CAPE

28 here this morning. Looking forward to my snow TV. Forecast here is for less than an inch. Looks like a better chance for an inch+ SE of here if low level temps cooperate.

Look at the difference between the 0z Euro and 6z GFS at h5 in southern Canada. Most of the energy in that vortex over the southern tip of Hudson Bay phases in to the developing 50-50 low on the Euro, while on the GFS it stays there and does us no favors. CMC gets it out of the way somewhat differently, with some of it getting absorbed into the trough digging southward in western Canada, and the rest of the energy shifts into the 50-50 location. Ends up with a similar look to the Euro up top.

Verbatim the 0z EPS looks pretty good for the NW burbs.

The 0z Euro improved in just about every way. One thing I have not liked overall on guidance is too many vortices flying around across Canada, with a lack of high pressure from the GLs into eastern Canada. The 0z Euro depicts a more distinct NAO block and a well defined 50-50 low, and finally some HP showing up in eastern Canada aided by the converging/confluent flow into the 50-50 vortex. Ofc there is also a stronger, more distinct southern shortwave this run. Much better look up top aloft and at the surface.

Yeah, but the general trend isn't too good.

This is where we were for HH yesterday, with frozen targeting our region.

Not exactly what we were hoping for on the mean.

Dude I am waiting with bated breath, clicking refresh every 5 seconds. I can't not know if the mean thinks it will sleet in his yard.

Pretty warm. Would be close for the NW burbs verbatim. Better in the highlands and up in PA. Good enough at this range.

Slightly better than 6z, with still quite a bit of spread. No I am not looking at the damn snow maps.

Need some decent lift to get the rates needed to cool the surface and overcome the insolation. That may happen in a rather small area. Overall it looks like generally light precip. Too bad on the timing.

Depends on criteria I guess. Still has the trailing wave idea and that's what gives us snow in the GFS scenario. There is a signal for stronger LP to our NW on the 6z run though, which aligns with the warmer/rainy members. Probably is a slight step back, but it doesn't really matter much at this point. We really need the Euro to get more onboard. We know how this goes otherwise.

lol that would be nice.

See my previous post on the 0z EPS vs GEFS. If you look at the MSLP anomaly on the 0z EPS the most prominent low is north of the Great lakes on March 4th.

On the 6z GEFS about half the members are mostly or all rain, the other half have at least some snow. 4 or 5 pretty big hits. Not seeing any signal for suppressed south at this point. Still plenty of uncertainty-

For that period the advertised NAO ridge position/50-50 low doesn't look suppressive to me. There are other modes of failure that are more likely, mostly stemming from our friend out west.

The NAO squashing it won't be the problem.

Correct. We can only have a feeling.

The fundamental difference between the Euro/EPS and GEFS is the former reamps the Aleutian ridge (as the NAO ridge is retrograding west) pinching off the TPV and digging a new western trough southward a bit sooner. The initial trough can't separate enough, and some of the energy within it is influenced/absorbed by the new trough. GFS/GEFS allows the initial trough to get out in front and move eastward with little to no interaction, and there is a signal for a distinct surface low moving towards the east coast. If we are gonna get screwed (again), ofc it will be the horrid pacific that will do it lol.

Close, but earlier. It was December 2009. I think I did Dec 1 to Dec 20 or something.

Technically I think it is 2/3 of a month in an epic wither.

It is a composite for a month of an epic winter.

Never fails.