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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    'Colder' air availability will be improved and a better chance of a wave tracking underneath. I like the idea of a wave after the weekend thing, for early next week. eta- something like this. At this point there is a signal across guidance, but it would probably be on the weaker side /tend to develop more offshore. Thermals are better behind whatever happens this weekend.
  2. CAPE
    At this point the weekend storm does not look like it will come together in such a way that the combo of enough cold air and precip will coincide. Far north/west areas obviously have the best shot at some snow.
  3. CAPE
    Pretty strong signal for the 18-20th.
  4. CAPE
    0z EPS wave one The following wave is mostly south and off the coast.
  5. CAPE
    Looks like it might fucking snow in your yard. Sorry.
  6. CAPE
    Better late than never? Or maybe just better never lol.
  7. CAPE
    Yeah esp the CMC ens. I made a post about it.
  8. CAPE
    Verbatim HH GEFS is pretty decent for Mount PSU northward/westward.
  9. CAPE
    18z GFS a disaster? Not seeing digital blue over your house through mid month.
  10. CAPE
    That's a low forming along the baroclinic boundary. Pretty cold air hitting the Gulf stream.
  11. CAPE
  12. CAPE
    Anyone bother checking the 12z JMA? Ji? @mitchnick
  13. CAPE
    Not every ridge is a SER. I don't see a SER in the LR on the EURO op. Once again the fundamental problem(on that run) is a trough digging out west. That means there will be a ridge to the east.
  14. CAPE
    This is the period I have liked, just beyond whatever happens on the 11-12th. Pretty close on the heels, but a nice look here on the CMC mean. Fresh cold air in place. That's what us lowlanders like to see.
  15. CAPE
    The GFS op is still phasing in too much of the NS energy associated with the vort lobe in western Canada. The GEFS has been depicting a similar degree of interaction, but backed off some at 0z. The end result was improved. Subtle differences in these wave interactions make big differences later on with the outcome. Long way to go.
  16. CAPE
    The dominant feature in a Nina is the NE Pacific ridge. The orientation/location can vary, dependent on multiple variables including the strength and character of the NPAC jet. Most of this winter it locked into one of the worst possible configurations for the MA and SE. Last winter it was more variable. January was a favorable period as the mean trough shifted eastward, so it was a pretty cold month. Also delivered 3 snowstorms, but bad luck for NW areas in 2 of those.
  17. CAPE
    Helluva wave break. We would at least be chilly for mid month.
  18. CAPE
    Live vicariously. Watch snow happen in the places that are actually getting winter. I'm watching Truckee get pummeled again. 2 ft. a few days ago. Looks like another 2 feet into tomorrow.
  19. CAPE
    Outside of a Nino, we need a pattern that can deliver legit cold, and hope it isn't dry. We have just experienced the antithesis.
  20. CAPE
    So yeah, enough with the NAM posts trying to glean anything useful on the lead up to a threat that's a week out lol.
  21. CAPE
    It's an urban myth.
  22. CAPE
    12km NAM is useless, even when it is in its wheelhouse. It's going to be junked in the near future.
  23. CAPE
    They look nearly identical at h5 and the surface. The sensible weather outcome on both the 0z and 12z ens runs for this region are essentially the same. Did I just repeat myself? Feels like I just repeated myself.
  24. CAPE
    Almost identical to 0z. womp womp lowlands, congrats western highlands, NW burbs still in the game.
  25. CAPE
    12z EPS is essentially the same as 0z for our region.
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