CAPE

12z GEFS through the end of the month. GEPS is wetter.

Guidance depicts the blocking pattern breaking down towards the end of the week, with surface high pressure developing in the western Atlantic for a time. With a disturbance tracking to our NW and a southerly flow we should have a warmer, more humid airmass in place as a cold front approaches later Saturday. Other than getting in on some moisture on the northern edge of the southern closed low, our next best shot at significant rain looks to be associated with the energy lifting north as the pattern breaks down and the low opens.

Yeah much of southern DE and the lower MD eastern shore have done pretty well with showers and storms the past few weeks. Not even abnormally dry there. My area is right on the line between abnormally dry and moderate drought.

0.53" for the month here so far.

The dryness will continue, but so will the nice weather with normal to below normal temps and comfortable dewpoints.

Lucky to get that brief downpour earlier I guess. Radar looks.. uninspiring.

Just caught the edge of the developing line that is rocking areas just to my east in DE. Gusty winds and a brief downpour. Quick 0.2". Hopefully something else pops to the west later.

Yep.

I expect most of the activity will be east/SE/NE of my yard. In that betwixt and between groove.

I had a good view of the cell as I was driving. Looked like Denton was getting a good downpour, but it was weakening. No sign of lightning.

Upper ridge more amped on recent runs and it really suppresses the UL energy southward. We can't seem to win with the blocky patterns this Spring/early summer.

Easton area had some heavy rain this morning. Wet here at work and ditches have water in them. At my house- about 7 drops.

The latest edition of the CanSIPS was discussed pretty extensively a couple weeks ago itt when it came out. The advertised Nino evolution from early Fall through winter looks quite interesting for our region. Couple more weeks until the next edition.

High of 78 here.

The 6z GFS depiction early next week would work for some decent and more widespread rain across the area. Instead of the vorticity lobes passing to our north and focusing the forcing in PA and northward, some upper level energy digs just to our south and puts our area in a better spot for precip.

Looks like some chances here and there over the next week for parts of the region, but probably not a widespread significant event. There will be haves and have nots. It's that time of year though.

Ended up with 0.21" total.

Getting pretty close here. Need some significant rain in the next week, or I will be dumping gallons of water into the soil. Grass will be toast anyway regardless, but all the plants are a pretty big investment.

.08" Last chance coming across the bay over the next hour per radar. A damn quarter inch would salvage something.

Looks like 3"+ per radar estimates.

I was up your way over the weekend and it is super dry there. Grass looked brown and dormant.

Rain shields up here. Next to nothing. Places a few miles to my west got clobbered. Same over towards DE. Oh well.

The STJ is generally weak during summer- just don't have the temp gradient that exists in winter. The midlatitudes get pretty hot, esp over land masses. The emerging Nino plus lowering sun angle moving into Fall and winter should jack up the southern stream. Juiced up flow and rain chances for our region in summer usually come courtesy of HP in the western Atlantic, combined with cold fronts that manage to press far enough southeastward.

It gets no credit now if we whiff again. WPC will be wetter next update