CAPE

They aren't necessarily the same. A cutoff low is completely separated from the general westerly flow. A cutoff will tend to stall/meander around for a period of time in a particular region. This particular situation is not that.

Winter is coming. Delayed but not denied. March is our time.

Quality trolling. Wonder where she gets that from.

Don't blame the creation of this thread for the apparent death of this wretched 'threat'. Was on life support the instant it showed up on guidance.

It's fun to track this because there isn't anything else, but it has always looked like an inland/at elevation deal for snow imo.

0z EPS has a better h5 look at the end of the run. The big blob of +heights south of the Aleutians weakens and the ridge axis shifts eastward, with a broader trough over the central US.

Probably more likely to shift the other way given the progressive nature of the flow and the ridge behind.

Agreed. The depiction of the actual mean I think is probably close to the best outcome in this case. It would get good precip into the favored areas for frozen. The scenarios that keep the better precip more southeastward or have a weaker system overall would likely just produce rain/slop.

The 0z EPS offers the most workable scenario for snow in our general region. The evolution and track would place significant precip in the higher terrain where it could actually snow given the lack of cold. Verbatim the mean is not bad for the NW burbs either, but again, those temps. This has always been a very low probability period for frozen in the lowlands.

Nah. Still locked in the perpetual 'we completely suck for snow' portion.

Da mean fwiw

Ends as light rain on WB. TT ptype is awful for a snow weenie lol.

The signal for frozen on the 6z GEFS(east of the mountains) ticked up a bit- 'highest' in VA west and south of DC. There are 7 members that suggest measurable snow in our general region, with differences in the exact placement. Clearly places inland at elevation would be favored in such a marginal setup- if it actually precipitates at a decent rate in those areas.

Polar Vortex destruction!

It's a long shot. You got that part right. Head to the western highlands if you want a legit shot at a white SB Sunday. That has consistently been the signal for this period on the means. Nothing has changed.

Hell of a signal on the GEFS.

A couple photos from Terrapin yesterday. Bit of ice from the brief cold shot. Won't be seeing this again anytime soon as it looks now.

Be sure to check out his latest blog this week to find out!

51 here. Nice day and milder days to come this week. Bring it. Working on pond destruction to replace an old leaky liner. Not a fun job lol.

After our typical crappy/underperforming winters, most are mentally in a place to move on and that ideally means warmer and nicer weather. That is rarely how it goes in reality though. I thought last Spring and the transition into early Summer was about as good as it gets. Most of the time it shifts pretty quickly from chilly/damp miserable to warm and humid grossness.

The ens means have backed off over recent runs on any notable improvement in the longwave pattern for the long range. Hints of NAO help have disappeared for now, and the AO also remains positive. The atmospheric block that persists is the one we don't want, and not seeing signs of it weakening or shifting in a meaningful way at this point. There will be transient cold-ish shots behind cutters over the next couple weeks, so our best shot at frozen will probably be a well timed shortwave in the wake. Inland areas at elevation obviously have the best chance at lucking into something.

The disrupted Strat PV Hail Mary!! for March. Then it would need to couple to the troposphere and result in a significant -AO to be useful. Running out of time.

I'll get you that 120 now. Then I will show you the path to early Spring.

Inherently there is little margin for warming at our latitude to still get snow. Central/N NE are warmer too, but still pretty snowy. If this is the new normal for awhile, might be time to move for those who can't be content with a couple decent snow years per decade.

Did it really 'say' that? Or is that your interpretation.