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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    My money is on the NAM...if we have mid 50s dewpoints that would be downright comfortable.
  2. Kmlwx
    94 at the house right now.
  3. Kmlwx
    Good. Because this heat wave isn't even to its worst and I already can't stand days on days of sunny heat waves. I swore off my window AC unit last year because no matter how well it was sealed - wasps were getting in. Regretting that now...bedroom didn't drop below 80 until after 7am this morning. If it's going to be this hot - I need severe to ramp up.
  4. Kmlwx
    As long as dews and temps drop to tolerable levels...
  5. Kmlwx
    Since CIPS is dead in the water (site has been down for weeks) - we only get CSU MLP. Signal for Sunday has increased again in today's guidance.
  6. Kmlwx
    That being said...CSU MLP has increased the threat level a bit for Sunday -
  7. Kmlwx
    For a completely un-scientific reason...I thought maybe things would turn around after that tornado day. Anecdotally we have gone on "heaters" that often start off with a major area-wide event. Weather hasn't been a hugely exciting hobby locally recently. I mean sure - there have been a few things here and there - but certainly no sustained tracking of any sort.
  8. Kmlwx
    Microburst/downburst season I suppose. But yes...localized areas can absolutely get wrecked in July. I think we are still "OK" into late June - especially if we can get some NW flow action. Save for the big no-watch tornado day it's been a real quiet season locally.
  9. Kmlwx
    For Friday - I'd expect our usual isolated storm/isolated severe style event. Maybe a marginal or lower end slight if we are lucky. I am very doubtful it will be any sort of widespread of heavily damaging event.
  10. Kmlwx
    The other explanation is that it's just chance occurrences...the front was probably the main driver during this event. La Plata is definitely the river wind enhancement as storms cross from the Quantico area to the Maryland side. The river is a lot less wide up in western MoCo...but I'm sure there's still some microscale stuff that could be just enough for added helicity or something. I mean hell...270 is so busy that we can't even discount the actual highways adding heat to impact smaller scale wind direction and stuff. MoCo is kind of cool in that we have the Potomac on one border, huge interstate through the center, and then the Patuxent and big reservoirs on the northern border. All sorts of little interactions that might be a factor.
  11. Kmlwx
    @Eskimo Joe - I think maybe it was a bit north of the one I'm going to reference - but I seem to remember that 2013 long track MoCo tornado taking a very similar path to the one the other day. I know my mom worked at Stonegate ES at the time and it went right through there. We've always mentioned the little "tornado alleys" locally. Obviously a sample size of 2 is not nearly enough - but might be inclined to add the MoCo corridor running from Poolesville east along roughly the ICC and then cutting up towards Columbia as a mini alley. The La Plata one is the most famous - definitely the river wind component. I think people have mentioned one up closer to Frederick as well?
  12. Kmlwx
    Brain vomiting now...but what about some sort of meso/microscale balloon program where a mobile launcher like on a truck could carry balloon launching equipment to spots where supplemental launches are needed? Imagine getting a decent collection of sondes in a region right before a severe weather day. Example could be the normal LWX/IAD balloon, but supplemented by a launch near Westminster, Fredericksburg, somewhere out west in the mountains, over/near the bay, Southern Maryland.
  13. Kmlwx
    Imagine the better data across the board if they got funding/approval for either 4x daily balloon launches at all sites and/or added more dense balloon release locations. The cost cannot be that high compared to some of the other stuff our country spends on. Somebody should sneak it into part of the defense budget...it would have benefits for the military as well for all sorts of applications. Between balloons and phased-array radars...gotta get smart with dual/multi-use of stuff like this. Weather impacts everyone and everything...
  14. Kmlwx
    I am not sure I would go that far at all. They were warning the storms left and right. SPC didn't coordinate a Tornado Watch due to expected overall low coverage. However, given the risk, the smarter move could have been to issue a small watch given the major metro area. HOWEVER, flip side is that if they issued a watch and no storms formed or only weak ones...false alarm fatigue. I would hope that the warnings did their job. Wouldn't call it a "huge fail" by the weather service but that's just my two cents. Very easy to judge after the fact.
  15. Kmlwx
    The answer that is likely going to come from this is going to be low spatial coverage overall. High impact because of the location it went through (major metropolitan region) - but overall coverage was why they didn't issue a watch. Whether it's right or wrong - that's the reasoning. Consider the STW just a handful of days ago when almost no storm activity occurred at all. Tough job to be an SPC/NWS forecaster.
  16. Kmlwx
    There were hints of this on some runs of the NAM nest yesterday as well. I should not have written off some of the model soundings that popped on a few runs as early as yesterday. Wow.
  17. Kmlwx
    Just need the pesky lower ones east of the BR to burn off. Still early. I think we'll get some decent storms today - maybe not super severe of course...but storms.
  18. Kmlwx
    Clouds...
  19. Kmlwx
    From a flooding standpoint - June 2006 was *extremely* impressive - especially given the absence of a tropical system interacting with a front.
  20. Kmlwx
    Well certainly not for severe - but sometimes we can get a strong(ish) round and then some follow-up heavy rainers that keep dropping rainfall.
  21. Kmlwx
    I'm interested in today despite it being a marginal threat. Some of the CAMs have rolled some fairly impressive sim radar returns over the metro area later on. Might even be more than one round of storms for some!
  22. Kmlwx
    The 0z NAM nest kind of goes a little crazy over the metro area tomorrow afternoon lol
  23. Kmlwx
    Loving these cool mornings! Low of 47.7
  24. Kmlwx
    CIPS has a signal at around day 7/8
  25. Kmlwx
    Impressive to see SPC already honking about it potentially. We'll see how things shake out as we get beyond this stretch of beautiful weather. Loving the lower humidity.
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