CAPE

The best signal for a storm with some frozen in our area on the 0z ens runs is March 11-13 period. Fairly weak signal overall, but it's there. Strongest on the GEPS.

That might not even be meteorologically possible.

I keep it simple. The atmospheric longwave pattern is made up of ridges and troughs, the existence of which serve to maintain heat balance and conservation of absolute vorticity. The phase of the pattern will shift(and change the relative location of the troughs and ridges) largely due to drivers such as ENSO. At this point I still think the SE ridge is largely an effect- in this case the downstream result of a persistent upstream Aleutian ridge/-PNA blocking pattern in the Pacific. There are possibly other influences that contribute to the seemingly 'easy development' and persistence of the SER in recent winters. Not to be discussed in this here thread though.

You know I always run with the means at range. I'll also go with consensus. Doesn't always work lol.

Thanks shitty Pacific. What a way to wreck a perfectly good NAO block.

I have become a believer in the Ji rule.

Different, but not necessarily better. Not crazy about the look at hr 222.

We really need the Euro's superior resolution/computing power/diverse array of data assimilation, or whatever the fuck supposedly makes it better, to be right in this case. Not that the GFS is awful, but we don't have a lot of time here.

Baby steps out west. Still huge differences.

Eh, still worlds apart from the Euro.

18z GFS depicts a bit less interaction out west with the Pac trough. Western US energy might eject eastward quicker.

I mean, its not impossible. As I have said, give me one solid 6" snow event that sticks around for a day and I'll be content after this disaster of a winter.

Been pretty busy with work today so catching up a bit. The advertised look on the EPS into mid month is impressive. I like how it maintains a -NAO.

Tenfidy Barrel-aged stout for HH. Lets go!

We talkin bout.. control runs? lol not sure this is a good sign.

It picked up on more interaction with the western trough/NS energy and the resulting NW track for the March 3-4 storm first.

The model King thing is so dumb lol.

Signal has been there for that period on the EPS. Maybe it will go back to the big dog look at had the other day.

It drops the avocado. Cold but not much precip.

6z GEFS EPS still has a signal for around the 11th

29 with freezing fog. In like a lamb though.

High of 54 here today. Finally got nice out after noon. The first half of the day was cloudy and dreary.

In that panel the location/amplitude/orientation of the NPac ridge is 'unfavorable', placing a trough out west. A trough out west requires there to be a ridge downstream, but in this case it isn't really a SER. A favorable NA(block) can suppress/flatten an eastern ridge to a degree. Because the trough is a bit further NW in this case, the ridge is shifted a bit more westward, and in conjunction the NA block is inhibiting the ridge from extending to the east coast.

Our hopes and dreams are completely dependent on seemingly random atmospheric wave interactions and timing. Total chaos. Not a very fruitful hobby when the one desired outcome has such a low probability of occurring in this area lol.

There are subtle differences between the models wrt the wave interactions in the Pacific- specifically the character of the deepening trough north of Hawaii and differences in the EPAC ridge as it shifts northward from its initial position with a positively tilted orientation. On the GEFS the trough north of Hawaii captures the western US trough as the Pac ridge stretches/ retrogrades more westward towards the Aleutians. This inhibits the western US trough from progressing eastward. On the EPS there is a bit of a ridge east of the Hawaii trough that links with the Pac ridge building more northward over AK. This allows the western US trough to escape and progress eastward. Who knows which one is more correct.