CAPE

I'm gonna go ahead and name this the ji storm You said the 28th right? Gonna be close.

As currently advertised, this window may be our best shot. A low tracks to our NW and combines with a spoke of vorticity rotating southward off the TPV, and then heads towards Atlantic Canada. That looks to finally push the boundary far enough south for the following wave to produce some frozen precip.

Probably an OT thing.

Scientific debate does occur- among scientists. No one cares about Ji's opinion lol. Facts matter. Truthiness- not so much.

It's on the way out, but difficult to say if late winter will behave any differently than typical. Next winter perhaps we shall see.

Which is what I said. It is far from ideal, but how do we know it won't actually be better than advertised? A bit stronger ridge poking into the NAO space/stronger TPV influence and the SE ridge is further suppressed. That would make a big difference. To be clear, I am not hunting anything close to a KU- that is completely unrealistic. Give me a decent wave riding the boundary for 3-6. I know your goal is reaching somewhere close to your climo avg of 40", and you sit at zero currently. That sucks. Maybe lower your expectations significantly. Some snow is way better than none. The advertised pattern offers chances for frozen in our region.

Just think of how much mud they have there though.

You think this is a 'close the blinds' look? Come on dude.

How about we keep the discussion focused on what's just ahead of us- that is the purpose of this thread after all. Guidance is advertising a pattern going forward that is significantly more favorable than where we are now, meaning snow is actually possible lol. It's more fun to try and hone in on the potential periods that may lead to something fruitful. Be optimistic/glass half full and shit like that. If it doesn't work out- oh well, life goes on.

I am sitting here drinking an imperial stout, waiting for NFL playoff football to commence, and watching this. http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee Full screen it and you can pretend you are looking out the window(a little alcohol helps).

34 here now and still overcast. Was looking forward to the forecast of partly sunny and near 40.

There's your front end thump for the northwest crew.

It was interesting/eye opening, but in the here and now, we have to deal with the reality of similar h5 patterns producing somewhat different(less desirable) results.

I was looking at h5 composites for the winters of the 1960s this morning, which were mostly -NAO, and a mixture of neutral/Nina/Nino. Holy crap the negative anomalies into the mid latitudes many of those years were nuts. Hard to imagine seeing something like that today.

The chances for frozen will likely come when a more amplified low (or 2) track up towards the GLs and drag the thermal boundary southeastward behind, and we get a well timed wave- like you showed earlier on the 6z GFS. It tried to do the same thing for the 23rd but the trailing wave damped as the spacing was a bit too tight.

Low solar activity and a lot of -NAO years.

It just can't know yet.

Triggered by Tony Pann lol.

Has this dude always been a bit of a dick? Or is it just his 'victory lap' from the recent pathetic battle with the NE snow weenies?

Big -EPO with cross polar flow in a progressive regime. Legit cold air with baroclinic boundary just offshore. When that doesn't happen for several years the immediate coast won't see snow.

We did pretty good with a storm in March of 18, and I believe that was also a Nina transitioning neutral.

I still think the 22nd presents a chance. GEFS is a tad warm but has had a strong signal. Both the EPS and CMC ens are colder and suggest a suppressed wave.

lol you would think. Waves running the boundary with cold pressing seems to be the simplest way given the pattern progression as depicted. Pretty persistent hints of that on the means beyond the 20th. Eff anything complicated or amped.

Agreed. Wrt the SER and WAR 'concern' posts, there is going to be some degree of that without a doubt. Some -NAO action will help counter it.

I am sure the gloom and doom meter will be higher once folks see the latest ens means in the LR lol. It's way out there, but probably the most likely progression, and the extended products have been depicting it. Not an awful look(typical Nina), and it is just a smoothed mean- the actual longwave pattern will vary. We aren't likely going to see some classically favorable h5 pattern lock in at this juncture. Chances will come in the usual ways- well timed wave on the the backside of a bigger storm with the boundary pulled south, front end snow to mix etc.