Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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January 28th-29th Clippers/NW Flow Obs/Last Minute Forecasts.
Daniel Boone replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Picked up just a half inch here. Far NE Lee County picked up several inches as well as all of Wise County. Western Lee County picked up 1 to 3". Not a single streamer moved over here. Just western and eastern sections the County. -
I don't know how noticeable it has been to many on the board but, there is a bit of a discrepancy within most models now that began a couple months back. If you notice, the linear of the great valley qpf output is not matching up as well as it did a few months ago. At first, it looked like a grid problem but, upon further investigation I found it to be due to "Official" Weather Station Data ingestion. The Pennington gap Station in Lee County, of which had been nullified several years ago due to bad management operation of observers there submitting erroneous Data, has been reinstated and is once again presenting flawed Obs and Data. I spoke with KMRX regarding this and hopefully will get this taken care of. I'm pretty sure more "Official" Stations have been added as well. This Data is used in the Model Ingest System and therefore affects the areas of their input locations. I'll pass along what and if there's more I find out regarding this.
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As far as the current impending minor threat, I'm rooting for the rgem for obvious reasons. However, providing dry air doesn't consume more qpf than it indicates, the rgem actually looks more realistic with amounts and topographical coverage layout than some of the others, particularly the gfs. The GFS has the entire Valley blanked now. Hard to buy that as quick moving mod. Snshwrs with high ratios will drop a half inch rather fast.
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Your location John is alot like the Norton area irt temps and Snowfall. Wise , just a couple miles north of Norton has a seasonal Snowfall avg. of 48" (Wise Airport). It is about 500 ft. Higher however. Norton's is probably 32 to 35" just guessing. So, ur are definitely in a sweet spot .
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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm
Daniel Boone replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in Southeastern States
Agree. I've witnessed that here. Models are only as good as what goes into them as well. Not all official weather station data that is ingested is accurate, thereby causing the Models to forecast for the area from where the inaçcurate data comes from to be in error . I know of some stations in my area that are as much as 4 degrees above actual as well as poor official observers. -
My Dad used to say that. Wasn't always the case of course. Fond memories. I was up Norton today and they still have snow cover on level ground and North facing, shady areas. Large piles still in parking Lots.
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Tbh, undetermined as so many variables vying for control. MJO warm phases coupled with Nina in Feb. is as you know a strong undesirable combo. Hopefully,we can get it in strong cold phases. However, WPO and EPO have been flexing pretty good so, my best guess is a combative pattern with troughs rather progressive if MJO doesn't go predominately in cold phases in FEB. . Of course old fashioned blocking style would help as well. That's my old school relic wag, lol
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When we needed a sw Atlantic Ridge,or an east based ser if you will, we don't get one i.e, this upcoming system. The past week and a half has really been a disappointment in this location overall. Clippers went North, SS systems South.
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Just watched a local tv met and he apparently is behind the game. Looked like yesterdays model run he was using irt the week as well as weekend system. He just had the clipper affecting area Friday and nothing as far a Storm even in central NC. Also, mentioned " arctic air" Saturday with 32 as a high and 16 low listed. Lol. I'll say this, if model data is correct even at this juncture, it won't even be close to that even at KTRI. May be a high closer to the low he presented.
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Most cases when they track right they're 2-4 here but sometimes produce 4-6".
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I'm inclined to agree. May luck out if blocking behaves right and doesn't go screwy and lock cold west . Blocking is what we needed with current pattern, imo, as would allow Clippers to track south and we'd do decent with those.
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Wise Va Cam : https://www.uvawise.edu/academics/departments/mathematics-computer-science/webcam
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Yeah, think they are basically going Nina Feb. Climo . Hopefully, we pull off an odd Nina one ala; 96, 72 or even '75.
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Wound up with a dusting this morning. 2 tenths to be exact... If med. range modeling is correct, looks like below avg. T for Month with avg. Snowfall based on older Climate standard, above avg., New. Barring an above avg snow Feb/March it's looking like a below avg. Snowfall Winter here.
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Wow!
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Yeah, same here. Way colder than forecasted ! High was 36. Currently 34.3 with lt. Rain.
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Right with you brother !
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Agree wholeheartedly . Im actually pulling for a subtle se shift with the frontal system Thursday. As of now only the rgem is showing a somewhat se shift with the snow with it. Not too long ago, these frontal setups brought snow pre and ana. Maybe we can get a little stronger ca push and we'll get that se trend but, at this juncture I am in doubt. As it stands now, my local is at 7.65" on the season. Seasonal avg. is 17".
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Good one !
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2.8" storm total here. Still snowing lightly. Interestingly , only about an inch of snow occurred from the storm here as mix yesterday with that being light and the heavy bands completely missed here . Clipper produced the most.
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Wise, Va Cam :http://www.mcs.uvawise.edu/~webcam/hkc/hkc640480.jpg
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Began snowing here at 6 then went to mix around 7. Been mainly sleet freezing rain since with a few big flakes occasionally.A heavy dusting. 2 tenths. T. 32.2
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Was the nam warm bias corrected with the latest upgrades ? It used to have about a 2c bias in this area.
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Agree...better to alert than not even if it went the no show snow way. I think they are doing as u say and also afraid of crying wolf.
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They're going from early morning runs and as we all know, their own opinions and biasis. I can see the caution within the great Valley but, not there.
