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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    If there's a thin or high cloud deck - that might be okay. Obviously clear is best - but supposedly with a thinner or higher deck there can be some pretty cool effects...
  2. Kmlwx
    I've mostly written off both days for MBY - hoping for the unicorn of elevated storms with some hail. HRRR looked pretty good honestly...but we know how that goes. Hoping for some better push of the warm air. But yes - it does't look great for DC northward.
  3. Kmlwx
    And even there I'm not convinced those clouds won't trend worse. Really goes to show you that climo is only a first "guess" - pretty awful maps from the GFS for the US eclipse path
  4. Kmlwx
    Maine almost looks like a solid bet on the latest GFS
  5. Kmlwx
    Wish I had been wrong but thanks everyone and especially to @RodneyS for putting on the contest! Let's hope we all get a blockbuster winter at some point.
  6. Kmlwx
    I wills say - I know some of it is just weather superstition...but what Bob Chill says in winter applies sometimes in summer too. We tend to go on "heaters" of severe. A beefy event just to our west could be a harbinger of things to come. Maybe...And nobody come at me for "hoping" for destruction...I'm not. Weather gonna weather.
  7. Kmlwx
    The modeling is pretty much unanimous on us being wedged. Even NoVA doesn't look like it escapes the wedge for the most part. Will be keeping an eye on the elevated threat I guess!
  8. Kmlwx
    Tracking galore to our west tomorrow. Beefy outlook.
  9. Kmlwx
    Good amount of thunder and lightning in the wee morning hours.
  10. Kmlwx
    I'm still not convinced DC/Baltimore will be in the game. VA seems like a better bet and even then who knows
  11. Kmlwx
    75kts of shear might rip apart updrafts as well though.
  12. Kmlwx
    That being said - I would be happy even with a nice few claps of elevated thunder. The only way I'm okay with mosquito season is thunderstorms - Not looking forward to sweating my butt off for months on end.
  13. Kmlwx
    I'm with @George BM for the most part. We've played this movie before...warm fronts this time of year struggle to get as far north as forecast unless there's some super anomalous push. Heck...even later into April they can struggle...and this would be ultra-early April. Will be interesting to see how this unfolds - but yeah that's a beefy/large 15% area. My guess is that NoVA might get into some surface based action - but I'm not sure I buy north of the Potomac and especially not closer to the M/D line. It's nice to have something semi interesting to track, at least. Maybe a sign we won't have a dead early season with weeks of boredom.
  14. Kmlwx
    The last few GFS runs appear to be having trouble pushing better dewpoints and such north of the Potomac. It's pretty darn early still - but it's something to track that's not only in the Plains.
  15. Kmlwx
    Day 5 15% - woo storms?
  16. Kmlwx
    The GFS has some decent supercell composite parameters to our west for next Tuesday afternoon - but the timing is bad for us and it fizzles east of the mountains.
  17. Kmlwx
    From people more knowledgeable than myself - I've heard that it's not as simple as "drop the anchor = stop the boat" - and as a prior poster said - it seems they DID attempt to drop it anyway.
  18. Kmlwx
    The optimist in me would hope that even the most adamant of environmental advocates would see the economic impact of this bridge being out of commission for a long duration. Additionally, perhaps they'd see the added fossil fuel burning from trucks having to find longer alternate routes to get to/from the same spots. But optimism only gets you so far these days lol
  19. Kmlwx
    I would think they will rebuild a bridge. Right now - that's a major way people go if they can't tolerate the tunnel (other interstate option would be all the way around the western side of 695. Obviously the decision probably won't factor in people's tunnel phobias...but I imagine due to the logistics of tunneling, they will keep it as a bridge when rebuilt.
  20. Kmlwx
    A lesser impact - but for folks who do not want to drive through a tunnel - this really sucks for adding travel time to trips through this area.
  21. Kmlwx
    Absolutely this. Horrifying to imagine if this had been during the morning or evening rush hour especially.
  22. Kmlwx
    Well one thing is you can have a hard freeze or two and then have 20 degree plus departures and the averages will look like the freezes never happened.
  23. Kmlwx
    Every few runs of the GFS at least have had a storm system near the fantasy range/end of run that could be a severe producer for our area. Way too far out but has shown up a few times in varying forms.
  24. Kmlwx
    We usually flag April as "it's still too early" - but it does come with the benefit of having some really potent systems sometimes before we head into the more summery "doldrum" patterns. It seems we always have a bit of a "butter zone" in spring and fall when CAPE is healthy enough for more than just pencil thin lines of gusty showers - but with higher shear than you'd see in July.
  25. Kmlwx
    I'm torn on whether to root for a last minute freak snowstorm that makes me lose....or if I should just hope for the win at this point.
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