CAPE

Guidance doesn't appear to be 'can kicking' this time. This period is looking better.

Not verbatim per an op run, but at the beginning stages of a pattern change, yeah this general idea is how it could work.

The 0z GFS shows how it could work for that period, with a couple storms that track NW, incrementally bringing some colder air southward, followed by a trailing wave that digs further south on the 10th.

I think Weather Will is 'willing' this one into existence lol. I just pointed out how it could work based on ensemble model depiction of h5 progression. Latest guidance still hinting things could get a little more interesting as early as the 8-10 window. My guess is mid month is probably more realistic, esp for the lowlands.

Love hiking when the soil is frozen. Having clean shoes are nice, but the feel/sound of walking on it just adds to the whole experience of being out in a crisp, cold airmass that originated way up north.

lol Just effing with HI-Z a bit. He has a tendency to pop in here and make posts without reading any of the thread convo that came prior. If he had, I bet he would have made a different post- one that adds something to what has already been discussed.

I see a forecast low of 15 for your area. 13 for here.

Moderating Arctic Chill. High of 28.

Thanks! None of us had a clue there could be any potential for this period. It has not been discussed at all here.

Plus there actually is still a light coating of snow in places. Went to the store yesterday a few miles SW of my yard and by the looks of it, the flizzard there was clearly a little heavier.

Same here. Quite pretty.

For the period just beyond the GEFS run. Continuation of the improving pattern depicted on the ens mean. From there it gets better. (see above)

Latest GEFSX for mid to late Jan. I'll take that pattern for prime cold/snow climo period.

It only goes out to the 10th lol. And as advertised on the 6z GEFS temps are right about average at that point, with colder air lurking in central Canada. -EPO/WPO and +PNA h5 look.

Low of 9.

I guess we should take solace knowing that SNE also got skunked. That really doesn't work for me lol.

December is now eternally a Fall month here. Sure we get an Arctic blast with a few days of anomalous cold, but it could only happen with mild rain ahead of it, and cold and dry behind. We excel at this.

14 here coming up on 7pm. Was just outside bringing in more firewood, and it is pretty darn nice now that the wind has died down. I could stand out there and sip on a bourbon. If only there was a few inches of snow otg. Temp would easily drop to zero tonight.

This is not a bad setup as advertised leading into the potential 'WB WW Storm' around the 8th as the pattern is in transition. The blob of +heights over the east consolidates over Hudson Bay(a look that used to work for us) as the AK vortex begins to retrograde. In response a ridge pops in the SW, as heights are also building in the EPO domain. As this occurs, a piece of energy is shed off from the western trough as it lifts north, and this wave progresses eastward under the Hudson "Block". There also happens to be an upper low passing through the 50-50 position as the shortwave approaches. Wayyy out there and ofc it won't evolve quite this way, but it does indicate that the pattern could be favorable enough for a trackable event as early as the 8th-12th window. Most likely this would not yet be cold enough verbatim, and would probably track somewhat inland. Not a bad signal on the 12z GEFS for something potentially wintry though. Obv subject to much change at this range, better or worse.

Ravens are saving their secret passing attack for the playoffs.

High of 19. Currently 18.

The ens means in the LR and the extended products indicate the progression to a more favorable pattern will be focused on the Pacific with a +PNA/-EPO look emerging towards the 10th. That's a pretty good way to get some cold back to our nearby source region quickly. It looks like the AO will be around neutral, and the NAO slightly positive to neutral, at least initially. Perhaps later in January and into Feb there will be another -NAO period.

9 here at 6am

Another view, slightly different plot. This is the 500 mb mean, minus the anomaly. You can see the NH longwave pattern. Note the Aleutian ridge and downstream trough (typical Nina), and downstream from that there is a western US ridge(somewhat flat), then the eastern trough and NAO ridge. On these data plots when you select "anomaly", if the h5 heights in a given area are normal, or very slightly anomalously high or low, there is no indication(coloration).

Needs a N to NNW trajectory.