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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one.
  2. CAPE
    Blowing Rock
  3. CAPE
    Radical look lol. (not base state)
  4. CAPE
    It might. I think the current Nina/PDO/TNH combo is also just an unfavorable base state for our region- all probably exacerbated by that other thing.
  5. CAPE
    Yeah we will have to see how the pattern progresses. Hopefully we get a relaxation of the Pacific Pig ridge in conjunction with a -NAO period, but the current pattern has been persistent since early Jan.
  6. CAPE
    Very end of the month into the first few days of March still looks like our next best shot. Pretty weak signal for frozen on the GEFS and EPS though. Root for the CMC ens mean. Beyond that, who knows. Maybe the SSW will save us, but I doubt it. This Nina/TNH pattern seems locked in.
  7. CAPE
    Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO! We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March.
  8. CAPE
    Thanks, but this weird hobby is a group effort.
  9. CAPE
    @Ralph Wiggum Attack of the Avocados! Plenty of snow well offshore. Who has a big boat?
  10. CAPE
    Those 3 are really just one- the persistently strong Aleutian ridge. Until that dies or shifts, the other 2 remain. We have seen plenty of evidence it cannot be mitigated by a transient -NAO or 50-50 lows. I don't see a legit sustained west-based block setting up anytime soon, and it is debatable if that would have the impact we need.
  11. CAPE
    Hell of a pattern here on the Euro weeklies. First time there is decent PNA with no hint of a SE ridge, AND a -NAO. April is gonna kick azz.
  12. CAPE
    Lets get 3 consecutive Ninos and see where we are. All Modoki ofc.
  13. CAPE
    I look at it as a logic gate- NOT summer. A few months of enjoying the outdoors without being harassed by bugs and sweating like a pig is a win.
  14. CAPE
    As it stands now on the ens means, our next best opportunity lies in this window. Yes, the perpetual 10+ days away, and this chance will probably vanish in about 5 days, to be replaced by another "promising look" 10 days later.
  15. CAPE
    Making a move to a location with a "slightly better" climo in our general region probably won't make much difference at this point lol. Hell it doesn't even snow on Mount PSU anymore. Need to move to the western highlands to notice a significant difference.
  16. CAPE
    No notable signal for frozen in our region on the 12z EPS until the very end of the month. Only about 2 weeks away! Time for a new 'March will be rocking' LR thread? Maybe there is another word that can be substituted for rocking.
  17. CAPE
    This is our chance! GEFSX and Euro weeklies look better.
  18. CAPE
    The extended products depict a favorable pattern progression into early March, weakening the Aleutian ridge with the PNA trending neutral/ positive, suppressed/absent SE ridge, and a negative NAO(on the GEFSx and EPS weeklies). H5 looks really good for mid March period.
  19. CAPE
    It's going to be difficult to mitigate a persistent extremely negative PNA/ SE ridge without a legitimate -NAO. The depiction on guidance in the LR has a slightly negative NAO with the ridge displaced too far north/east. Have to see how that evolves going forward but as advertised that won't help much.
  20. CAPE
    Let's hope Lamar is still here. I hear Derek Carr is available.
  21. CAPE
    It's still a relatively weak signal at this point. The majority of members have a low tracking NW for this period. 4 or 5 have a coastal with significant snow.
  22. CAPE
    New edition of the weeklies isn't bad at all at h5 though. Not sure I would say it went in the wrong direction. The last run was ultra weenie and not likely to transpire.
  23. CAPE
    The last edition of the weeklies was useless as it was initialized off a run where the EPS went all in on HL block forming. The next run it went right back to blue up top.
  24. CAPE
    GEFS has a -NAO beginning to take shape at the end of the run. Still a relatively mild look for the east verbatim. We shall see how the pattern evolves going forward if the NA is indeed improving. Would help if the Pac cooperates a little.
  25. CAPE
    The last couple runs of the GEFS suggests the cold comes in before the moisture departs on Friday. Maybe a few flakes in the air?
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