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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    12z GFS backed wayyy off on the Monday threat. Instability looks much lower. This is why we can't "bank on" anything days out ahead. We'll see how things look later in the weekend.
  2. Kmlwx
    June 2013 (the big event) is showing up in the analogs
  3. Kmlwx
    The supercell composite maps have improved a decent bit from prior runs. If that continues to look good or even improve, I'll be on board. Still a bit too far out to be at all confident.
  4. Kmlwx
    If @Amped is excited - that's usually a good indication for severe.
  5. Kmlwx
    I wish had had a better memory of the sequence of late May to early June 1998. I wasn't THAT young...but for some reason I just can't remember specifics. My memory starts to become clearer starting around the Sept 2001 College Park tornado...but before that...really blurry if any memory at all. June 2008 seemed like a decent "heater" period along with June 2012.
  6. Kmlwx
    October 18th of that year (1990) had an outbreak as well. Most of what I can find are write-ups that might not be DC area centered and archived articles from the WaPo and similar.
  7. Kmlwx
    Using MBY in Silver Spring/Colesville as a point, the IEM SPC Outlook filtering guide shows *TEN* moderate risk days from May to October in 1990. Obviously, meteorology wasn't advanced as it was...but that was either a heck of a bust year or we were absolutely getting rocked and rolled. I wasn't born yet
  8. Kmlwx
    CIPS is a little less enthusiastic on the 0z overnight run. But it will wax and wane I'm sure. I was doing some boredom research and it definitely looks like the idea that we go on heaters followed by long periods of "meh" severe weather is legit - at least judging solely by SPC outlook categories. I found some stretches in the 90s of heater runs of moderate risks in a month period. Wish I was old enough to distinctly remember those. SPC Outlook archives on their website only go back to 2000 - Googling can get you some but not a comprehensive list of pre-2000. Fun to do in free time. Nerds....we are.
  9. Kmlwx
    Who knows when the next time we'll see a TOR driven moderate risk around these parts. Exceedingly rare.
  10. Kmlwx
    From June 1, 2012
  11. Kmlwx
    Lots of nothing...BUT the domain that is centered over us has the following: For the 84hr mark: June 24-25, 1996 (multiple tornado day in NoVA), June 2-3, 1998 (big time eastern US tornado outbreak - also quickly followed the May 1998 derecho outbreak). For the 132hr mark there are two domains mostly overlapping each other. Doing some pick and choose shows June 1-2, 2012 and April 27/28/29 event in 2011.
  12. Kmlwx
    Don't look now but the 12z CIPS guidance has some excitement at the 84hr frames and the 132hr frames.
  13. Kmlwx
    The one thing is that they probably mean substantial relative to this week's threats (which seem marginal for now). So "more substantial" could mean just a step above that.
  14. Kmlwx
    At this point I'm pretty meh on the remainder of the week. We'll see about Thursday. Intrigued (for now) on Monday. Doldrums around here lately.
  15. Kmlwx
    Would be cool to see ARs 3676, 3683, 3674, 3679 and the group just emerging into view form the east limb all merge and grow into a sunspot group to end all sunspot groups.
  16. Kmlwx
    Paging @Eskimo Joe - the 18z GFS throws at least some semblance of better-than-normal mid-level lapse rates our way a few times next week.
  17. Kmlwx
    GFS is very lame (in terms of parameters) though nearly the end of the run. Will see how this changes the in the coming days.
  18. Kmlwx
    I'm a little more optimistic the later into May we get. Obviously, it would be helpful is we had June heat/humidity available.
  19. Kmlwx
    NW flow comes to mind. That could be what they are referencing. If a little kink in the flow can come at us at the right angle, perhaps even with some EML advecting from the west, we could do very well. GFS has teased us with a few potential threats in the fantasy ranges the last few runs.
  20. Kmlwx
    If anything I'd expect it to run early rather than late. The earlier CMEs probably cleared things out enough to allow a faster forward speed. But space weather is fickle and unpredictable...even more so than Earth weather!
  21. Kmlwx
    Wow - radar is actually a good old fashioned squall line - subsevere it seems mostly but it reminds me of the 90s/2000s squall lines that were solid/contiguous. HRRR looks good for DC Metro and Maryland
  22. Kmlwx
    There's a distinct "buckle" in that line up there. Plus, it's possible the higher terrain is not giving the radar the clearest view. Probably a more CYA warning than anything - but wouldn't be surprised if there's wind damage with it.
  23. Kmlwx
    The HRRR past few runs have actually moved that Garret Co stuff through parts of the area tonight - even holding it together somewhat. It could really put a damper on northern light viewing, though.
  24. Kmlwx
    Maybe we can get an Eskimo Joe style disaster and the grid will fail.
  25. Kmlwx
    Meh. Back to tracking solar flares and CMEs
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