CAPE

The Os should really focus more on the bullpen for pitching help- at least one more solid middle reliever is probably a must if they want to get anywhere in the postseason. A starter would be nice too, but not easy to get without giving up pitching prospects, and then someone gets displaced. Means should be back at some point too, probably early September.

12 km NAM and FV3 HR look very similar to the GFS, with some timing differences. Latest 3km NAM has some action too, but somewhat different placement within the region.

Some recent model runs, especially the 6z GFS, seem to be keying on a disturbance in the flow, potentially inducing an area of more widespread heavy showers for this evening.

90/75 More humid than hot here. High was 91.

Yeah one big storm or a few moderate ones and I am above here. The latter is what happened the winter before last- almost all of it fell in Jan which was nice as it stuck around longer.

Highly variable here. Last winter was a disaster for the entire MA, but the winter before was good relative to average- 20" imby. Long term mean snowfall is 18" or so here. I haven't hated the Ninas since the 2015-16 Nino winter. The coastal plain has cashed in pretty often with late developing coastal scrapers. The neutral/weak Nino winters since 2015 have largely sucked.

He needed to vent. Comical post, and all wrong ofc.

65 here this morning. Some ground fog but feels quite nice out considering we are on the verge of a heat wave.

4 more posts to go. Maybe stick with the weenies.

I'm closing the gap!

Or at least weenie lol. What a sad sack.

Snowmannumbs is mad lol I guess he can post in this sub again.

Why should anyone care about your guess?

hooked the weenie. easy.

Probably both. Helps to drive Nino development, but thereafter once the location of the warmest ssts are established, it tends to help maintain the forcing. I am no expert though, and I don't parrot random twitter geeks and claim to have 'educated' opinions based on their understanding of the processes at play.

8.02" for the month.

Rain stopped so I got a shot of the driveway. Good drainage so its recovering quickly. Have only seen it that bad a couple times.

It should be ok. Some of the mulch areas are a different story.

Posted this in the severe thread, but i'll put it here- Well that was interesting. Thought I could beat it when I left work, and drove straight into it a few miles south of my house. Wind driven torrential rain, lots of small debris and some big branches down. Plenty of T&L. My driveway is a river. Appears this blew up right on the doorstep from the outflow from the initial line. 1.73".

Well that was interesting. Thought I could beat it when I left work, and drove straight into it a few miles south of my house. Wind driven torrential rain, lots of small debris and some big branches down. Plenty of T&L. My driveway is a river. Appears this blew up right on the doorstep from the outflow from the initial line. 1.73".

Looks like there might be some hail with that cell moving towards southern Kent Island.

The depiction on the 18z 3km NAM aligns pretty well with the SPC discussion for tomorrow- A large scale mid/upper trough oriented from the lower Great Lakes to the central Appalachians will pivot east across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday. Large scale ascent coupled with modest vertical shear (effective shear magnitudes around 30 kt) atop a seasonally moist/unstable airmass will support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from early afternoon into early evening. Elongated/straight hodographs amid large instability above 850 mb and increasing westerlies to around 35 kt between 3-6 km suggest isolated severe hail will be possible with semi-discrete cells, especially around the Delmarva/Chesapeake Bay vicinity where midlevel lapse rates are forecast to be steepest (around 6.5-7 C/km). Strong heating will aid in steepening low-level lapse rates, and low-level winds will remain fairly light. This will promote potential for strong outflow and isolated damaging gusts. Some guidance suggests a forward propagating cluster may develop via consolidating outflow across the Chesapeake Bay vicinity late afternoon/early evening. As a result of these factors, the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been expanded across the Mid-Atlantic and a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) introduced across the Delmarva vicinity.

Just a few drops here. Nothing measurable.

Os with the second best record in MLB. Up by 2 after taking 3 out of 4. Pretty good start to a tough second half stretch.