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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Nah - just looking at "threat windows" - it seems like the last 2-3 runs have actually had a window during that timeframe (May 8-10). Worth keeping an eye on if nothing else. If it's a legit window, I'd want to see CIPS at least with a modest signal around then in the coming days. I'm sure in June there will be the usual few days embedded in there. By July we are getting into pulse/microburst season unless an unusually strong storm system rolls through. August is mostly the same - except that the tropical folks will probably be looking for threats. September usually brings the threat at least for some progressively stronger/more dynamic systems (but really this seems to have pushed to Oct/Nov even in recent years.
  2. Kmlwx
    18z GFS says not so fast. It has a window around day 10 with decent mid-level lapse rates somewhat close/in the area and good supercell parameters. Wayyyy out there - but I'm willing to give the season time to evolve. It definitely is annoying getting a big early heat "wave" like this and probably not getting much out of it precip/storm wise.
  3. Kmlwx
    Even an area wide line of storms with nice lightning would be fun at this point.
  4. Kmlwx
    12z CIPS maps actually had some moderate risk days in the mix of analogs. June 4, 2008 is showing up too But also some other older events with moderate risks or a decent number of reports locally.
  5. Kmlwx
    I see it on CIPS. Though it's not a meaty signal as of yet. We take what we can get - it's been on the boring side lately!
  6. Kmlwx
    For sure. I feel like every single model site has some weird quirk that is awful and really tough to get used to. I love the CoD site except that it seems to lag behind sometimes - but it's a higher education site...so I'm not going to be picky. I know some will say the CoD interface is outdated but I love it...simple and you know what you're doing no matter what.
  7. Kmlwx
    Maybe I can ditch Pivotal then. I already bailed on WeatherBell because of their price hike. Pivotal has been pretty good, though.
  8. Kmlwx
    Photographers out there...B-52 is going to do a low flyover of Arlington Cemetery around 11:40 apparently. The aircraft is currently holding over the Calvert County area. Anybody from from JB Andrews WNW to Alexandria/Arlington and then just NW of Arlington may get a photo-op from this. People farther out - it will depend how the aircraft departs the area. Guessing MoCo is out of luck as this airframe will probably head back to Barksdale after.
  9. Kmlwx
    The HRRR is actually kind of solid for some of us this afternoon/evening. But almost none of the other guidance seems to agree with it. 6z NAM 3km was snooze worthy and so were the ARW twins. ETA: The HRDPS is pretty okay as well.
  10. Kmlwx
    #derechoredux
  11. Kmlwx
    Bit of thunderstorm activity to the west of the metros. Obviously sub-severe - but rumbles would be cool.
  12. Kmlwx
    It will work only because we failed so badly during winter.
  13. Kmlwx
    That would be SO fitting....take away my snowfall contest win as well
  14. Kmlwx
    What in the world
  15. Kmlwx
    CIPS and GFS are pretty quiet for the next couple weeks it looks like...so unless something sneaks up on us we may be back in snooze mode. The cooler weather coming back probably will squash instability and preclude any spring severe while it's around. I'm hoping for a last hard freeze to cut down on some of the bugs already out ugh. We'll have to see what late April and early May hold for thunder chances
  16. Kmlwx
    The storms near Capon Bridge actually have had an uptick in lightning production.
  17. Kmlwx
    Meh
  18. Kmlwx
    The few chances we've had already this year have been failing on timing. We need something to come through during peak hearing or just after and also not while we are wedged north of a warm front.
  19. Kmlwx
    Pouring in Colesville, MD
  20. Kmlwx
    You got me a little more enthused when you said this storm wouldn't go quietly...but yeah the timing sucks. It has looked pretty meh for us from the get go.
  21. Kmlwx
    I was thinking the same thing after I read his message and then looked at the map lol
  22. Kmlwx
    Meh
  23. Kmlwx
    Bullish!
  24. Kmlwx
    12z FV3 actually looks pretty good on sim reflectivity.
  25. Kmlwx
    LWX mentions lack of instability...which we already knew would be the issue here. Few good analogs still showing up in CIPS at the 72hr frame. Better timing/better instability with this probably would have allowed for a pretty sizeable severe risk. I don't really see anything to suggest major changes from what we are expecting though. Gusty line of showers/storms Thur night seems like a good bet, though.
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