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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    MCVs are notoriously sneaky for amping up severe chances. They just have to be timed correctly and take a good path for us. But they can add a little "boost" to our odds in an otherwise less favorable environment.
  2. Kmlwx
    Many of the CAMs this morning seem to wait until E of 95 to get things going. Also, almost every model skunks decent swaths of the area...should be expected with convection - but seems there will be some bad shaftings.
  3. Kmlwx
    The NAM nest is pretty good too. We'll see....
  4. Kmlwx
    Amateur/gut answer is that it's simply more humid in the summer versus the winter - thus more humidity to overmix out. We might not notice it as much (or at all) when the dewpoints are in the teens versus the 70s. But I could be totally wrong.
  5. Kmlwx
    And also it's a WATCH not a WARNING. The literal purpose of a watch is to indicate that the criteria are possible, not occurring or imminent. Urban flooding is definitely an ever-growing problem in the cities and urban corridor.
  6. Kmlwx
    45%+ showing on the the CSU MLP for today. SPC holds us at slight but does mention a bowing structure possible - too many uncertainties.
  7. Kmlwx
    Storming - all sub severe IMBY but has cooled the temp down to 80 now and still dropping. Dewpoint in the mid 70s so very soupy still. Let's see what the threat tomorrow ends up being.
  8. Kmlwx
    90.0 still with a heat index of over 98. Yuck!
  9. Kmlwx
    And that's why the SPC folks are the guys that get paid! You can see on LWX radar the outflow from the WV activity and then increasing activity ahead of it - just like they indicated was possible in their mesoscale discussion.
  10. Kmlwx
    big blunder by AlertMontgomery @Eskimo Joe - it just sent out a message for a warning in the CTP WFO.
  11. Kmlwx
    And it does show a 101 at 16:03
  12. Kmlwx
    http://www.iadasos.org/IAD/index.html
  13. Kmlwx
    https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/2407161836.acus11.html
  14. Kmlwx
    Yeah one was out a little bit before it was issued way earlier.
  15. Kmlwx
    Possible that George BM was looking at the IAD ASOS live page. Might have gone up and then back down.
  16. Kmlwx
    Poor mid-level lapse rates/warm air aloft. Surface heat does not always equate to good instability for storms sadly.
  17. Kmlwx
    The RAP run on the SPC mess site gets DCAPE over the DC area to 1500!
  18. Kmlwx
    The CU field to the west has grown. There are some cells forming - yes they could/likely will struggle - but if a storm manages to cook it could get quite strong. DCAPE is quite strong and in the 1100-1300 range.
  19. Kmlwx
    99.5 after touching 100.2! Dewpoint has fallen a smidge but it's still brutal out there at above 70.
  20. Kmlwx
    Was just going to post the same thing. The CU field looks to be agitating as they say.
  21. Kmlwx
    Wunderground website map shows a few PWSs right in my neighborhood that are 100+ (even 105!) Not sure I buy those...but maybe.
  22. Kmlwx
    Assuming a wayward cloud doesn't go overhead I think I can do triple digits today. Up to 98.2 - but that is back from my high of 99.0. Dew is still holding up in the 73-74 range.
  23. Kmlwx
    Right next to the house is NW Branch Stream Valley #4. Broke through and 96.8 now. Started off a bit lower this AM from the storms yesterday as well.
  24. Kmlwx
    I've gotten stuck around 95 IMBY. 95.5 now with a high today of 95.7 so far.
  25. Kmlwx
    93.6 actual 73.9 dewpoint HI: 103.8
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