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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  2. Kmlwx
    Been getting plenty of baking sun here in Colesville. I do think mesoanalysis does seem to "lag" just a little bit sometimes. We'll see how it looks in an hour or so.
  3. Kmlwx
    SPC mesoanalysis shows DCAPE isn't that high - take a look at the SBCAPE values down in E NC
  4. Kmlwx
    Think the "dying" activity moving in now could do two very different things...perhaps they cloud us over and tamp down instability...ruining any storms later. OR maybe they setup some temperature boundaries which could focus storms later.
  5. Kmlwx
    That's the only activity that looks remotely interesting for the moment. Will see how this stuff looks as it heads into Loudoun - but pretty unimpressive thus far. That cell you mentioned might end up being what the 6z NAM showed with the UH track - but perhaps a little further south than forecast.
  6. Kmlwx
    I'm betting that stuff towards Front Royal/along the Blue Ridge is the main show. Should see it start to grow/intensify as it comes off the higher elevations. May be more stuff later - but that should be the "big storm" potential. Lots of sun!
  7. Kmlwx
    Mesoscale discussion for all the way up in NY/N NJ/NE PA. Nothing for us yet.
  8. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to mix dews down into the mid 60s in spots. My dewpoint still has lowered a bit (to around 70) - but still think mid 60s may be a reach.
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm seeing some blue skies around now.
  10. Kmlwx
    FV3 (0z run) looks abysmal for storm chances for many this afternoon. ARW and ARW2 look a bit better but not spectacular. HRDPS looks splotchy but passable for now. Yet another day of model solutions all over the map.
  11. Kmlwx
    Worth noting that as usual, the HRRR is mixing dews down into the lower to mid 60s in many areas this afternoon. NAM nest (6z run, at least) keeps most areas in the 70+ range. Despite this, the HRRR still fires t'storms across the area but without the supercharged UH swath across the Central Maryland area. I could be wrong, of course - but given the moist airmass in place - I really don't think we are going to mix down 10 degrees on the dews. My PWS (accuracy questionable, of course) is showing a dew of 74.5 right now. It may come down some - but I think 68-70 is far more likely when storms fire versus 62 as shown on the HRRR. We could still fail from a stable layer, lack of forcing, or countless other ways - but I like our chances better today as a whole than yesterday.
  12. Kmlwx
    I honestly just want to see if we can do an region-wide linear storm mode ever again. I know we've had some stuff blow up south of the area that's been pretty widespread - but I just miss the days of a squall (even if not over severe limits) going from NW to SE or W to E across the entire area. Splotchy severe seems to be the reigning champion here for a while.
  13. Kmlwx
    I saw some sunny breaks this morning while on the road. Pesky patch of clouds...let's see how this plays out.
  14. Kmlwx
    Given that I won't be at home during that time - mark my words it will happen now.
  15. Kmlwx
    Can't believe I forgot about that one - would tend to agree.
  16. Kmlwx
    Really June 2012 may have been the last truly area-wide significant severe event. Any one location has had other occurrences since then (would have to look at specific dates) - maybe 2016 had a few good area-wide events?
  17. Kmlwx
    Seems we will continue to wait for our once in a decade (or longer) alignment of EML, shear etc. I'd even settle for a non-EML robust cold pool event.
  18. Kmlwx
    Strong source of lift (ex: defined frontal passage) likely would have made up for poor mid-level lapse rates - but seems today we have neither of those
  19. Kmlwx
    I haven't looked at any soundings - but given the high SBCAPE - I'd assume it's a cap or not a defined source of lift. Lame day so far.
  20. Kmlwx
    Yeah - it's clear on radar but it doesn't seem like an outflow boundary - interesting!
  21. Kmlwx
    Let's hope it's right
  22. Kmlwx
    Poured for a few mins at the Baysox game. Looks like many places are getting wet!
  23. Kmlwx
    Meso discussion is about what would be expected. It's SOUPY out there. Definitely back to typical DC summer conditions.
  24. Kmlwx
    and the slight risk is gone. I really hate to be one to criticize SPC...but the other day they added a hatched hail area and subsequently removed it. Today they have us in marginal, bump us to slight, and then trim the slight way back again. With more and more people directly consuming SPC outlooks...we can no longer make the excuse of "it's not even for public eyes unless they go looking for it" - this is very public knowledge now. They should have just kept us at marginal all the way until confidence was higher. Rant over...but this is 2nd time in recent days/weeks.
  25. Kmlwx
    HRRR seems to think the storms will make it roughly to the Chesapeake before petering out. FV3 (12z run) really doesn't have much for most of us. It's still anyone's guess...but I think the SPC expansion of the slight risk into the area is probably wise. It's pretty cloudy here in Central Maryland - but certainly moist...73+ degrees for the dewpoint IMBY right now. I'm guessing we will overperform simply because I have baseball tickets for tonight
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