CAPE

Any good thunderstorms showing up? Another high probability fail for this region. Heat and wind we do!

From Mount Holly morning AFD- FIRE WEATHER... A dry cold front has passed through overnight. Humidity only recovered to around 40 to 50 percent overnight, and is already decreasing early this morning from the Delaware River northwestward. Colder and drier air will spread into the region today, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and surface dew points dropping well into the single digits. West- northwest winds will be sustained 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts much of today. Min RH values this afternoon will range from 20 to 25 percent. Additionally, 10-hour fuel moisture at most area RAWS were in the 7 to 9 percent range Saturday evening, with little recovery overnight, and may tend slightly drier this afternoon. After coordination with fire weather partners on Saturday, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for our New Jersey zones, while a Special Weather Statement is in effect for our Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware zones for Sunday.

Here are a couple shots of the seasonal woodland wetland on the back of my property. This whole area is normally under a foot or so of water by mid February, as the water table breaks the surface. As of now just one small puddle, and most of the area isn't even muddy. I ordered 100 bucks of larvicide as usual, as one or 2 soaking rains over the next couple weeks will get it going. It normally dries up by late Spring with warmer/longer days and increase in evapotranspiration.

Is anyone actually still tracking snow? We can't even get a rain storm lately. My seasonal wetland/mosquito breeding ground is barely damp, so I am ok with dry this time of year. I was just outside watering some of the newer trees/plants I put in during early Fall though. That 0.01" of rain last night didn't do much.

Exactly. Emotional expectations based on a specific desired outcome by a weenie attempting to interpret a D10 mean aren't really relevant.

Was there really a consensus for the ice age idea among the scientific community back then? Or was it mostly speculative? That's a good exercise right there.

Friday HH on St Patty's day. I'm more green than usual. And no, fuck green beer. That's not the green I mean. Be careful out there.

Yeah it's kind of a waste of time to draw conclusions from scientific data. Truthiness is always better.

I love this place. Even more when it never snows.

The snowy periods are less snowy, and the non-snowy periods are more snowy. Not sure how we can move on from this one.

A bit more variable here. Last year was incredible compared to this lol. Jan 17 and 18 were also pretty darn good- more so to my east. Beginning to think I need to root for cross polar flow/Arctic cold w/progressive pattern, as long as the western Atlantic is on fire at least. Seems to produce the most snow here in recent winters, but sucks pretty bad for inland areas.

We need our very own ENSO thread to track all that truly matters, until ultimate failure this time next year(following a long period of high expectations). A subtitle something like 'the new hope', or 'we are still so royally fucked' would be cool.

@vastateofmind Drinking one of these from RAR. Pretty darn good!

I think I had 12" here for 2020-21. Not too far from median. Some of it was sleet during the Feb period. Had some ice too. The winter before was a disaster. An inch or so total.

Wave 8? Might be the one.

Nah just applying weenies at this point. I assumed that 'privilege' had also been revoked, since he hasn't done it since.

Outside of a strong low with an ideal track, there is no chance of accumulating snow for the lowlands.

He was banned from this subforum. So nice to have him back though, contributing nothing useful. Weenies on every post!

Legit dusting here this morning, but only ranks third behind the quarter inch event of a few weeks back and the Arctic flizzard around Xmas. What a winter.

Complex evolution with a low developing over the Gulf stream then bombing as it interacts with the NS energy. Possibly some convective feedback issues in there.

Stronger signal than 0z.

Surface high is exiting stage right on the mean. If there is going to be a storm this period, the inland higher terrain would obviously be favored for frozen.

6z GEFS. Not a bad look.

What makes it work is constructive rather than destructive NS interaction. Good timing/location with the vorticity lobe sliding across southern Hudson Bay- creates some nice confluence and enhances surface HP in a favorable location.

Not sure there is ever a case to pay much attention to the 12km NAM.