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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    You own a mountain dude.
  2. CAPE
    That is different for sure. At least we have an alternative failure mode on the table. The cutter thing got boring ages ago.
  3. CAPE
    I get it. This 'song and dance' happens almost every winter though. At least the ensembles provide some degree of stability when tracking patterns in the LR. Lay off the op runs lol.
  4. CAPE
    For this threat window. Go play video games if you don't want to properly participate in the discussion lol.
  5. CAPE
    12z EPS has a similar look with a wave and cold pressing
  6. CAPE
    First chance.
  7. CAPE
    The nature of the beast dude. Nothing new, esp chasing snow chances in the MA in a Nina. We all know what to expect. Why poop?
  8. CAPE
    Lets review: The modeled period of interest with actual cold in place for days now has been Feb 1 at the earliest, to perhaps the 10th. Strongest signal for a wave or 2 has been the 2nd through the 8th. That really has not changed.
  9. CAPE
    Aligns well with recent runs of the ens mean.
  10. CAPE
    not a Barney fan?
  11. CAPE
    Awesome only 240 hours out! Pretty much on schedule. This has been the time frame for a chance of something (other than mild rain) per guidance for awhile.
  12. CAPE
    Pumped up HH run. Got me a 120 now.
  13. CAPE
    12z Euro and 18z GFS rolling out on WB at the same time. I need some weed.
  14. CAPE
    12z GEFS depicts a few minor disturbances moving through after the cold comes in with the wave around the 2nd, and then a more significant one for the 7th.
  15. CAPE
    Right around Feb 2nd is where the period of potential starts, and this look has been consistent on the means.
  16. CAPE
    HP is always on the move with progressive flow. That thing largely owes its existence to confluence from the strong TPV lobe rotating through, and there is nothing to slow its progress either.
  17. CAPE
    Fwiw the latest edition of the Euro weeklies suggest a transition to a workable h5 look for the last week of Feb. Maybe we bookend the month with crap in the middle.
  18. CAPE
    If that pattern locks in for the rest of the month then sure, but that isn't the point I was making. If the pattern improves moving towards the end of Feb, specifically on the Atlantic side, then still having some cold close by in Canada would be better than it being flooded with Pacific air with a +EPO/-PNA combo.
  19. CAPE
    That's been the general expectation as the TPV shifts more into the NAO domain and it goes impressively positive. For now it doesn't look like we torch, but definitely some moderation towards mid month. The Pacific side as currently modeled doesn't go hostile at least, with a ridge forecast to persist in the EPO/WPO space. That should keep our source region cold.
  20. CAPE
    Looking over the 0z ensemble suite it appears the colder air will arrive with/behind a wave in the Feb 1-2 window. Pretty strong signal for that across guidance. The cold push looks legit and the timing will be interesting. It could come in behind this initial wave, but at this point we just cant know. There are hints at another chance around the 3rd-4th with an actual cold airmass in place.
  21. CAPE
    Sleet-fest here. Pass.
  22. CAPE
    Not expecting it 2 weeks later either.
  23. CAPE
    The general idea has been there on the ens mean..
  24. CAPE
    It looks pretty decent as depicted. We are still in a Nina so not expecting PD 3 lol.
  25. CAPE
    GFS/GEFS and to some extent the CMC have looked interesting for around Feb 1-2. Might be a tad early, but I think it is probably the first/earliest trackable threat window.
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