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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    But yet last I checked only had WWA out for netn and Scott and Lee Va..at this juncture, I'd say that's just bad business. Use some logic and skill instead of buying into an earlier model run.
  2. Daniel Boone
    May reach criteria but, doubt NWS issues. They may mention blizzard conditions.
  3. Daniel Boone
    There's more to it than just the pattern and systems "always" forecasting snowfall lower amounts in the KTRI SWVA Area recently. The Model's ingest previous systems track, intensity, precip/snowfall data from numerous NWS and Coop affiliated Stations. January's pattern with these parameters has left a fingerprint with them. Also, there's data flowing into the System from a local Station in Pennington gap. It is in a terrible location to reflect the area's weather. It also doesn't meet NWS siting location Guidelines as it's TH Sensors are just 10-15 feet from a metal structure. Also, the city employees man it and they are less than caring, so to speak. This is the only official station between Middlesboro and KTRI. There's your reflection on Model's.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Let's hope the rgem retakes it's crown it had last winter. Damn 0z Nams a Debbie downer. Hopefully, it's not onto something and just being it's wacky self.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that is a concern. Hopefully the strong forcing along the arctic front will mitigate that somewhat and be able to pull the moisture mainly up this way. Storms that fire within the moisture transport route are always a worry.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Kmrx reasoning with their present Totals projection is warm ground and "fast movement". Ground Temps here are not that warm now as that last inch rainfall fell with temps in the lower mid 40's therefore cooling it quite a bit.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Yeah man . Hammer time with that !
  8. Daniel Boone
    Foot or more call for the Plateau is looking good.
  9. Daniel Boone
    That's KMRX younger generation Mets for you there
  10. Daniel Boone
    Just looking over some archived data of the March 2-3 1942 Snowstorm. That storm tracked from around Mobile thru the upstate then west of Hatteras to off Jersey Coast. That Storm still stands as the biggest Snowfall in most of Lee County on Record. Reportedly 34" in Jonesville. 36" in Pennington gap we're measured. Asheville received 16" from it. That Storm dumped on a huge area. Stretching from Ne Ga to Maine and back to eastern Ohio Valley. Of course, this one will be nothing like that although, track and some 500 mb features are similar. You can find map data on NOAA's daily weather map archived page. Also, photos from Pittsburgh of it where over 2 feet fell..
  11. Daniel Boone
    Bingo ! Excellent point Carvers. I've saw many March storms overperform by a large margin.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, that would be a good thing and quite possibly allow for the higher end totals.
  13. Daniel Boone
    It appears the model's are having trouble not implementing the thorn that plagued the Valley in January. Shift everything a few miles east and would be great. Could be, cold infiltrates enough this go round to dislodge that Thorn.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, the model's will follow that pattern somewhat as that was ingested from this Winter's track's.
  15. Daniel Boone
    This looks to have the potential for a classic major March Snowstorm. Looks fairly likely the Plateau will receive a foot or more. Slow this thing down a tad and increase duration and a true to form old fashioned big March snowstorm would result with 1 to 2 feet Totals.
  16. Daniel Boone
    If we do get a decent March Storm,the 74-75 analog will have worked out somewhat. Of course no analogues going to be exact or even real close to carbon copy. I actually feel pretty confident in a decent snowfall this time. Hopefully it pans out
  17. Daniel Boone
    Here's a link with pics of a major Snowstorm that encompassed a large area, including ours. It stretched from NE Georgia all the way to NewYork. Mainly west side of Apps. It is Lee Counties biggest on record with Pennington gap recording about 3 feet ! My parents spoke of it being up to the windows on the level. The local paper has an article on it. Very interesting. Would post if there were room.
  18. Daniel Boone
    Lmao. Good one !!!
  19. Daniel Boone
    Exactly! Excellent factual point.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, same irt this area although annual precip avgs a bit more as Lee County averages 45 to 55 inches annually. More Mountain tops of course. Western end near Cumberland gap highest Valley range. Central, lowest. Snowfall as is case with where u are on average, 14 to 45 " annually with more Mountain tops. The high end being Northern Lee , the Keokee area on the western arm of the Wise Plateau, as it's pegged in the area. As u can see, much more on the Wise plateau in northern Lee and portions of Wise and Russell Co. I.e., Wise, Norton,Lebanon and Honaker.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Excellent analysis and well presented as usual Jeff.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, does pique the interest. Probably is enhanced be the angle of the Valley between those ridges going up to Monterey. You can visualize how that would probably enhance the heavier "streak" if you will, through there. Sort of a concentrated upward funnel of moisture transport.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Lt. Dusting here with very small flakes falling.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Lee County Data is corrupted due to the Pennington gap Site. Official NWS Site and Equipment set up not inline with NWS standards. Metal building 10 ft from Thermohydro Sensor. Site situated about 75-100 yards from Powell River only about 10 ft above bank level. It is within the Pennington gap Sewer Plant and manned by plant personnel. The Pennington Station was out of circuit up until a year or so ago due to erroneous data being reported from the previous site 1 m. South of Pennington at the Water Plant on the banks of Powell River and manned by plant employees. There was a time accurate Data was recorded from Pennington gap. WSWV Radio recorded data for about 12 years up until mid 90's, with staff Meteorologist Don Tooley doing the honors there . Long time official Observer Ernest Frye was prior to that beginning around 1950. Both those locations were more reflective of the Pennington gap area. If you want Accurate Forecasts and Model Data, you need accurate, well placed Stations with trustworthy, knowledgeable Observers.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, one of my Winter analogs. Hopefully it'll work out. '72 one failed.
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