Yanksfan

I'm sorry, but with that setup and track that's a snowstorm. Then again I'm not losing sleep over a day 12 GFS surface reflection. At this far out juncture I'm just looking for a consistent signal with all the major models.

Even though the primary low came in more amped on the GFS, it actually came in colder this run thanks to the stout CAD. Slight uptick on the clown maps for the coast.

The GEFS has hinted at a coastal redevelopment south of us. Not out of the realm of possibilities.

Need to keep an eye out for a possible transfer further south. If that were the case it would be a MECS for everyone. Still have time for positive trends.

I guess he's never heard of a backloaded winter. Winter of 2015/16 anyone?

Just goes to show how unreliable the long range forecasting has been. A week ago I pretty much gave up hope for any appreciable snow in January and punted the month away. Now it looks like before too long we're back in the game. Here's hoping when the pattern changes it locks in and we have winter storms to track. It's been boring in here lately with all the bickering and back biting going on.

There's this ominous feeling in me with the unusual warm weather this weekend, that we will pay for it dearly with a blockbuster snowstorm next month.

The problem is what does the MJO do afterwards. If it stays in the 8-1-2 phase, February and March will rock. However there is still concern it traverses into the COD before back peddling to 4-5. If that happens the winter is toast. Our fate should become much clearer in the next week or two.

Maybe, although nothing beats the emotional angst I get waiting for the next model run when an impending HECS is coming.

Yep. I had to do a double take. I thought it was Amy Freeze for a second. Oh well, back to the weather.

I know it's just a random run of the GFS, but towards the end of the run it shows a 968 cutter. That might just do the trick to snap us back into a more wintry regime.

Euro shows it too. Hopefully the models latches onto the idea and we have a legit storm to track. Believe me we need this with all the cliff diving going on in recent days.

Who me???

It's way too early for any ledge jumping. Heck look at the calendar it's not even winter yet. Despite the garbage pattern we're in currently, at least it's not a torch. It's just volatile. We can still score on some nickel and dime events despite the unfavorable Pacific. Like I said, once we get into January and beyond things will turn around in our favor. We have the players on the field; split flow jet, above normal SST's, and a low solar minimum. I don't see why we can't lock into a good six weeks of a snowy pattern.

Pattern sucks right now. We have a Pac jet on steroids and a lack of any meaningful blocking. All we have are quick shots of cold air followed by cutters. The only way we can score is with a well positioned SWFE. Hopefully with the impending AO drop it will reshuffle the pattern. In the meantime I'm about ready to punt the rest of December away. On a final note I got a feeling once we get into the heart of winter, the Pac will start to relax and stronger blocking will take hold. It's more likely than not we see a HECS before all is said and done. We just have to be patient.

If it were not for the raging Pacific we would be looking at a Boxing Day redux. On the flip side we have a week for the pattern to hopefully become more favorable. Stronger Greenland blocking and/or the western ridge remaining stout would certainly help. If not for those factors we're going to need great timing to pull it off. At the very least we have a potential big ticket event to track in the coming days.

I think it's safe to say all the warm December forecasts are going to bust badly.

4 inches storm total. At this early juncture of the season I'll take it and run.

GFS is always late for the party.

Looks like the Euro trended snowier/colder from this afternoons run.

Any word on 18Z Euro?

Why do I have the feeling we're going to see a redux of last November's snowstorm. DPW better be on alert with this one. Highly volatile forecast.

Janice Huff has upped snowfall amounts. 3-5 for NYC metro with 5-8 inland. As you get into the I-84 corridor a foot or more.

Any word on the 18z Euro?

I think the snarky remarks are the result of what happened last year with the ensembles calling for a cold/snowy pattern only to go up in smoke as it drew closer. Word of advice Anthony, when it comes to LR forecasts always proceed with caution.