CAPE

Our best shot next week might be next Friday-Sat when the main energy comes east, if its cold enough and dependent on the TPV timing as it shifts east. 0z EPS depiction looks pretty good.

There was a bit more of a meridional component to it but guidance has incrementally backed off. Makes sense it would stay mostly across Canada once the -NAO look vanished. What we are left with is flat, fast, west-east flow, with the NS vorticity strung out and separated from the (weak) vorticity impulses ejecting eastward out of the main energy in the SW. There has to be some sort of notable 'kink' in the flow to get moisture transport north into the cold(and dry) air. We will see what happens when the main energy ejects east towards the end of the week- it looks like the Canadian trough/TPV digs more southward as it shifts east, but that might be problematic with timing and degree of cold in place.

I mean, I see it, but at some point we just have to ride with what we got. Maybe those -EPO patterns with cross polar flow that are traditionally dry and cold/warm and mild, but do produce at times, become more prevalent and we have to roll the dice there. I am hoping we end up with a favorable CP mod Nino next winter with blocking to see where we are at this point. That has obv been the gold standard for MA winters. As of now Nino chances by next Fall are greater than 50%.

There is clearly spread among the members, but wave one, which looks like the weaker one at this point, is still 4 days out.

Perspective- the favorable period was to begin around the 2nd of Feb and last through maybe the 10th. At this juncture a 2-3 inch mean across the region through the 6th looks pretty good to me.

Nice discussion from Mount Holly AFD on the prospects for next week- .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Summary...Active weather pattern with the storm track much closer to our region. Much colder air will be lurking to the north/west and some of this is forecast to settle south, however the extent of it will depend on storm tracks. Synoptic Overview...As more energy is shifted into western Canada from the Pacific, more of a trough is across central to eastern Canada with this dipping into the U.S. This setup tends to favor the baroclinic zone shifting farther south and east and therefore between the Ohio Valley and the Southeast U.S. The ensemble guidance continues to show this overall pattern setting up, however there remains differences in the handling of the Canadian trough and also the southern energy. The northern trough however may provide a more notable piece of energy along the front and that may track near our area Tuesday and Wednesday. One of the questions that remains is how much cold air can press southward and meet up with moisture as this system slides on by. Given the trough that is forecast, the surface low reflections should be quick moving. The timing also varies among the guidance. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in this time frame, however the pattern looks favorable for energy sliding near or especially just to our south with moisture potentially teaming up with colder air arriving from the northwest. For Tuesday through Thursday...The evolving pattern in the model guidance, including ensembles, continues to point toward a farther south and east storm track from what we have been dealing with. This is courtesy of the storm track off the Pacific more into western Canada, which drives more of a trough from central/eastern Canada down into the eastern U.S. This tends to favor the baroclinic zone setting up between the Ohio Valley and the Southeast U.S. This shifting pattern, while evident in the guidance, carries differences regarding the timing and also magnitude of southern energy sliding along a baroclinic zone. There looks to be at least two waves that traverse the thermal gradient corridor during this time frame, although the details are much more less certain. What may occur is a series of weak and strung out surface features tracking along the boundary, however decent lift can accompany these especially along the front and into the colder air to its north. Some guidance has trended drier for Wednesday, and also quicker bringing in some precipitation later Tuesday. With time however, the baroclinic zone may be shoved farther south and east as the upper-level trough shifts east and potentially strong/cold high pressure builds in from the west.

I remember. I think that was the winter where we had a really good set up in one particular event with a -NAO, lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes and it snowed in the NW burbs with marginal temps and rained on the coastal plain. That would have historically been a mostly snow event for the entire region.

The GL low wrecks our chances at 18z. As for the general set up- being just underneath a TPV sliding eastward with relatively weak elongated vorticity ribbons ejecting eastward underneath in fast moving flow, the area of 'enhanced' precip is going to be skinny N to S and stretched W to E. And only part of that is going to be frozen.

HH GEFS initial wave-

It was clear a few panels earlier than what I posted.

All our hopes and dreams are completely dependent on random interplay and timing between waves. What a dumb fucking hobby.

The extra dig in the NS vorticity right here- ..induces LP at the surface. We cooked at that point.

Not uncommon with a persistent western US trough. Puts those areas at times on the cold side of the thermal boundary. They might be souther, but its the wester that helps them in this case.

Getting primed for HH King.

Friday HH is upon us. Crucial runs. 120 time for me. LFG!

Mine was an all natural cocktail . You should give it a go. I started using it for muscle recovery (and deep sleep) after workouts. Might not be as effective as meds for everyone. I like going the natural supp route when possible.

Anything goes until HH?

Plenty of stuff helps lol. I was simply offering another option and something I have used for years.

Zinc picolinate, Magnesium Glycinate, B6, and add 2-3 mg of Melatonin if needed. Great all natural supplement cocktail for muscle recovery and a deep sleep with some wild ass dreams.

The initial wave has actually trended colder overall from a few days ago. Cold comes in just ahead/during vs behind. That is a signal for 1-3" for N MD as it stands now, with places further south ending as snow.

Yum. Much better than the stuff H20 is into lol.

How about this- The western ridge amps up, folds over, and the avocado of doom tracks southward over NE bringing single digit temps to the MA and snow to Charleston SC.

A 5-day anomaly doesn't tell the story here though. The initial wave gets precip further north, but the cold air is just advancing southward through our area- comes in towards the tail end. For the second wave colder air is entrenched and the wave tracks further south. Both waves are relatively weak, and the lower res ensembles might not be accurately depicting the degree of lift into the cold air. With a tight thermal boundary even a weakish wave can generate some decent precip.

Not sure it will play out that way. You have the WDI going up that way, along with better snow climo.

Pretty much lol. Still a ways to go. The initial wave could be better for northern areas, and the second one more suppressed, leaving places in between in the jip zone. That scenario is depicted on some of the ens members.