Terpeast

29/21, still clear skies

Might not change what happens upstairs at 850 but could increase period of icing/sleet. Or if rates are heavy, someone east of the blue ridge could get thumped

Lets see what the 0z mesos look like

A good step

32/21 already

I'm at 37.8, and 10 minutes NW of the airport as the crow flies.

18z 3k nam thermals colder between 11-16z tomorrow

It's getting closer. EC looks mint. Before I was watching the 15-20 period, but if that FROPA on the 13th becomes something different in a better way, that window becomes a little larger. 13-20. And the 13th is only 8 days away

Still clear skies over here. 39/22. If we can hold off the clouds until well after sunset, maybe we can enhance the in situ airmass

Good, now let’s see the GEFS do the same

Very possible at D7-8

6z had nothing in E Loudoun right? 2” line back over me now. Let’s hope its the start of a good trend with NW AR seeing a nice surprise in their backyards ETA it’s 39.6 here. Sunny, dews at 21

It could swing back our way if the 850 LLJ was overforecasted and the qpf is heavier on the front end. But i’m not exactly holding my breath. It would be a nice surprise.

Looking at soundings, probably

Yea, I've been ignoring the GEM, even the ensembles. Biased way too cold

All ens models agree on a colder window between Jan 15 and Jan 20. 850mb temps will be below normal during those 5-6 days. Now the question is, can we get a well-timed wave passing over us within that window? Probably not at the beginning since that'll be the FROPA bringing colder air. But can it happen in the middle or at the end? I don't see a discrete SS wave in the 24h precip anomaly nor MSLP anomaly panels... at least not yet. Too far out to answer that question for now.

This is one of those events where we don't really know what's going to happen until the precip actually starts coming down.

So would I. This has morphed into a wintry mix event with that warm layer at 850mb. Let's hope the southerly winds are less strong than forecast so we could hold off the changeover.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of a coating to an inch, and ice accumulations of a light glaze.* WHERE...Stafford, Eastern Loudoun and Northwest Prince William Counties.* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation is expected to begin as snow and sleet between 7 and 10 AM. Precipitation will change to freezing rain between 10 AM and 1 PM, then rain after 1 PM. Precipitation is expected to end during the early evening.

Lets hope it plays out exactly like this. The weaker SPV should help, and the 4-6 convection should fade by the end of the month or sooner. what really shocked and puzzled me is that -VP anomalies were stuck over 7/8 for 6 months, and then suddenly it shifted and now there’s suppression over 7/8/1 despite record warm ssts in nino 4

0 line 850 keeps jumping around on the 3k

It counts. I have ice in the creek behind my house

It’s not typical, it should be colder or neutral there. The loudest person in the room is being drowned out by other noises But if/when convection quiets over the MC, that is our chance

By the time the MJO runs its course through 4-6, it’ll be late Jan. If it doesn’t reload back at 4, we still have a chance. But with that rug pull on tomorrow’s storm, I’m not so sure about above normal snowfall this year. Could still happen with 1 well timed wave with just enough cold air. We do have that STJ going for us.

That’s what I was saying the other day about the MJO. We don’t want tropical convection too strong in the MC.