snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Like you said, you can find studies that will say that the earth is flat, up is down and down is up, black is white and white is black. All the studies I’ve seen suggest that arctic/polar stratospheric water vapor (Hunga Tonga) results in a cold stratosphere and a strong SPV, I’m sure you can find studies that will completely contradict that and say it causes the weakest SPV in history and an inferno stratosphere See here: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103855
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We are going into a very solid period of Nino strengthening….
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The +IOD continues to strengthen. I’m confident it beats the ‘19 peak come November. The models don’t return it to completely neutral until February
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The Nino is not going to +3.0C lol but +2.1C - +2.3C for a NDJ trimonthly average? I can absolutely see that. I think this one peaks in December, although some models are showing a January peak. Regardless, they all have a slow demise into February and March. None of them show it rapidly falling apart
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@GaWx ENSO/IOD/MJO forcing this winter:
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IMO a trimonthly super ONI is inevitable at this point AND Paul says region 4 actually cools over the next several months. It also looks like region 1+2 stays solidly above +2C right through February, at least, like the models have been showing :
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@40/70 Benchmark We can also entertain the fact that this research shows that -QBO/Nino results in much less snow (below average per the study actually) than +QBO/Nino does. I guess there’s 2 sides to everything http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Winter_of_0910.pdf
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Correct. The sample size of strong/super Ninos is way too small. Back in May/June we had people saying this event was going to really struggle to even become moderate because of “history”, yet here we are….
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One thing is for certain, it’s not becoming a Modoki no matter how much JB tweets that it is. That ship has sailed
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Given this look, I don’t think MJO phases 3-6 will be an issue. It’s pretty clear at this point that the El Niño standing wave and the +IOD are going to run the tropical forcing show this winter. The MJO may very well prove to be a non factor the overwhelming majority of the time this winter (typical for strong/super Niños). When there actually is MJO activity it’s probably going to be very weak, fast moving and not in the IO or Maritime Continent
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Nino 1+2 is warming right back up on OISST and CRW….well over +2C again. The models have it staying in the upper +2’s right through January. Regardless of what the atmospheric forcing does or where it migrates, it seems that at least from an oceanic, SST standpoint, this event is bound and determined to stay east-based/EP https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino12.png https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/crw_ssta_graph_nino12.png
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Please stop. Absolutely horrible analysis and bad, bad info. If you are going to post nonsense like this just don’t post. This Nino is in fact very well coupled, SOI, STJ response, SSTs, WWB, Nino standing wave/convection, etc. This is a typical MJO phase 8 response for this time of the year with +ENSO, +GLAAM. Phase 8 isn’t cold this time of the year with a Nino in place. Look at the MJO composite!
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The EPAC tropics have come alive. This is only going to positively feedback and cause further Nino strengthening (WWBs behind these tropical cyclones). The strengthening system is in place now and further coupling is coming. I predict we are at or above +2.0C in region 3.4 by 11/7.
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In which tweet does he “hint” that? Can you post it?
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Buildup would be advancement look at the chart. Its awful, the lowest out of all those years
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For those who follow it (I don’t anymore) but Siberian snowcover buildup through today has been really, really awful. This is Judah’s update from 10/10 and it hasn’t gotten any better since, looks bad for at least the next week too
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The IOD rapidly approaching +2 and the Nino is off to the races already….and the WWB just got going. IMO very likely we are above +2.0C come early next month….
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I’m more confident than ever that we go super (over +2.0C) early next month. My guess stands…+2.1C - +2.3C trimonthly average ONI for NDJ
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Region 3.4 (+1.72C - highest of this event) and region 3 (+2.2C) SSTs are soaring rapidly, -SOI has also strengthened. This Nino is off to the races: Nino 3.4: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino34.png Nino 3: https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_graph_nino3.png SOI: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
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This month and next month is when you want to monitor the SPV and stratospheric temperatures to get an idea of possible effects coming up this winter from all the record volcanic (Hunga Tonga) water vapor that has saturated the arctic/polar stratosphere on our side of the hemisphere
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Should see some real good warming in 3.4 and 3 now. DWKW. And the +IOD continues to strengthen rapidly as well
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It already coupled:
