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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    lol you are so addicted to the damn snow maps.
  2. CAPE
    Next shot after the 25th. Op run but seeing a general signal on the ensembles for the first couple days of March.
  3. CAPE
    @Ralph Wiggum We got guacamole here.
  4. CAPE
    Op runs and ensembles keep suggesting the 25th may offer a chance of at least some frozen.. and it is inside 10 days lol.
  5. CAPE
    Dont forget the driving rain.
  6. CAPE
    A month off. Our Hail Mary (SSW) just occurred. Delayed but not denied. Mid to late March will really be rockin'.
  7. CAPE
  8. CAPE
    Hard to say what impact that might be having when we can't even get cold to stick around for more than a day. The persistent western trough/eastern ridge is a winter killer.
  9. CAPE
    That is a feature of a Nina, but the character/orientation can be different, and like last winter it can wax and wane and shift eastward/poleward at times. Probably Nina, PDO, and TNH pattern combining to screw us over this winter.
  10. CAPE
    The pattern was decent for much of December, but we were unlucky(plus climo). Since then the Aleutian ridge has been strong and stable, and in a very unfavorable position. That's pretty much the ball game.
  11. CAPE
    Not all Ninas are complete ratters like this one.
  12. CAPE
    Blowing Rock
  13. CAPE
    Radical look lol. (not base state)
  14. CAPE
    It might. I think the current Nina/PDO/TNH combo is also just an unfavorable base state for our region- all probably exacerbated by that other thing.
  15. CAPE
    Yeah we will have to see how the pattern progresses. Hopefully we get a relaxation of the Pacific Pig ridge in conjunction with a -NAO period, but the current pattern has been persistent since early Jan.
  16. CAPE
    Very end of the month into the first few days of March still looks like our next best shot. Pretty weak signal for frozen on the GEFS and EPS though. Root for the CMC ens mean. Beyond that, who knows. Maybe the SSW will save us, but I doubt it. This Nina/TNH pattern seems locked in.
  17. CAPE
    Lets see if it translates to an improving h5 pattern. Oh look, a SE ridge about to link up with a -NAO! We are stuck with the same general mild pattern with storms tracking west until that Aleutian ridge weakens. Some of the extended products get there, but might be too late for most of us. Always the chance we time something perfectly as the boundary briefly shifts southward heading into early March.
  18. CAPE
    Thanks, but this weird hobby is a group effort.
  19. CAPE
    @Ralph Wiggum Attack of the Avocados! Plenty of snow well offshore. Who has a big boat?
  20. CAPE
    Those 3 are really just one- the persistently strong Aleutian ridge. Until that dies or shifts, the other 2 remain. We have seen plenty of evidence it cannot be mitigated by a transient -NAO or 50-50 lows. I don't see a legit sustained west-based block setting up anytime soon, and it is debatable if that would have the impact we need.
  21. CAPE
    Hell of a pattern here on the Euro weeklies. First time there is decent PNA with no hint of a SE ridge, AND a -NAO. April is gonna kick azz.
  22. CAPE
    Lets get 3 consecutive Ninos and see where we are. All Modoki ofc.
  23. CAPE
    I look at it as a logic gate- NOT summer. A few months of enjoying the outdoors without being harassed by bugs and sweating like a pig is a win.
  24. CAPE
    As it stands now on the ens means, our next best opportunity lies in this window. Yes, the perpetual 10+ days away, and this chance will probably vanish in about 5 days, to be replaced by another "promising look" 10 days later.
  25. CAPE
    Making a move to a location with a "slightly better" climo in our general region probably won't make much difference at this point lol. Hell it doesn't even snow on Mount PSU anymore. Need to move to the western highlands to notice a significant difference.
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