CAPE

ICON wins.

Ravens might have had a chance if they weren't so generous. Defense has been stout. 4 turnovers tho..

Hundley time?

Ravens are resting players today, mostly on offense, including Huntley and Dobbins. Lots of inactives. I guess they don't want to 'show' the Bengals too much lol. They will probably get a 21 point lead then pull some of their starters.

Once we lose the mechanism for direct transport of Pacific air into our nearby source region, as well as into the Western US, I think we can get back to average temps pretty quickly. It will take a little time to get cold/dry cP air into a position where it can easily influence our weather and get involved when a storm approaches.

That's possible. For now I will stay optimistic. Almost all of the extended guidance indicates some persistence with below average temps by the end of the month and especially into early February. If it ends up another mirage, so be it.

I'll enjoy the winter we have. Perfect day to be outside doing pretty much anything.

Dawn with frost/mist on the farm field behind the property.

28 Been awhile.

On a positive note, all ensemble guidance continues to depict a pretty rapid transition to a more favorable h5 pattern just beyond mid month. We reload and try again.

It's not going to be easy to get favorable 'trends' for a better outcome at our latitude outside of the higher terrain. The entire continental US and much of Canada is flooded with a mix of mP/mT air. Locate the cP air. TPV lobes are too poleward and transient 50-50 lows won't do much good in this case as even that 'cold' there in eastern Canada is not very cold.

Ofc because NWS will rarely completely disregard the GFS and when it is the lone consistently snowy or colder model it never wins. And it lost again lol.

My forecast has the generic rain/snow with a half inch or less.

Quite the detailed disco from Mount Holly on this weak little pos system that is our best hope for snow to this point and going forward(sadly). We talking.. Dynamic cooling. Snippet from the afternoon AFD- An initially cool and dry airmass in place across the area will be overtaken by weak warm advection into Sunday evening as heights begin to fall and broad upper diffluence spreads over the area. Light precipitation is expected to spread into the region during the evening hours, generally from southwest to northeast. Given the subtle and broad forcing mechanisms and marginal thermal profiles with this system, confidence remains fairly low on exactly how the precipitation types (rain or snow) and amounts will evolve. That being said, current indications in the guidance are that there will be a period of snow across portions of the area, especially at the onset of precipitation before the warm advection begins switching the precip type over to mostly rain from south to north into the urban corridor. Precipitation is currently expected to start mainly as light snow near the Philly metro and mainly as light rain farther south across a line from near Kent Island to Dover to Cape May. However, if any banding or stronger intensity of precipitation occurs to the south, some will probably snow mix in early in the event farther to the south near the aforementioned line due to dynamic cooling. The thermal profiles will support a rain or snow precip type, and little to no sleet or freezing rain is expected. The precipitation may come in two waves, first during the evening and a second overnight during the predawn hours. In any case, the thermal profiles will begin to support mainly rain in the Philly metro and south with rain and snow possible farther north into the early morning hours. Although again, any heavier/banded precip that develops could change rain back over to snow due to dynamic cooling. This could lower surface temperatures just enough for additional light accumulation in grassy and elevated surfaces. North of the Philly metro and I-95 corridor, and especially north of I-78, the biggest question is how far north does the accumulating precipitation get. The antecedent airmass will be fairly dry, so as forcing decreases to the north, the QPF should as well. We currently have the higher QPF near the Philly metro and areas to the south generally ranging from a tenth to two tenths of an inch. We are currently forecasting less than an inch of snow for the entire forecast area for Sunday night. If more intense or banded precipitation develops near the Philly metro or areas to the north, snow duration and thus amounts may be locally higher than we currently have advertised.

Not much chance it develops until offshore. There is so much relative warmth surrounding the storm it takes that long for any notable cold on the backside to get to that point and create enough of a thermal boundary to initiate a low forming. Plus the longwave pattern is very progressive, so it's moving away as it develops.

Since the Pacific flow regime predominates with embedded ARs, a place like Truckee would be pretty good for consistent snow.

Probably modify expectations or move to a place that has a consistent mechanism for snow, even in milder patterns.

Progression of the longwave pattern continues to look more favorable beyond mid month on the ens means.

I could see this ending up a nice snowstorm for the western highlands at least. For the lowlands the tendency for HP to slide off the coast will just enhance the SE flow off the ocean ahead of the approaching low. If the phase occurs later and a more clean transfer to a coastal low occurs, there could be some frozen associated with that even for the coastal plain. The 6z GFS sort of hints at that.

6z GFS actually does do that to some extent. The ridge is broader/further east, the timing and character of the NS shortwave dropping down over the top is different, and the phase occurs later/further east

Well we grasping at straws at this point lol. Still far enough out that the guidance could be in error with the timing of the phase and position/amplitude of the ridge.

Now that all guidance is depicting a phasing of the 2 shortwaves, I think we need the PNA ridge (that is progressing eastward) to be more progressive- further east so the phase occurs later. No amount of temporary confluence out in front is going to help much with marginal cold and a wrapped up bowling ball with southerly winds driving warm air up the east coast.

Not likely lol

Without getting too much into 'that', I have accepted (esp in my location) that the marginal events that used to work are going to be mostly rain now(we shall see about a moderate Nino with blocking. If that doesn't work..). Thus why I root for PNA/big -EPO pattern and cross polar flow. Didn't used to need that- but now, maybe. Plus in recent winters those type patterns have worked out pretty good for the MA coastal plain. New normal maybe. Not a big snow pattern, but I don't care so much about that. When we do get the cold periods, I will gladly take cold powder moderate snow events followed by more Arctic cold and temps near zero. My idea of winter.

An extended solar minimum and a few major volcanic eruptions and we are good to go.