Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Makes sense. And late jan into feb is right in our wheelhouse. I wasn’t even expecting a HECS to occur before that, but it will be nice to catch a couple of minor/moderate events before late Jan
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Only thing I’m checking is when we shift to a colder pattern - latest models show this on the 29th. I think that’s been consistent and no can kick, right?
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It can work if a wave pushes off eastward towards us from a W trough that undercuts the -epo/-nao
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My ignore list just got longer
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Yeah I was thinking the same, but sub 30 degree here. Lots of 24s, 26s, etc. 26 low here this morning.
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High of 41, blustery
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Have to agree there. They seemed to have nailed Dec
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You’ll be fine. You’ll be back for the big one if its gonna happen
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Loving where the ridge is on the GFS. I agree with you on the NAO though.
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Ensembles still look good for a pattern change on the 28th. Still no sign of a can kick
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Nothing here, just cold. Glad to see others getting flurries and snow showers though!
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No expert on GLAAM... but a lot of this is driven by the pac jet, no? So +GLAAM going towards neutral means that we'll see a bit of a retraction in the pac jet?
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2.57” total in Ashburn
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Just drove from Tysons to Ashburn, pouring. 1.2” here. Awful
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Low 39.9, now 43 and foggy
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Even if International Falls is +10, we can still hover near normal https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58651-mid-to-long-range-discussion-~-2023/?do=findComment&comment=7085868
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I think it was probably me that triggered raindance into his ongoing 2 month tirade against 2009. 2009-10 came up as the best match in my analog set, but it still wasn’t a great match. I was clear that 2023-24 is going to be on an island of its own, and that 2009-10 just happened to be the best looking horse out of a poorly matched bunch overall.
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Low of 28.8 before the warm up
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And ensembles showing a colder look for entire NA. Canada at +5 instead of +15. Could be smoothing, but still a good sign
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I remember that. Maybe they do this retroactively
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Latest MEI is now 0.8, if anyone still cares. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ My research shows that the MA had its snowiest winters when the MEI falls between 0.5 and 1.2, and then turns much milder and less snowy once the MEI exceeds 1.2.
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Yeah I was thinking the same. Not like Dec 2015 at all.
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It still is, but the abrupt changes only tell us that the models either have no idea what’s going to happen, or they are starting to key in on something.
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540 line shifting from canada to south VA. Big shift still has a pos tilt to it though
