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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Lately it seems like the first REALLY refreshing air masses don't show up until well into October lol
  2. Kmlwx
    Latest HRRR sucks horribly.
  3. Kmlwx
    NAM nest rolling in now is weaker and HRRR seems less enthusiastic as well.
  4. Kmlwx
    The usually stingy HRRR is actually semi-decent - maybe not for severe but storms across a decent chunk of the area. Of course there will be deadzones and jackpots. CAMs vary in coverage and intensity.
  5. Kmlwx
    Little signal at Day 8 for CSU-MLP
  6. Kmlwx
    1999! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd
  7. Kmlwx
    It will be interesting to see what the tropics do once they wake up in mid-August and beyond. Of course it's always low odds, but if it's as busy as the experts expect - would think something either gives us remnants from a Gulf strike or maybe this is the year an Isabel or similar returns.
  8. Kmlwx
    I feel like it's going to take a tropical system or strong remnants to get us out of this "funk" - other than the big tornado day this has been an exceedingly calm season IMO. I'm a big proponent of the "rubber band effect" though. Whenever we break the boredom it will be significant in nature.
  9. Kmlwx
    There's a westward moving outflow boundary that might trigger more activity as it heads west.
  10. Kmlwx
    Low of 70.5 and that's where I'm sitting right now. Dew in the mid 60s feels worlds better than 75+
  11. Kmlwx
    DC special slight on Wednesday? LOL
  12. Kmlwx
    Classic lol
  13. Kmlwx
    Me too. I mean mid-level lapse rates of course sucked - but my dewpoint hasn't dropped below 70 all day. Just one of those days, I guess. I don't even think I got rain that could classify as "heavy" Seems we'll have a boring stretch now.
  14. Kmlwx
    Guarantee you it's going to blow up east of the metros for like Southern Maryland etc.
  15. Kmlwx
    Looks pretty tame and lame.
  16. Kmlwx
    Interesting warning from LWX for MoCo and vicinity. The warning itself tilts slightly south of east (SLIGHTLY) but the warning storm motion is north of east..which leads the storm motion markers to leave the warning box to the north.
  17. Kmlwx
    The MoCo section might be gusting out...hoping for reenergizing of the line.
  18. Kmlwx
    Lightning on this stuff hasn't been particularly prolific based on the GOES lightning mapper and ENTLN data. Additionally, I haven't seen any really nice velocity scans - best velocity seems to be in the northern warning so far - but mostly subsevere if anything. I don't see any pronounced outflow outrunning the line yet on the LWX radar - that's one failure mode that can cause storms to "skip" over some locales.
  19. Kmlwx
    Echo tops have been gradually increasing along the line. Assuming the 20z WoFS will hold serve given the line is developing nicely now. Doesn't look like any jaw dropping wind on the line yet - but will be interested to see how it comes off the higher terrain.
  20. Kmlwx
    You can see on radar various areas where the storms may be trying to bow a bit. QLCS/LEWP-esque in nature.
  21. Kmlwx
    19:30z WoFS looks great for a big chunk of the area.
  22. Kmlwx
    19z WoFS ensemble members are all very consistent with bringing that line east. Many of them kind of screw parts of Northern Maryland, however.
  23. Kmlwx
    92.7 here (the high so far and currently)
  24. Kmlwx
    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 171627Z - 171830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE DAMAGING-WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, TO THE EAST OF AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY/PA AND WV. A SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE AN MCV EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM WV TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. CUMULUS IS GRADUALLY BUILDING FROM EAST-CENTRAL PA INTO SOUTHEAST NY, AND A GENERAL INCREASING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK (AS NOTED ON REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS), BUT CONTINUED HEATING WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE INCREASING ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH TIME. MODESTLY ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITH TIME, WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF ANY SUPERCELLS CAN BE SUSTAINED. ONE OR MORE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER THE DAMAGING-WIND THREAT. ..DEAN/HART.. 07/17/2024 ..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LWX...
  25. Kmlwx
    No appreciable changes to the latest SPC outlook.
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