CAPE

The cutter torches the lower levels, and when it exits the legit cold/thermal boundary remains pretty far to our west/NW. That's where the following wave is going to develop, and drags the cold southeastward behind it this run. It isn't that far from being workable for places inland, like some previous runs.

Females survive winter by a form of hibernation. Not uncommon to see a few come out during milder periods.

That example was from a pattern that produced a KU, but many of the significant snow events for the MA lowlands have that general look. More recent example is the March 2018 storm. eta- also an example of HP being 'locked in place' , vs a progressive flow regime where HP is steadily moving as the area of upper level convergence/confluence that induced it moves with the flow. Need even more luck with timing.

Classic example. Maybe someday we will see this setup again.

14 A week of 50s to near 60 ahead. Might have to larvicide early this year.

Yeah continuing to see hints, especially on the EPS and CMC ens, of a somewhat improved h5 pattern for beyond mid month.

0z GEFS has the cutter late next week, then there are a handful of members that suggest coastal low development for next weekend. 3 or 4 manage to snow on us. Weak signal for frozen. EPS depicts a more clearly defined separation between the late week storm and a developing coastal low just beyond that. A good chunk of the members suggest trailing energy along the boundary, while others have some sort of secondary development from the lead system. Temps look very marginal on the mean until after most of the precip exits. Modest signal for frozen outside of the western higher terrain.

It's a general symptom of a not so good pattern. When we have a favorable pattern (NA block) there is a tendency for more HP around the lakes into eastern Canada(lower heights east of there), with disturbances approaching from the SW. What we are dealing with lately is largely the antithesis.

Morons can be 'entertaining' if engaged. Jordan Klepper knows how to do it.

12z EPS has a coastal storm look but not cold enough. A decent signal for frozen for the western highlands at this point.

The idea that a 1042 high is bullied by some wimpy low because it moves with the flow is amusing lol.

Head to Chesapeake and Maine for HH. If they have the Wake Up WWS get it. Incredible on tap.

Impressive squall at Rehoboth.

time sensitive https://www.visitdebeaches.com/live-webcams/rehoboth-beach-boardwalk-webcam/

Radar returns look impressive over the DE Bay into SNJ.

Some flakes flying here but nothing like the flizzard that accompanied the Dec Avocado assault.

lol just messing with ya. There is some hope on the means for a better h5 look beyond mid month.

I just think there is bit too much redundancy/overlap between the medium/LR thread and the thread you created for analyzing the 'why' it isn't snowing lately. The doom and gloom is typical given the winter we have had to this point, but the combination tends to overwhelm the LR thread, esp after each "bad" op run cycle. Sometimes reading through the thread at those times it's like fuck, how about just NOT posting anything lol. That's not directed at you btw.

The 0z ens runs were hinting especially the EPS. Lets see if that continues for a few cycles.

It's all good. I am not bothered by whatever is said in general. I mostly post when I see a bit of an opening for something to occur in the overall crappy pattern, or hints of some favorable changes going forward. Otherwise I just tune out and do other things. The constant gloom/doom and perpetual analysis of the 'bad' is fatiguing lol.

And the first couple weeks of March. Outside of a few recent cases, late March is usually meh, and for the lowlands April is Fuhgeddaboudit.

6z GEFS kind of likes the trailing wave idea for late next weekend as the boundary is dragged southward behind the late week storm. This is a way we can score a 1-3 type deal in an overall crud pattern.

Mods should consider merging this with the 'Is It Ever going to Snow Again' thread. Kinda hard to discern the difference.

Hinting. Baby steps. My glimmer of hope post for the day. Now y'all can carry on with the negative vibe.