CAPE

Anything prior to the 25th has been dead for our region. Thermal boundary too far NW. No reasonable chance to get cold in our region with a deep western trough and no help up top.

That period isn't relevant. Colder air hasn't pressed southward yet. This is the timeframe where we could actually get some precip with colder air in place-

For the 28th, there is a signal for a storm, and the latest runs of the EPS and GEFS suggest an initial low tracking into the Ohio Valley and a secondary low developing off the MA coast. Among the members are a NW track, some with coastal redevelopment, while there are others with a low tracking west to east further south. The NAO is just transitioning to negative at this point and it looks like a significant piece of energy ejecting out of the western US trough. The tendency would be for a low to track to our NW, but with the HL pattern in a state of flux, there will be NS vortices flying around. Need a well timed one that flattens the flow ahead of the approaching low.

For the weekend- there is some weak vorticity moving along the boundary between the SE ridge and the colder air pressing in from the north. There will be a transient cold high to our north, so the possibility is there for at least some frozen. Biggest question is will there be enough forcing, and where. Right now it doesn't look like a big deal but there could be a little snow/mix in parts of our region. 0z GEFS members-

55 here. Been outside pulling out chickweed and dandelions in the plant beds, and putting down some fresh mulch. NOT summer is great!

It develops a low offshore when the NS energy dives in and interacts with the vorticity ribbon stretched out overtop the ridge. Its a weird looking setup for us to get frozen from. SNE gets a little snow from it this run.

We have a strong suspicion lol.

By definition an atmospheric block involves both a high and low that are nearly stationary, thus forcing the flow to divert poleward/equatorward. I suppose the strictest definition would require a closed contour at h5 for both the High and the Low. For practical purposes, what we are seeing advertised currently on the means is a block. It could still morph into something else at this range.

There is a signal for something on the GEFS around the 28th but a lot of spread among the members wrt track/timing/intensity/p-type. Still pretty far out there. EPS had a stronger signal at 0z for a wave to track just to the south of us. We just can know yet.

12z GEFS for next weekend. There is no block yet so this is a timing deal to get some frozen with HP on the move. Looks minor at this point but something.

I'm not sure about all these 'timing rules' for tropospheric impacts associated with SSW events. Above my pay grade. My guess is it's a crapshoot like the rest of this stuff. So having said that, IF the longwave pattern currently being advertised on the means for early March verify(especially the EPS), we should have a chance or 2 before mid month when climo becomes really hostile for the lowlands.

The SPV experts say- its happening!

Seems like something has been happening up there. Looks pretty uncomfortable for a polar vortex.

Maybe the SSW is having a favorable impact that will improve our prospects for once. Encouraging to see the depicted transition in the high latitudes on guidance. Once again we wait and see if it actually materializes in a meaningful way.

Stronger signal on the 0z EPS for low pressure tracking underneath and off the coast for the 28th window. Modest signal for frozen in our region. Hints of the block getting into a position where it can encourage a more southward storm track.

It's always possible given the persistent deep trough out west. As I have said, it is likely going to take a strong west-based -NAO to inhibit that. Latest EPS runs are getting it done. Suppresses the SE ridge more so than the GEFS with a well positioned, strong block the end of Feb into March. Retrogrades it into an ideal position by the 5th.

This is a legit west based block. Nearly perfect dipole position/orientation. And it's just enough to get somewhat below normal temps into the MA in the presence of the super -PNA. eta: a -NAO isn't normally associated with super cold air in general. The point is it barely keeps the SE ridge in check in this case, and instead of the thermal boundary being clearly to our south(as it typically would be with a block) it is further NW, so storms will still have a tendency to track to our north/west.

The 25th chance is a thread the needle deal- the timing of that upper low shifting into the 50-50 region allows for the convergence/confluence necessary to develop a well timed surface HP wedging southward with just enough cold into our region. It exits stage right pretty quickly as there is no block(yet).

18z GFS has a similar outcome to the Euro for the 28th. Upstairs is somewhat different though. The way it looks now, the timing and amount of dig with that northern stream energy coming south will have a lot to do with how this goes.

But you keep taking the bait. Stop.

It has been pretty persistent. The 12z Canadian was further south than previous run and similar to the GFS. Euro op has been north, and all 3 ensembles have had a relatively weak signal for our region and stronger to our north.

You are doing better with your posts, but you need to stop doing this. Just ignore it.

Yeah in general 3 or 4 days out seems reasonable. Unless the Med-LR is super busy with tracking possible threats, which it absolutely isn't this winter.

Just about as silly as the jinx thing.

Rare winterish feeling day today. Low of 26 and a high of 41. Here we go 50s/60s and probably a 70 over the next 5-6 days.