CAPE
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That look is pretty similar to my profile pic. Any guesses?
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Maybe we can end this lame winter with a bang around mid month. The pattern as advertised would be mature. We have a -AO/NAO. -EPO/WPO. Only the PNA sucks. This h5 look is pretty uniform across guidance, including the extended products.
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Not hating it. we shall see. 8+ days to go?
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This looks really good.
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Pretty good chance, since it has been alternating between 'completely gone' and 'kinda there' for several runs now lol.
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That is always a relatively uncomplicated way to get it done. This is different than the shitty pattern we have been mired in for 2 months though. Pretty close to textbook- even has a bit of a ridge out west.
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I would have to agree, I mean, look how much snow we (don't) have at this point.
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The 12z GEFS was hinting at this.
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Given where the Euro is, this is probably not a bad thing.
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The jinx isn't real. Irrational. If it were, Justin Tucker would miss a lot more kicks.
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It can happen. 2018. Something like the St Patrick's day storm of 2014 (or 2015?) was very cold and not likely to occur given the character of this "winter".
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Pretty similar progression from the end of recent GEFS runs. Very similar to GEFSx.
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Needed a place to discuss, even as we know it will be an utter fail.
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Made it to 70 here. I see bugs.
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As you might imagine, not much of a signal for frozen on the EPS.
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The perfect moderator.
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67 here. Very nice.
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CMC was sort of in-between the GFS and Euro.
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Yep a true block requires both. Can see it on the op runs too. The vortices get 'stuck' and turn back westward underneath. Lows screaming through the 50-50 region mostly don't work.
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We got the general look. There is the trailing wave.
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Started seeing it at 18z yesterday when it became very favorable for SNE. With the primary getting that far north, would need it to be weaker to have a realistic shot down here- need the coastal to get going sooner and strengthen closer to the coast.
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Still lots of spread for the March 4 deal. Looks like a trailing wave similar to the op. Lead wave goes NW and is too warm. Best signal for frozen on the mean is from sw to central VA into northern NC.
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The strongest signal for frozen on the GEFS is here. Probably should start to pay a bit more attention to this, especially for those that are further NE in our region.
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60 here. 3km NAM and HRRR have a high of 64 and 68 respectively. Forecast high of 75...maybe not.
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Nice shellacking along I-95 corridor.
