Chinook

I am wondering how the El Nino may already be shifting 250mb winds, even as we've just started, in summer. Obviously, we'll expect lots of subtropical jet in winter. As for now, I used the HISTDATA from NOAA to plot this... it's essentially the same as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis but it lacks some capabilities. Anyway, the 250mb zonal winds have been more westerly than average for some of the E Pacific, into southern Mexico, then out to the Atlantic. You can see the evidence of a ridge over the central USA. Now, we know El Nino tends to have these situations where the wind shear is quite high for the Atlantic hurricane season and squash that. But here's the question: if the 250mb winds were so westerly, why has the E Pacific generated some strong storms? Of course, on here, there's the Hawaii area ,which has had a hurricane this summer (and now a couple more storms by Hawaii), with the more-easterly-than-average winds as shown.

Warmest, or 2nd or 3rd warmest August for north Texas to Wyoming, to Los Angeles

Central Ohio has 9" more rainfall in 31 days, than at this time last year

Thanks. I will check that out. Since we are back to El Nino, I think I am going to eventually post my monthly loops for 250mb and maybe 500mb so I can remember what happened (without reanalysis to help me.)

Yeah 140kt by the NHC. That is Cat-5. Insanity

El Nino for the win

large MCS/MCC overnight. This particular radar image looks like a smiley face. This place just keeps getting wet

24-hr rain from last night (to 1200z) was 1.25" to 3.0" for Toledo. We had some more light showers. Now, SPC is considering a new severe thunderstorm watch for southern Michigan to NW Ohio late tonight

Is that considered a double-bounce?

Is there a way to view some sort of version of NCEP or European reanalysis now? I want to look at weekly or monthly averages of winds and temperatures and such things. But I can't. NCEP reanalysis is not available, as far as I can tell, from PSL: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/ I want to figure out some of this stuff. It used to be fine. You know, look at 850mb temperature averages for a week or whatever. Now, not fine. I'm not sure the European ECMWF reanalysis offers a web page that does the things that I want it to do.

The TDS in Windsor, Canada seems to have been near the Forest Glade subdivision and the international airport.

wow! I hope nobody got hurt It started to rain heavily here with several lightning bolts in the clouds, 20-40mph wind gusts, a few (minor?) wind reports around Toledo, including a tree down in the downtown Toledo area. Low bits of clouds were moving quick with the onset of the storm, like 40mph or more.

I got thunder

Possible tornado in Windsor, Canada

there is currently a small rotation that's not that far from Wyandotte Michigan (Michsnowfreak) -- 11miles southwest

Hawaii is a hurricane magnet now

several tornado warnings in NY/PA today

tornado warning for the storm coming from Lake Ontario to New York state

huge amount of storms in Ontario

large supercells near Toronto

London ONT may have a severe or tornado warning right now

large storms already NW of Toronto

Hurricane Karina has been 125kt from last night into this afternoon. Just add a "T" and you've got Hurricane Katrina!

Honestly I will say that I have not checked that specific map very often. It's not of particular interest, day to day, for me. It seemed like some individual days in the 2016 El Nino were very high like +0.8C or something. For example, Feb 2016 is listed as +0.817C on that web site. The recently monthly anomaly values, like July and August 2026, are high (on that web site), +0.764C and +0.942C. So that's pretty insane.

I have never seen this type of real-time analysis map be +1.0 degrees C