CAPE

Somehow it lost its way after HH Thursday. This will be the run where the GFS gets its mind right again.

Come on Americans.. you can do it.

Yeah the CMC ens was beautiful.

lol how sad. Same here.

Snow on the beaches again. Just looked at Rehoboth Beach Cam. Coming down good there.

Basically just snow tv here. Had a period with some decent sized flakes and it started to stick in shaded areas, then went back to super light stuff. Radar doesn't look too encouraging, unless further south.

Some seriously perfect timing wrt to the NS energy overtop. Not too behind like the GFS to tug it NW, or out in front. Just right to let it track underneath, with enough space to not dampen the wave. Not very cold, but the thermals are likely going to be an issue for this period.

Sold. Close the curtains on winter after that.

Some small flakes in the air here now. 34.

See my previous post. Too broad-brush to say the 'NAO/50-50' are causing suppression, when it is really the timing/location of a specific piece of energy associated with what's going out west that is the primary problem.

The vortex over Hudson, which was ejected from the digging trough out west as the Aleutian ridge reamplifies, is a primary 'issue' and will influence the outcome. The 0z Euro phases it into the low off the Maritimes, creating a consolidated 50-50 low. It is the only run lately that gets that vorticity into a position where it won't negatively impact the southern shortwave. On the GFS that energy tries to phase in behind, and tugs the low NW. The CMC and ICON have that vorticity shifting east towards the Maritimes, so it is just out in front of the southern wave a bit and interferes by placing it in the wake. Imo the 0z EURO idea would probably work- get that energy eastward into the 50-50 space sooner.

It's all random wave interactions and timing. Has to work out just right for our dreams to come true.

The block (ridge and 50-50) is just getting established there. But if it makes you feel better, sure it's the NAO. At least you have something tangible to point to for your suppression fears.

That's not what's happening though. There is a parade of vorts across Canada being spit off from the massive trough digging out west again. The one over Hudson Bay is spinning off vorticity lobes. With all this chaos, odds are the NS is going to destructively interact with the southern shortwave in some form- whether tugging it too far NW or dropping the hammer on top. The 0z Euro has the case where all that junk is cleared out and consolidates into a 50-50 with HP behind it. That would work. It probably won't hold either. This isn't a classic NAO block set up at this point, and it is being hindered by the hostile Pacific. As PSU said, lots of timing and luck needed for this to work out

Once you learn to interpret Chuck speak, there is often some good stuff embedded in his posts.

Suppression.

Looking ahead to Chuck's window/our Hail Mary period, pretty nice h5 look on the EPS. Anomalously cold too.

This is NS interaction in this pattern. Given the outcome now isn't good for our area, not sure more interaction/phase from that location would work out any better for our region.

Getting 'constructive' NS interaction in this pattern won't be easy. Check the PNA lately? The Pacific remains horrific for our purposes. It's effing snowing at relatively low elevations in S CA. The NAO is basically just giving us some semblance of a chance here.

Outside of a flat/weak strung out wave sliding ots, a healthy wave being 'suppressed' south is the last thing we have had to be concerned about this winter. Could it happen? Sure. We fail prolifically in every way possible. But in a winter where we have seen literally nothing but storms cutting NW, it seems odd to worry over congrats NC.

28 here this morning. Looking forward to my snow TV. Forecast here is for less than an inch. Looks like a better chance for an inch+ SE of here if low level temps cooperate.

Look at the difference between the 0z Euro and 6z GFS at h5 in southern Canada. Most of the energy in that vortex over the southern tip of Hudson Bay phases in to the developing 50-50 low on the Euro, while on the GFS it stays there and does us no favors. CMC gets it out of the way somewhat differently, with some of it getting absorbed into the trough digging southward in western Canada, and the rest of the energy shifts into the 50-50 location. Ends up with a similar look to the Euro up top.

Verbatim the 0z EPS looks pretty good for the NW burbs.

The 0z Euro improved in just about every way. One thing I have not liked overall on guidance is too many vortices flying around across Canada, with a lack of high pressure from the GLs into eastern Canada. The 0z Euro depicts a more distinct NAO block and a well defined 50-50 low, and finally some HP showing up in eastern Canada aided by the converging/confluent flow into the 50-50 vortex. Ofc there is also a stronger, more distinct southern shortwave this run. Much better look up top aloft and at the surface.