CAPE

Anyone bother checking the 12z JMA? Ji? @mitchnick

Not every ridge is a SER. I don't see a SER in the LR on the EURO op. Once again the fundamental problem(on that run) is a trough digging out west. That means there will be a ridge to the east.

This is the period I have liked, just beyond whatever happens on the 11-12th. Pretty close on the heels, but a nice look here on the CMC mean. Fresh cold air in place. That's what us lowlanders like to see.

The GFS op is still phasing in too much of the NS energy associated with the vort lobe in western Canada. The GEFS has been depicting a similar degree of interaction, but backed off some at 0z. The end result was improved. Subtle differences in these wave interactions make big differences later on with the outcome. Long way to go.

The dominant feature in a Nina is the NE Pacific ridge. The orientation/location can vary, dependent on multiple variables including the strength and character of the NPAC jet. Most of this winter it locked into one of the worst possible configurations for the MA and SE. Last winter it was more variable. January was a favorable period as the mean trough shifted eastward, so it was a pretty cold month. Also delivered 3 snowstorms, but bad luck for NW areas in 2 of those.

Helluva wave break. We would at least be chilly for mid month.

Live vicariously. Watch snow happen in the places that are actually getting winter. I'm watching Truckee get pummeled again. 2 ft. a few days ago. Looks like another 2 feet into tomorrow.

Outside of a Nino, we need a pattern that can deliver legit cold, and hope it isn't dry. We have just experienced the antithesis.

So yeah, enough with the NAM posts trying to glean anything useful on the lead up to a threat that's a week out lol.

It's an urban myth.

12km NAM is useless, even when it is in its wheelhouse. It's going to be junked in the near future.

They look nearly identical at h5 and the surface. The sensible weather outcome on both the 0z and 12z ens runs for this region are essentially the same. Did I just repeat myself? Feels like I just repeated myself.

Almost identical to 0z. womp womp lowlands, congrats western highlands, NW burbs still in the game.

12z EPS is essentially the same as 0z for our region.

The shade of blue(red) indicates the height anomaly for a given area.

The general answer is we need anomalous cold given the average high temps are well into the 50s.

Rain was pretty underwhelming here. 0.27" according to my gauge. I'll take it. Rather be on the dry side this time of year if it isn't going to snow.

Still a week out, and its very unlikely the guidance has this nailed down with all the moving parts. If the general idea holds or degrades over the next couple days, then it is probably time to focus on the week of the 13th.

If the GFS idea is more correct, the low tracks well NW into the GLs and becomes occluded. As the trough becomes established in the east there will be additional energy dropping into the trough. Might be a sneaky chance of something for the 14-15th. eta- 6z GEFS is suggesting a bit of a following wave for the 14th.

The 0z and 6z GEFS have trended towards the op run, with significant NS energy dropping south as the Pac ridge amplifies, digging a trough out west. The HH GEFS yesterday still had a pretty favorable look, with much of that energy captured by the Pacific trough, allowing a wave to eject east. The EPS is better, but we probably need a bit more help with the NAO than is currently modeled. I want to see some wicked confluence to our NE. As things stand now, the lowlands can forget about significant frozen. The interior/western highlands are favored, and the NW burbs are somewhere in between the 2.

This winter has been a ratter, and it is getting late. Ji is right that there is a pretty big difference between getting a storm on March 11 vs. having to wait a week. It can work out, but the hostile for snow curve is getting pretty steep especially for the lowlands.

Carve out the avocado trough, then get a wave riding the thermal boundary. That's money. Too bad its basically Spring by then lol.

Avocado cold!

When we have a threat in the LR I typically pore over the 0z ens runs early in the morning with my coffee. This morning things looked quite good for snow especially from your area westward. Lets see where we are on the means after tonight's 0z runs.

There is nothing really useful about this "block". Its orientation is shifted 90 degrees from ideal, as it links with the amped ridge in front of that monster trough. Essentially a full latitude ridge.