CAPE

Could use a little excessive here to get back towards normal.

This Sangria hits the spot after being outside in the steam bath.

Sultry.

Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... AMENDED FOR EXPANSION/UPGRADING OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday from the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic, where damaging winds and hail will be possible. An isolated severe threat will also be possible in the northern High Plains. ...Amended discussion for the Eastern U.S.... A mid to upper-level low will meander slowly eastward over the central Great Lakes during the period. An associated trough initially over the OH Valley/southern Appalachians is forecast to gradually shift eastward into the central Appalachians/Carolinas. A belt of moderate southwesterly 500-mb flow (25-40 kt) will overspread a destabilizing warm sector ahead of a front/composite outflow over the Appalachians. Strong heating ahead of the front and very moist low levels (66-74 deg F surface dewpoints) will likely result in a moderate to very unstable airmass from the Southeast northward into the Mid-Atlantic states. Several linear clusters of intensifying thunderstorms are forecast to develop by early afternoon in the immediate lee of the higher terrain. Further upscale growth into a more expansive band of linear segments is expected by late afternoon/early evening from the Mid-Atlantic states southward into the Carolinas. Damaging gusts appear to be the primary hazard due to 50-70 mph gusts. Isolated large hail may accompany the stronger cores.

Managed to pick up 0.02" with that batch of spits and drizzle- the daily total. Probably it for the day as the action to the west is weakening. Up to 0.45" for the event.

It's just the nature of how we get rain now, and going forward over the next couple months. The haves and have nots- and that can run in streaks.

Drizzle . The rain gauge reads 0.00 for the day. Not mad- at worst I will have to water the newer plants probably on Sunday, with the likelihood Monday will also be a fail lol. The grass is oddly hanging in there, but it never makes it past early July regardless of the amount of rain that falls.

Your area has done really well lately. Looks like Middletown area has had at least 1-2" today. Your monthly total must be well over 5"?

This is so pathetic, esp after the epic tornado dream I had last night(have had hundreds). Just like all the others, there was this moment where I thought to myself, it's really happening this time- it isn't just a dream. Ofc, it was.

It's been comical over here all day. Uncanny. Maybe Monday! In other news, this old fashioned is tasty.

Storms all around, but not a drop here today.

Almost an inch for the month here. 0.96"

Spits and drizzle here overnight. Add 0.03 to the 0.40". At some point over the next few days, need a direct hit or 2 from an actual t-storm.

0.40". The overnight forecast was a fail. The heavy rain/convection stayed offshore.

0.32" Definitely no runoff here lol. but at the rate it is falling, the wind/evaporation is an overwhelming factor. I bet the soil is parched a cm under. Hopefully will do better with the increasing DPs and southerly flow later, although it will be more scattered. Can't be worse.

0.28" here at home. A windswept drizzle currently. Sure would be nice to see torrential rain with T&L. Been ages.

This area is in the sweet spot. Only about 0.2" so far at my house. Those yellows don't seem to push north. Some sort of convergence zone maybe.

Yes GoT.

Steady moderate rain here in Easton.

Uneducated maybe? Your post was random gibberish.

Pretty good look for some heavy shower and thunderstorm possibilities early next week.

Snippet from Mount Holly discussing the pattern evolution and the chances for (heavier) rain for the period beyond the next few days- The flow throughout much of the atmosphere will become well-aligned from the south, and remain that way for much of the long term forecast period. Cut- off low pressure over the Southeast US will only slowly lift northward toward the Great Lakes, then drift eastward across our region over the weekend. Meanwhile, longer range model guidance is tentatively in good agreement of another fairly strong upper-level trough ejecting eastward from the northern Rockies toward the Great Lakes early next week. That system may amplify as it settles into the long wave trough set up along the East Coast, reinforcing warm, moist southerly flow across our region. The airmass from Friday through the weekend looks quite convective, and showers/t-storms will tend to be enhanced with daytime heating, particularly if there is any sunshine. While it will not rain all the time, and any one day through this period does not look anomalously moist for June, the pattern will be capable of producing heavy rain, particularly with any training convection or when the flow aloft weakens. Despite the drought in some parts of our region, flooding may become an issue particularly next week if this pattern comes to fruition and the ground becomes more saturated.

18z ICON is juicy through midday Sat. 1-2" across the area.