CAPE

Typical Nina. Take a look at the current SST anomalies. Favors convection closer to the MC.

The period around the 22nd is still worth keeping an eye on for first a chance at something. CMC ens has low pressure off the coast and is colder.

Yep they all look reasonably favorable going forward, and we are getting into prime snow climo. There should be chances if something close to those h5 looks verify. Beyond that, we just can't know.

The chances have looked slim at best based on the reports. Huntley didn't throw today, but was at practice. He has shoulder tendonitis, and should be able to play with that. I think they are just getting him as much rest as possible, but he probably needs to be more involved tomorrow if he is is going to start. The only chance the Ravens have is for the D to be dominant, the run game to be dominant and eat clock, while scoring 20, don't turn it over, and get a takeaway or 2. Tall order.

It was started specifically because the other one was a disaster. Oh shit!

Low of 25 and very frosty.

Agree, but it looks better than previous runs because it has the TPV in that location and oriented that way. Would expect it to be colder at the surface given that look, so that part 'worries' me. Marginal cold has not worked for the coastal plain nearly as well in recent winters.

As discussed yesterday, the EPS is somewhat less robust with the -EPO, and doesn't get as much cold into our nearby source region, but still has a very favorable look in the LR. The TPV over N Canada is stretched southeastward with time. It will be interesting to watch the trends wrt the specifics of the pattern evolution over the next several model cycles.

Active look on the GEFS beyond the 20th. Remains to be seen how quickly colder air would bleed east and exactly where the thermal boundary will be. Signal for the 22nd is pretty strong but might be a little too soon to get a favorable track. Beyond that, there should be chances with colder air pressing.

0z GEFS is dropping the hammer in the LR, continuing the idea of a southward displaced TPV. More ridging in the the NAO domain helps facilitate this. The overall h5 look up top is impressive. CMC ens is very similar.

Could be, but this represents the earliest possibility based on latest guidance. Several runs ago the odds of something interesting for this timeframe seemed remote.

I thought this morning based on the latest ens guidance our first crack at something could be as early as around 10 days away, the 20th or so. The latest GEFS suggests a chance of a wave moving along the boundary around the 22nd with cold pressing SE. A simple path to victory in a pattern evolving as currently advertised.

Imagine what these poor people must go through. Snow starts in late November, and continually accumulates without melting, through the end of February. Like clockwork, every winter. There will be 4 times this amount otg in another month. Actually doesn't bother them at all. I don't think they ever treat the roads- just plow them when there is a heavier snow and just drive on the light accumulation. Let the sun do the rest.

We had a decaying east coast ridge with flat ridging located not far off the coast when the early Jan 22 storm hit. Not much of an issue if we have some legit cold pressing in from the NW. That would tend to keep the thermal boundary suppressed further SE. Difficult to glean such details off of an h5 mean from an extended product.

Not sure if it was posted as I have been a tad busy, but this is yesterday's Euro weeklies into early Feb. Looks good well into the month fwiw.

Weather happens quick. A microcosm of life. If you wanna slow things down and savor it a bit, maybe try a little weed.

^His presence has also allowed Patrick Queen to go from a somewhat underachieving high round pick, to unlocking his true potential and becoming the dominant force the Ravens envisioned. So for those who think that contract is a bit too lucrative, it isn't at all.

Great move. Dude is the real deal. I think this also sends a message to Lamar that they are going to use the exclusive franchise tag on him unless he moves off of the fully guaranteed money demand.

We can all root for what we want, and it changes nothing. These advertised patterns are going to morph into something at least somewhat different anyway, and we will live with whatever we get. I have rooted for the patterns that are historically 'more likely' to produce meaningful snow and even when it ends up close to advertised, lately it mostly just rains here. I can think of one instance since 2016 where a legit -NAO has yielded meaningful snow imy. I'll roll the dice on a pattern that brings the cold, and risk dry or an amped cutter. There are risks for failure regardless, and some amount of timing and luck is always required

I get it but I don't try to extract that level of detail on a course LR mean that we know will change anyway. I was mostly addressing previous posts about the advertised surface temps being 'too warm' and why there are differences wrt that across the guidance in the LR at this point. The current depiction in the NAO domain is certainly better on the EPS. Personally I would like to see some legit cold get involved in the pattern given my location and the outcomes that have occurred here recently with that type of setup.

The EPS has a pretty nice look at h5 here, but not very cold at the surface. The primary difference compared to the GEFS/CMC ens at this point is less amplified EPO ridge and a weaker ridge towards the Kara sea. The TPV over northern Canada remains more poleward and associated with (stretched towards) the stronger vortex towards the Aleutians- this keeps the polar air largely contained. The bridging of those ridges helps displace the TPV more southward on the other guidance. The EPS does get colder air into the US a few days later with a weaker, more consolidated Aleutian vortex and more amplified EPO ridge.

Glad I was super busy yesterday lol. The means continue to advertise a more favorable longwave pattern to be in place beyond month, with an Aleutian low, slightly +PNA, -EPO, -AO. The North Atlantic looks at least serviceable. Realistically our next chance for a trackable threat is 10 days away. The CMC ens has had the coldest look with hints of a southward displaced TPV, and the GEFS is now suggesting that. The period around the 23rd is an interesting look, suggestive of NS waves riding overtop of the ridge/spinning off the TPV, along with energy ejecting eastward from the Baja region.

Looks like it may have drizzled a bit here overnight.

If the advertised h5 pattern is real the direct blast from the Pac firehose will be cut off and temps will cool. EPS has normal to slightly below temps reaching our region beyond the 20th. GEFS has our source region cooling significantly from what it is this week. CMC ens has an even colder look as usual.

Bengals won't be happy when they look at the game film. Their offense will be pissed off and ready to go.