Chinook

Supertyphoon Champi earlier with over 120kt of base velocity near Guam

After a rainy/drizzly day yesterday, the clouds cleared off at nighttime, and Toledo dropped to 36. The high temperture 54 today was a real shocker. Obviously, it's not that uncommon for a temperature of 54 to be in early October, but we avoided the cold temperatures so far, with the warm weather pattern. My general idea is that the really good colors of fall start to occur after a few days/nights when the temperature is cold, but not (much) below freezing. Colors of the trees can get really uncolorful with a hard freeze. I saw that in Colorado twice in 16 years.

The high temperature of 87 at Martinsburg, West Virginia broke the daily record. It had a high 87, a low of 59, and an average temperature of 73, which was 18 degrees above average. The high was only 82 at Washington-Dulles, which is not that far away.

CoCoRAHS shows 0.6" to 0.7" total for Fort Collins-Loveland, 0.9" Broomfield, over 1" Boulder, 0.55" Denver, 1.5" Golden (past 4 days)

Same at my place. The dew point was way up! The dew point is 65 right now, giving us high relative humidity once again at night time.

New RRFS (convection-allowing) ensembles viewer on the SPC web page

Upper Midwest temps at 21z

90 is insane for Minneapolis!

9 tornadoes listed on the SPC web site today

new confirmed tornado Wake NC-Johnston NC- 129 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR EAST CENTRAL WAKE AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES... At 129 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 7 miles south of Zebulon, or 13 miles north of Smithfield, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

PDS TORNADO ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN WAKE AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES... At 123 PM EDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Wake Forest, or 11 miles northeast of Raleigh, moving northeast at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

confirmed tornado ...TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN BLADEN AND NORTHWESTERN PENDER COUNTIES... At 103 PM EDT, a tornado producing storm was located over Kelly, or 21 miles northwest of Leland, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

tornado warning south of Raleigh (Clayton, Smithfield)

47 minutes ago- tornado damage near Fayetteville Airport

Four tornado warnings in NC

There's snow in Montana today, but, I think, rain at Yellowstone National Park

strange 850mb chart for the transition/landfall last night

Simple (Hurricane) Simon says: As I was going to St. Ives, I met a man with seven wives. Every wife had seven sacks, every sack had seven cats, every cat had seven kittens. Kittens, cats, sacks, and wives. How many were going to St. Ives? My phone number is 555 and the answer. Call me in 30 seconds or die. Hurricane Simon at 150mph winds at public advisory 12a on October 10th.

gust to 83mph at buoy PCBF1 near Panama City Beach FL

I'm seeing wind gusts to 61mph at Destin FL. The base velocity from radar has the winds at 104 kt (Northeast to southwest)

Pensacola Naval Air Station gust to 51mph

This buoy will get close to the eye

I think the GFS had a low pressure in a Gulf about a week ago, but there was nothing on the NHC outlook, and then.. nothing, and then.. this.

yes, current radars show 110 kt (126.5mph) wind in the clouds at the eyewall, above ground. That's some crazy stuff.

tornado warning Apalachicola FL, with larger tornadic supercell out over the open water, as I mentioned