There was one confirmed tornado warning way earlier today in Kentucky, but it doesn't show up on storm reports. Here are four more non-confirmed tornado warnings now (730pm)
Similarly, the Pivotalweather web site, with Kuchera ratios, has 42" in Ohio, with no lake effect. This continues into lower Illinois with 34.7". It's pretty rare. You'd have to cherry-pick model runs over several years to see something better.
This one is kind of crazy. The ECMWF tends to have moments when it tries to resolve convection but it can't. Nevertheless, chances for rain/freezing rain are there in a few days.