's a good recipe for a Plains trough and severe weather in the South.
  11. nrgjeff
    Much can happen when one thinks the clock is running out. See BUF at KC. Also synoptic discussion last page or two. Sharper ridge West and deeper trough OV would swing the low closer for us. We'll see. I'll take an order of Feb. 2020 Chattanooga snow and KC Superbowl Champs!
  12. nrgjeff
    Clock runs out January 31. Medium range all points to warmer definitely by the 2nd week of Feb. Probably warms up the first week of Feb. MJO is blowing up in the eastern Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent bound. La Nina SER will go! Yeah blocking lasts longer than progged. But it manifests in -PNA will keep the Rockies cold and snowy - good skiing. I am not just being cynical. Winter clock runs out January 31. Next This week appears the storm track is to our south. Strong cold pattern at winter's climo peak is usually more a Deep South signal than our signal. We'd need to get something while the pattern is in transition. We all know how that'll go. It'll cut up the Apps and blank the Valley. See y'all in the severe weather thread. I'm throwing in the towel.
  13. nrgjeff
    As I watch former Kansas player De Sousa play for Chattanooga I think of how badly the NCAA screwed him (and KU) to make some sort of point. Spare the super-majors like UNC (fake classes) but hit one just big enough to make a story (KU). So happy for D'Sousa doing well at UTC and he's the leading scorer in the Southern Conference. F* the NCAA - nazi commies against athletes!
  14. nrgjeff
    Yes @jaxjagman a -ABNA could keep the Southeast US colder than just one week in Feb. I'm still for a mild back half of Feb. However one more week of chances (after the rest of January) mathematically increases snow odds for everyone here. I'll withhold comment about next week until something is within 3 days. Well maybe 36 hours is safer.
  15. nrgjeff
    Nature is trolling me after a warm headed post earlier in the week. @Carvers Gap see above, lol!
  16. nrgjeff
    Auburn got it done on CBS! Did they get in? Camping out for basketball takes me back to college, and some cold days in Lawrence, Kansas. And since UT Chatt didn't cover the spread, I'll double down on Kansas. Not necessarily responsible gaming, but it seems like the thing to do, ha. LSU at Tennessee should be another barn burner. Great to see all this excellent basketball across the SEC!
  17. nrgjeff
    Tuesday continues to be a boundary layer question south of I-40. Rain Chatty. Next Friday is... I'll continue to bad mouth the pattern (contrarian play) and jawbone in the severe thread.
  18. nrgjeff
    CFS and GFS weeklies are both trending toward the ECMWF weeklies, in that the second week of February may return to warmer than normal. Depending on the amount of toughing in the West and Plains -PNA? it will be time to think about early season severe weather and storm chasing. Waiting for the Plains has not been rewarding recent years. Chase everything in Dixie! Barring a sharply colder forecast change over the weekend, I'm about done in the winter threads. Chatty doesn't have a snowball in hell prayer early next week. Look for me in this thread. La Nina! Tee up early and often Southern severe!!
  19. nrgjeff
    If the US would drill more that'd be less of a problem. Also export to Germany to fend off Russia. Then replace gas fired generation by re-opening coal plants. Or fast track Nuclear. Finally more pumped storage. National and Economic Security require all of the above! Thoughts are my own.
  20. nrgjeff
    Yeah I'm going to have to reject that ice forecast in the utility business. Just no! I bet the main January thread is depressing. Do I even want to look?
  21. nrgjeff
    GFS has performed better this winter. It's weeklies have also beat those of the Euro. Finally, though more anecdotal, GFS performs better with severe. American coding might be best for American weather, esp niche like tornadoes. Yeah I'll take a blend of the 12Z EC and 12Z GFS please. Could Chattanooga be that lucky? No don't answer that!
  22. nrgjeff
    Anyway @Uncle Nasty I'm still in Chattanooga. Obs you can just see what @dwagner88 posts. He's usually first and I do not repeat since we're 3 blocks apart. Sports news Kansas failed to cover the spread. Got the moneyline but missed the spread. Tennessee rescued my night! Profitable!! Sports betting is going way better than stock picking. Heck it's all gambling. Go with what works!
  23. nrgjeff
    Like your stealth snow chances @John1122 the moral of the story is live on the Upper Plateau. Also for storm chasing tbh. Saturday I'm throwing in the towel. Tuesday* is another chance of either a northwest jog, or another offshore debacle. *written before the Euro
  24. nrgjeff
    Let's be honest, straight-forward, and frank.. 12Z suite overall needs a train wreck gif. However the GFS did already tick northwest relative to itself. EC cave is epic. Canadian and UK, smh. All that griping aside, and about 1/3 of ensemble members are better - deeper 552 into Alabama and cooperative southern stream 570. Still four days out. I'd say another 24 hours for a northwest jog or jump, 36 hours max. Otherwise punt.
  25. nrgjeff
    Need the back shortwave to be stronger out of Texas Friday. Lead post-frontal wave Thursday night (after Wednesday night front) is forecast to be fairly equal on the GFS. EC brushes it off, favoring the back wave developing a more robust storm. Here in Chattanooga we'll take dry air bust risk over warm nose bust risk 99/100 times. Of course this will be that 1 time we bust dry, haha!
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