Yanksfan

Euro run even though it was still a miss has kept me from throwing in the towel. Good improvements at H5. I'll give it to Thursday 0Z runs before pulling the plug on this one.

If your concern is that we end up with a cutter, you shouldn't worry. Trough is not sharp enough for such a solution unless we see marked changes at the upper levels in the next couple of days. If this thing phases at the optimum time I would expect a BM track or just inside.

GFS was not far from a much bigger hit. Much better northern stream interaction this run. I'm sure some ensemble members will be big hits.

Good improvements with the 12z suite thus far. More work needs to be done to get this up the coast but nothing insurmountable.

Northern stream is a bit faster though. Let's see if it catches up with the southern stream.

Looking over last nights Euro run this morning even though the storm went wide right, there were big changes at the upper levels compared to 12z. If only that northern stream was a bit faster. Euro came precariously close to a monster solution.

I'm pretty sure you mean the 12z EPS cause even though it only goes out to 144hrs, the 18z EPS are even better.

It's all about timing with the northern and southern streams which always makes me skeptical in these thread the needle setups. Not to mention the Euro is either out to lunch or onto something.

Not to mention the GFS is underestimating the precip on the western side of the storm. Its an issue I've seen this model do at times in the past with the big storms.

Dynamics would be at play. A low that intense would create its own cold air.

Believe me It wont be. Taken verbatim that's snow down to the coast. Typical warm thermal bias with the global models. Good thing at this point is we have a signal for a strong storm. Bad thing is my Superbowl party could be in serious jeopardy.

It had me fooled. Without looking at thermal maps you would think that's a raging blizzard with a bombing sub 980 low on the BM.

GFS with the day 10 superbowl bomb. It gets down to 954mb as it reaches our latitude while showing snow for areas only NW. I think not!

My post was sarcasm.

Would yellow stone be big enough for you?

There's this ominous feeling in me with the unusual warm weather this weekend, that we will pay for it dearly with a blockbuster snowstorm next month.

Who me???

It's way too early for any ledge jumping. Heck look at the calendar it's not even winter yet. Despite the garbage pattern we're in currently, at least it's not a torch. It's just volatile. We can still score on some nickel and dime events despite the unfavorable Pacific. Like I said, once we get into January and beyond things will turn around in our favor. We have the players on the field; split flow jet, above normal SST's, and a low solar minimum. I don't see why we can't lock into a good six weeks of a snowy pattern.

Pattern sucks right now. We have a Pac jet on steroids and a lack of any meaningful blocking. All we have are quick shots of cold air followed by cutters. The only way we can score is with a well positioned SWFE. Hopefully with the impending AO drop it will reshuffle the pattern. In the meantime I'm about ready to punt the rest of December away. On a final note I got a feeling once we get into the heart of winter, the Pac will start to relax and stronger blocking will take hold. It's more likely than not we see a HECS before all is said and done. We just have to be patient.

That's why last winter predictions busted so badly and is going to cause forecasting very challenging this winter.

Blizzard of 96 is #1 in my book. Snowed for 28 straight hours. Ended up with 30 inches in my home town of Bloomfield, N.J. at the time. Absolute heaven. The only storm that comes close is Boxing Day.

So let me get this straight. NOAA going with warm and dry conditions while JB says armageddon is coming. Someone is going to look foolish.

When I first got into this weather hobby back in the day as a kid growing up, John Coleman was one of my favorite weathermen on TV. He was truly one of the greats. R.I.P. John.

I like to watch Lee Goldberg. To me he's the best weatherman on TV. When there's an impending storm, I'll also check out Nick Gregory. That's it. I won't even put on the weather channel anymore.

Wow. What a gut wrenching loss by the Yankees. One of the worst post season losses I've ever seen.