CAPE

It is looking decidedly more winter-like for next week, with colder air pressing southeastward and placing the thermal boundary clearly in a more favorable position for the first time since probably late December. We have tracked this period for many days and it is now on the doorstep. My expectations were not for some super juiced up wave with a foot+ of snow, but rather a few chances at light to moderate events- we normally need a few shots in any favorable window to hit on one. Signal has been there on the means, and the op runs are now in a range where we can get a better idea on the specifics of how this will evolve. A warning level snow event looks possible next week somewhere in the MA. Hopefully we see a flush hit right across our region.

That's the nature of this setup with the TPV sliding eastward. The exact position and timing of that feature in conjunction with the disturbances moving east underneath is everything.

Wave 2 is solid on the 6z GFS but the heavier snow is south of DC over to the lower Delmarva. Fringed near the PA line.

Too much NS vorticity right on top so not much of a chance this run.

0z EPS generally favors areas to our north(PA-SNE) for frozen for the Feb 1 wave, but cold presses south during the period while precip is falling so some frozen through our area. It all looks pretty light. Next wave for late next week has colder air in place, with some snow suggested through much of MD and VA but again looks light, with heavier precip further south. 0z GEFS is similar- for both waves the better precip is to our south in NC, with some frozen on the northern edge of the precip shield. Wave 2 has snow focused more to our south over VA and N NC. Again, looks light. The theme for next week- modest waves, moisture overrunning colder air, with a couple 1-3 maybe 2-4 chances on the means.

Still some significant spread among the members wrt wave timing/location/depth of cold/ptype for next week.

I was kinda leaving out that part.

Love me some high gravity ales!

Not hating it at all given the GFS bias of crushing cold southward. Not likely happening, esp not this winter.

Yup a bit too heavy with the TPV. Nice cold HP positioned well for places south.

Squashed in the wake of the NS vort. Timing and placement is super critical with progressive flow.

Half way through one of these.

Sounds like a reach..

My thinking has been the latter half of Feb into March has potential, but the early Feb window should be good enough for 2-3 chances to legit get on the board(beyond a dusting). Because the pattern is so progressive with so many moving parts, it isn't very likely the same locations will get hit twice with frozen. At least one of the waves will probably dampen to nothing. Just give me one to get on the board properly. The initial wave around Feb 1 probably has the best chance as it looks now.

Agreed the pattern leading up to mid month is looking more favorable on the latest EPS and CMC ens runs, and rolling it forward gives hope for the latter third of the month. That said, I think the first week of Feb still offers a couple chances for a light to moderate event. Not a big storm pattern- never has been imo. I would be thrilled with a modest, well timed wave for 2-4.

Not sure I wanna know what that grayish stuff is.

lol

Not a bad place to be a week out on an op run considering the winter tendencies.

He is mostly right. The depicted look in the LR on the 6z GEFS isn't very good. I suppose in the interest of keeping hopes and dreams alive, positive vibes, etc (theme of the thread) there are other ways to say it. I did it in a post earlier by saying to root for the advertised look on the EPS and GEPS in the LR, rather than saying the GEFS looks like shit lol. That said, Chuck's post doesn't bother me at all.

Already been discussed. Chances for frozen on the means increases Feb 2-3 timeframe.

Root for the EPS and CMC ens in the LR heading towards mid month. Respectable h5 look with ridging along the west coast( neutral/slightly +PNA) and up over AK.

Yeah March of 18 was a nice event here. If you look at the mean (without the anomalies) for the period leading up you can see more clearly there was a bit of a ridge out west though. PNA looks neutral/slightly positive.

The second wave is in alignment with what the ens means have been advertising as the initial chance for something other than rain for days now. This place would be a lot less bipolar if folks paid less attention/didn't react to every model cycle of the operational runs at long leads. eta- the ensembles will have some run-to- run variability, but it won't be the wild swings that we see with the higher res operational models. The basic idea is to use them as a tool to reduce the uncertainty in the long range for a given outcome at a specific time.

We are in the range now where the operational models are beginning to flash the potential for the period beginning early February that has been depicted on the ensembles for several days. Currently the means suggest the chances for frozen increase around Feb 2nd.

6z GFS has more confluence to our north with the timing of the NS shortwave, as a bit of energy ejects eastward out of the southwest. Brings a band of snow across the area.