CAPE

Decent thunderstorm just moved through with a super close lightning strike. Tripped a breaker. Wasn't expecting that this morning.

lol

From Mount Holly- While the sunshine Saturday afternoon may seem like a good sign of improving weather, it will actually only provide a false sense of security. We are expecting sufficient daytime heating in the afternoon to then result in convective development along and just ahead of the trailing cold front that is expected to sweep through late Saturday afternoon and early evening. Furthermore, severe weather parameters are looking favorable as convection develops. Abundant shear and sufficient instability along with favorable lapse rates will overlap across the region, leading to a risk for severe thunderstorms. At the moment, the greatest threat remains damaging winds within a thunderstorm as heavy rain within the line of storms will mix down the strong low-level winds, creating a line of strong winds as the front moves through. Forecast soundings also suggest a brief window of time when wind profiles will veer ahead of the frontal boundary, thus an isolated embedded supercell or a tornado or two is certainly possible across the area.

Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD- A robust cold front is expected to push southeastward through our region on Saturday evening. It should bring another round of showers with thunderstorms. Mixed layer CAPE values are expected to be marginally unstable, mainly in the 250 to 500 J/Kg range. However, it will be a fairly dynamic system and any thunderstorms have the potential to easily mix down some locally damaging wind gusts.

Os managed to hang on for a 10-9 opening day win over the saux.

It has been quite the winter in the high terrain of California.

Black Flag Barrel-Aged Cuvée for HH. Delicious.

Torch

At least we will be chilly and rainy.

Sipping on an LTO High Rye, a Barrel aged Imperial Stout from Ten Eyck. Outstanding.

Decent amount of rain fell overnight. Total since Thursday is 0.92". I'll take a short walk later and see how the wetland is looking.

Pretty steady rain falling once again the last hour or so. Up to 0.60" since yesterday morning.

0.48" of rain since yesterday morning. Most in quite a while. Cooler day with temp around 47.

73 here. High for the day. Feels a tad humid. There was a big lightning strike in the town of Ridgely this morning apparently. Stopped at the local hardware store on my way home and they were only taking cash/checks because it knocked out Comcast service. They said it was like a bomb went off. I was in Easton and only heard some rumbles in the distance.

I deactivated my WB account a week ago. I'll reactivate it for Dec to track our initial snow threats with a CP based Nino established.

The probability maps have looked just like that all winter. Now it's Spring. Why bother lol.

low of 22 here.

It is pretty clear where my mosquitoes come from lol. Hoping it stays as is, but as usual I have my knee boots ready, and 5 pounds of this- https://www.domyown.com/altosid-prog-mosquito-larvicide-p-243.html

Down to 39 here after hitting 40 last hour. Cold, dry air mass. Mild and (maybe)wet coming in a few days.

I have plenty of firewood left for next winter.

Any good thunderstorms showing up? Another high probability fail for this region. Heat and wind we do!

From Mount Holly morning AFD- FIRE WEATHER... A dry cold front has passed through overnight. Humidity only recovered to around 40 to 50 percent overnight, and is already decreasing early this morning from the Delaware River northwestward. Colder and drier air will spread into the region today, with high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s, and surface dew points dropping well into the single digits. West- northwest winds will be sustained 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts much of today. Min RH values this afternoon will range from 20 to 25 percent. Additionally, 10-hour fuel moisture at most area RAWS were in the 7 to 9 percent range Saturday evening, with little recovery overnight, and may tend slightly drier this afternoon. After coordination with fire weather partners on Saturday, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for our New Jersey zones, while a Special Weather Statement is in effect for our Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware zones for Sunday.

Here are a couple shots of the seasonal woodland wetland on the back of my property. This whole area is normally under a foot or so of water by mid February, as the water table breaks the surface. As of now just one small puddle, and most of the area isn't even muddy. I ordered 100 bucks of larvicide as usual, as one or 2 soaking rains over the next couple weeks will get it going. It normally dries up by late Spring with warmer/longer days and increase in evapotranspiration.

Is anyone actually still tracking snow? We can't even get a rain storm lately. My seasonal wetland/mosquito breeding ground is barely damp, so I am ok with dry this time of year. I was just outside watering some of the newer trees/plants I put in during early Fall though. That 0.01" of rain last night didn't do much.

Exactly. Emotional expectations based on a specific desired outcome by a weenie attempting to interpret a D10 mean aren't really relevant.