Chinook

According to a couple of models, the southernmost supercells could be by Dallas (possibly without the higher storm-relative helicity values)

this is last night's radar with my picture of a bird head

Top synoptic analogs vary greatly in severe weather coverage. Most analogs here have some severe weather reports in Arkansas. There are not necessarily a lot of tornado analogs. As for now, I am not sure what I might want to post with the models. Instability seems a bit low. 84-hours

scattered thunderstorms in various areas near this warm front

thumbs down to this post

This is surely the 100% correct forecast for Monday, April 8th, the eclipse day. There seems to be a high chance of sunshine for the East, but a heavy storm for Texas and Arkansas. And when I say "surely," I mean the cloudiness forecast is absolutely uncertain at this point.

wasn't this supposed to be pretty insane for South Dakota into Minnesota? I absolutely remember a NWS graphic from Aberdeen that said 16"-23" for a border twn

maybe I will get like 4 seconds of 50mph wind

my area went from a high of 42 to a high of 71

looks like there was 4" in Loveland

Here's a non-confirmed tornado warning that developed out of a pretty good supercell that's been going on near Wichita Falls TX

lightning near Denver

There have been a couple of confirmed tornadoes today. One confirmed tornado right now is near Oakley Kansas. This is a pretty low-moisture situation today. Apparently even up to 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE near this area in Kansas. I don't even really know if a lot of hail will happen today/tonight.

you can pretty much see the warm front with the buoy obs

Convection-allowing models have a rain/snow thunderstorm for you guys tomorrow

radar with a bunch of storm reports

observations from the snow band earlier in the day

You know it's gotta be snowing if the SPC puts out a mesoscale discussion for snow (MSP to Wisconsin, right now)

classic look for Rockies and N Plains snow and S Plains severe (see day-4 outlook on the SPC)

When there's a data outage of some sort at NCEP/NWS, I always tell myself that somebody tripped over the cord to the computer, and they didn't plug it back in for a few minutes. It seems like there used to be more times when the NAM/GFS were delayed. I guess nobody trips over those cords anymore.

The GFS and ECMWF both have 980mb in Colorado on Sunday, so that's some incredible agreement on that feature. Surely, there will be snow for a lot of high elevations, and there's a decent chance of 30mph winds the Front Range cities. I'm sure future models runs will have a better forecast for snow for the Front Range cities.

METARs? What METARs?

More loops https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_16_2024_GFS_sfc_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_16_2024_satellite_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_16_2024_surface_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_16_2024_500mb_loop.html 06z when the snow started to go nuts for you guys

Here are my loops of the big storm system. The radar loop is for the snow in Denver. I knew this would be a big storm for Denver, so I started archiving maps. Then, a tornado almost hit my area! https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_15_2024_radar_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_16_2024_surface_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_16_2024_satellite_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_16_2024_GFS_sfc_loop.html https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Mar_13_16_2024_500mb_loop.html

Maximum rotation at Willard/Plymouth/Plymouth Township lines up with the report that the EF-2 tornado was at Plymouth Township (Richland County/Crawford County)