Yanksfan

With the QBO reversal and solar minimum one would think a -NAO would be a dominating feature this winter. I'm at most cautiously optimistic because over the past several years it's been so damn elusive to develop during the heart of winter, only to show up come spring and taunt us.

Don't stress. Better to have this warm pattern now than say mid to late December. Besides other than the random nuisance snow events that could occur this time of the year, we really need everything to align perfectly for anything meaningful to happen. Bottomline once the cold air returns, we'll be in a much better place (climatologically speaking).

Looks like the temp anomaly of planet Tatooine.

GFS coming in colder/snowier for next week's event. Without looking at snow maps it looks like a good hit.

Whatever happened to the old fashioned winters when I was a kid? It would start to turn colder by mid November and more or less stay that way into March minus the week long thaw in January. Damn climate change.

In a way you are. Last winters bust was in large part of a decoupling of the pattern. In other words the pattern that was presented to us did not behave like it normally would in past analog years. That's a big red flag for me. Could it be the changing climate? Perhaps. Already there is confusion with the winter forecasts starting to come out. Some are calling for a front end winter, while others are going backloaded. All I know is we are starting to see more weather extremes occurring. What do I think is going to happen for our area this upcoming winter season? Who knows. To me any plausible scenario is on the table from a 1995/96 redux to an all out torch. At this point we should just wait another month and hope things become much clearer by then.

Models probably underestimated the strength of the block. If only this were January.

Interestinging development. If we put all other weather drivers aside like the NAO and PNA, what ENSO state is more favorable for a productive winter in our area Modoki or Neutral? Reason being I often hear Mets and amateurs alike vouch for each if you want a cold/stormy pattern.

It wouldn't shock me if the upcoming Enso model forecasts show a weak west based Nino. Whatever's the case as usual our winter will hinge on the strength and position of the western ridge and if the elusive Greenland block shows up.

Here I am looking for any posted tidbits for the upcoming winter and its 95 freaking degrees in Newark. Unreal.

Congrats to you and your future wife. It would be fitting if a blizzard occurs on your wedding day.

Potential Gloria redux in the making. Long way to go though.

We're way overdue for a -NAO regime for the winter. With it being so dominate this summer, I've got a good vibe that we finally cash in.

That's why last winter predictions busted so badly and is going to cause forecasting very challenging this winter.

Whatever the reason is it could be a good sign for us. Perhaps the core of the polar vortex will reside on our side of the globe come winter.

You can't catch a break with this rainy weather. Sorry to hear your trip to Wildwood was ruined. I'll be heading down there the day after Labor Day for a few days. Hopefully the weather will hold up.

Yep. We would need stout blocking in place to overcome that firehose. With the lack of any prolonged -NAO regime in recent winters, I'm not holding my breath. Edit... This is purely fantasy talk of course. Winter is still 4 months away!!!

I agree with August. With blocking returning any warm spells will be short lived. We'll see how everything unfolds. As far as next winter is concerned, if the -NAO regime continues to dominate it would be a game changer, since the last several winters have been void of any long term blocking. My fear is the pattern will flip back positive when December rolls around.

I'll be complaining when the pattern flips and the WAR rears its ugly head just in time for winter.

I agree. With the Changing climate, pre June 1st named storms could very well become the norm. I can envision seeing the NHC start the season on May1st in the not so distant future.

Most places were on the fence with this storm. I received 6.5'', but could of easily ended up with much less. That degree or two made all the difference.

6.5'' of heavy wet cement.

Yes i concur. Hello neighbor.

Yes I need to take a look at that map myself. The snowfall map I'm looking at shows me getting 6-7 inches with 1"QPF. I don't think so.

12z Nam is looking really juicy so far...