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anotherman

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    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

    FWIW guidance is still on pace for the longwave pattern to shift between March 10 to March 15.  The problem is the whole continent is torched and so it would take another week after that before lower level thermals are even remotely cold enough in the east and by then were getting into the timeframe that boundary temps along 95 are really a problem.  Places NW with elevation its still possible maybe March 20 on hey could sneak in something...I'm skeptical even there.  

    At this point, I'm hoping this can prevent us from having disgusting weather in April and May.  If it can give us a cool spring, I'm all for it.  Anything to put off the oppressive heat and humidity....

    • Like 1

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Today’s GEFS and GEPS actually are progressing things. The Atlantic shifts before the pac but at day 16 they’re showing signs of the Nina ridge weakening and first signs of the AK vortex shifting. It would happen quickly. With the -nao if the Nina ish pac ridge weakens that vortex in AK would retrograde quickly. It would probably split with a price dropping into the gulf if AK and another pulling west. That’s how the long wave pattern forcing would want it to go if not for the heat ridge to its west. So if that actually does come off it would happen quick. 
     
    I still don’t know if it’s real or another head fake. Today was the day I was going to pull the plug if the pattern didn’t start to progress into the ensembles. And damnit it did. I was kinda wanting to just end this thing and call TOD.  I’ve kinda moved on to other things. But obviously if a threat shows up I’ll track it. 

    I opened this thinking you would be calling it. I got the opposite. I guess we’ll see….
    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    I remember when I  was in law school, for 2 years I walked back and forth from school located within sight of Penn Station down to St. Paul Place near Mercy Hospital where I was a law clerk, then over to Howard Street to wait for my transit bus at the  end of the day (daylight and night.) That's a trip I  would not try making now.
    I've never been off Rt. 30 in Lancaster, so I  have no idea what the city is like. I've been to the hospital in York coming from Hanover, and it looks so-so in a few spots, but for the most part nothing that would make me concerned to be outside.  A lot of crimes on strangers to the perpetrators is bad luck or doing something stupid to draw attention to yourself. 

    I’m more commenting on the fear that exists when it comes to urban areas. Having common sense and avoiding dangerous areas makes sense, but avoiding all urban areas is unfortunate.
    • Like 1

    Late Feb/March Medium/Long Range Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    A freeze thaw cycle can be good so long as it’s sunny and gets into the 40s. I had a great day at Killington last March that started in the 20s but they had a high in the mid 40s. By 10am south facing slopes softened up nice and by noon all slopes were soft. 

    Good for maple sugaring, too.
    • Like 1

    Central PA Winter 23/24

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    CTP forecast through Sunday PA_SnowAmt72hr1.thumb.jpg.f1da9a3429f8d4a26834d9b02aaead7f.jpg

    Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk



    So I think the problem with CTP is that they are completely disconnected with the southern tier counties. I think that’s why there’s always such a delay, and why they always seem one step behind. Really frustrating.
    • Like 2
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