Terpeast

It’s very likely too late for a lowland snow, but I’m interested in the AIFS test case, too.

And yet he understands more about the climate and its trends than most mets and atmos scientists do.

I’m not sure if it will be even as long as one paragraph!

10 days. Last 3 are warm, and that’s going to verify for sure. Maybe even warmer Crap, i was using metric (been overseas for too long) here’s the fahrenheit version lol

As a rule of thumb, if I don’t see cold/BN temperatures in all of the last 3 days within my apple weather app, we’re not seeing cold anytime soon. Following this ^^ rule would have been much more accurate than models.

We may hit 70 next week

Of course, I’ll be out of the country most of April. So it’ll be a fun month for everyone here.

The upside was much higher, yes… but in the back of my mind, my greatest fear was a warmer version of a 1972-73, which was the only match if you looked at the PDO and ENSO. There was always a non-zero chance for a ratter, and to be fair, most of our subforum did avoid a rat. We just fell short of climo and way short of the upside, where our expectations were.

Used a linear trend from the 60s to date, and then applied a warmer temp correction on the 2006 snowfall to today’s climate based on that trend. One one hand, 2006 wasn’t that long ago so the correction may not have been more than a degree or so. Otoh, linear trend by definition doesn’t account for nonlinearity nor any acceleration in warming. So like I said, I’d take the under on my own numbers. Could just have been 3” of slop instead of a foot+

Yeah, its over. Not enough cold air to make something happen outside of interier northern New England or maybe at 3,000+ Don’t worry, I’ll stick around for severe weather season!

They discontinued the op and now consider the control run as the new op. The AIFS is their new AI-based model. Will be interesting to see how it performs.

IAD got 8" (the best banding was to the east over Fairfax county through Columbia, MD) and I used two methods to figure what it would be today in a warmer climate. One still 8", and another drops it to 4-5". I'd take the under on 8" though.

It absolutely can. 2022-23 is looking like a decent analog match. Nothing is off the table

near total lack of cold air except siberia

I didn’t already know this. Good intel, thanks!

Yep. I’m working on the reward points now, should be able to get the new member bonus that’ll probably pay for our flights.

Living vicariously through you, though l’m starting to think you got more than you bargained for. Hell of an adventure. You’re getting pummeled! Keep posting pics and hope you get power back soon.

That’s what I’m thinking! Fly to Spokane, link up with my bro, and drive up across the border

The PDO isn’t the end all be all. It was solidly positive during 97-98. Carver’s Gap in his TN forum said that we may be at the beginning of a -AO/-NAO cycle, but I thought we’d be going into an extended period of +NAO given where we are heading into the solar cycle the next 5-8 years or so.

If it were just me, I’d do a pure snow chase with a last minute drive up to new england the night before. But with the family, probably best to combine with something else like visiting family and/or a ski trip. Some stuff for kids to do, too. Love Steamboat, but been there 3x. Feels like been there done that want something new.

Safe bet yes, and a very expensive one at that. If it’s possible to get a last minute deal at Tahoe, I’m all ears. otoh, I can go to Spokane for basically free using points, and if I chase to the cascades, it’ll probably be half the cost of Tahoe anyway

We’ll probably have to chase next year. I will be keeping an eye on where the best places are going to be.

A look ahead to the 2024-25 winter... not for our own backyards, but WHERE to travel and chase (and when): New CanSIPs just came out, and it performed well on a smoothed/seasonal basis for this winter. It showed a wet first half, then a slightly drier second half, and a mostly warm CONUS with near normal/slightly BN southeast. So here's what it is showing for next winter now... 1) Moderate-strong La Nina, basinwide or even a little bit modoki. MJO should be active in the eastern IO through the MC (phases 3, 4, and 5). Negative PDO signature appears obvious, with that marine heatwave off Japan still ongoing and no signs of ceasing. 2) Standard La Nina h5 configuration enhanced by overall warming with a solid +AO/+NAO (or lack of blocking overall). Take away that -NAO block in December 2022 in the 2022-23 winter, then you'll get a good idea of what this winter is going to be like. 3) Again, a mostly warm CONUS just like this year, except the warmest anomalies are displaced south across New Mexico, Texas, and through the Tennessee Valley. (I wonder what raindancewx has to say about his backyard having the warmest anomalies). However, the west coast and Pacific Northwest are depicted to have near to slightly below normal temperatures. 4) Opposite to this winter, the south and southeast are depicted to be drier than normal. It would not surprise me if we got a hot and dry summer, with drought conditions redeveloping across the east. Wettest anomalies are shown over the Pacific Northwest, and with normal to slightly below normal temps, the mountains in that area could be the best places to chase. My brother lives in Spokane, and they may be set for a great/historic winter next year. Seriously considering an extended two-week visit there, renting a car, staying with him for 4-5 days, then drive to Montana's rockies for a few days, then back. Or if the Cascades are about to get a big one, we could chase there instead. Again, this is to show you where to plan your chases for next winter, not for snow in your backyards.

I don’t think we’re in a drought anymore, Will. I’m ready for sunny 60s/70s. Let’s see what severe weather season brings. Summer likely to be hotter and drier than the last few.

What does your method say?