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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    When we have a threat in the LR I typically pore over the 0z ens runs early in the morning with my coffee. This morning things looked quite good for snow especially from your area westward. Lets see where we are on the means after tonight's 0z runs.
  2. CAPE
    There is nothing really useful about this "block". Its orientation is shifted 90 degrees from ideal, as it links with the amped ridge in front of that monster trough. Essentially a full latitude ridge.
  3. CAPE
    Nothing is etched in stone. My observations are specific to this run/recent runs. In general though, everyone has seen this movie play out over and over this winter and it always ends the same. Thus the pessimism. Pattern is somewhat more favorable, and given all the chaos, there is no reason to think the timing and degree of interaction between the key waves is nailed down by guidance 7 days out. Plenty of time.
  4. CAPE
    There's time at least lol. Could happen.
  5. CAPE
    Everything is harder with an active NS, and we still are in a Nina. We really fucking need a Mod Nino with sustained NA blocking next winter.
  6. CAPE
    Game over right here. The energy associated with that vorticity lobe stuck between/underneath the 2 blocks has to dig south, and it phases in.
  7. CAPE
    It's really not good at that point. There are variations in character/orientation with all these indices, and they don't exist in isolation. The NS is very chaotic in this pattern- so many wave interactions.
  8. CAPE
    On earlier runs the NS energy rotating down underneath the ridge bridge was largely able to escape west- absorbed by the Pacific trough, while a healthy piece of vorticity ejected eastward. Recent runs have a more amped EPO ridge, forcing most of that energy southward, significantly amplifying the trough and inhibiting a wave from ejecting.
  9. CAPE
    With weed a drink or 2 will do. Need food at the ready.
  10. CAPE
    Already done. George was correct.
  11. CAPE
    This was the right choice. HHH!
  12. CAPE
  13. CAPE
    Lets look back a few runs on the GFS before more energy was dumping into the western trough in response the the amplifying EPO ridge because it cant escape west. What do you notice?
  14. CAPE
    Yes. Only on the weekends.
  15. CAPE
    As I mentioned in my earlier post, that area of low pressure off the Canadian Maritimes is a dominant feature, and the exact strength and position of that as the wave approaches will have an influence. A more suppressed track is possible.
  16. CAPE
    Inverted trough look.
  17. CAPE
    Just sharing a couple thoughts on the latest ens runs. I haven't had time the past couple days to weenie out over every run with you guys. You such a deb
  18. CAPE
    Nice signal across ens guidance for an interior snow event at this point. Looks awesome for the western highlands. The -NAO weakening and retrograding/morphing into a Hudson Bay ridge may allow for low pressure to track further NW than we want, especially if it amplifies further west like the latest Euro run. The exact location/strength of the vortex off the Maritimes will have a major influence on the track as the wave moves towards the east coast.
  19. CAPE
    Not the worst look I've seen on a surface map for a period of interest.
  20. CAPE
    Have to admit, I skated past true failure here. A big disappointment based on the forecast, but still low end warning event. But yeah, an overall fail for the region as a whole and up there with the worst.
  21. CAPE
    Not bad. Definitely an improved signal for frozen around the 11th in our area compared to recent runs.
  22. CAPE
    HH a good run for places south of us. Usual adjustment.. We good! Eh, congrats NE.
  23. CAPE
    Outside of that we have had offshore coastal lows produce big snow for southern/eastern areas when we have had a mechanism for legit cold(-EPO/PNA) and complete absence of SE ridge. Might be a new normal or base state embedded in there somewhere.
  24. CAPE
    Your post made it. Epic. Now we can all gleefully glide into ultimate failure and put this wretched thing to rest.
  25. CAPE
    Plenty of spread among the EPS members on low location for the 11-12th period. Not the strongest signal I have ever seen for a favorable MA coastal low track. Best signal for frozen in this window is to our north, again. Still time.
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