CAPE

Impressive squall at Rehoboth.

time sensitive https://www.visitdebeaches.com/live-webcams/rehoboth-beach-boardwalk-webcam/

Radar returns look impressive over the DE Bay into SNJ.

Some flakes flying here but nothing like the flizzard that accompanied the Dec Avocado assault.

lol just messing with ya. There is some hope on the means for a better h5 look beyond mid month.

I just think there is bit too much redundancy/overlap between the medium/LR thread and the thread you created for analyzing the 'why' it isn't snowing lately. The doom and gloom is typical given the winter we have had to this point, but the combination tends to overwhelm the LR thread, esp after each "bad" op run cycle. Sometimes reading through the thread at those times it's like fuck, how about just NOT posting anything lol. That's not directed at you btw.

The 0z ens runs were hinting especially the EPS. Lets see if that continues for a few cycles.

It's all good. I am not bothered by whatever is said in general. I mostly post when I see a bit of an opening for something to occur in the overall crappy pattern, or hints of some favorable changes going forward. Otherwise I just tune out and do other things. The constant gloom/doom and perpetual analysis of the 'bad' is fatiguing lol.

And the first couple weeks of March. Outside of a few recent cases, late March is usually meh, and for the lowlands April is Fuhgeddaboudit.

6z GEFS kind of likes the trailing wave idea for late next weekend as the boundary is dragged southward behind the late week storm. This is a way we can score a 1-3 type deal in an overall crud pattern.

Mods should consider merging this with the 'Is It Ever going to Snow Again' thread. Kinda hard to discern the difference.

Hinting. Baby steps. My glimmer of hope post for the day. Now y'all can carry on with the negative vibe.

The latest Ens means in the long range are hinting at an improving pattern beyond mid month, with the AO and NAO trending toward negative and with the TPV back over N Hudson Bay. This look suggests some colder air intrusions would be possible for central and eastern US, as NS disturbances are directed southward in the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. A more -NAO might help facilitate getting colder air further southeast/ flattening the ridge along the east coast, somewhat mitigating the -PNA. Always a battle. We really need that ridge south of the Aleutians to not be the predominant feature. Some weakening and a slight shift eastward would improve our prospects.

I made a post about that period this morning. I guess no one noticed lol. It could work out for inland areas at elevation if the timing is right. The synoptic set up as depicted is more problematic for the lowlands. eta- I was being facetious in that post, mostly. I don't think winter is over, but the creation of the new thread was supposed to quell the gloom/doom and whinging- but if anything it has ramped up more.

As predicted, a new LR thread would just be overwhelmed by the same shit as the last one lol. There isn't any new positive vibe to be had at this juncture. Only Spring can save us from ourselves now.

You woke up this morningThe world turned upside down..

This is probably the next (best) low probability, thread the needle shot at something with a transient PNA ridge, and a piece of NS energy that rotates southward around the TPV and into the 50/50 position for a few hours lol.

2/1: 0.3" T: 0.4"

Looks like a solid quarter inch out there! lol Still snowing lightly.

Lighter with smaller flakes now. Can definitely see the better returns to my south and esp over towards southern DE.

Started snowing here in the last 30 mins. Everything covered and coming down moderately. See how long it lasts.

It might be important that we all do this.

For a hi res super short range model that updates every hour, not sure what it's good for if that's the case.

The shitty HRRR aside, the general idea across guidance hasn't changed very much. Euro tends to do this at the bitter end after being dry af for a hundred runs, so not sure how much stock I would put in it. Most of the guidance suggests less than an inch (not the damn snow maps) with places south of DC to Dover most likely having enough precip to get it done.. if it is cold enough while precip is actually falling.