CAPE
-
Posts
36,289 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by CAPE
-
The advertised 500mb pattern progression continues to look more favorable towards mid month. Hard to nitpick the HL look with a -AO/NAO, and the EPO trending negative. Key features end up in good locations- lower heights in the 50-50 region, an Aleutian low, and a TPV lobe over Hudson underneath the block.
-
Yeah the 6z GEFS is very similar to 0z wrt track, temps, precip. At this point places west of I-95 and esp further west look favored for a mostly or all snow event. Lotta runs to go. We got something legit to track finally.
-
Not sure about that. There are subtle differences. The 50-50 low is not as strong/consolidated, and a tad further north. The overall evolution and outcome meteorologically is the same, but obv some major differences wrt the outcome we are interested in. I have been planning to take a trip to Canaan sometime in Jan, so this might be the time.
-
A big difference at h5 can be seen comparing these 2 panels. Not as much NS energy involvement on the 6z run at this point.
-
it really is a disease.
-
Bit of a tradeoff. The stronger/closer 50-50 low is largely what's damping the wave/ keeping it more suppressed on the mean. Not really worth doing more analysis, as there are many more model cycles to go.
-
HH GEFS is further southeast with the low and a bit weaker. Decreased spacing wrt both the 50-50 low and the next wave out west are the most obvious reason on the mean. After thoroughly enjoying a 120, I'm not at all interested in poring over the members for further detail. The mean still implies frozen into the MA. On to the next run.
-
It phases with what's left of the 50-50 from the Jan 4th wave, which then reinforces the positive h5 heights over GL. That's the basic mechanism of an atmospheric block, and what keeps it sustained for a period of time.
-
Only subtle differences in the upper levels and the overall evolution for the Jan 7th event the last 2 GFS runs. Nice to see such consistency in back to back op runs at this stage.
-
Ends up mostly rain but another step in the right direction for that period, which looked like a pure cutter with mild rain a couple runs ago.
-
That's a legit block with surface HP wedging south.
-
This is probably somewhere between a squirrel and a moose.
-
This is pretty.
-
I get it. I am 'hunting' snow chances. Don't care if its a squirrel or a moose. All good.
-
lol we know dude.
-
I made a post focusing on number 2, which I believe to be the biggest difference on the 12z run compared to the previous few, where the resulting surface low was weak and easily damped as it moved further NE into the upper confluence zone on the back side of the 50-50 vortex. A bit more spacing there helps, but we need a deep surface low to make this work. The 50-50 feature has been there, and has looked impressively strong. Yes it will vary somewhat from run to run.
-
Hell no dude. Pay attention. That's not a real -NAO. It was enhanced by an extension of the WAR!
-
A strong 50-50 low is good, but the orientation/position is important. Improvement there on the 12z run. Also improvement out west. Both relatively subtle, but gained some spacing on both ends. To me the biggest difference has to do with the shortwave itself, resulting in a deeper surface low.
-
lol I'm not going anywhere. I just do my thing, and read the posts I find value adding.
-
The shortwave is stronger/sharper, with just enough interaction at the right time with NS vorticity. Also a bit more separation from the 50/50-ish vortex.
-
I think I need a break. The Bob Chill variety.
-
You heard it. That pattern can't work. Pray/root hard for a ++NAO.
-
He is probably referring to this period when the trough digs into the central US and forces a ridge up into eastern Canada. The NAO ridge is established prior to that occurring though.
-
Pretty close match to the EPS h5 look for that timeframe. More impressive -NAO signal on the EPS though.
-
A bit further north than the previous 2 runs. 7 days out so still uncertainty on the exact details. Potential for a moderate event for parts of the region with some spacing adjustments.
