CAPE

I think they will have to given the likely impacts on seeding/home field. Probably cancel the useless pro bowl and shift the playoffs back a week.

Getting a useful 50-50 low in a progressive pattern is a bit of a crapshoot. Not the same has having a low there stuck under a block.

The late Sunday into Monday wave has some potential for a little frozen for the northern edge of our region. A little adjustment in that NS vorticity sliding across Hudson Bay and this could be a little colder/further south.

Agree. That is an active look verbatim, and even better if we get a little help in the NAO domain.

Not sure on that, but it has been pretty consistent with a signal around mid month, as has the GEFS. The mean low position is a tad offshore which is pretty typical in a progressive pattern. The exact position/amplitude of the western ridge as it shifts east will be critical.

Latest GEFSX indicates that the persistent trough off the west coast will shift eastward with a ridge building in the PNA/EPO space for late Jan. There are hints of that at the end of the latest GEFS runs. Perhaps an indication of the MJO forcing shifting into the western Pac, with some modulation of the Pacific jet. The general HL look is also better, with hints of a -NAO.

The fast, rather zonal flow tends to produce weak waves with little chance for surface development, so the chances of seeing anything of significance over the weekend looks pretty low. The wave for early next week looks to have a bit more potential across guidance(esp the CMC op). Temperature issues ofc. Late next week into the weekend continues to look like the best window for a combination of a stronger event with some decent cold- the signal for frozen precip on the ens means is clearly the highest during that period.

The initial wave this weekend looks like it's going to be squeezed underneath the ridge breaking over the top- the vorticity gets stretched out into an elongated ribbon as it moves east. Limited potential with that one imo. The second one for early next week has a bit more potential for coastal development depending on the timing of that NS vort digging down, shown below on the 18z GFS. A little too 'behind' this run. Later in the week, we shall see, but the general evolution on the 18z run is intriguing with the previous wave acting as a 50-50 low. Looks cold enough, but just a bit suppressed. We got some chances. Timing and exact location of the waves is super critical with progressive flow.

We got some blue on a GFS op run with shit temps. The snow maps look good tho. Golden!

Yes. It isn't that important. And the Ravens aren't likely going to win a playoff game regardless of what their seeding is with a HS level passing game.

We all torching.

In this set up with the advertised lack of available cold, probably not. This is a case where a modest wave or being on the western edge of an offshore low probably wouldn't work out that well for the coastal plain.

Seems like folks should just chill a bit at this point. Everyone here knows by now what's on the table from the 10th to about the 16th at this juncture, and that cold will be marginal. Keep seeing the same maps and comments posted over and over again every model cycle, and there really isn't anything new to report lol.

The blown leads in the early part of the season were squarely on the defense. Lately the offense just can't score, and often it's worse in the second half. Puts more pressure on the defense, which has improved, but is far from dominant.

Huntley is extremely limited as a passer. Roman sucks as always. The Steelers owned the lined of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Ravens run D was soft, and the OL was mediocre at best.

Way way far away and up real high, to Manchester Md. Just a guess.

Weakening NIna with ENSO neutral favored moving forward into Feb, plus we have seen the atmosphere exhibit Nino tendencies to this point. Mostly overly simplistic 'thinking' from certain twitter weather geeks imo.

The ridge amplifying and breaking over the top pulls that vorticity lobe underneath, then the amplifying ridge behind kicks it east and it goes negative in time for some surface development off the coast, but it's a bit too far north for us. Lots going on and the flow is progressive, but it works out for NE this time.

0z EPS suggests multiple chances between the 10th and 15th. General signals are there but members are all over the place on evolution as expected. For now it seems like the storm mentioned on the op run at 240 is favored to track NW at least initially, then possible coastal development. Around the 15th there appears to be another opportunity with a colder look and a possible coastal storm in a more favorable location. eta- the latter appears to be mixed between something cutting west, some sort of Miller B, or possibly another wave(along the coast) right after on the members. Too far out to get into specifics obv. There are chances with a trend towards colder mid month.

Next to nothing. The available cold is marginal late next week, so a progressive, weak wave might produce a light sprinkle or mangled flake in the lowlands.

Lmao there is barely any precip. Where there is in the mountains with some upslope it's snow as depicted, but due to the fast flow/positively tilted/damping wave, it just dries up east of there.

lol you seem to have a lot of misconceptions about this. I kinda hate the labels myself, but based on the definitions that are used, we get plenty of snow from miller B/hybrid events.

Suggestive of a coastal storm around the 15th from a shortwave that sheds off the retrograding trough and tracks eastward as the PNA ridge pops. Implies some sort of a Miller B evolution per surface pressure and precip panels. Pretty strong signal at this range.