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Everything posted by Kmlwx
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Just need the pesky lower ones east of the BR to burn off. Still early. I think we'll get some decent storms today - maybe not super severe of course...but storms.
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Clouds...
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From a flooding standpoint - June 2006 was *extremely* impressive - especially given the absence of a tropical system interacting with a front.
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Well certainly not for severe - but sometimes we can get a strong(ish) round and then some follow-up heavy rainers that keep dropping rainfall.
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I'm interested in today despite it being a marginal threat. Some of the CAMs have rolled some fairly impressive sim radar returns over the metro area later on. Might even be more than one round of storms for some!
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The 0z NAM nest kind of goes a little crazy over the metro area tomorrow afternoon lol
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Loving these cool mornings! Low of 47.7
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CIPS has a signal at around day 7/8
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Impressive to see SPC already honking about it potentially. We'll see how things shake out as we get beyond this stretch of beautiful weather. Loving the lower humidity.
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I think overall coverage might be better than the past two days. But severity is likely to be less than Monday. CAMs look pretty good!
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In typical Kmlwx fashion...I'm already hunting our next window. CIPS has a bit of a signal at the 240hr frame (day 10). That's probably the next chance for anything. For now it seems we'll be lower humidity and a lot more stable for the time being. Not complaining as long as we can keep the 68-70+ dewpoints away. It can get humid...but only if we cash in with woo storms.
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Dewpoint behind the storms is down by around 7-8 degrees. Temp down to 66 degrees (off the high of 78.9). Can't wait for the 50s dewpoints (40s even!).
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Enjoy the storms - it's possible we go on a run of not much excitement.
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I think it's one of those pseudo-hooks we've seen before.
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The higher scans of the Great Falls cell have a hook - but not sure it's legit.
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MoCo cell N of Wolf Trap has had some occasional interesting velocity but it keeps going away. Showing up on the TBWI scans a bit.
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Maybe a bit of a downburst signal NE of the Sterling radar?
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My phones have tended to not get STWs but they do get Flood Warnings and Tornado Warnings.
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Okay here we go - it's going to try to cycle up. ProbSevere going up steadily now and uptick in lightning. Velocity scans actually look semi decent. Seems like the Howard cell might be losing some punch for the moment.
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Rooting for the cell on the Loudoun/Fairfax/MoCo border. The CIMMS probs have been slowly increasing on it - lightning seems to be cycling up and down.
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The ProbSevere numbers on that Mount Airy storm are up to 19% TOR.
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I'm a little more intrigued. My temp never cracked 80...but it continues to be extremely moist/soupy out there. It' definitely uncomfortable walking outside. Let's see if the cells forming in NoVA can start to develop any more than just isolated storms.
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Little cell popping in Southern Maryland now. Radar looks largely dead. The fat lady is warming up in the wings.
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Just made a post - not sure what created the boundary - maybe differential heating from the clouds earlier...or maybe a river wind or something. Seems to far W to be a bay breeze. If the Fredericksburg cell can throw off an outflow - and these two meet up it could at least salvage consolation thunder. But yes - this looks terrible.
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There is a boundary moving N and W from the DC are that *might* be something to root for to trigger something else. You can see it on the Meso East floater 1 sector visible satellite and also very slightly on the TIAD terminal radar.
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