CAPE

Not consistent across guidance, and only a weak signal on the GEFS to this point. That said, the advertised h5 look starts to improve around this time so not out of the question there could be something trackable towards the 25th.

It was some sort of Nino, but I don't recall the strength. It was weird and the atmosphere acted more like a Neutral iirc. I don't think it was a modoki though. I brought up 2016 because of the NAO block, and it produced a big storm.

This has been the expectation. If we are to see a more favorable pattern, it would be the last few days of Feb into early March. Latest GEFS runs have the AO and NAO trending towards neutral by day 15, so it makes sense the GEFSx continues it.

Just a chilly rain now. Temp holding at 36.

Sleeting pretty hard now. Light coating on the deck.

36 with light sleet/rain mix at onset. Probably last 5 mins, but frozen precip!

As modeled, the SPV is not a happy camper by the end of the month. What impacts that will have on our sensible weather going forward remains to be seen. Looks plenty cold across Canada on the means, but the h5 response we want is for the AO and NAO to trend negative in order to get the cold further southward and the shift the boundary to our south. Seeing that idea to some degree on the GEFS, as well as some of the extended products.

It worked a couple years before that in Jan 2016. We have had a run with multiple Ninas and shitty neutrals since then. We need a mod Nino.

Yeah the end of the GEFS run looks like an actual NAO dipole/rex block is getting established, following the GFS op. Good signs the last few runs. We shall see.

This depiction may very well be completely wrong on the 18z GFS at D15, but why would snow be possible given that low track on this run? Have not seen anything like that this winter. Should be mild rain with a weak pos High running away! Answer is (as advertised) a legit -NAO, with a 'captured' 50-50 vortex, and surface HP locked in. That low track would be further south if not for the awful pacific, and it probably would be anyway with a legit block. Op runs have been hinting -NAO lately towards the end of the month(also seeing it suggested on the ensembles). Maybe it IS still meteorologically possible for a NA block to work in somewhat mitigating a significantly -PNA, at least within a model simulation lol. Hopefully we will get to find out.

The advertised h5 pattern on the big 3 global ens means in the LR, in conjunction with the extended products going forward, suggests we may have one last chance with a workable longwave pattern. The general window looks to be Feb 25- March 10. Beyond that climo degrades and some of the extended products shift the pattern back to more of the same. That's way out there though. The general look at the end of the latest ens mean runs- Beyond that all of the extended products(CMC, GEFS, CFS and Euro weeklies) to varying degrees depict an improved look in the high latitudes for a time. Latest CFS is representative, and along with the most recent Euro weeklies, has the best look for the longest, but they are both prone to dramatic shifts run-to run. Without significant improvement in the PNA space, we probably need a formidable -NAO for 7-10 days to get a few legit cracks at something. This is likely our last best shot. Hail Mary time.

Still a hint of a wave along the cold front towards next weekend but the usual outcome of too progressive/cold coming in behind looks most likely.

Looks like temps on Thursday will be well into the 60s, possibly 70 in a few places. Spring feva.

Good to hear! Enjoy. Currently drinking a 90 min IPA in a frosted mug.

He doesn't approve because it actually exists lol. Just think, we all could have been on the verge of saving our winter had it not been for the fucking jinx.

Some hopium in the LR on the 12z GEFS. As mentioned in a previous post, a weak signal for frozen next Friday-Saturday period, then a somewhat stronger signal around the 24th-25th for something. The advertised pattern on the GEFS looks like it may be going places. EPS and CMC ens look somewhat different at h5, but still a notably colder look for the east the end of the month. Time will tell; we just can't know yet.

Need it to be drier here.

Love me some drought from now until early April, since it can't snow. Might keep the seasonal wetland on the dry side, thus I won't have to put the knee boots on and trudge around in the muck seeding it with larvicide($200 dolla).

One thing of note- the weeklies initialized off the 0z run, which had a more promising look at the end in the HL and hinted at a -NAO developing. The 12z run today took a step back, looking like more of the same rather than some sort of a meaningful pattern change getting underway. Not sure I would put much faith in this edition of the weeklies. Need to see more persistent hints of a favorable shift in the pattern towards the end of the month over the next few ensemble model cycles.

It might have the coldest rain for this one.

There is a pretty strong signal on the ensembles for yet another storm cutting NW for the 16- 17th. Just beyond that there may be the possibility for a wave along the boundary around the 18th or so with colder air in its wake. Something to keep an eye on as we try again lol.

Always fun when randos from other subs pop in here to tell us all how things are.

Deep!

It was 60 today and I didn't hate it at all. Really tired of moderately chilly and dry, followed by mild rain though.

The terms are sometimes used interchangeably, but that doesn't make it technically correct.