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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    Great info and work John ! The 71-72 one sticks out to me...There was a major late November Snowstorm here (8 inch). Dec...very small events here. Jan. Mild, basically snowless. Feb., An Alaskan born major cold shot mid Month sparked a major east coast Snowstorm 17-19th. 8" on the 17th here. Interesting 500 mb charts on all those Winters and events you presented on Plymouth.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Carvers. A bit tough to decipher. MJO along with overall bad PAC , with no blocking would be a no brainer but, things may follow similar route as last Winter. Therefore, blocking would be pretty dominate and alter any Pac driven super mild pattern here.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Excellent post buddy ! Yeah, I remember those days of old... We've cashed in with decent snowfalls with that setup. I will note; the 60's also had that pattern rather often and as most know that Decade was basically cold/snowy. A -PDO and -NAO was dominate overall. Many nowadays, particularly the younger crowd, including Mets, tend to go automatic mild in this area with the Alaskan vortex or trough(for obvious reasons). A SW US Ridge and strong block in the areas portrayed can produce a pattern where we can cash in still with cold and snow.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Think they're having trouble with the Greenland block...Gefs wants to basically go Pac driven and basically overpower the -NAO affect. With that firehouse pac jet, it would sure halp to have a strong -AO in conjunction with the-NAO. Imo, that would help counter the terrible Pac setup.
  5. Daniel Boone
    12z GFS went totally into the crapper !
  6. Daniel Boone
    Foliage peak was 2 to 3 weeks behind normal here in SWVA .
  7. Daniel Boone
    Them cold look fountains are the one's that just look like they'd just have to have cold water flowing out of them. Lol
  8. Daniel Boone
    Currently 37 up here in Wise now. 45 at home in Jonesville. 52 in Kingsport. Pretty good spread in area. Agree John on overnight lows. Kmrx is almost always too high on forecasted Temps for your and my area.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. It is rather interesting to study that period and see what we can deduce on the difference in outcome in comparison to this era.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Chuck, what's your thoughts and answer on the Winter of 1950-51 ? Neg. PDO + La nina. I know a different Climate Era but, worth a discussion. Hlb clearly altered the typical La nina -PDO outcome as it did in mid 60's and 95-96 and 2010-11. I've not checked QBO Status from that year.
  11. Daniel Boone
    A little food for thought. With most forecasters going for a mild Winter in the Eastern US based mainly on La nina and a neg. PDO , I thought i'd bring up a historical event that occurred during a similar setup. The "Great Appalachian Storm" of November 1950. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/appalachianstorm1950 There's many articles on it. Just google. Very interesting ! Of course, nothing of that magnitude in this climate era is bordering impossible, when you consider the time of year and the extreme cold associated. However, it does show the possibility of a cold/snowy pattern in the Eastern States during a La nina/-Pdo Winter. The rest of that Winter averaged basically normal with the Nashville area receiving a major Ice/Snowstorm in January.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Recorded 1st freeze of Season here this morning. 31.6 degrees.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Recorded 1st freeze of Season here this morning. 31.6 degrees.
  14. Daniel Boone
    The reality is, if formidable hlb isn't pre$ent this Winter it's basically set in stone Mild. The 1960's featured a similar Pac setup several times that Decade and the Winters were cold/snowy in much of the Nation. The key; High latitude blocking. I know many will argue that was a different climate era as why. I agree the same pattern yielded today would be warmer than then but, still blocking was reason for a cold nation as a whole and not just the West, as a -PDO/La nina Pattern would dictate without it. So, there's still some hope.
  15. Daniel Boone
    It's all good man.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. I know that. Over 40 years experience. As mentioned earlier, and take a look at those years. Blocking is key in those colder la nina /-PDO Winters, ala; 2010-11.
  17. Daniel Boone
    It all boils down to formidable blocking this year. Weak mod nina/ neg pdo. Gotta have blocking .
  18. Daniel Boone
    Actually, for eastern Valley it wasn't great at all snowfall wise other than Christmas event. Ktri was below avg snowfall.
  19. Daniel Boone
    It basically boils down to blocking.
  20. Daniel Boone
    As others have mentioned, you are better off even in strong Ninas than areas further East. This year may be similar to last . If so, you'll do fine as you know.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Good post as usual John...the thing that concerns me however is even if the La nina stays weak is the -PDO. See if u can come up with. Composites of that criteria. I know the 1960's featured that combo as well as all other enso combos as well and they were all pretty much cold/ snowy. Blocking was formidable that Decade.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Agree on your leaning strongly toward warm for Valley even with weak to mod nina. However, if formidable blocking can set up then a normal to cold Valley. Ala., 2010-11..but, that unlikely as I feel the -PDO will aid the Nina and the odds for warmth greater as any blocking will prob. be hard to be sustainable.
  23. Daniel Boone
    I would be satisfied with a repeat of last Winter here as my local wound up with almost 30" of Snow ( almost all heavy/wet). However, as Carvers alluded to, the true very cold never made it east of the Plateau other than the Christmas shot.
  24. Daniel Boone
    10-11 was a great Winter here in far SW VA.. No major snowstorms but, plenty of cold and lt to moderate events that led to an above average Season.
  25. Daniel Boone
    There were several that month, depending on your location. Jan. 30 being the most prominent one. NWS Office's throughout area should have some data/info regarding Snowfalls that month. Google Jan. 2010 Snowstorms. There's plenty. Narrow to Tennessee Valley Snowstorms if you just want that.
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