CAPE

Not a bad run. Key features just a little off from 12z run, specifically the timing/location/strength of the vortices underneath the developing NAO ridge. Less confluence and weaker surface HP in eastern Canada as the low approaches.

Nice trend south for the 28th for SNE. Crush job.

120 is it. 17%+ abv and the big malty/slightly sweet backbone is pretty effin good.

First things first- this weekend still looks decent for a bit of frozen for lower S MD/lower eastern shore. Maybe a coating to an inch.

Eh, dry slotted here. Ended up with half a storm. Still the biggest event since 2010.

Fuck, I am on to a 120 now. This better not cut.

'Bad Pacific' in this case refers to the massive Aleutian blocking ridge. That places a deep trough digging southward along the west coast- so they have the moisture source plus the cold draining from western Canada. And yes it's the higher elevations that get the snow, but in this pattern even places that don't normally see frozen can also get in on the action a bit.

I am getting set for the epic HH run (lol). First up- a quick and dirty Old Fashioned in a frosted glass.

There are all sorts of issues with that period, mostly all a result of the bad pacific. I could go through the list, but I won't. If we are going to get a late win in this shitty winter it is going to have to come in a pattern with plenty of warts. A +PNA may materialize- maybe mid to late month? Or surely by early April. So yeah, you can forget that dream the way things look now lol.

Yep. It has been trending better, but as we know it usually goes the other way at some point.

The h5 look is somewhat improved on the 12z GEFS for that period, with a broader trough/the eastern ridge is flatter and more offshore. More conducive to a low track over or just to our SE vs. cutting west. This might be as good as it gets this winter.

The majority of the 12z GEFS members have LP tracking to our NW, with some of those suggesting secondary development or some sort of trailing wave. A few members just have a low tracking to our south. The signal for frozen for our region in the March 3-5 window is about the same as the 6z run. 1-2 inches east of the western Highlands.

I'll go with C and E.

My wag is that the NAO would do what we want it to do (like March 2018) if the Pacific was 'workable' instead of downright hostile. The persistent placement and orientation of that PAC ridge since early Jan is god awful as it keeps the PNA significantly negative and the trough location is such that the boundary is almost always well to our west. Typically there is enough variation so there are periods where the PNA/EPO are more conducive for cold bleeding southeastward and a favorable storm track.

The forecast high for here today has been mid to upper 40s for awhile now. 30 degrees warmer tomorrow!

A -NAO is not the end all. It can be rendered ineffective(for our purposes) in the presence of a hostile Pacific. The persistently unfavorable location/orientation of the Aleutian ridge this winter is making it very difficult to get the thermal boundary far enough southward/eastward. Storms develop and track along that strong thermal/density gradient. What we can hope for as the block continues to strengthen is secondary low development along the coast as inland tracking storms track further north. That may tend to occur too late for the MA. Never forget the general rule for a Nina lol.

Going forward, as I noted in the old thread, the NAO block builds westward into the 'ideal' location as the Aleutian ridge is reamplifying and that combo pinches off a chunk of TPV sending it southward, encouraging the trough to again dig out west. That's not a nice ridge bridge lol.

The advertised longwave pattern is conducive for an inland track with a secondary coastal low instead of a straight up cutter. The thermal boundary is closer to the coast for this period, which has not been the case much of the time this winter. Plus there is a very favorable look in the NA.

The general signal on the EPS (and CMC ens) for the March 4 storm at this point is an initial low tracking to our west, with possible secondary low development along the coast. GEFS not as much into the coastal idea for now.

Temps are fine verbatim given how dry the air is. The bigger concern would be weak forcing- might be tough to get more than pixie dust to hit the ground.

It would be the first best in many places.

We cant afford to toss anything lol. March snow counts, and it is often a better month than December. People hate the quick melting I guess. We can do that efficiently in any month.

This is big.

Someone should start a thread.

This window might be conducive for a wave ejecting out of the SW to track further southeastward towards the east coast as the Aleutian ridge becomes flatter and stretched- allowing for the trough to shift eastward some instead of being dug in along the west coast. The NA look is favorable. The op run went there, but only a weak signal on the mean at this point.