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Kmlwx

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  1. Kmlwx
    92.7 here (the high so far and currently)
  2. Kmlwx
    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 171627Z - 171830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE DAMAGING-WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, TO THE EAST OF AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY/PA AND WV. A SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE AN MCV EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WV TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. CUMULUS IS GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM EAST-CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHEAST NY, AND A GENERAL INCREASING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK (AS NOTED ON REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS), BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE INCREASING ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH TIME. MODESTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME, WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN BE SUSTAINED. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER THE DAMAGING-WIND THREAT. ..DEAN/HART.. 07/17/2024 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LWX...
  3. Kmlwx
    No appreciable changes to the latest SPC outlook.
  4. Kmlwx
    MCVs are notoriously sneaky for amping up severe chances. They just have to be timed correctly and take a good path for us. But they can add a little "boost" to our odds in an otherwise less favorable environment.
  5. Kmlwx
    Many of the CAMs this morning seem to wait until E of 95 to get things going. Also, almost every model skunks decent swaths of the area...should be expected with convection - but seems there will be some bad shaftings.
  6. Kmlwx
    The NAM nest is pretty good too. We'll see....
  7. Kmlwx
    Amateur/gut answer is that it's simply more humid in the summer versus the winter - thus more humidity to overmix out. We might not notice it as much (or at all) when the dewpoints are in the teens versus the 70s. But I could be totally wrong.
  8. Kmlwx
    And also it's a WATCH not a WARNING. The literal purpose of a watch is to indicate that the criteria are possible, not occurring or imminent. Urban flooding is definitely an ever-growing problem in the cities and urban corridor.
  9. Kmlwx
    45%+ showing on the the CSU MLP for today. SPC holds us at slight but does mention a bowing structure possible - too many uncertainties.
  10. Kmlwx
    Storming - all sub severe IMBY but has cooled the temp down to 80 now and still dropping. Dewpoint in the mid 70s so very soupy still. Let's see what the threat tomorrow ends up being.
  11. Kmlwx
    90.0 still with a heat index of over 98. Yuck!
  12. Kmlwx
    And that's why the SPC folks are the guys that get paid! You can see on LWX radar the outflow from the WV activity and then increasing activity ahead of it - just like they indicated was possible in their mesoscale discussion.
  13. Kmlwx
    big blunder by AlertMontgomery @Eskimo Joe - it just sent out a message for a warning in the CTP WFO.
  14. Kmlwx
    And it does show a 101 at 16:03
  15. Kmlwx
    http://www.iadasos.org/IAD/index.html
  16. Kmlwx
    https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/2407161836.acus11.html
  17. Kmlwx
    Yeah one was out a little bit before it was issued way earlier.
  18. Kmlwx
    Possible that George BM was looking at the IAD ASOS live page. Might have gone up and then back down.
  19. Kmlwx
    Poor mid-level lapse rates/warm air aloft. Surface heat does not always equate to good instability for storms sadly.
  20. Kmlwx
    The RAP run on the SPC mess site gets DCAPE over the DC area to 1500!
  21. Kmlwx
    The CU field to the west has grown. There are some cells forming - yes they could/likely will struggle - but if a storm manages to cook it could get quite strong. DCAPE is quite strong and in the 1100-1300 range.
  22. Kmlwx
    99.5 after touching 100.2! Dewpoint has fallen a smidge but it's still brutal out there at above 70.
  23. Kmlwx
    Was just going to post the same thing. The CU field looks to be agitating as they say.
  24. Kmlwx
    Wunderground website map shows a few PWSs right in my neighborhood that are 100+ (even 105!) Not sure I buy those...but maybe.
  25. Kmlwx
    Assuming a wayward cloud doesn't go overhead I think I can do triple digits today. Up to 98.2 - but that is back from my high of 99.0. Dew is still holding up in the 73-74 range.
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