CAPE

Hate, if you want to hate If it keeps you safe If it makes you brave Take, if you want a slice If you want a piece If it feels alright Don't come over here And piss on my gate Save it just keep it off my wave Keep it off my wave Keep it off my wave, my wave Keep it off my wave Keep it off my wave Keep it off my wave, my wave

It's close to something better. Have a feeling when all is said and done all 3 of these waves will have been closer than any of the predecessors, but probably not enough, esp for the lowlands. Would be a fitting end lol.

Very subtle spatial and timing differences between the key pieces of energy compared to 12z. The upshot is the southern piece of vorticity is a tad flatter/further south, so the area of precip is focused souther. And a tad colder. Still seems like this may be on its way to something (different). Gotta watch the timing/dig of the NS vort dropping in over MN.

Just had some weed AND poured a 120. I'll check it..

Not sure I would refer to that small ridge there with an odd orientation as a Baffin block lol. The low pressure showing up in the 50-50 region is a function of the progressive nature of the pattern, and the way lows are tracking. It isn't a real block with a quasi stationary 50-50 sitting there, but rather a parade of lows tracking through that space and continuing on into the NA. There really isn't a 'blocked flow'. Not a bad pattern and it could still work with luck and timing (and a little cold air). At least that's the way I see it.

And the HH drunks Location has an impact obviously. When I post I generally aim to give an objective synopsis for our region as a whole, based on what I glean from latest guidance. Not crazy about the prospects for frozen for eastern areas though.

After looking at the latest ops/ens means, my thoughts haven't really changed from yesterday at this time. The weekend deal looks pretty bleak for frozen outside of far N and W. The secondary low is too little/late- it would need to get going closer to the coast. The pattern is actually progressive despite all the talk of blocking. For the following wave next week, it will likely take a stronger low closer to the coast to involve colder air, plus stronger lift/dynamic cooling. Even then it would be precarious for the lowlands. Still potential and plenty of uncertainty in the evolution at this point. For now the signal for significant frozen on the means through mid next week continues to be to our north, and the western higher terrain at our latitude.

The 'Worm' moon looks incredible right now.

That's a KU on the 6z GFS.

Below average in mid March is in the 40s for highs. Not sure the models were ever advertising much below. What's more important is the setup- need to have a feed of cold enough/dry air and some serious lift. Dynamic + evaporational cooling.

Happy Spring.

The weekend storm threat is fading fast unless the coastal gets going sooner. At this point guidance generally depicts it deepening too far off the coast for our area. GEFS is closest, but as of now would be a nice event for NE PA and NE. The following wave for the 14th also has the look of late/offshore development on the ens means, but more time for that to adjust. Needless to say we are going to be working with marginal cold and heading into mid March, so at this point a favorable track and a stronger, more dynamic low will probably be required to realize significant frozen in the lowlands.

Why post the control? The mean is a nice improvement.

The coastal low deepens a bit more on the 6z EPS, and a little colder with some precip still ongoing. Temps still very marginal outside of the usual places. If the low strengthens a bit closer to the coast, this scenario might be a bit more interesting.

'Colder' air availability will be improved and a better chance of a wave tracking underneath. I like the idea of a wave after the weekend thing, for early next week. eta- something like this. At this point there is a signal across guidance, but it would probably be on the weaker side /tend to develop more offshore. Thermals are better behind whatever happens this weekend.

At this point the weekend storm does not look like it will come together in such a way that the combo of enough cold air and precip will coincide. Far north/west areas obviously have the best shot at some snow.

Pretty strong signal for the 18-20th.

0z EPS wave one The following wave is mostly south and off the coast.

Looks like it might fucking snow in your yard. Sorry.

Better late than never? Or maybe just better never lol.

Yeah esp the CMC ens. I made a post about it.

Verbatim HH GEFS is pretty decent for Mount PSU northward/westward.

18z GFS a disaster? Not seeing digital blue over your house through mid month.

That's a low forming along the baroclinic boundary. Pretty cold air hitting the Gulf stream.